Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 221051
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
451 AM MDT FRI APR 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 449 AM MDT FRI APR 22 2016

NEAR/SHORT TERM METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES INCLUDE
TEMPERATURES...ISOLATED TO LOW SCATTERED PRIMARILY AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL AND GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES.

EARLY THIS MORNING...FORECAST DISTRICT CURRENTLY GRACED BY DRY
CONDITIONS IN COMBINATION WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...GENERALLY ABOVE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVELY LOW-GRADE WINDS.

A TRANSITORY UPPER RIDGE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO IN
COMBINATION WITH LEE-SIDE SURFACE TROUGHING DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN
COLORADO WILL ALLOW FOR RELATIVELY TRANQUIL AND WARM CONDITIONS TO
BE NOTED OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

RECENT REAL-TIME DATA...FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS...PV ANALYSIS AND
COMPUTER SIMULATIONS SUGGEST THAT ISOLATED TO LOW SCATTERED POPS
WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...PRIMARILY
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS...WITH MANY LOCATIONS NOT EXPECTED TO
REALIZE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

IN ADDITION...(OUTSIDE OF LEADVILLE WHERE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE)...MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD RUN SOME 7F TO 12F WARMER THAT LATE APRIL
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES...WHILE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD
RUN APPROXIMATELY 8F TO 13F ABOVE LATE APRIL CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES
OVER MOST LOCATIONS. FINALLY...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER MANY LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY BY TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 449 AM MDT FRI APR 22 2016

ON SAT AN UPR LOW WL MOVE FROM SWRN ID INTO WRN WY AND THEN WL MOVE
EASTWARD ACRS WY SAT NIGHT.  THIS WL BRING STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SFC
WINDS TO THE FORECAST AREA SAT...WITH 20-30 KT SUSTAINED WINDS AND
HIGHER GUSTS.  ONE CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED RED FLAG
CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SERN PLAINS.  THERE ARE A FEW
AREAS...SUCH AS OTERO AND CROWLEY COUNTIES AND PORTIONS OF THEIR
SURROUNDING COUNTIES...THAT COULD SEE RH VALUES FALL BELOW 15
PERCENT FOR A COUPLE OR A FEW HOURS SAT AFTERNOON.  THE MOUNTAIN
AREAS ON SAT ARE EXPECTED TO SEE ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS...WITH
POSSIBLY SOME ISOLD SHOWERS/TSTMS OVR THE SERN PLAINS.  HIGH TEMPS
SAT WL GENERALLY BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

AS THAT UPR LOW MOVES OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA FOR
SUN...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY SOME ISOLD SHOWERS
OVR THE CENTRAL MTNS. IT SHOULD NOT BE AS WINDY ON SUN...BUT THERE
WILL STILL BE AREAS OF BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS. TEMPS ON SUN SHOULD BE
A LITTLE COOLER.

ON MONDAY A NEW UPR LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
AHEAD OF THE LOW...BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
FORECAST.  BY MON AFTERNOON SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD
ACRS THE MOUNTAIN AND HIGH VALLEY AREAS AND POSSIBLY OVR PORTIONS OF
THE I-25 CORRIDOR.   FOR MON NIGHT  THE ECMWF MOVES THE UPR LOW ACRS
NRN CO...WHILE THE GFS IS SLOWER AND FARTHER NORTH WITH THE MOVEMENT
OF THE UPR LOW THRU TUE. THE UPR LOW TRACK MAKES A DIFFERENCE WITH
REGARDS TO HOW FAR SOUTH PCPN WL BE MON NIGHT AND TUE.  BY WED THE
UPR LOW SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH TO THE NORTH AND EAST THAT MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WL BE DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE CENTRAL MTNS WHICH
WL PROBABLY STILL HAVE SOME SHOWERS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPR LOW
EARLY IN THE DAY.  WED AFTERNOON THERE WL LIKELY BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL
MSTR FOR SOME SHOWERS MAINLY OVR THE MTN AREAS.

ON THU A NEW UPR LOW IS EXPECTED OVR THE WRN PART OF THE COUNTRY.
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM SOME MSTR MOVING INTO WESTERLY CO COULD LEAD TO
HIGH COUNTRY PCPN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 449 AM MDT FRI APR 22 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE KALS...KCOS AND
KPUB TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS AS UPPER RIDGING TRANSLATES
ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO DURING THIS TIME-FRAME.  AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS THAT ISOLATED PRIMARILY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL NOT DIRECTLY IMPACT THE TERMINALS.
&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...77



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