Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 071818
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1118 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1116 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

UPDATED TO INCREASE MAX TEMPS IN A FEW LOCATIONS TODAY. MADE SOME
MINOR CHANGES TO THE WIND FORECAST FOR TODAY. UPDATED THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FIRE WX GRIDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 901 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

UPDATED HIGHER ELEVATION WINDS FOR TODAY, AND UPDATED FIRE WX
GRIDS BASED ON 12Z NAM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

CURRENTLY...BRISK NW FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE ACROSS THE STATE AS AN
UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE WESTERN US. THIS BRISK FLOW IS
PROVIDING FOR STRONGER WINDS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AS WELL AS
EXTENSIVE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF THE E PLAINS. TEMPS
HAVE BEEN VERY MILD FOR MUCH OF THE E PLAINS THROUGH 345 AM...WITH
READINGS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...WESTERN UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD...KEEPING
COLORADO UNDER DRY BUT COOL N-NW FLOW ALOFT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN THE E PLAINS AND BACKING TOWARDS THE
SOUTHERN FRONT RANGE TODAY...WHICH IN TURN WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS IN
THE 40S...AND 30S FOR THE SLV. THE CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING SHOULD
START TO DISSIPATE EARLY AFTN...ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT. MOORE

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL GIVE WAY TO RIDGING ALOFT BY MID TO LATE
WEEK AS WESTERN U.S. UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MONDAY WILL START TO SEE A REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES...WITH MORE
PRONOUNCED WARMING EXPECTED FOR MID TO LATE WEEK AS H7 TEMPS REBOUND
BACK INTO THE 0 TO +4C RANGE.  THIS SHOULD YIELD TEMPS BACK IN THE
50S TO MID 60S FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH 30S AND 40S FOR THE
VALLEY AND MTN COMMUNITIES...A GOOD WARM UP BY FEB STANDARDS WITH
TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  SNOW PACK
SHOULD SEE SOME SUBSTANTIAL MELT OFF ACROSS THE PLAINS AND LOWER
VALLEY LOCATIONS.

UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CARRY THROUGH INTO THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEKEND.  NEXT TROF WILL EITHER GLANCE BY TO THE NORTH
ACCORDING TO THE GFS...OR DROP THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN ACCORDING TO
ECMWF.  EITHER WAY SUGGESTS COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY OR MONDAY
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING/TRACK OF THE SYSTEM.  GFS KEEPS FORECAST
LARGELY DRY WITH SYSTEM PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. ECMWF
SUGGESTS A LATTER FRONTAL TIMING WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR SNOW AS
SYSTEM DROPS INTO NM BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THIS IS A LONG WAY OUT SO
WILL HOLD THE COURSE TO MODEL BLENDS WHICH WILL MAINTAIN ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS...ASIDE FROM SOME MTN
SNOW SHOWERS ENTERING THE CONTDVD ON SUNDAY. -KT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1031 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...FORECAST MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOW CLOUDS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AT KPUB
AND KCOS...BUT THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME TO
INCLUDE A LOW CIG IN THE TERMINAL FORECAST.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...28


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