Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS65 KPUB 252139
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
339 PM MDT MON APR 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM MDT MON APR 25 2016

CURRENTLY...AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER
SOUTHERN NV AND UT...PUSHING CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND MOISTURE UP
ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF CO. SOUTHWEST WINDS
HAVE BEEN GUSTY WITH GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS...WHILE THE E PLAINS ARE STILL UNDER E-SE FLOW.
ONGOING RED FLAG WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE I25 CORRIDOR LOOKS
GOOD...AND IS SET TO EXPIRE AT 8 PM. TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE 60S
AND 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...WHILE PUB AND SITES EAST ALONG THE
ARKANSAS RIVER ARE NEARING 80F AS OF 3 PM.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO
WESTERN CO TONIGHT...THEN NORTHERN TO NORTHEASTERN CO THROUGH
TOMORROW.

CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOW TO INITIATE THIS AFTN...BUT ALL THE MODELS
ARE POINTING TO A BRIEF WINDOW OF CONVECTION OVER THE MTS THIS AFTN
AND EVE...THEN MOVING OFF THE MTS ACROSS THE I25 CORRIDOR THROUGH
06Z. LIKELY WILL BE A BRIEF ONE-SHOT WINDOW...BUT WITH ALL THE
MODELS INDICATING THIS CANNOT DISCOUNT THE POSSIBILITY. AFTER 06Z
ACTIVITY DIMINISHES WITH JUST SOME ISOLATED ACTION LINGERING ALONG
THE CONTDVD THROUGH THE NIGHT. TOMORROW MORNING SHOWERS START TO
RAMP BACK UP...THEN CONVECTION SPREADS ACROSS ALL OF THE MTS AND I25
CORRIDOR WITH A BIT MORE FORCE TOMORROW AFTN. TEMPS TONIGHT MAY BE
SOMEWHAT MILD SINCE SW FLOW ALOFT WILL STAY BRISK ALL NIGHT...AND AT
TIMES MIX DOWN TO THE LOWER LEVELS. MAX TEMPS TOMORROW ARE FORECAST
TO BE COOLER DUE TO THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER...AND CLIMB INTO THE
50S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS...AND 60S TO AROUND 70F FOR THE PLAINS. AS
FOR SNOW AMOUNTS...THE MTS TONIGHT WILL SEE UP TO 2 INCHES OF NEW
SNOW...THEN ANOTHER 2 INCHES THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. MOORE


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM MDT MON APR 25 2016

...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PERIODS OF WIDESPREAD PRECIP
EXPECTED DURING THIS LONG TERM FCST PERIOD...

MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 10 TO 15F BELOW NORMAL EACH DAY DURING
THIS FORECAST PERIOD. IN ADDITION...WE WILL SEE PERIODS OF
PRECIP...ESPECIALLY DURING THE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY TIME
PERIOD.

TUES NITE...

UPPER LOW WILL BE JUST NORTH OF THE FCST AREA. AT THE LOWER
LVLS...SFC FLOW WILL BE FROM THE NW. THIS WILL BRING A THREAT OF
SHOWERS TO THE C MTNS AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT PRECIP TO THE PALMER
DVD REGION. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NITE WITH
NW WINDS OF 10-25 MPH.

WEDNESDAY...

UPPER LOW IS FCST OF MOVE VERY LITTLE DURING THE WED TIME FRAME AND
THIS WILL KEEP AREA IN NW FLOW. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP THE AREA COOL
WITH BREEZY NW SFC WINDS. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
ACROSS THE C MTNS...ALTHOUGH ALL MTN AREAS MAY SEE SOME SHOWERS.
PLAINS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE
M50S TO M60S ACROSS THE PLAINS AND 40S AND 50S VALLEYS.

INTO WED NITE...NEXT SYSTEM MOVES TOWARDS REGION. WAA PATTERN WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE CO/NM BORDER DURING THIS PERIOD AND SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER  TERRAIN AND MOVE
NORTH DURING THE NIGHT. PRECIP SHOULD BE LIGHT.

