Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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000
FXUS65 KPUB 292105
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
305 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

CURRENTLY...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER
THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON WITH DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES ARE WARM WITH UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT.
EXPECTED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS EVENING OVER THE MOUNTAINS.  WEAK STEERING FLOW ALOFT
SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION ANCHORED TO THE TERRAIN WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT.
 LIGHTNING ALONG WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH MOST STORMS.  PEA SIZE HAIL MAY ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS...ESPECIALLY OVERT HE SOUTHERN SANGRE
DE CRISTO RANGE.  MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DISSIPATING BY 10 PM WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.  MODELS BRING A
WEAK DISTURBANCE IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO WESTERN COLORADO BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.  EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.  GIVEN THE INCOMING DISTURBANCE...THE GREATEST COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED OVER THE SAN JUAN AND LA GARITA RANGES.  LIGHTNING...GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND PEA SIZE HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS.  THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS THE
PLAINS DRY THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BEGIN TO MOVE OFF THE RAMPART RANGE INTO EL PASO COUNTY BY SUNDAY
EVENING.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM ACROSS THE REGION WITH 90S
EXPECTED FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.  MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY BE JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH SOME WEAK
CONVECTION INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR SUN EVENING...THOUGH STORM
COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST. EASTERN PLAINS WILL LIKELY STAY
DRY AS MOST STORMS WILL DIE FAIRLY QUICKLY AWAY FROM THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. INITIAL SHORT WAVE MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO
THE HIGH PLAINS ON MON...FLATTENING THE UPPER RIDGE AND ALLOWING
FOR MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN COLORADO.
SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS MON AFTERNOON AS
WELL...WHICH WILL LIKELY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION INTO THE
EVENING. THUS EXPECT AN INCREASE IN TSRA CHANCES ALL AREAS
MON...INCLUDING THE EASTERN PLAINS...WHERE CAPES CLIMB TO NEAR
1000 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON. FRONT DISSIPATES ON TUE WITH LOW
LEVEL WINDS BECOMING S-SW BY AFTERNOON...THOUGH SUSPECT ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL LINGER TO KEEP THE THREAT OF AT LEAST ISOLATED
CONVECTION IN PLACE MOST AREAS INTO THE EVENING. MAX TEMPS MON
WELL ABOVE NORMAL MOST LOCATIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH ONLY
SOME VERY MINOR COOLING TUE OVER THE ERN PLAINS.

FROM WED ONWARD...UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...KEEPING MID LEVEL FLOW GENERALLY SW ACROSS CO. RATHER
LOW-GRADE MONSOON TAP WILL REMAIN OVER THE STATE...KEEPING THE
THREAT FOR ISOLATED...MAINLY MOUNTAIN TSRA GOING WED-SAT. TEMPS
FOR THE PERIOD LOOK TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES MANY
LOCATIONS...WITH 90S RATHER WIDESPREAD OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS...AND 70S/80S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR ALL THREE TERMINALS. A
FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
MOUNTAINS TODAY BUT DO NOT LOOK TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN.  ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...AND MAY
IMPACT KALS AND KCOS BY SUNDAY EVENING. MOZLEY

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...MOZLEY



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