Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 181011

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
411 AM MDT MON JUL 18 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 410 AM MDT Mon Jul 18 2016

...First Influx of the Southwest Monsoon Moving into Southern
Colorado Today...

Morning satellite and radar loops are showing the first real
semblance to the southwest summer monsoon.  Satellite pictures show
a southerly tap of moisture streaming up from old Mexico across
Arizona and New Mexico into Utah and Colorado.  Radar loops show
convection percolating over the area right on through the night.
Nothing very strong out there but an indication of the advecting mid
level moisture and instability.

Southerly winds aloft have brought increasing moisture levels to
southern Colorado over the past 24 hours.  Around 12 am Sunday,
Blended Total Precipitable Water (TPW) values across southern
Colorado were generally running 70 to 80 percent of normal. 24 hours
later, around 12 am Monday, TPW values had increased to 100 to 125
percent of normal over all but Lake and Chaffee counties where
values were lagging behind in the range of 80 to 90 percent. Also,
surface dewpoints and humidities have come up as some of this
moisture has worked into the lower levels as well.  So, there should
be more water available for precipitation today and precipitation
efficiency should increase, resulting in less evaporation.  Could
even be some flash flooding out there if precipitation lingers over
an area too long or tracks over a flood prone area such as a burn
scar or urban area.

The most likely areas for showers and storms today would appear to
be the mountains and, particularly, the Pikes Peak Region.  The
models have been hottest on the precipitation in these areas for
several days now.  The mountains will favor precipitation as they
will be deepest into the monsoon moisture.  The Pikes Peak Region
will also benefit from an upper disturbance and surface boundary
that are forecast to focus precipitation along the Palmer Divide in
the afternoon.  The combination of the upper trigger and low level
forcing from the boundary could result in more intense and sustained
precipitation in that area.  Just have to monitor.  Some model runs
have kept the trigger and boundary way too far north to be much of a
player that far south.

The primary storm threats today will include all of those seen
yesterday, including lightning, hail an inch or more in diameter and
wind gusts to 60 mph or more.  In addition, locally heavy rain and
flash flooding will be added to the list of threats today.

It will still be hot across southern Colorado again today as mid
level temperatures don`t really change too much from yesterday.
However, the increased shower and thunderstorm activity should take
the edge off of the temperatures a bit, especially over the
mountains. So, a little good news in that department.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 410 AM MDT Mon Jul 18 2016

Hot conditions are forecast to continue through the extended period,
with perhaps some relief by way of the monsoon shifting into gear
and drawing moisture up into the western half of Colorado. Max temps
each day are expected to climb into the 90s to low 100s for the
plains, and 80s to around 90F for the high valleys.

Tuesday through Thursday...The upper ridge is expected to remain
over the central U.S. through the first half of Thursday, with an
upper trough over the Pacific NW. This places Colorado on the
western side of the ridge, and the tap of monsoon moisture will
continue across the 4 Corners and into the western half of the state.
Thunderstorms will be scattered to likely across the mts each aftn
and eve, with isolated activity spilling over onto the immediate
adjacent plains.

Friday through Sunday...the upper ridge flattens and spreads west
late Thursday, trapping moisture and recycling it across the state
into the weekend. Look for isolated to scattered storms over the mts
and isolated activity across the remainder of the plains. Meanwhile,
the upper trough over the Pacific NW weakens late Thu, and crosses
the northern Rockies as an open wave on Fri. This will push a cold
front down into eastern Colorado that will backdoor into the CWA Sat
morning. This front may bring 5 to 10 degrees of cooling by Sunday,
but the greatest effect will be an increased chance for convection
across the e plains both Sta and Sun aftn and eve. Moore


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 410 AM MDT Mon Jul 18 2016

Monsoon flow will result in increased shower and thunderstorm
coverage across southern Colorado today.  Conditions will start out
generally VFR across the flight area.  However, areas of MVFR, IFR
and LIFR conditions will develop in scattered showers and
thunderstorms beginning over the mountains 17Z-19Z and spreading
onto the plains 19Z-21Z.  Such conditions can be expected to
continue through the evening before mostly dissipating after 06Z.

The KCOS, KPUB and KALS TAF sites will see generally VFR conditions
through 18Z.  KCOS and KALS will start to see the chance for
convection moving through beginning around 18Z.  Not too much later,
after about 19 or 20Z, KPUB will see the chance for convection
moving through.  Besides the flight rule reductions, other possible
storm hazards will include hail an inch or more in diameter, erratic
wind gusts to 60 mph or more and heavy rain.


.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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