Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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000
FXUS65 KPUB 200522
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1122 PM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014

HAZY SKIES OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY IS DUE TO SMOKE
FROM WILDFIRES ACROSS WASHINGTON AND NOT DUE TO AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE ATMOSPHERE.  IN FACT...SFC DEW POINTS HAVE
BEEN FALLING OFF INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE HIGH COUNTRY...WITH 40S AND
50S ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...WITH HIGHEST READINGS NEAR THE
CO/KS BORDER.  THUNDERSTORMS WHICH HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN ON THE WEAK SIDE...AND HRRR
SUGGESTS THAT GENERALLY UP TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL MAY
FALL FROM SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THUS...THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING ON AREA BURN SCARS STILL LOOKS LOW
AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR AND GAGES CLOSELY
IN CASE AN OUTLIER STRONGER CELL IMPACTS THESE MORE VULNERABLE
LOCATIONS.  HIGH RES MODELS SUGGESTS THAT WEST FORK MAY HAVE THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL AND RUNOFF PROBLEMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  WITH INVERTED V SOUNDINGS...MAIN STORM
THREATS THOUGH WILL BE ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AND
LIGHTNING. MORE PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST PLAINS COULD LEAD TO AN ISOLATED STRONG TO NEAR SEVERE
STORM OR TWO LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PARTICULARLY TO THE
EAST OF LA JUNTA WHERE CAPES MAY APPROACH 1000 J/KG.  DEEP LAYER
SHEARS WILL BE AROUND 30 KTS OR LESS...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE THREAT
TO A BRIEF PULSE TYPE SEVERE STORM.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH FOR
MOST AREAS THIS EVENING...THOUGH A LOW LEVEL JET MAY KEEP SOME
THUNDERSTORMS GOING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CORNER LATE.

SIMILAR STORY FOR TOMORROW`S WEATHER PATTERN.  ONE SUBTLE DIFFERENCE
WILL BE A DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN CA INTO NV
AND WESTERN UT DURING THE AFTERNOON.  WHILE MAJORITY OF THE THE
FORCING WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE AREA...PRECIPITABLE WATERS DO
INCREASE SUBTLY OVER THE AREA.  SO PERHAPS SLIGHTLY BETTER
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE CONTDVD ON SUNDAY.
ELSEWHERE...ANOTHER HOT DAY IN STORE...WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING
AND EVEN EXCEEDING 100 ACROSS THE SE PLAINS.  MOISTURE LOOKS HIGH
BASED AGAIN...SO MAIN THREAT WILL BE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS.  BUT
SOME BRIEF HEAVIER RAINFALL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AND BURN SCARS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR PERHAPS SOME
ADVISORY LEVEL RAINFALL AMOUNTS. -KT

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014

.MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A WARM RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE REGION. GFS AND EC BRING SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT INTO THE
RIDGE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SUSPECT THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS. ON THE
PLAINS...LEE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER...AND HAVE
AN AREA OF ISOLATED POPS NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER BOTH AFTERNOONS
AND EVENINGS.

.WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...EC AND GFS SUGGEST SLIGHTLY MORE MIDDLE
AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWARD INTO THE STATE. THE
TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST FLATTENS THE RIDGE...KEEPING THE DRIER
EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. STORMS WILL BE
SLOW MOVING SO THERE COULD BE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN A
FEW OF THE STORMS. LATEST MODELS KEEP A COLD FRONT NORTH OF THE
CWA. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE FRONT BEING FURTHER SOUTH WHICH
COULD INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE PLAINS.

.FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...GFS AND EC SUGGEST A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
ON THE PLAINS FRIDAY WITH LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUING INTO
SATURDAY. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON
THE PLAINS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE
CHANCE FOR STRONGER STORMS WITH AN INCREASED THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAIN. FOR NOW...DID NOT MODIFY POPS MUCH FROM CR EXTENDED
PROCEDURE...AS SUSPECT MODELS MAY BE TOO STRONG WITH THE TROUGH
PASSING TO THE NORTH. --PGW--

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014

LOOKS LIKE A REPEAT FOR THE FORECAST AREA FOR SUNDAY AFTN...SO
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION INCLUDING THE MAIN TAF
SITES OF KCOS...KPUB AND KALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS. ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY
MIDDAY...SO MENTIONED VCTS FOR ALL THREE SITES BETWEEN 20Z AND
03Z. MOORE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...MOORE


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