Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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781
FXUS65 KPUB 240526
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1026 PM MST Thu Feb 23 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 614 PM MST Thu Feb 23 2017

Front is moving through the southeast plains and has brought
higher humidities into the region. Therefore have let the Red Flag
Warning for Las Animas and Baca counties expire at 600 PM. Also
refined pops across the Pikes Peak region as waves of snow spread
in and pull back to the north through the evening. Most of the
activity across the Pikes Peak region should end by 1000 PM.
Additional accumulations of an inch or two will be possible...but
this will be localized in coverage and mainly along the crest of
the Palmer Divide.  -KT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 335 PM MST Thu Feb 23 2017

...Winds decreasing and cooler weather moving in...

Currently...

Cyclogenesis is ongoing across far sw KS as intense short wave
ejects out of the rockies. Cold front with this low extended from
far sw KS to south of La Junta to Colorado Springs vicinity at 2 pm.
Generally south of this front winds were westerly and gusting to 30
to 40 mph while north of the front temperatures were sharply colder
with northerly to northeasterly winds. Strongest winds on the plains
were generally along the CO/NM border, and this is where the Red
Flag conditions were occurring.

Rest of This Afternoon...

Cooler air was noted along the US-50 corridor and have cancelled the
RED FLAG warning for these areas. Along the CO/NM border. Red Flag
criteria was still being meant, and will allow the warning to go
until its` expiration time. High wind warning for the greater
Spanish Peaks region will be allowed to continue until its`
expiration time.

Tonight...

Two areas of precip will be possible tonight over the fcst area.
First area will be along the Palmer Divide as moist northerly flow
will prevail over this region. This moisture, combined with remnant
lift, will allow for snow showers to occur mainly over N El Paso
county this evening. Cant rule out an inch or two of snow on top  of
the divide this evening.

The second area will be over the central mtns where weak vorticity
centers will transit within the moist westerly flow over this
region. several inches of snow will be possible.

lighter snow showers will be possible over the remainder of the
higher terrain.

It will definitely feel like winter tonight across the region. Temps
will be in the teens across the lower elevations of El Paso county
and 20s elsewhere across the rest of the plains. The mountains will
be especially cold, with temps below zero across all of the highest
terrain. The valleys will generally be in the single digits and
teens.

Winds will be slow to decrease tonight most areas. The cold front
will slowly progress southward through the evening, and should be
across all of the plains around midnight.

Tomorrow...

weak short wave will continue to ripple in the jet stream which
will lie to the south of the State tomorrow. This will keep a threat
of snow showers ongoing, especially over the higher terrain tomorrow
afternoon. It will be much colder over the plains tomorrow with
highs not getting above freezing across most of El Paso county, and
only in the 30s across the remainder of the plains. The mountains
and valleys will remain cold, especially the mountains were highs
wont get out of the single digits. /Hodanish

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 335 PM MST Thu Feb 23 2017

Friday night-Sunday night...Moderate westerly flow aloft progged
across region Friday night and Saturday, as an upper low across the
Upper Midwest continues to lift north and east and a flat upper
ridge builds across the state. West to southwest flow then increases
across the region through the day Sunday, as an Eastern Pacific
trough digs across the Great Basin and continues across the Rockies
Sunday night.

Showers over the higher terrain Friday afternoon diminish Friday
evening, with some light orographic snow possible through the day
Saturday along the ContDvd. However, latest models are indicating
showers continuing across the Pikes Peak region through the late
evening hours, with light upslope flow juxtaposed with moisture and
uvv associated with a weak passing wave. At any rate, have bumped up
pops and will need to monitor later models as would be occuring
during the Friday evening commute. Latest ECMWF is not as amplified
with the next system, though should see snow increases across the
ContDvd Saturday night and Sunday, with snow and rain showers
spreading east over the high mountain valleys to the Eastern
Mountains Sunday afternoon and evening, with some showers possible
across the I-25 corridor and eastern plains associated with passing
cold front. Pops to diminish Sunday night. Quick movement of this
system to limit snow totals, though could see low end advisory
amounts across portions of the ContDvd. Temperatures look to be at
or below seasonal averages through the period.

Monday-Thursday...Moderate westerly flow early Monday behind the
passing trough gives way to increasing southwest flow once again
through the day Tuesday, as another Eastern Pacific system digs
across the Great Basin and continues across the Rockies through
Tuesday night. This system will bring another round of snow,
possibly heavy at times, to the ContDvd starting late Monday morning
and continuing through early Tuesday. Increasing westerly flow
Monday will help boost temperatures and increase fire danger across
the eastern plains Monday afternoon, with another quick shot of
generally light rain and snow for southeast Colorado on Tuesday
behind the system`s associated cold front. The latest EC model is a
tad deeper and slower with this system, which would bring a better
chance of precipitation the plains.

Drier weather, save for possible snow showers across the Central
Mountains, with moderating temperatures expected across the area on
Wednesday with northwest flow aloft behind the passing system for
Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1022 PM MST Thu Feb 23 2017

VFR conditions at COS, PUB and ALS through at least 18z Fri with
breezy north winds at COS and PUB diminishing over the next few hours
as front continues to push south. MVFR CIGS possible at COS and PUB
after 20Z with developing upslope flow with latest models continuing
to suggest convective showers developing across the Pikes Peak region,
with showers spreading off the higher terrain and across the I-25 corridor
through the late afternoon and evening. Did introduce PROB30 for snow and
IFR conditions at COS through the late afternoon and early evening. Could
see showers at ALS as well, though kept VCSH in the TAF for now.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KT
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...KT



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