Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 250534
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1134 PM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1123 PM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

LOADED IN SOME FRESH MODEL DATA FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
TOMORROW EVENING. BOOSTED POPS TO LIKELY OR BETTER
ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS AS
THIS LOOKS LIKE THE AREA BEING TARGETED BY THE EVENING
MODEL RUNS. H7 TEMPS COMING DOWN TO -5 TO -7C BEHIND
COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. THIS
SHOULD BE LOW ENOUGH FOR SOME WET SNOW DOWN TO AROUND
5000 FEET OR SO AFTER AN INITIAL RAIN/SNOW MIX. INTRODUCED
SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS DOWN TO ABOUT THIS LEVEL
TOMORROW. AMOUNTS SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM A DUSTING
OF WET SNOW AT SOME OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS UP TO 4
INCHES OR SO IN THE MOUNTAINS. H7-H5 LAPSE RATES LOOK
STEEP...7.5 C/KM TO 9.5 C/KM ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
AS THE UPPER TROUGH DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
THIS SHOULD ENCOURAGE SOME CONVECTIVE SNOWFALL RATES.
SUPPOSE SOME AREAS ALONG/NEAR THE MOUNTAINS COULD SEE
1-2 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES...AND ACCUMULATIONS OF
A FEW INCHES ON SHORT ORDER. LOOKING LIKE A TYPICAL MARCH
CONVECTIVE SPRING SNOWFALL EVENT FOR THE SOUTHERN FRONT
RANGE. SHOULD BE INTERESTING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 708 PM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

RED FLAG CONDITIONS NO LONGER BEING MET OVER EL PASO COUNTY
ALTHOUGH MEADOW LAKE AND SCHRIEVER ARE STILL HITTING 23 MPH.
CRITERIA IS 25 MPH. BUT...BELIEVE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
SO RED FLAG WARNING IS BEING EXPIRED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 615 PM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

RED FLAG CONDITIONS STILL OCCURRING ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY. WINDS
HAVE DIED OR RELATIVE HUMIDITIES HAVE COME UP ELSEWHERE. RED FLAG
WARNING CONTINUED FOR EL PASO COUNTY BUT EXPIRED ELSEWHERE. ALSO
LOADED IN LATEST OBSERVATIONS. LW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

CURRENTLY...WINDY AND WARM CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN FOUND ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...AS TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE 60S TO
AROUND 70 F FOR THE PLAINS...AND INTO THE 50S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS.
SKIES WERE SUNNY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT AS OF 3 PM HIGH LVL
CLOUDS WERE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE CONTDVD AND E MTS.

TONIGHT...RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN DIMINISHING
BETWEEN 6 AND 7 PM AS TEMPS START TO COOL AND RH INCREASES...SO THE
RED FLAG WARNING WILL MOST LIKELY EXPIRE AT THE PREDETERMINED
TIME. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN FROM
THE W-NW AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS THE STATE
OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER
THE CENTRAL MTS RIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT...THEN INCREASE IN COVERAGE
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HRS.

TOMORROW...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE PALMER DVD
BETWEEN 13-15Z. GUSTY N-NE WINDS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY IS FORECAST
ALONG THE E MTS AND I-25 CORRIDOR...DEVELOPING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH...THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. ADJUSTED
THE POP GRIDS TO SHOW SCATTERED OR EVEN LIKELY POPS FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND FAVORED SLOPES OF THE RAMPART RANGE...PALMER DVD AND E
MTS...WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE ONLY ISOLATED
ACTIVITY. THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE WETS...SANGRES AND PIKES
PEAK MAY SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF NEW SNOW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON DUE
TO THIS QUICK MOVING WAVE. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE PLAINS
TOMORROW TO BE ABOUT 10- 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN READINGS TODAY.
MOORE

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE CWA DURING THIS PERIOD. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES QUICKLY AWAY FROM THE AREA. ON
THURSDAY...THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS ON NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. THE ENERGY AND MOISTURE REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST
OF THE CWA WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT GIVING A GLANCING BLOW TO THE
EASTERN PLAINS. MODELS SHOWING DRY CONDITIONS THURSDAY SO HAVE
KEPT ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER PIKES PEAK. LATEST
GUIDANCE HAS WARMER TEMPS ON THURSDAY AS WELL...SO HAVE BUMPED
HIGHS UP A FEW DEGREES.

RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
AND THEN REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES RETURN TO
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS...WITH SATURDAY THE WARMEST DAY IN THE
PERIOD. ON SUNDAY... A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER THE TOP OF
THE RIDGE AND THE RIDGE IS FLATTENED SOMEWHAT. MODELS SHOW A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BACK DOORING THROUGH THE PLAINS WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AT LOW LEVELS ON THE PLAINS.
COULD SEE SCATTERED LATE DAY SHOWERS DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND PALMER DIVIDE.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...SOME DIFFERENCES CROP UP IN THE MODELS EVOLUTION
OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF
MOVING ACROSS UT/CO SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. 12Z GFS HAS A
CLOSED 500MB LOW WELL TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST BEYOND SUNDAY...SO MADE NO CHANGES TO
THE MONDAY/TUESDAY FORECAST WHICH CURRENTLY HAS TEMPERATURES
REMAINING MILD AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN
AREAS. STARK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1051 PM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

MAIN AVN CONCERN IS STRONG COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH ERN
CO WED MORNING...REACHING KCOS BETWEEN 10-12Z AND KPUB 12-13Z.
THE FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY N-NE WINDS GUSTING 30 KTS OR
HIGHER. MOST PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER THE ERN MTS AND W OF
I-25...HOWEVER SOME SCT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AT OR NR KCOS IN THE
LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. COULD SEE A MIX OF RA...SN AND
POSSIBLY GRAUPEL OR ICE PELLETS. SHOWERS LESS LIKELY BUT POSSIBLE
VICINITY KPUB AND KALS IN THE AFTERNOON. CIGS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
DROP BELOW MVFR FOR ANY EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME. SHOULD SEE RAPID
IMPROVEMENT FROM N TO S AFTER 21-22Z...WITH VFR ALL SITES BY 03Z
OR SO IN THE EVENING. ROSE


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...STARK
AVIATION...ROSE



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