Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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000
FXUS65 KPUB 062232
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
332 PM MST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM MST FRI MAR 6 2015

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW OVER FORECAST AREA NEXT 24 HOURS.  VERY WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MAY BRING SOME THIN...HIGH CLOUDS SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION AT TIMES BUT THE LOWER LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO JUST A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE AT MOST
LOCATIONS.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM MST FRI MAR 6 2015

NOT MANY METEOROLOGICAL ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED DURING DURING THE
LONGER TERM AS A GENERALLY DRY AND MILD TO WARM METEOROLOGICAL
PATTERN DEVELOPS OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE LONGER TERM FROM THIS
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

IT STILL APPEARS THAT A RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE(PER
RECENT PV ANALYSIS) WILL IMPACT SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
DISTRICT(PRIMARILY HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS) FROM LATER THIS
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY EVENING. ELSEWHERE...PROJECT THAT REMAINDER OF
THE CWFA DURING THE BALANCE OF THE LONGER TERM SHOULD NOTICE
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS IN COMBINATION WITH MILD TO WARM
TEMPERATURES(ESPECIALLY OUTSIDE OF DEEPER SNOW-PACK LOCATIONS).

LATEST FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS...LONGER TERM COMPUTER
SIMULATIONS AND PV ANALYSIS STILL SUGGESTS THAT AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL IMPACT PRIMARILY CENTRAL AND WESTERN HIGHER
TERRAIN LOCATIONS...PRIMARILY FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
EVENING. IT STILL APPEARS THAT POTENTIAL TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
OVER THESE LOCATIONS SHOULD GENERALLY RUN IN THE ONE TO FOUR INCH
RANGE DURING THIS TIME-FRAME.

A NORTHERLY SURFACE SURGE IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE PUSHING ACROSS
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA SUNDAY MORNING HELPING TO BRIEFLY
RESTRICT A RECENT WARMING TREND.

HOWEVER...ANTICIPATE THAT THE WARMING TREND WILL THEN RESUME FROM
MONDAY INTO AT LEAST THURSDAY AS PROJECTED INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR
700 MB TEMPERATURES BY NEXT WEDNESDAY CLIMB TO AROUND 5C IN
COMBINATION WITH EASTERN COLORADO SURFACE LEE-SIDE TROUGHING AT
TIMES.

THEN...A RETURN TO COOLER AND SOMEWHAT MORE UNSETTLED
METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN BE NOTED OVER THE
FORECAST DISTRICT BY NEXT FRIDAY...THANKS TO ANOTHER
WEATHER SYSTEM IMPACTING SOUTHERN COLORADO.

WARMEST CONDITIONS DURING THE LONGER TERM ARE STILL ANTICIPATED
FROM TUESDAY INTO NEXT THURSDAY...WHILE COOLEST READINGS ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY AND THEN AGAIN POSSIBLY BY NEXT FRIDAY.
ALSO...STILL PROJECT THAT BASICALLY LOW-GRADE GRADIENT WINDS
SHOULD BE NOTED OVER THE MAJORITY OF FORECAST DISTRICT INTO
LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 332 PM MST FRI MAR 6 2015

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW OVER FLIGHT AREA NEXT 24 HOURS. WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MAY BRING SOME PATCHES OF HIGH...THIN CLOUDS SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA AT TIMES...BUT NO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE
FOR CIGS OR PRECIPITATION. VFR ALL AREAS...INCLUDING KCOS...KPUB AND
KALS TAF SITES.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$



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