Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 251736
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1136 AM MDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 456 AM MDT MON AUG 25 2014

METEOROLOGICAL CONCERNS DURING THE SHORT-TERM INCLUDES
POPS(INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN FROM THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF EL
PASO...TELLER AND KIOWA COUNTIES) AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES AND
LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES.

MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE CWFA.  IN ADDITION...EARLY MORNING LATE AUGUST
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY RUNNING WITHIN A CATEGORY OR SO OF
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES OVER MANY LOCATIONS.

CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHEASTERN OREGON EARLY THIS
MORNING IS PROJECTED TO SHIFT INTO NORTHERN NEVADA BY 12Z
TUESDAY...ALLOWING DEEPER ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE TO BEGIN PUSHING INTO
THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

IN ADDITION...DEEPER ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED WITH
NEXT NORTHERLY/NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE SURGE THAT IS PROJECTED TO MOVE
INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT BY THIS EVENING.

SEVERAL METEOROLOGICAL PARAMETERS/SIGNALS ARE COMING TOGETHER TO
WARRANT A CONCERN FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL(ESPECIALLY OVER
PORTIONS OF EL PASO...TELLER AND KIOWA COUNTIES) FROM LATER TODAY
INTO TONIGHT AND HAVE ADDED LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WORDING FOR THESE
LOCATIONS DURING PORTIONS OF THIS TIME-FRAME.  CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE FLASH FLOOD PRODUCTS AT THIS TIME AND AS
ALWAYS...WFO PUEBLO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY.

ANOTHER METEOROLOGICAL CONCERN DURING THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS(ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE
NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE SURGE) FROM LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
LOCALIZED FORECAST CAPE AND LI VALUES NEARING 1000 J/KG AND -5C
RESPECTIVELY IN COMBINATION WITH MEAN LAYER SHEAR VALUES APPROACHING
50 KNOTS AT TIMES ARE PROJECTED FROM LATER TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING...PRIMARILY FROM SECTIONS OF EASTERN EL PASO COUNTY INTO
KIOWA COUNTY AND POINTS NORTH.  THIS AREA WILL NEED TO MONITORED
CLOSELY FOR STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
CURRENTLY...SPC HAS A SEE TEXT CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK PRODUCT FOR THIS
GENERAL LOCATION.

FINALLY...NEAR/SHORT TERM MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD
CONTINUE TO RUN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE LATE AUGUST CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGES OVER MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 456 AM MDT MON AUG 25 2014

AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TUE THROUGH AT LEAST THU. AN UPR LOW
WL BE OVR NV ON TUE AND THE SW FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...WL
BRING MSTR FROM THE SOUTH OVR CO.  WIDESPREAD PCPN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED FOR TUE AND TUE NIGHT ACRS THE FORECAST AREA. THE MTNS AND
HIGH VALLEYS WL SEE PCPN CHANCES BEGIN IN THE MORNING HOURS...WHILE
PCPN WL GET A LATER START OVR THE SERN PLAINS..WITH THE FAR ERN
AREAS POSSIBLY NOT SEEING PCPN CHANCES UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS.  ON
WED THE UPR TROF MOVES INTO WRN CO.  FORECAST MODELS ARE SHOWING AT
LEAST SCT PCPN OVR AND NR THE HYR TRRN...PCPN OVR MUCH OF THE SERN
PLAINS COULD BE MORE SPOTTY AS THE BEST MSTR AND UPR FORCING STAYS
NORTH OF THE AREA.  HIGH TEMPS ON BOTH TUE AND WED ARE EXPECTED TO
BE A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE.

WED NIGHT THE UPR LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM NWRN CO INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL CO...BRINGING BETTER UPR DYNAMICS OVR THE FORECAST AREA.
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN THE
GFS.  THE GFS KEEPS SOME PCPN CHANCES GOING THRU WED NIGHT ACRS MUCH
OF THE AREA. ON THU THE UPR LOW THEN IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EASTWARD
ACRS SERN CO...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF HAS THE UPR LOW OVR SWRN CO THRU
THE DAY.  EITHER WAY...BOTH MODELS HAVE WIDESPREAD PCPN ON THU...SO
WL HAVE SCT AND HIGHER POPS IN THE FORECAST...ALONG WITH BELOW
AVERAGE HIGH TEMPS.

FRI MORNING THE GFS HAS THE LOW IN ERN CO NR THE KS BORDER AND
SLOWLY MOVES IT SOUTHEASTWARD INTO SWRN KS BY EVENING AND INTO WRN
OK BY 12Z SAT.  THE ECMWF MOVES THE UPR LOW CENTER EASTWARD...AND
INTO NWRN KS BY 12Z SAT.  THE GFS TRACK OF THE LOW ON FRI RESULTS IN
ISOLD TO SCT POPS FRI MORNING OVR THE FAR SERN PLAINS...SLOWLY
TAKING THE BETTER PCPN CHANCES EASTWARD AS THE LOW MOVES SOUTH AND
EAST. OVR THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA...RESIDUAL MSTR AND
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SHOULD LEAD TO ISOLD TO SCT PCPN OVR AND NR
THE MTNS.  THE ECMWF SLOWER AND FARTHER NORTH TRACK OF THE LOW
LEAVES A BETTER CHANCE FOR PCPN OVR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ON SAT...AND UPR RIDGE BUILDS OVR THE AREA AND DRIER WX IS EXPECTED.
ON SUN...RELATIVELY DRY ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED WITH LITTLE CHANCE
FOR PCPN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM MDT MON AUG 25 2014

TSRA DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AT MIDDAY WILL SPREAD TO LOWER
ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH STORMS NEAR KCOS AND KPUB MOST
LIKELY IN THE 21Z-02Z PERIOD...AND AROUND KALS 22Z-01Z. WITH MORE
MOISTURE AVAILABLE TODAY...EXPECT LOWER CLOUD BASES AND RESTRICTED
VISIBILITY UNDER THE STRONGEST STORMS...AND LOCAL MVFR/BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. STORMS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT INTO
NORTHEAST COLORADO THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH A COLD FRONT
AND SHIFT TO NORTHEAST WINDS PUSHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS
AFTER 00Z. MAY SEE SOME IFR STRATUS ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE BY 12Z
TUE...BUT WONT INCLUDE IN KCOS TAF YET. EXPECT WIDESPREAD TSRA ALL
AREAS ON TUE WITH MTS OBSCURED AND MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF
SITES BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...PETERSEN



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