Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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995
FXUS65 KPUB 261900
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1200 PM MST Sun Feb 26 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 347 AM MST Sun Feb 26 2017

Weak upper wave dropping south through CO early this morning, but
very little weather of note with it except for a few flurries over
the higher peaks of the Sangres and eastern San Juan mountains. For
today, wave moves south of the state by afternoon, leaving only a
few flurries lingering over the higher peaks along the Continental
Divide. At the surface, weak nly surge drops south through the
plains this morning, then washes out near the Arkansas river by late
afternoon, allowing winds to return to weak sely by early evening.
Surge should limit the potential for gusty wly winds and high fire
danger somewhat, though srn I-25 corridor and lee slopes of the srn
Sangres could see increasing west winds late as surface pressure
begins to fall east of Trinidad in the late afternoon. Given little
change in air mass, max temps today will vary little from
yesterday`s readings. Tonight, mid and upper level flow gradually
turn more swly in response to upper trough moving into the Great
Basin. Should see an increase in moisture along the Continental
Divide late, with a few -shsn possible, mainly after 06z. Lower
elevations will remain dry with increasing clouds and winds as lee
surface trough deepens. Min temps will thus run a little milder than
the past few nights, especially along and west of I-25.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 347 AM MST Sun Feb 26 2017

It looks like an active start to the work week with warmer and
quiet conditions as the week progresses. Models are in decent
agreement and ensemble spreads are not overly large in the
extended.

Monday and Tuesday...an upper level storm system is forecast to
move out of the Great Basin and across Colorado to start off the
week. Southwesterly flow will increase ahead of the storm system
with gusty winds expected to spread across southern Colorado.
Humidity values are expected to fall Monday afternoon, especially
along the I-25 corridor, southeast along the New Mexico border.
Critical fire weather conditions will likely exist through Monday
afternoon and fire weather highlights may be needed. Over the
mountains, snow will spread into the Continental Divide Monday
morning and continue through Tuesday evening. Snow will likely be
moderate to heavy at times with accumulations of nearly 10 to 14 inches
with locally higher amounts possible, especially over the San
Juan range. A cold front will drop south across the plains Tuesday
afternoon with models in good agreement developing a band of
showers Tuesday evening. Snow will initially be confined to areas
of the Palmer Divide, while areas across the Plains transitioning
to snow as cold air advects southward. This will be a quick shot
of snow for the Plains, with the band clearing south into New
Mexico by Wednesday morning. Accumulations at this time look to be
less than an inch.

Wednesday through Saturday...the upper level trough will lift
northeast on Wednesday with broad westerly zonal flow developing
for the remainder of the week. A few lingering mountain showers
will dissipate Wednesday morning. Once these showers dissipate,
expect dry conditions through Saturday across the region.
Temperatures will also begin to warm. The coolest day will be
Wednesday with highs in the 40s, however, 60s to near 70 are
forecast by Friday and Saturday.  Mozley

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1151 AM MST Sun Feb 26 2017

Isolated snow showers will be possible along the Continental
Divide through this evening, resulting in spotty MVFR, IFR or LIFR
conditions. Snowfall will ramp up along the Divide after midnight
and become widespread on Monday, resulting in widespread IFR to
LIFR flight conditions across the Divide. Scattered snows showers
could reach the eastern mountain ranges late tonight and Monday
resulting in areas of MVFR, IFR or LIFR conditions but not nearly
as widespread as along the Divide.

For the KCOS, KPUB and KALS TAF sites, VFR is expected next 24
hours. Snow showers are expected to remain confined to the higher
terrain.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Watch from Monday morning through Tuesday evening
for COZ058-060-061-066-068.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...LW



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