Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 181827
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1227 PM MDT Sat Mar 18 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 339 AM MDT Sat Mar 18 2017

An upper level ridge will be over the area today which will keep the
weather dry and very warm.  An increasing surface pressure gradient
over the far southeast plains today will lead to breezy southerly
winds in this area.  Also, the southerly winds are expected to bring
higher dew point air into the far eastern areas.  The models differ
with respect to the dew points over the far east areas, but they
should be in the 30s to lower 40s, while farther west, dew points
will mostly be in the teens to lower 20s.  Even though the winds
will be breezy over the far eastern areas this afternoon, RH values
will be high enough that the fire danger will not be high. Along
portions of the I-25 corridor this afternoon, especially in portions
of El Paso and Huerfano counties, the combination of low RH values
and gusty winds may reach, or come close to reaching critical
values.  However, these conditions should not be widespread enough
for fire weather highlights.

Temps will be very warm today and Alamosa could see another record
high.  Colo Spgs and Pueblo should be close to some very old record
highs. The records for today are as follows:  Alamosa 69 set in
2007, Colo Spgs 78 set in 1907, and Pueblo 85 degrees set in 1907.

Tonight the upper ridge will flatten over the area as a disturbance
moves through the flow to the north.  The weather will remain dry
and overnight lows should be warmer than average.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 339 AM MDT Sat Mar 18 2017

Models continue to struggle with the evolution and strength of an
upper level storm system mid to late week. The ECMWF and GFS have
had very little run to run consistency leading to lower confidence
as the storm moves across the area.

Sunday...an upper disturbance is forecast to pass to our north
helping to tighten the gradient across the region. The latest
model solutions have backed off a bit on the expected dangerous
fire weather conditions for portions of the area. Humidity value
are still expected to be very low, however, winds do not look to
be as strong as previous runs. Continued with the fire weather
watch for the Eastern Mountains, I-25 corridor out into the
Eastern Plains for late Sunday morning into the evening. Will let
the day shift get another look at the morning model runs before
upgrading all or portions of the fire weather watch. Temperatures
are expected to be quite warm with mid to upper 80s across the
Plains.

Monday and Tuesday...a cold front will have passed south across
the Plains by Monday morning, stalling as it tries to back into
the Eastern Plains. Temperatures on Monday will be slightly
cooler, but still reach into the upper 70s to lower 80s across
the Plains. Humidity values are expected to remain low and winds
will likely be breezy, especially over the southern I-25 corridor
Monday afternoon. This will lead to another day of elevated fire
weather concerns. The stalled cold front will begin to push
westward by Tuesday morning with temperatures dropping into the
upper 60s to lower 70s for afternoon highs. Weak upper level
energy embedded in the flow aloft may bring isolated to scattered
showers to the Continental Divide both days. There may be one or
two showers that move over the Palmer Divide into eastern
Colorado, but confidence is low that anything will fall over our
area.

Wednesday through Friday...models really having a hard time with
the evolution and strength of the upper level disturbance expected
to pass across the area. The ECMWF has flopped, going from an open
wave and northerly track, to a closed upper low over northeast New
Mexico and band of heavier precipitation across the Plains. The
GFS low development is much weaker and further north. This would
limit precipitation chances for the Plains. There has been very
little run to run consistency for either model and ensemble
spreads are quite high, leading to lower confidence in the
forecast. The Continental Divide should see rain and higher
elevation snowfall during this period, but how much remains in
question. As for the Plains, it all depends on where the storm
tracks and how strong it becomes...we could see a good dose of
rain/snow, or very little if anything.  Mozley

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1224 PM MDT Sat Mar 18 2017

VFR conditions are anticipated during the next 24 hours at all 3
taf sites; KPUB, KALS and KCOS.

Winds will be light tonight. For tomorrow, winds will be
generally from a west to southwest component at KCOS and KPUB,
with a few gusts to 20 knts possible.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
for COZ221-222-225>233-235.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...HODANISH



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