Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 251748
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1148 AM MDT Sat Mar 25 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 416 AM MDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Currently...

Clear skies prevailed across the region this morning. Temperatures
across the region at 3 am this morning were in the 20s and 30s
across the plains withe teens and 20s in the higher elevations. the
storms which brought all of the wind and snow/rain to the region was
well to our east spinning in KS while the next system which will
begin to affect us tonight was moving onshore SoCal.

Today...

Dry weather is expected across most of the region today. The only
exception will be along the contdvd where we may see a few light
showers developing over this region late in the day. temperatures
will be mild today, and any low elevation areas which received
snowfall with Fridays storm will see it quickly melt away. Generally
expect highs in the 60s most of plains with 50s in areas which
received snowfall Friday. Valleys will be mild with mainly
50s, and 30s and 40s in the mtns.

Tonight...

Clouds will increase region-wide. Snow showers will develop over the
contdvd this evening with this shower activity moving east through
the nighttime hours. A few showers may reach the plains towards
sunrise, especially across the Palmer Divide region. Overall best
chance of precip will be over the divide although all of the mtns
should see some precip with this event. As for snowfall, it will be
light with typical amounts ranging between an inch and 4 inches over
the highest terrain. No significant accums are expected in the
valleys. Temps tonight will be mainly in the 30s plains with 20s to
around 30 in the valleys and tens and 20s in the mtns. Winds will be
light. /Hodanish

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 416 AM MDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Sunday-Monday...Upper trough digging across the West Coast this
morning will continue to translate across the Rockies through the
day Sunday, with upper ridging building in behind the passing system
Sunday afternoon and evening. Increasing south to southwest flow
aloft is expected through the day Monday, as the next in a series of
Eastern Pacific disturbances digs into the Great Basin.

The first system looks to bring a quick shot of rain and higher
elevation snow showers into the ContDvd early Sunday morning.
Scattered showers spread east across the High Mountain Valleys
through the Eastern Mountains and Plains through the late morning
and afternoon, with a few thunderstorms possible across the far
Southeast Plains Sunday afternoon. Showers diminish from west to
east late Sunday afternoon and evening, with clearing and subsidence
behind passing wave. Quick movement of this system to limit
precipitation totals, though cant rule out a few inches of snow
across the higher terrain. Will see increasing clouds again through
the day Monday, with increasing chances of showers through the
afternoon, mainly across the ContDvd.

Temperatures cool to around seasonal averages Sunday with breezy
north to northwest winds expected behind the systems associated cold
front. Temperatures warm back to above seasonal levels Monday across
the area through the day Sunday.

Monday night-Friday...Latest models continue to differ on details of
the next system, with the ECMWF faster with the system as moves
across Northern New Mexico and into the Western Texas and OK
Panhandle by Wednesday afternoon. The operational GFS and its
ensembles are slower and dig the system into southern Arizona
through the day Tuesday, before lifting out across Central New
Mexico Wednesday and eventually into the Western Texas Panhandle on
Thursday. Both solutions support good chances of precipitation for
areas over and near the higher terrain from later Monday night into
Wednesday, with the further north EC solution also supporting
another significant rain/snow event across the Southeastern Plains.
There also could be strong to severe storms across the far Southeast
Plains Tuesday, though time will tell how this will play out.

Short wave ridging builds across the region behind the passing
system with yet another Eastern Pacific system taking aim on the
Rockies for the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1131 AM MDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Overview...
As the next upper-level disturbance propagates over the region,
precipitation is in play for ALS,COS, and PUB.

ALS...
Deep saturation associated with the upper-disturbance brings rain
showers and drops ceilings to around 04 kFt around 06Z,
potentially lower, which qualifies for MVFR conditions. Conditions
improve around 16Z.

COS...
Cloud cover gradually fills in the sky today as the upcoming
upper-level disturbance propagates over the region. Winds will
shift diurnally from SE during the day and Northerly overnight. North
winds begin gusting around 14Z. VFR conditions should be
observed. Towards the end of the forecast period, showers are
likely to develop over or around COS.

PUB...
Cloud cover develops and thickens throughout the day in response
to the upcoming upper-level disturbance. Winds shift diurnally
from a SE wind to a northerly wind overnight. The north winds
begin to gust around 15Z accompanied with the possibility of rain showers
in the vicinity of, or over, PUB. VFR conditions should be
observed throughout the forecast period.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...SKELLY



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