Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 191754
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1054 AM MST Mon Feb 19 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1044 AM MST Mon Feb 19 2018

Cold front has penetrated farther south into southeast CO than
earlier thought. Have made rather large changes to the forecast
package to drop temperatures across most of the southeast plains,
increase pops to account for light snow through the day...though
not expecting much will accumulate. Also took down wind highlights
for the lower elevations. Overall models not handling situation
well, though appears NAMNest and RAP may be doing the best.

UPDATE Issued at 736 AM MST Mon Feb 19 2018

Added morning fog to El Paso County, the southern I-25 corridor
and parts of the plains.

UPDATE Issued at 640 AM MST Mon Feb 19 2018

Just ran a quick update to address the lows this morning. Also,
while I did not add it to the forecast, there have been some
patchy areas of freezing fog over El Paso County this morning.
This may reduce visibilities from time to time.  Mozley

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 349 AM MST Mon Feb 19 2018

Currently...cold front has arrived early this morning across
Colorado Springs and Pueblo, and is currently sagging south over the
Plains.  Low level clouds have been quick to fill in behind the
frontal boundary.  Up over the higher elevations, gusty west winds
have been blowing, with 75 to 80 mph winds reports at La Veta Pass.
Along the lee slopes, much will depend on how deep the colder air
gets.  Temperatures will be also be dependent on where the cold air
ends up.

Today...the upper trough over the western states will continue to
dig deeper across the Great Basin into Utah.  Increasing
southwesterly flow aloft will likely limit the downslope potential
by mid to late morning.  Thats not to say that it will not be
blowing, as locations over the over the Mountains and San Luis
Valley will keep winds elevated over will remain gusty.  Wind gusts
over the San Luis Valley will likely reach 40 to 45 mph, while
mountain areas will see gusts near 75 mph.

Snow will continue along the Continental Divide through this
evening.  Locations over the San Juan Range will see the highest
totals, while locations further north see a bit less for snowfall
totals.  Winds will also cause issues with blowing and drifting of
snow.

Across the Plains, it all really depends on where the frontal
boundary ends up.  Westerly winds are a sure thing down south along
the New Mexico border.  Most model guidance suggests the frontal
boundary lifting north to around the Arkansas River Valley, with
some suggesting further north.  Guidance looks like temperatures
anywhere from lower 40s to mid 50s for Pueblo!

Tonight...the upper level trough will be slowly progressing eastward
tonight.  Snowfall looks to peak during the evening hours before
falling off by Tuesday morning.  Winds will also begin to subside
late tonight along the Continental Divide.  Over the Plains, much
will continue to depend on how far south the frontal boundary makes
it.  Temperatures will likely fall into the 20s across the Plains
tonight.  As far as precipitation is concerned, there may be light
snow or freezing drizzle over the Palmer Divide and over Kiowa
County.  Mozley

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 349 AM MST Mon Feb 19 2018

...More Mountains Snows through the Period...

The pattern change, primarily for the mountains, will continue
through the period.  Through yesterday morning, roughly 2 inches of
Snow Water Equivalent has been added to the basin average snowpacks
across the Upper Rio Grande and Upper Arkansas Basins since February
1st. And, more snow is being added as we speak. Fortunately, this
change in the pattern will continue for a while longer.

Forecast models show some lingering snows in the mountains Tuesday,
followed by the arrival of a new system Wednesday night and
Thursday.  Snowfall eases up a bit for a brief period Thursday night
and Friday, before yet another system moves across late Friday into
Saturday. Much like their predecessors, these systems look like good
performers for the southern mountain areas.  The main flow of air
across the state with each system will continue to be from the
southwest.  Southwest flow favors the massive San Juan Mountain
Range and to some extent the higher terrain of the southern Sangre
de Cristos.  The ranges farther north will also see periods of snow
with each system but they will tend to be shadowed to a certain
extent by the San Juans.  The San Juans could see another couple
feet of snow from late Wednesday into early Saturday whereas
accumulations over the ranges farther north will probably be about
half of that through the same period.  Regardless, it will be some
much needed snowfall for the Colorado Continental Divide.

For the rest of the mountains and the lower elevation areas, the
pattern is really not all that conducive to precipitation.  There
could be some light snow showers at times but nothing that amounts
to much.  The Pikes Peak Region could maybe see a period of snow
showers late Tuesday afternoon and evening.  The high valleys,
eastern mountains and immediately adjacent plains could maybe see
some snow showers Wednesday night into early Thursday. There could
be another opportunity for a few snow showers most areas Friday
night into Saturday as the main part of an upper disturbance moves
across.  In any event, most of the snow during the period will be
along the Continental Divide with mostly just spotty light amounts
elsewhere.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1044 AM MST Mon Feb 19 2018

IFR to LIFR conditions expected to continue along the I-25
corridor with MVFR conditions across the eastern plains. Light
snow and fog is expected to persist across the area through the
day for KCOS and KPUB. Real challenge is how long low clouds and
fog will persist for both terminals as suspect forecast
simulations are not handling the position of the cold front well.
Will keep LIFR conditions for KCOS until 01z with a lift into the
IFR to MVFR category during the evening before fog returns by
late evening with LIFR conditions again. For PUB will keep cigs in
the MVFR category though may see a brief lift to VFR this evening
before clouds lower again tonight. KALS will see periodic snow
showers through the afternoon with brief MVFR/IFR Cigs/VIS. Gusty
southerly winds will persist through much of the period...though
will back off a bit during the evening and overnight. Chances for
showers at the KALS terminal will decrease late this evening with
improving conditions. Any accumulations at the terminals will
remain light with amounts under an inch. -KT


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning until noon MST today for COZ072>075-079-080-
082.

Winter Weather Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 AM MST
Tuesday for COZ073-075-082.

Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM MST Tuesday for COZ058-061-
065>067.

Winter Storm Warning until 8 AM MST Tuesday for COZ060-068.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KT
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...KT



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