Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 241725
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1125 AM MDT SUN JUL 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 448 AM MDT Sun Jul 24 2016

Primary near/short term meteorological concerns over the forecast
district include but are not limited to pops, temperatures, locally
heavy rainfall/localized flash flooding potential as well as the
potential for some stronger to possibly severe thunderstorms at
times.

Forecast district currently graced by variable clouds in combination
with isolated shower/thunderstorm activity and generally above
seasonal late July early morning temperatures.

Latest short range real-time data, computer simulations, PV
analysis and forecast model soundings suggest that a relatively
active pattern will be noted over the forecast district into
tonight as adequate atmospheric moisture in wake of northerly
surge that pushed through the region during the previous 12 hours
in combination with some weak upper energy(per PV analysis) will
allow generally scattered primarily late morning into evening
showers and thunderstorms to be noted over the forecast.

Locally heavy rainfall and associated flash flooding potential will
be possible with the stronger storms(as indicated by projected
precipitable water values nearing 1.3 inches at times) and have
included locally heavy rainfall wording in grids/zones.

In addition, WFO Pueblo will closely monitor for the potential of
strong to potentially severe thunderstorms at times(primarily
favoring eastern locations of the forecast district) into tonight
as projected localized capes, LI`s and Bulk Shear values challenge
1500 J/KG, -5C and 35+ knots at times. Also, the SPC Day 1
Convective Outlook has a large portion of southeastern Colorado in
their marginal risk of severe thunderstorms into tonight.

Finally, maximum and minimum temperatures are projected to run
near to slightly above late July climatological averages during
the next 24 hours over the majority of the forecast district.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 448 AM MDT Sun Jul 24 2016

The forecast models are indicating active weather thru the week.  On
Mon and into early Tue an upr ridge wl be centered ovr CO and NM,
and is then expected to moves westward Tue night and Wed, becoming
centered ovr the Great Basin.  Then, from Thur and thru Sat the upr
ridge center is forecast to be near southwestern UT.

Daily chances for showers and tstms are expected, with the best
chances being over and near the mountains.  A front is expected to
move thru the sern plains late Thu with low level upslope flow to
follow thru Fri.  A shortwave trof is expected to move thru the area
late Fri which could lead to better chances for pcpn acrs all the
sern plains thru Fri night.  Temps thru the week are expected to be
around to a few degrees above average.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1116 AM MDT Sun Jul 24 2016

Scattered tsra will develop this afternoon over the mountains,
then spread to lower elevations and the eastern plains 20z-22z.
With better moisture across the area and lower t/td spreads
today, potential for lower cigs/vis with storms has increased,
with MVFR to brief IFR cigs/vis under some of the stronger
storms. Will carry a VCTS mention at all taf sites from around 20z
until 03z-04z, and may need to include a tempo group for tsra at
KPUB and KCOS, though will wait on convective developments before
adding anything. Convection then slides east across the plains
this evening, with clearing skies and VFR conditions overnight.

&&

.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...PETERSEN


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