Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 102220

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
320 PM MST Sat Dec 10 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 244 PM MST Sat Dec 10 2016

...Snow and Wind Across the Mountains into Sunday...

Currently...a strong upper level jet is beginning to move across
Southern Colorado this afternoon.  Mountain obs indicate winds
gusting 50 to 65 mph.  Radar and observations also indicate snow
moving into the Continental Divide.  Over the plains, westerly
mixing has allowed for quick warming along lee slopes, east into the
Plains.  Temperatures have warmed into the mid 60s for the I-25
corridor, while 50s fill in the lower Arkansas Valley.

Tonight...a strong, fast moving upper level disturbance will move
out of the Pacific Northwest into Wyoming overnight tonight.  South
of this disturbance, a strong upper level jet move continue to move
across Colorado.  Snow is forecast to fill in along the Continental
Divide this evening, with periods of moderate to heavy snow expected
into Sunday morning.  The heaviest snow is expected over the Central
Mountains where winter storm warnings are currently in effect.  In
addition to snowfall, very strong winds are expected.  Westerly
winds gusting to near 75 mph are possible, which will produce areas
of blowing snow with reduced visibilities.  Travel will be hazardous
over the Continental Divide, especially from Monarch Pass north.

Strong winds are also expected over the Sangre de Cristo range
tonight.  Winds gusting in excess of 75 mph are likely, especially
for the southern half of the range.  Isolated snow showers are
possible over the eastern mountains late tonight, with only minor
accumulations possible.  Further north over the Rampart Range, winds
will be strong.  Gusts to near 70 mph are possible this evening over
Pikes Peak, and down the lee slopes of Teller County.  For now, will
forego a high wind warning, but winds will likely flirt with
criteria through this evening.

Dry conditions are forecast across the plains.  Temperatures will
likely remain mild, especially along and west of I-25 where breezy
conditions will persist through the night.  Strong cross winds may
be possible south of Pueblo along I-25.  Locations further east will
see the coldest lows.

Sunday...the upper level disturbance and jet are forecast to
continue east into the Missouri Valley by Sunday afternoon.  Expect
moderate to heavy snowfall to continue along the Continental Divide
through the morning hours before decreasing to more isolated to
scattered activity in the afternoon.  Total accumulations over the
Central Mountains of 8 to 18 inches are expected, while areas over
the San Juan and La Garita ranges see 2 to 6 inches.

A cold front is forecast to back east across the plains early on
Sunday.  This will bring cooler air into the region with
temperatures only reaching into lower 50s.  Mozley

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 244 PM MST Sat Dec 10 2016

Main upper wave shifts east into the plains Sun night, though
strong wly upper level jet will remain in place across CO. Should
be enough orographic lift under the jet to keep snow showers going
Sun night through the day Mon along the Continental Divide, though
accums look fairly light and limited to mainly west facing slopes
north of Monarch Pass. Max temps Mon will remain at or a little
above average as wly flow spreads away from the mountains and
across the plains by afternoon. Upper ridge amplifies slightly
over the wrn U.S. Mon night and Tue, though flow remains moist
enough to keep some light snow showers going over the higher peaks
of the central mountains. Shallow cold air mass backs into the
eastern plains early Tue morning, then slowly erodes through the
day as sfc high moves eastward through the Mississippi Valley.
Max temps east of the mountains will be tricky as cold air
retreats, with mild air reappearing along the I-25 late in the

Cold air sloshes back southward on the plains Tue night, with some
light snow or flurries possible by Wed morning as airmass banks up
against the ern mountains. Moisture increases over the mountains
into Wed with a general upturn in snowfall, again mainly along
the Continental Divide where some modest accums looks possible by
Wed evening. Max temps Wed will stay fairly cold on the plains,
as arctic air will likely be slower to erode than on Tue. Strong
wave then moves onshore across the Pacific Coast Thu and swings
through the srn Rockies Fri/Sat. System should bring fairly heavy
snow to the mountains, though lee-side cyclogenesis Fri looks too
far north for significant snow over eastern slopes and across the
plains, at least at this point. Max temps Thu-Sat will remain on
the cold side, with most locations staying a little below mid-Dec


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 244 PM MST Sat Dec 10 2016

VFR conditions through the next 24 hours at all three terminals with
mid and high clouds spreading across the region. Winds will be
breezy into this evening with gusts 20 to 25 kts expected. Strong
jet energy will move across Colorado tonight. Added LLWS to KPUB
based on model guidance, with the most prone time period from 04-14z
tonight. Winds will shift southeasterly across KCOS and KPUB
by Sunday afternoon. Mozley


High Wind Warning from 8 PM this evening to 4 AM MST Sunday for

Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM MST Sunday for COZ059-061.

Winter Storm Warning until 11 AM MST Sunday for COZ058-060.



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