Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS65 KPUB 302112
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
312 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

CURRENTLY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THIS AFTERNOON.  THE PLAINS
REMAIN DRY WITH WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND 90S.

TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AS
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.  EXPECT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET.  THE PRIMARY THREATS
WILL BE LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND WIND GUSTS.  ONE OR TWO
CELLS COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL.  LACK OF STEERING FLOW SHOULD KEEP
CONVECTION TIED TO THE TERRAIN WITH THE PLAINS REMAINING DRY.  THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE NORTH IS FORECAST TO DROP A COLD FRONT SOUTH
INTO THE PALMER DIVIDE BY LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WHILE A
DISTURBANCE IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW MOVES INTO WESTERN COLORADO.

MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTH
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS SHIFTING WINDS TO NORTHEASTERLY BY EARLY
AFTERNOON.  MEANWHILE AN UPPER DISTURBANCE IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.  EXPECT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT BY LATE MORNING OVER THE MOUNTAINS.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL
SPREAD EAST INTO THE PALMER DIVIDE...AND EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  MODELS VARY ON WHERE THE HEAVIER
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...WITH THE PRIMARY FOCUS ON THE PALMER DIVIDE
OR POINTS NORTHWARD.  THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN COULD POSE FLASH FLOOD PROBLEMS OVER THE WALDO CANYON
BURN SCAR IF THE FURTHER SOUTH SOLUTIONS VERIFY.  THUNDERSTORMS
TOMORROW WILL BE CAPABLE OF LIGHTNING...GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ALONG
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND SMALL HAIL.  MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

CONVECTION WILL LINGER INTO MON EVENING MANY AREAS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE PLAINS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED NEAR THE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD MOVING
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ACTIVITY THEN WANES AFTER MIDNIGHT...THOUGH
A FEW -SHRA MAY LINGER OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS AREA REMAINS UNDER
THE MID-LEVEL MOIST PLUME. ON TUE...FRONT GRADUALLY WASHES
OUT...ALTHOUGH LEE SURFACE TROUGH REFORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AS SW
FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY INCREASES. WHILE LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
BE LACKING TUE AFTERNOON...STILL PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA...SO WILL KEEP A MENTION OF AT LEAST
ISOLATED TSRA MOST LOCATIONS...EVEN ACROSS THE ERN PLAINS. MAX
TEMPS TUES JUST A COUPLE DEGF LOWER OVER THE PLAINS...WHILE
MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS STAY UNCHANGED.

FOR WED INTO FRI...PACIFIC NW UPPER TROUGH GRADUALLY
DEEPENS...WHILE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE MIDWEST.
MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN SWLY ACROSS COLORADO THROUGH
THE PERIOD...KEEPING A MODEST STREAM OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE FLOWING
INTO THE REGION. WITH LOW LEVELS DRYING OUT ON THE
PLAINS...SUSPECT MOST CONVECTION WILL STAY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...THOUGH EVEN HERE COVERAGE WILL STAY MAINLY ISOLATED. MAX
TEMPS THROUGH FRI WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WELL ABOVE EARLY SEPT
NORMALS. FOR LATE FRI INTO NEXT WEEKEND...GFS REMAINS FAIRLY
AGGRESSIVE BRINGING A LARGE AREA OF SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE
NORTHWARD INTO CO...WHILE STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH
THROUGH THE PLAINS ON SUN. THIS SET-UP WOULD PRODUCE A FAIRLY WET
PERIOD FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN COLORADO...PERHAPS LINGERING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND...IS LESS ENTHUSED ABOUT
THE SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE...THOUGH IT DOES ALSO HAVE A FAIRLY
STRONG COLD FRONT ON SUN. FOR NOW...WILL BEGIN TO NUDGE UP POPS
SAT/SUN...AS IN EITHER CASE...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
INCREASING...THOUGH WON`T JUMP ON THE VERY WET GFS SOLUTION YET.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 246 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AT ALL THREE TERMINALS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT SHOULD NOT IMPACT KALS OR KCOS. AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTH OVER KCOS AND KPUB. THIS WILL BRING A NORTHERLY WIND
SHIFT ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.  MOZLEY

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...MOZLEY



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.