Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 031914
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
114 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 105 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

UPDATED POP GRIDS TO REFLECT LASTEST HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE AND
RADAR TRENDS OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. ALSO LOADED IN LATEST OBS
DATA INTO THE GRIDS. AT THIS TIME A FEW -TSRA ARE MOVING OVER THE
CENTRAL MTNS JUST TO THE WEST OF SALIDA...WITH A FEW TSTMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE SANGRE MTNS. THE SPC HAS
ALSO ADDED A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR WEATHER FOR THE SE PLAINS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. -AL

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1017 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

ADJUSTED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR LINE OF TSRA MOVING SE THROUGH THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY TOWARDS ALAMOSA. LOADED IN LATEST HIGH RES MODEL
DATA AND MOST RECENT OBS INTO THE GRIDS. -AL

UPDATE ISSUED AT 709 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

UPDATED MORNING POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST RADAR AND OBS TRENDS.
ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TODAY...

CURRENTLY...CONVECTION HAS LARGELY ENDED ACROSS THE CWA...WITH JUST
A FEW SHOWERS MOVING INTO WRN KS. SUBSIDENCE IS EVIDENT IN SAT
IMAGERY OVER NRN CO AS WE REMAIN ON THE E SIDE OF THE GREAT BASIN
RIDGE. TEMPS ARE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S OVER THE PLAINS...AND 40S
FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF AREAS TO WATCH FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
TODAY. FIRST WILL BE OVER THE FAR ERN PLAINS...GENERALLY
BACA...PROWERS AND KIOWA COUNTIES. A FEW WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE NE PANHANDLE AND NERN CO WILL CONTINUE
TO ROTATE S-SEWD THROUGH SERN CO THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
SO...SHOULD SEE SOME SCT STORMS IN THIS AREA TODAY. THEN...WILL SEE
AN INCREASE IN STORMS OVER THE MTS THIS AFTERNOON...SPREADING TO THE
I-25 CORRIDOR BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE. BEST COVERAGE OF
STORMS LOOKS TO BE WEST OF I-25...AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50...BUT A
FEW STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NRN ZONES AS WELL. CAPE IN
THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE AND SHEAR 30-40 KTS WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED
STORMS WITH A FEW RISING TO SVR CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SRLY TODAY OVER THE PLAINS...SO SHOULD SEE
AFTERNOON HIGHS TOP OFF A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THEY WERE
YESTERDAY.

STORMS WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAY TIME
HEATING AND NOT MUCH UPPER SUPPORT. WILL SEE SIMILAR OVERNIGHT
CONDITIONS AS WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST COUPLE DAYS...WITH CLOUD
COVERAGE GRADUALLY DECREASING AS WE HEAD INTO SAT MORNING. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL ACROSS THE MTNS THE MAIN CONCERN NEXT FEW
DAYS...

WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION JULY 4TH. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE MTNS.
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL BE MAINLY DRY...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLD STORM
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING. WARM TEMPS LIKELY FOR JULY 4TH WITH
HIGHS AROUND 90 MOST OF PLAINS WITH 80S IN EL PASO COUNTY.

THE WEATHER DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WILL BE A REPEAT OF
SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE WARMER ACROSS THE REGION...WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 90S MOST OF PLAINS AND 80S EL PASO COUNTY. SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE MOST ABUNDANT ACROSS THE MTNS WITH MAINLY DRY ACROSS
THE PLAINS.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MTNS THIS HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. SOME OF THIS HEAVY RAIN COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND
ROCK/MUDSLIDES...SIMILAR TO THE EVENT WE HAD WEST OF BUENA VISTA
YESTERDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT A RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL COME DOWN THE PLAINS.
THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME LATE NIGHT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE BOTH
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS SUNDAY EVENING AND EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. QUITE A BIT OF LOW CLOUDS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PLAINS
MONDAY MORNING.

FOR LATER MONDAY...EXPECT MOST OF THE PLAINS TO BE RATHER STABLE
WITH HIGH TEMPS ON THE IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80. THESE TEMPS WILL BE
RUNNING ABOUT 10-14F BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS DATE. THE MOUNTAINS WILL
BE A CONCERN THIS DAY AS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL BE UNSTABLE AND
GOOD UPSLOPE WILL BE PUSHING UP AGAINST THE HIGHER TRRN. FLASH FLOOD
POTENTIAL THIS DAY MAY BE RUNNING HIGHER THAN NORMAL...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CONTDVD.

GUIDANCE INDICATES THE CONTINUED THREAT OF HEAVIER SHOWERS ACROSS
THE MTNS ON TUESDAY...WITH ONLY ISOLD ACTIVITY OVER THE PLAINS.

FOR THE REST OF THE FCST...IT SHOULD DRY OUT A BIT OVER THE ENTIRE
FCST AREA...WITH ONLY ISOLD TO SCTD ACTIVITY IN THE MTNS AND ISOLD
TSRA OVER THE PLAINS. /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL THE TAFS SITES THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS. PERIODS OF LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AT THE TAF SITES DUE TO OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS. LUKINBEAL


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...LW



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