Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS65 KPUB 151655
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1055 AM MDT WED OCT 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM MDT WED OCT 15 2014

 ...NEAR RECORD HIGHS TODAY...

NO BIG CHANGES IN FORECAST FOR TODAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE STATE THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN OVERHEAD BY
SHORT WAVE ENERGY TRANSLATING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR INCREASING WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA
AS THE GREAT BASIN SHORT WAVE CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH TONIGHT.

WARM AIR ALOFT UNDER THE RIDGE...WITH CPW...MYP AND PIKES PEAK
SENSORS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S ATTM...WILL PERSIST AND SPREAD EAST
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. H7 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO BE 1-3C WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY...AND WITH EXPECTED DOWNSLOPE FLOW AS DEVELOPING LEE
TROUGH ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING KICKS OUT ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE
MID 70S TO THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS...WITH 60S
AND 70S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MAINLY 40S AT THE PEAKS. WITH
INCREASING HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...BELIEVE CURRENT RECORDS OF 86F SET IN 1965 AT
PUB...80F SET IN 2010 AT COS AND 75F SET IN 1991 AT ALS...ARE
SAFE...SAVE COS WHICH MAY SEE ENOUGH MIXING TO AT LEAST TIE THE
RECORD. THE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS AHEAD OF THE LEE/
PREFRONTAL TROUGH...COULD LEAD TO MARGINAL CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
PRECIPITATION OVER THE PAST WEEK AND THE EXPECTED MARGINAL ASPECT
OF MET CONDITIONS...WILL NOT GO WITH ANY FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.

LEE/PREFRONTAL TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS OVERNIGHT...WITH BREEZY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS KEEPING
OVERNIGHT LOWS AT OR ABOVE NORMAL...WARMEST ACROSS THE PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM MDT WED OCT 15 2014

UPPER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER
THURSDAY...WITH ASSOCIATED DRY COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH
COLORADO DURING THE DAY. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF NORTHERLY WINDS
IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...LOW LEVEL FLOW
GRADUALLY DIMINISHES AND BECOMES EASTERLY AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER DROPS INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. STRONGEST COOLING
WITH FRONT DOESN`T ARRIVE UNTIL LATE THU
AFTERNOON/EVENING...THOUGH SHIFT TO N/NE WINDS WILL SHAVE A FEW
DEGF OFF OF MAX TEMPS VERSUS WEDNESDAY`S VERY WARM NUMBERS. UPPER
RIDGE THEN REBUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES FROM FRI INTO THE
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH SOME WEAK UPPER ENERGY UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE
MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE SAN JUANS/SOUTHERN SANGRES/NM
BORDER ZONES SAT AND SUN...THOUGH PRECIP AMOUNTS LOOK VERY LIGHT
AT THIS POINT. MAX TEMPS FRI-SUN WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES MOST AREAS...AS WINDS STAY RATHER LIGHT
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK AS PACIFIC
ENERGY MOVES ONSHORE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. MODELS HINT AT WEAK TAP
OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD ON THE BACK-SIDE OF THE
RIDGE...WHICH WILL LIKELY KEEP THE THREAT OF AT LEAST ISOLATED
MOUNTAIN CONVECTION GOING THROUGH WED WITH PERHAPS AN UPTURN IN
CONVECTIVE CHANCES MID WEEK AS ENERGY EJECTS EASTWARD THROUGH THE
ROCKIES. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD LOOK TO REMAIN MILD AS ANY COLD
AIR STAYS LOCKED IN CANADA.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED AT 1055 AM MDT WED OCT 15 2014

A DRY UPPER RIDGING PATTERN WILL ALLOW VFR CONDITIONS TO
CONDITIONS AT THE KALS...KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.