Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 192250
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
350 PM MST Sun Feb 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 350 PM MST Sun Feb 19 2017

Weakening upper low lifting from the 4 corners across Colorado this
afternoon, with periods of moderate/heavy snow along the Continental
Divide and mainly isolated showers/sprinkles elsewhere. South winds
have become rather gusty many areas this afternoon, especially far
eastern plains where some virga enhanced gusts have approached 40
kts. For tonight, upper low/trough lifts northeast through the area,
with precip ending from south to north along the Continental Divide
overnight. Will keep current advisories up into the evening, with a
few more inches of snow set to accumulate over the higher peaks by
midnight. Interior valleys/eastern mountains will see a few showers
into the evening, with a rapid decrease in activity after sunset.
Any sprinkles on the plains late this afternoon will shift quickly
into KS by evening, with only a brief wrap around sprinkle/flurry
possible along the Palmer Divide until midnight.

On Monday, dry weather returns to the region as upper ridge builds
across the srn Rockies. Main concern is potential for near critical
fire wx conditions over the eastern plains, as gusty NW winds wrap
around the departing low from late morning into the early afternoon.
With winds diminishing from mid afternoon onward, window for fire
danger is rather small, and won`t issue any highlight, but will
mention in fire weather forecast. Max temps will remain well above
average Mon, with readings into the 60s along and east of I-25, and
pushing 50f over most interior valleys. Dry and extremely warm
conditions are expected on Tue as winds aloft strengthen and promote
deep mixing across the region. Record highs look possible at
Colorado Springs and Pueblo, with a few spots on the plains
approaching the 80f mark. Fire danger will increase with the wind,
with near critical conditions along and east of I-25 in the
afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 350 PM MST Sun Feb 19 2017

Main meteorological issues during the longer term continue
to be temperatures, pops and gusty winds at times. In addition,
localized elevated fire weather conditions at times also a
concern.

Latest longer range PV analysis, forecast model soundings and
computer simulations indicate that a relatively dry and
continued unseasonably warm southwesterly upper flow pattern will
prevail over southern Colorado from Tuesday night into Wednesday
night with next upper disturbance impacting primarily western and
northern sections of the CWA with unsettled conditions from
Thursday into Thursday night.

Then, next potentially stronger upper system is projected to
impact the forecast district with unsettled conditions beginning
next Sunday.

Meanwhile, at the surface, healthy northerly surge is still
expected to push across eastern sections of the forecast district
Thursday night with secondary northerly surge moving across
eastern sections Saturday night.

Above to well above seasonal temperatures(once again favoring
eastern portions of the forecast district) are still anticipated
from Tuesday night into Wednesday night with temperatures then
running near to below mid to late February climatological averages
from Thursday into next Sunday.

Warmest temperatures during the longer term should be experienced
Wednesday with coolest readings expected from Friday into next
weekend.

Finally, the highest potential for gusty winds at times over the
forecast district during the longer term should be noted from
Tuesday night into Thursday night and then again from later Friday
into the weekend with localized elevated fire weather conditions
needing to be closely monitored...especially into mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 350 PM MST Sun Feb 19 2017

VFR conditions expected at all taf sites tonight and Monday.
Isolated -shra may move off the higher terrain and across KALS and
KCOS terminals through early evening, though cigs and vis will
likely remain VFR, even with precip. Winds at all sites will remain
gusty out of the S-SW in the 20-30 kt range into the evening, then
gradually shift toward the W-NW and diminish 02z-04z. Over the
mountains, much of the higher terrain along the Continental Divide
will remain obscured by clouds and snow through midnight, with
improving conditions toward Mon morning. Eastern mountains will see
isolated showers until 01z-03z, then gradual clearing overnight.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM MST this evening for COZ068.

Winter Weather Advisory until 2 AM MST Monday for COZ058-060.

&&

$$


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