Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 141733

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1033 AM MST Sun Jan 14 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 444 AM MST Sun Jan 14 2018

A weak disturbance has brought some clouds and light snow to
northeast CO, and some of the clouds with this system are also
moving over portions of the southeast plains.  This disturbance will
move out of the area later this morning and skies acrs southeast and
south central CO should be sunny or mostly sunny thru the day. Above
average temps can be expected today, with highs in the 50s acrs the
southeast plains, in the 40s in the San Luis Valle, and in the mid
40s to lower 50s in the Upper Arkansas River Valley.

Tonight and upper low moves into northern MN, with the associated
upper trof covering the Dakotas and into the central plains states.
This system will send a front into eastern CO late tonight, bringing
north to northeast winds along with increasing low level mstr.
Toward morning we should see a lot of low clouds moving south and
westward acrs the southeast CO plains, along with the possibility of
decreasing visibilities in fog.  Some light flurries may also
develop over the far eastern areas toward morning.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 444 AM MST Sun Jan 14 2018

Longer term meteorological issues continue to be the potential
for unsettled conditions over eastern portions of the CWA from
Monday into Monday night and then over the majority of the
forecast district from Friday evening into Saturday.

Latest longer term computer simulations, PV/Precipitable water
analysis and forecast model soundings still suggest that unsettled
and colder conditions will occur over eastern sections of the
forecast district from Monday into Monday night as moist upslope
flow(driven by strong 1053 MB surface high...located over western
North Dakota) impacts eastern sections of the forecast district.

In addition, an upper disturbance will impact the forecast
district from Monday into Monday night. As mentioned in a
previous discussion, the combination of these features will allow
colder temperatures as well as primarily light snow and areas of
fog to develop over many eastern locations from Monday into
Monday night.

At this time, it still appears the locations that have the
highest potential on experiencing a few inches of accumulating
snow with this event will be over portions of EL Paso and Teller
counties as well as over the Wet mountains and the Sangre de
Cristo mountains.

Drier conditions in combination with continued below seasonal
mid-January temperatures over eastern sections of the forecast
district are anticipated Tuesday.

Then, continued dry conditions as well as warmer temperatures
are then projected over the majority of the forecast district from
Wednesday into Friday as dry northwesterly to zonal upper flow
interacts with eastern Colorado lee-side surface troughing.

A return to unsettled and colder conditions is then projected,
initially over western sections Friday evening and then over the
majority of the forecast district Saturday as next upper
disturbance and healthy north-northeasterly surface surge impacts
the region.

The highest potential for gusty winds during the longer term
should be noted from Thursday night into at least Saturday.

Also, coolest temperatures during the longer term should be
realized Monday and Tuesday, while warmest conditions should occur
from Thursday into Friday.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1025 AM MST Sun Jan 14 2018

...Arctic airmass will bring LIFR conditions to KPUB and KCOS by
early tomorrow morning...

For KALS...VFR next 24 hours with light winds.

For KCOS and KPUB...

VFR and light winds rest of today...this evening...and early
tonight. A arctic front will cross the region later tonight (during
the 08-10 UTC time frame) and this will cause the winds to shift
to the northeast and then east. Much colder air will quickly move
into the region and low cigs along with light snow will develop.
around sunrise (13-14UTC) tomorrow LIFR conditions (cigs) will
likely be in place. Low cigs/-sn will last through 18 UTC.




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