Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 132247
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
347 PM MST Fri Jan 13 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 346 PM MST Fri Jan 13 2017

Low clouds and fog dissipated across much of the I-25 corridor and
eastern mountains by midday. Upslope flow is continuing and
temperatures have remained fairly cool today...only reaching the mid
20s to mid 30s most locations on the plains. KAFF warmed into the
mid 40s with fewer clouds however.

Current satellite imagery shows the strong upper low off the
northwest coast of Mexico bringing a broad swatch of moisture
northward into the four corners, southern and central plains. Main
concerns in the short term will be precipitation, both type and
amounts. The southwesterly flow will continue to bring snow to the
eastern San Juans through Saturday. Have canceled the winter weather
advisory for the Leadville and eastern portions of Lake County as
those areas will not have much additional snowfall. Other concern
for precipitation will be the potential for freezing drizzle over
the far southeast corner of the state beginning overnight tonight
and lasting into Saturday morning. Latest NAM soundings show the
potential for freezing drizzle with a shallow layer of cold air near
the surface and a shallow layer of moisture and warm above just off
the surface. Any ice accumulations in the short term will be light.
Keep in mind that freezing drizzle and light icing can cause an
impact for travelers and pedestrians.

On Saturday, we will continue to see snow in the eastern San Juans.
Moisture gradually increases over the southeast plains. Current
models don`t show a lot of cold air on the plains, so precipitation
should be mostly liquid on the Saturday afternoon. Moisture remains
limited through El Paso and Pueblo counties and the southern I-25
corridor Saturday, so lower pops in those areas.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 346 PM MST Fri Jan 13 2017

...A wintry mix possible across the southeast plains Saturday night
and Sunday with Snow expected later Sunday and Monday across the
southeast mountains and plains...

Saturday night-Monday...A closed upper low digging across the
southern California Coast this afternoon is expected to bring a mix
of winter weather to the region this holiday weekend. The main focus
with the this system Saturday night through the day Sunday remains
the potential freezing precipitation (freezing drizzle and freezing
rain) across the far southeast plains, with the focus then shifting
later Sunday through the day Monday to snowfall and accumulations,
especially across the southeast mountains and plains.

Latest model data is in two camps in regards to how the system moves
across the region, with the 12z runs of ECMWF and NAM similar early
having the closed low moving across southwestern New Mexico at 12Z
Sunday and lift it into the TX/OK Panhandle region by 12Z Monday,
though the EC remains the furthest west with the system and
continues this trend as it lifts out across north central Kansas by
00Z Tuesday. The 12Z GFS and its ensemble data is similar through
12Z Sunday, though is the furthest south and east as it lifts the
system into north central Oklahoma by 12Z Monday.

Both camp solutions seem plausible as the GFS is a tad faster and
deeper with secondary northern stream energy digging down across the
northern tier and northern Rockies which would tend to keep the
southern stream system further south and east of the area. WPC
guidance is a blend of the EC and NAM solutions, and have followed
suite. Moist southerly flow aloft across the area Saturday night
will lead to possible patchy light drizzle and freezing drizzle
across the far southeast plains, with could change to light freezing
into early Sunday morning, as overrunning deepens. Any freezing
precipiation turns to all snow Sunday afternoon and evening as UVV
associated with the low moves across the region, with snow
continuing Sunday night through Monday morning. The EC is furthest
west with the trowal and brings a period of snow back across the
Pikes Peak region Sunday night, where as the NAM keeps the lift
trowal across the far southeast plains. With that said, went ahead
and issued a Winter Storm Watch for the far se plains, (Kiowa, Bent,
Prowers and Baca Counties from Saturday night through Monday
morning, with the potential for freezing rain early in the period
changing to snow later in the period with accumulations of 3 to 6
inches. Further west, went with a Winter Storm Watch for the
southeast mountains, southern I-25 corridor and Raton Mesa region,
for snow accumulations of a foot or more across the Wet and Sangre
de Cristo mountains, and 4 to 8 inches across the adjacent plains.

Although will likely see light snow accumulations across all of
south central and southeast Colorado through this period, the main
impact of this event looks to be across the southeast mts and far
southeast plains.

Tuesday-Friday...Warmer and drier westerly flow aloft progged across
the region through midweek before another system digging across the
Great Basin brings a chance of precipitation to the ContDvd Thursday
and to the eastern Plains on Friday.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 346 PM MST Fri Jan 13 2017

Conditions expected to remain VFR tonight at KALS...KCOS and KPUB
under thick mid/high level cloud cover.  There is a very low
probability for IFR cigs to develop at KALS overnight...though it
still looks too low to warrant inclusion in the TAF at this point.
Should start to see cigs lower for KALS during the morning...and at
KCOS towards 18z with -SHRASN spreading in from the south.  Could
see brief MVFR to IFR conditions at times with these and KCOS and
KALS terminals could pick up a slushy inch of snow. Otherwise winds
will remain light with speeds under 10 kts. Widespread Mtn
obscurations along the Contdvd will continue through Saturday...with
the southeast mountains seeing mtn obscurations at times as showers
spread in on Saturday. Freezing rain will be possible to the east of
KLAA late Saturday afternoon which will spread back westward Sat
night/Sun to KLHX Saturday night.  KPUB could see -FZDZ spread into
the terminal Saturday night.  -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Watch from Saturday afternoon through Monday
morning for COZ072>075-079-080-087>089-093>099.

Winter Storm Warning until 5 PM MST Saturday for COZ066-068.

Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST Saturday for COZ060.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...STARK
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...STARK/KT



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