Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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000
FXUS65 KPUB 182150
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
250 PM MST TUE NOV 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MST TUE NOV 18 2014

...DRY AND A LITTLE WARMER FOR WEDNESDAY...

AS OF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...KPUB HAS BROKEN 50 DEGREES FOR THE
FIRST TIME IN A LITTLE WHILE. OTHER SPOTS OVER THE PLAINS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 40S....WHILE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS REMAIN IN THE 30S. HIGH
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM IN OVER ERN CO FROM THE NORTH...AND WV
IMAGERY STARTING TO SHOW SOME WAVE CLOUDS FORMING ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE.

STARTING TO SEE A FEW GUSTS IN THE 20+ KT RANGE UP NR KAFF...BUT IT
REMAINS PRETTY QUIET FOR THE MOST PART. EXPECT GUSTS ALONG THE SRN
FRONT RANGE TO INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE...AS THE
NOSE OF A 120 KT UPPER JET STREAK PUSHES INTO NE CO. BEST BET FOR
STRONG WINDS STILL LOOK TO BE FARTHER N...BUT EXPECT TO SEE SOME
GUSTY CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY NR CHEYENNE MT THIS EVE. OUR LOCAL WRF
IS SHOWING A POCKET OF 40+ KT WINDS THERE IN THE 01-04Z TIME FRAME.
OTHER HIGH RES MODELS ARE NOT NEARLY AS STRONG...AND THE WRF DOES
TEND TO EXAGGERATE SFC WINDS IN THESE MT WAVE EVENTS...SO NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING TOO EXTREME. BUT THE JET WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE
FOR SOME LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS ESPECIALLY IN THE FAVORED AREAS THIS
EVE.

TOMORROW...WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...AND IT WILL CONTINUE
TO BE DRY AS THE BIG TROUGH OUT EAST SHIFTS FARTHER TO THE
EAST...AND A SHARP UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE WEST. H7 TEMPS ARE A
COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AND WITH EVEN LESS SNOW
COVER...SEE NO REASON WHY WE SHOULD NOT GET AS WARM OR WARMER
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HAVE RAISED FORECAST TEMPS A BIT...TO BE CLOSER
TO THE HIGH END OF GUIDANCE CONSENSUS...BUT COULD REASONABLY END UP
EVEN HIGHER THAN FORECAST. OVERALL...A PRETTY PLEASANT DAY TO REALLY
PUT AN END TO OUR RECENT COLD SNAP. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MST TUE NOV 18 2014

ON THU...A SHORTWAVE TROF WL BE MOVING ACRS THE STATE.  THE FORECAST
MODELS SHOW LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PCPN...BUT THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW
OVR SOME OF THE MTN AREAS INTO THU EVENING...MAINLY ALONG THE
CONTDVD.  HIGH TEMPS ON THU SHOULD BE A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE.

FRI AND UPR TROF IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO AZ...CLOSING OFF A LOW OVR
THAT AREA.  THE UPR LOW AND TROF ARE THEN EXPECTED TO TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD ACRS NM AND INTO NERN MEXICO INTO SAT MORNING.  THE
SOUTHERN TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD RESULT IN LITTLE PCPN FOR THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT SOME ISOLD TO SCT PCPN WL BE POSSIBLE OVR SOME
OF THE MTN AREAS...MAINLY THE SRN MTNS.  HIGHS ON FRI SHOULD STILL
BE A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE.

EARLY SAT...THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD MAINLY HAVE DRY WEATHER BUT
THEN A NEW WEATHER SYSTEM WL MOVE INTO THE ROCKIES DURING THE DAY.
THIS SHOULD BRING SNOW TO THE CONTDVD.  AS THIS UPR TROF MOVES ACRS
THE STATE SAT NIGHT AND EARLY SUN...THE CONTDVD SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SEE THE BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS
OVER THE EASTERN MTNS.  THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME LIGHT PCPN ACRS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS.  HIGH TEMPS SAT OVR WRN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE COOLER THAN AVERAGE.  HOWEVER OVR THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS...TEMPS SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER...BUT SHOULD END
UP BEING AROUND AVERAGE.

AS THAT UPR TROF MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA FOR SUNDAY...MSTR IN
THE NW FLOW ALOFT BEHIND THE TROF WL CONTINUE TO BRING SNOW TO THE
CONTDVD...WITH POSSIBLY SOME ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS TO THE ERN MTNS THRU
MON. ON TUE A SHORTWAVE TROF IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM MT...INTO NE
CO AND NE...WHICH PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO EASTERN CO LATE IN THE
DAY.  AT THE SAME TIME...MSTR IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE CENTRAL CO MTNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MST TUE NOV 18 2014

STILL EXPECTING SOME GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE LEE OF THE ERN MT
RANGES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE RAMPART
RANGE AND VC CHEYENNE MT. SOME GUSTS IN THE 40-50 KT RANGE ARE
POSSIBLE THRU THE EVE. OTHERWISE...VFR WILL CONTINUE FOR THE TAF
SITES ALONG WITH EVEN LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED FOR WED AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER OUR AREA. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...ROSE



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