Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 200512
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1112 PM MDT Tue Sep 19 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 601 PM MDT Tue Sep 19 2017

Red Flag Warning allowed to expire. Conditions are still near
critical levels at this time but will gradually subside as
humidities increase and winds decrease.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 244 PM MDT Tue Sep 19 2017

Currently...

A warm and windy day across the region this afternoon. A band of
wave clouds have kept temps down a bit over a good part of the
plains. Temps mainly in the 80s lower elevations with a few L90s
over far e CO. Winds were gusting to 25 to 35 mph most places.
Mountains were gusting in the 60s.

Tonight...

Winds will decrease as sun sets. Cool front will begin to cross the
region during the 03-04 UTC time frame. winds will be a bit gusty
from the north after fropa, however winds closer to the I-25
corridor will remain light and eventually shift to the east as the
evening progresses. No precip, or clouds for that matter, are
expected. Temps tonight will fall into the U40s most areas.

Tomorrow...

Dry and cooler across the fcst area. Sfc flow will transition to
enhanced southeasterly upslope but with very dry conditions no
precip is anticipated. Max temps will reach into the M70s to L80s
across the plains, with 70s in the valleys.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 244 PM MDT Tue Sep 19 2017

Fire weather conditions early in the extended period will give way
to more active and wet conditions across the region for the middle
and later portions of the extended period. Cooler temperatures and
lowering snow levels are also expected later in the extended
period.

Wednesday night through Thursday...broad southwest flow will
increase across the region Wednesday night into Thursday. Mixing
on Thursday will lead to gusty winds and reduced humidity values
across the San Luis Valley and Eastern Plains with dangerous fire
weather conditions expected. Did not issue a fire weather watch at
this time, as we wanted to let current highlights play out, but a
watch will likely be needed this evening for Thursday.
Temperatures will remain hot with upper 80s to mid 90s across the
lower elevations. No precipitation is expected through this
period.

Friday...an upper level trough is forecast to start digging south
over the Great Basin and will be out weather maker through early
next week. Southwest flow on Friday will remain strong across the
Plains, but increasing moisture will help keep humidity values in
the 15 to 20 percent range. That being said, near critical fire
weather conditions are forecast to exist Friday afternoon across
much of the San Luis Valley and Eastern Plains. Extreme caution is
advised with any outdoor burning. A lead upper disturbance is
forecast to move across the region by Friday afternoon. Models in
agreement with a dryline developing over the far Eastern Plains
with thunderstorms developing by mid to late afternoon along the
boundary. CAPE looks marginal with decent shear, so one or two
storms could become strong, or perhaps severe near the Kansas
border Friday afternoon and evening. This will need to be
monitored closely. Temperatures will remain warm with 80s and 90s
across the Plains.

Saturday...the upper system out west will continue to dig across
the Great Basin. A cold front is forecast to stall across the
region with several boundaries set up across the region. Upper
level energy in southwest flow will combine with the boundaries to
produce showers and thunderstorms by Saturday afternoon across the
region. There could be locally heavy rainfall associated with
stronger storms and areas of upslope flow, especially along the
Palmer Divide. Temperatures will be cooler with 70s to lower 80s
across the region.

Sunday through Tuesday...the upper level trough over the west will
start to slowly move east into Utah late in the weekend into early
next week. Models in agreement with a prolonged period of upslope
northeast to easterly flow Sunday into Monday. This will likely
keep widespread showers across the region through the at least
Monday. Temperatures will be much cooler with 60s and lower 70s
for highs. Overnight lows in the 40s are expected across the
Plains Sunday and Monday nights. Over the mountains, the cooler
air will lower snow levels Sunday into Monday. Locations above
9000 feet could see several inches of snowfall, with winter
conditions expected over the higher mountain passes. This will
need to be monitored closely. By Tuesday, slightly drier air will
warp around the upper disturbance with drier conditions expected
across the region. A few showers are possible over the mountains,
but the Plains at this time look to remain dry once activity moves
east of the area Tuesday morning.  Mozley

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1112 PM MDT Tue Sep 19 2017

VFR all sites. Gusty southerly winds will develop by Wednesday
afternoon at KCOS and KPUB with surface high pressure over the
high plains. At KALS, gusty southwest winds aloft will mix to the
surface during the day on Wednesday. --PGW--

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...PGW


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