Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 272154
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
254 PM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

TONIGHT THE UPR RIDGE AXIS WL BE EAST OF THE AREA AS AN UPR TROF
MOVES THROUGH SRN ID AND OVR AND INTO WRN CO. THE UPR DISTURBANCE
WL BRING CHANCES FOR SNOW ALONG THE CONTDVD BY LATE TONIGHT...
WHICH WL CONTINUE THRU WED MORNING. THE CENTRAL CO MOUNTAINS WL
SEE THE BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW...BUT ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS CAN
BE EXPECTED. THE UPR TROF MOVES EAST...OVER ERN CO BY WED
AFTERNOON...WITH PCPN CHANCES DECREASING ALONG THE CONTDVD. THE
REST OF THE FORECAST AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. WITH THE UPR
TROF MOVING THRU THE AREA ON WED...THERE MAY BE SOME BREEZY NW
WINDS. ALTHOUGH HIGH TEMPS ON WED WL BE COOLER THAN TODAY IN MOST
LOCATIONS...THEY WL STILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE BY 10 TO 20 DEGREES...
WITH THE WARMEST READINGS BEING OVR THE FAR SERN PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

...WEEKEND SNOW CHANCES STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN...

FIRST...THE EAST PART OF THE FORECAST...AFTER THE WED COLD FRONT
PASSAGE WE WILL DROP DOWN CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR TEMPS FOR
THE BALANCE OF THIS WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEK. SHOULD SEE TEMPS IN THE
40S FOR THE PLAINS AND 20S-30S FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
POTENTIALLY A FEW DEGREES LOWER IF PRECIP BECOMES A FACTOR. BUT THE
RECORD WARMTH WILL BE OVER FOR THE REST OF THE MONTH INTO THE FIRST
PART OF FEBRUARY.

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE IMPACT OF A STORM SYSTEM
THIS WEEKEND. AN UPPER LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRN JET STREAM WILL
TRACK INTO THE GREAT BASIN REGION LATE THU INTO FRI...WHILE A NRN
BRANCH SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH SRN CANADA AND INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS
BY EARLY SATURDAY. THE MAIN QUESTION IS TO WHAT EXTENT THESE TWO
SYSTEMS PHASE...AND THE RELATED QUESTION OF HOW FAR TO THE NORTH THE
LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL TRACK. LATEST NCEP
GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE 12Z GFS AND THE 18Z NAM...ARE NOW TRACKING
THE CLOSED LOW WELL TO OUR SOUTH...IMPACTING MAINLY NEW MEXICO
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. IN THESE SOLUTIONS...THERE IS LITTLE
INTERACTION WITH THE NRN STREAM SHORT WAVE...AND MOST OF THE PRECIP
IN OUR AREA WOULD REMAIN OVER THE SRN PORTION...GENERALLY SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 160.

IN CONTRAST...THE 12Z ECMWF HAS BETTER PHASING BETWEEN THE TWO
SYSTEMS...AND TRACKS THE SRN LOW A BIT FARTHER NORTH...WITH A BETTER
TAP OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH. THIS IS A BIT OF A REVERSAL FROM
YESTERDAY`S RUNS. NONE OF THE SOLUTIONS WOULD PROVE VERY FAVORABLE
FOR THE I-25 CORRIDOR...BUT THE DIFFERENCE WOULD IMPACT SNOW FOR THE
SW AND CENTRAL MTS CONSIDERABLY...AND WOULD ALSO DETERMINE THE
PROBABILITY OF AT LEAST LIGHT SNOW FOR THE PLAINS. WHILE THE TREND
DOES SEEM TO BE MORE TOWARDS A SPLITTING SYSTEM...WITH LESSER IMPACT
FOR OUR ERN ZONES...IT STILL IS A BIT TOO EARLY TO MAKE A GOOD
PREDICTION. GFS ENSEMBLES ARE A BIT CLOSER TO THE OP ECMWF. AT THIS
POINT...WILL STAY THE COURSE WITH ENSEMBLE-BASED POPS...WHICH SHOW
THE BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW OVER OUR SERN ZONES LATE FRI THROUGH
SATURDAY. CHANCE OF SNOW FOR THE PLAINS AND NRN I-25 CORRIDOR STILL
LOOK APPROPRIATE AT THIS POINT...AND WE SHOULD HAVE A BETTER FEEL
FOR THE FORECAST BY TOMORROW.

AFTER THIS SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR EAST BY EARLY SUNDAY...THE FLOW
BECOMES QUASI ZONAL...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE THREAT OF LIGHT SNOW
GOING OVER THE CENTRAL MTS. BOTH THE GFS AND EC SHOW ANOTHER TROUGH
ARRIVING BY NEXT TUESDAY...BUT IT DOES NOT LOOK VERY IMPRESSIVE AT
THIS POINT. WILL HAVE TO WAIT TO SEE WHAT THE WEEKEND SYSTEM
DELIVERS TO US FIRST. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 253 PM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINAL SITE THRU THE NEXT 24
HOURS...WITH MAINLY JUST SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING ACRS THE
AREA.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...28


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