Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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000
FXUS65 KPUB 272048
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
248 PM MDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT SAT JUN 27 2015

CURRENTLY...AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUED TO BE CENTERED
OVER UTAH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THIS RIDGE
PRODUCING CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN MTS. IT HAS BEEN A VERY WARM
DAY...WITH MAX TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS OF 3 PM.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...THE UPPER RIDGE DOES NOT MOVE SIGNIFICANTLY
OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO
BUBBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE EVE...WITH CELLS MOVING
GENERALLY TO THE SOUTH. CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH SOON
AFTER SUNSET...WITH NIL ACTIVITY AFTER 06Z. FOR SUNDAY...A VERY
SIMILAR DAY IS ON TAP. ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL ONCE AGAIN START
DEVELOPING BY LATE MORN...AROUND 17Z...AND FOR THE MOST PART WILL
REMAIN OVER THE MTS THROUGH THE AFTN AND EVE. MODELS ARE INDICATING
A LIGHT NORTHERLY PUSH ACROSS THE PLAINS IN THE MORNING...WHICH WILL
IN TURN SHIFT TO A MORE UPSLOPE DIRECTION THROUGH THE AFTN. BUT
AGAIN...NOT A LOT OF ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE I25 CORRIDOR OR
ADJACENT PLAINS. 850 AND 700 MB TEMPS WARM SLIGHTLY...SO LOOK FOR
MAX TEMPS TOMORROW IN THE 80S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS...AND MID 80S TO
MID 90S FOR THE E PLAINS. MOORE

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT SAT JUN 27 2015

...HOT AND MAINLY DRY UNTIL WEDNESDAY...THEN COOLER AND WETTER INTO
THE JULY 4TH WEEKEND...

NORTH-NORTHWEST MID LVL FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY ACROSS THE
REGION AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MIDLVLS REMAINS TO
OUR WEST. THIS WILL...FOR THE MOST PART...KEEP THE PLAINS DRY WITH
ISOLATED TO SCTD POPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 90S
PLAINS AND 70/80S MTNS/VALLEYS. CANT RULE OUT A STRONG MTN/VALLEY
STORM OR TWO AS SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE AND THERE SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT CAPE.

FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD...RIDGE BREAKS DOWN DOWN AS A FEW SHORT WAVES
WILL BE MOVING THROUGH IN THE NW FLOW. TIMING VARIES IN THE
GUIDANCE...BUT IT IS LIKELY WE WILL SEE SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR
MOVING IN STARTING LATE WED AND LASTING INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
GIVEN THAT WE WILL LIKELY HAVE SE WINDS AT THE SFC AND MODEST NW
FLOW ALOFT...SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE THURSDAY-SATURDAY SO
CONCEPTUALLY...ROTATING CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE IF SUFFICIENT
CAPE CAN BE REALIZED. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY BE
ALONG AND EAST OF THE EASTERN MTNS AS DRIER AIR WILL BE NOTED OVER
W CO. /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT SAT JUN 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS...INCLUDING THE THREE MAIN TAF SITES OF
KCOS...KPUB AND KALS. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONFINED TO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS EVE...WITH VCTS FOR KALS UNTIL 04Z THIS
EVE...THEN ONCE AGAIN STARTING AROUND 17Z TOMORROW. SHOULD STAY
CLEAR FOR THE I25 CORRIDOR...AND KCOS AND KPUB. MOORE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...MOORE


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