Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 250524
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1124 PM MDT MON AUG 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT MON AUG 24 2015

A LARGE UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN IS PROGGED TO BUILD NORTH AND EAST ACROSS
THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW...AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
AND ANOTHER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE PAC NORTHWEST COAST. THIS WILL
PUSH THE CENTROID OF THE HIGH...OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...INTO SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO TOMORROW...KEEPING WEAK
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AS WEAK SOUTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO.

WARMING AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL KEEP
LIMITED CHANCES FOR CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. ANY STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET
WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WARMING ALOFT AND MORE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL KEEP
OVERNIGHT LOWS WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER AND NEAR THE
HIGHER TERRIN. THERE LOOKS TO BE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN EXPECTED
MOUNTAIN CONVECTION TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CONTDVD...AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASES UNDER THE WEAK
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. MORE OF THE SAME EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO WITH WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS THE WARM AIR ALOFT
KEEPS THE PLAINS CAPPED. HIGHS TOMORROW LOOK TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT MON AUG 24 2015

...HEAVY RAIN FOR THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY...

MAIN FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE WX WED-WED NIGHT. A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE ONGOING RIDGE...MOVING FROM NE UT ON
WED TO WY EARLY THU...THEN ON TO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS ON THU. THIS
WILL ENHANCE CHANCES FOR PRECIP OVER WRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THERE
WILL BE AN INCREASED SURGE OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTH...WITH THE GFS PREDICTING WIDESPREAD PRECIP H2O OF AROUND AN
INCH ON WED. EXPECT WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OVER THE CONTDVD BEGINNING
WED MORNING...THEN INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IN THE
AFTERNOON. LOCAL FLASH FLOODING WILL BE THE CHIEF
CONCERN...PARTICULARLY FOR THE SAN JUANS AND WEST FORK AREA BUT TO A
LESSER EXTENT OVER THE MTN RANGES N OF HGWY 50.

EAST OF THE MTS...PRECIP CHANCES NOT LOOKING NEARLY AS GOOD. WRLY
FLOW AND LACK OF LLVL MOISTURE ON THE PLAINS WILL LIMIT
POPS...ESPECIALLY E OF I-25. A COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY CROSS THE
PLAINS...BUT TIMING OF THE FRONT EARLY THU MAY BE TOO EARLY FOR GOOD
COVERAGE OF STORMS. BEST INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL BE SHUNTED TO
THE SOUTH AND E OVER KS AND THE PANHANDLE REGION. RELATIVELY DRY N-
NW FLOW WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT BUT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
RESIDUAL MOISTURE FOR SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWER/TS ACTIVITY LATE THU
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORT WAVE.

BEYOND THIS SYSTEM...FROM FRI INTO THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THE PATTERN LOOKS PRETTY BLAND AND STABLE AS THE LOW
AMPLITUDE RIDGE REMAINS STEADY OVER NM DURING THIS TIME. DRY SW FLOW
WILL TEND TO KEEP US ON THE DRY SIDE...BUT AT LEAST SOME MODEST
MONSOONAL MOISTURE SHOULD BE ABLE TO SNEAK UP UNDER THE RIDGE...SO
WILL MAINTAIN THE LOW DIURNAL POPS OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER TRRN.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGES FOR
LATE AUGUST. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM MDT MON AUG 24 2015

FOR COS...PUB AND ALS TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT DIURNAL WINDS. OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...TSRA CHANCES WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY TUES AFTERNOON AS
DEEPER MOISTURE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO COLORADO...WITH BEST COVERAGE
OF STORMS OVER WESTERN AREAS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...PETERSEN


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