THURSDAY...

CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER S CALIF AT 12Z THU WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST
AND WILL BE LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF THE 4 CORNERS BY EARLY
FRIDAY. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP OVER THE MTNS EARLY
THURSDAY AND INCREASE AND MOVE EAST OVER THE PLAINS BY LATE THU
AFTERNOON AND BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT.
AS LOW PROGRESSES TOWARDS REGION TEMPS ALOFT WILL COOL AND SNOW
LEVELS WILL DROP. HIGH MTN AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE ACCUM SNOW DURING
THE DAY THUR AND INTO THU NITE...AND HIGH ELEVATION WINTER WX
HILITES MAY BE NEEDED. AS FOR THE PLAINS...TEMPS WILL DROP INTO
THE 30S AND 40S THU NITE AND SNOW LEVEL COULD DROP TO THE ~6500
FEET...AS SEEN IN FCST SOUNDINGS...BY FRIDAY MORNING.

FRIDAY...

STEADY RAIN/SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE S MTNS/PLAINS FRIDAY
MORNING. OVERALL QPF WITH THIS THU NITE/FRI EVENT COULD BE
SIGNIFICANT WITH AN INCH OR MORE POSSIBLE OVER A GOOD PART OF THE
REGION. THE PLAINS/MTNS INTERFACE WILL LIKELY SEE THE BRUNT OF THE
PRECIP...AND OVER A FOOT OF WET SNOW AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION. IT IS STILL WAY TOO EARLY TO GIVE SPECIFIC
SNOW AMOUNTS.

PRECIP WILL DECREASE WEST TO EAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES OVER THE
REGION. IT WILL BE COOL AND CLOUDY THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

WEEKEND...

WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED AS THE BROAD TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER
THE REGION AND SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ROTATE THROUGH THE TROUGH.
THIS WILL KEEP A GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIP GOING OVER THE MTNS WITH
SCTD POPS OVER THE PLAINS IT WILL REMAIN COOL AND WE WILL SEE
ABOVE AVERAGE AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS OVER THE REGION. EXPECT HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 50S TO L60S PLAINS AND 40S AND 50S VALLEYS.

SUMMARY...

WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS LIKELY OVER THE REGION DURING PARTS OF THIS
PD. 7 DAY HPC QPF HAS 2-3" WITH ISOLD 4" AMOUNTS OVER THE FCST
AREA...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE MTNS/PLAINS INTERFACE. E SLOPES OF THE
S MTNS WILL LIKELY SEE THE MOST PRECIP...AND A GOOD BIT OF IT WILL
LIKELY BE SNOW. MTNS ALONG THE CONTDVD WILL ALSO SEE LOCALLY HEAVY
PRECIP. PLAINS WILL LIKELY SEE WIDESPREAD 0.5-1.25 INCH AMOUNTS.
TEMPS WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COOL THROUGH THE PERIOD. OVERALL BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE DURING THE THU EVE/FRI MORNING TIME PD AS
UPPER LOW TAKES A FAVORABLE TRACK ACROSS THE REGION. THIS LOW
TRACK MAY ALLOW FOR SOME ACCUM SNOW OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS  OF
THE PIKES PEAK REGION (N EL PASO COUNTY). /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 247 PM MDT MON APR 25 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION...INCLUDING THE THREE
MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS...KPUB AND KALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS.
SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY AT TIMES WITH GUSTS OF
30-35 KTS. INCLUDED MENTION OF VCTS FOR KALS THROUGH 05Z...FOR KCOS
02Z-06Z...AND VCSH FOR KPUB 01Z-05Z. THERE IS ALSO MENTION OF WIND
SHEAR FOR KCOS BETWEEN 06Z-10Z TONIGHT. MOORE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ222-227>230.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...MOORE


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.