Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 040524
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1024 PM MST WED FEB 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MST WED FEB 3 2016

...COLD NIGHT AHEAD...

WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH CO THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO
SET OFF SOME ISOLD SHSN OVER THE MTNS AND ACROSS THE RATON MESA
AREA...MAINLY SOUTH OF HGWY 160. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE OFF PRETTY
QUICKLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE AS THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH CO
AND STABLE CONDITIONS SET IN AFTER SUNSET.

WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND LIGHT WINDS...ALONG WITH A BIT
OF SNOW COVER...WILL BE ALMOST PERFECT CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING. H7 TEMPS WILL START OFF AROUND MINUS 15 AND CLIMB A BIT BY
THU MORNING AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS SHOULD PUT
MORNING LOWS AT OR A BIT BELOW THE MINS FROM THIS MORNING. KPUB
COULD SEE ITS FIRST NEGATIVE MORNING LOW OF THE 2015-2016 SEASON.
THE LAST TIME KPUB FAILED TO FALL BELOW ZERO FOR THE SEASON WAS IN
1999-2000 (LOW OF ZERO FOR THAT SEASON).
CURRENT FORECAST FOR PUEBLO TONIGHT IS FOR A LOW OF MINUS ONE...SO
IT WILL BE CLOSE. HIGH VALLEYS WILL HAVE NO PROBLEM GOING WELL
BELOW ZERO...WITH DOUBLE DIGIT NEGATIVES LIKELY TONIGHT.

THURSDAY...WILL SEE AFTERNOON HIGHS A BIT HIGHER WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S FOR THE PLAINS. CLEAR SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO HIGH CLOUDS
BUILDING FROM THE WEST AS ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE APPROACHES. THIS
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SHSN TO THE MTNS BY THE MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL BE MOST LIKELY LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE
CONTDVD...ESPECIALLY N OF KMYP. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MST WED FEB 3 2016

...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK WITH A BRIEF REBOUND FOR SATURDAY...

MODELS ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK/EVOLUTION OF NEXT
UPPER TROF WHICH DROPS THROUGH NW FLOW ACROSS CO THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. ECMWF STILL OFFERS THE STRONGEST SOLN...WITH
THE SYSTEM CLOSING OFF ACROSS SOUTHWEST KS FRIDAY MORNING.  ALL
MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW...SPREADING ACROSS THE PLAINS
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRI MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SINCE EC IS THE OUTLIER...HAVE LEANED FORECAST TOWARDS THE MORE
PROGRESSIVE NAM AND GFS.  BUMPED UP POPS A BIT MORE...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE CONTDVD THE FAVORABLE OROGRAPHIC NW FLOW. WILL KEEP MOST
OF THE PLAINS UNDER ISOLATED POPS FOR NOW...BUT ITS POSSIBLE THEY
MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED FURTHER. ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS POINT LOOK
FAIRLY LIGHT AS SYSTEM IS PRETTY QUICK MOVING. THIS WILL BRING A
REINFORCING SURGE OF COLDER AIR TO THE REGION...WHICH WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS.

SHORTWAVE RIDGE TRANSLATES IN FOR SATURDAY BRINGING A SHORT TERM
REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES.  WENT BELOW GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS FOR THE SNOW
COVERED AREAS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTERIOR VALLEYS.  BUT SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE SE PLAINS SHOULD SEE A RETURN OF MID 40S TO LOWER
50S.

WARMING IS SHORTLIVED...WITH ANOTHER TROF GLANCING BY NORTHERN CO ON
SUNDAY.  THIS WILL SEND ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
...THOUGH THIS ONE LOOKS DRY AT THIS POINT.  THIS WILL KNOCK
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN BELOW CLIMO FOR SUNDAY. LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE
NOW FARTHER EAST WITH THE CORE OF ARCTIC AIR SPREADING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...SO WILL STICK CLOSE
TO THE MODEL BLEND FOR NOW.  BY WEDNESDAY...WESTERN U.S. RIDGE WILL
BE SHIFTING EASTWARD BRINGING A RETURN OF WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR
WEDNESDAY WITH READINGS POTENTIALLY REBOUNDING INTO THE 50S TO LOWER
60S ACROSS THE PLAINS. -KT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1017 PM MST WED FEB 3 2016

AT KALS...GUSTY NW WIND EARLIER TODAY BROUGHT SOME DRY AIR TOWARD
THE SURFACE...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE DURATION/EXTENT OF ANY FOG
NEAR THE TERMINAL. STILL A LOW THREAT FOR SOME BRIEF GROUND FOG TO
COME UP FROM THE RIO GRANDE AROUND SUNRISE GIVEN FCST MINUS 18F
LOW TEMP...AND WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP FOR IFR VIS 11Z-14Z.
ONCE ANY FOG CLEARS..VFR THROUGH THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

AT KCOS...VFR TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. MAY SEE A FEW -SHSN COME
OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN THU EVENING AFTER 00Z...AND WILL INCLUDE A
VCSH MENTION FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE LAST TAF PERIOD.

AT KPUB...VFR TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

OVER THE MOUNTAINS...INCOMING WAVE WILL SPREAD -SHSN TO THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY MIDDAY THURSDAY...WITH HIGHER PEAKS
OBSCURED FROM MONARCH PASS NORTHWARD BY THU EVENING.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...PETERSEN


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