Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 122207

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
307 PM MST Tue Dec 12 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 307 PM MST Tue Dec 12 2017

Dry northwest flow aloft will remain over the area tonight and into
Wed.  Winds tonight will start to increase, mainly over the higher
elevations, but some of the lower elevations east of the mountains
are expected to see westerly surface winds develop overnight.  In
areas where the westerly winds develop, overnight temps should be
relatively mild.

Wed morning a weather disturbance will be moving from NE into KS and
will send a front thru eastern CO.  This front will bring northerly
winds to eastern portions of CO, and the winds could be a bit gusty
over the far southeast plains. The winds will cause an elevated fire
weather concern, but the RH values are expected to be too high for
any fire weather highlights. At this time, it looks like the winds
will decrease thru the afternoon hours, and will become easterly
along the I-25 corridor. It looks like the weather will remain dry
across southeast and south central CO thru Wed afternoon, however
increasing cloud cover is expected, spreading from north to south
over the area as a weather disturbance moves southward from WY
toward CO disturbance will be approaching the state from the north.
High temps on Wed are expected to be cooler than today, with mostly
50s acrs the southeast plains and the upper Arkansas River valley,
and in the 40s or around 50 in the San Luis Valley.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 307 PM MST Tue Dec 12 2017

Wednesday night and Thursday...Latest model runs indicate an
intensification of the next incoming shortwave Wed night through
Thu, which will bring a shot of colder air as well as some pcpn for
a good portion of the forecast area. Snow showers will increase
across the central mts and Rampart Range by midnight Wed night, then
as the shortwave drops to the southeast showers will spread across
all of the higher terrain as well as much of the plains through the
day Thu. Snowfall amounts are expected to remain minimal, with an
inch or two of new snow possible over the higher peaks. Pcpn will
then taper off by midnight Thu night. Highs are forecast to only
climb into the upper 30s to mid 40s on Thu, then min temps Thu night
will likely be the coldest of the extended period with readings in
the single digits for the high valleys, and teens to lower 20s for
the plains.

Friday...Temporary ridging over the western US will again produce
dry and slightly warmer conditions across the state for Fri, with
highs in the mid 40s to mid 50s for the high valleys, and 50s to
near 60F for the plains. The next upper disturbance to affect
Colorado will be crossing the Pacific NW Fri evening.

Saturday through Monday...The next incoming shortwave will follow a
similar path, bringing the chance for pcpn to initially the higher
terrain Sat morning and then the remainder of the forecast area
through Sun. Increasing westerly sfc winds will help boost temps on
Sat into the 40s to around 50F for the high valleys, and into the
50s for the plains. A sfc cold front late Sat will drop temps on Sun
into the 30s to mid 40s, then ridging for Mon will bring a return of
dry conditions and 5 to 10 degrees of warming. Moore


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 307 PM MST Tue Dec 12 2017

VFR conditions are expected at KCOS, KPUB and KALS thru Wed
afternoon.  KCOS should see the wind become northerly this evening
and then increase to between 10 and 15 kts late tonight through Wed
morning. Wed afternoon the winds should then become northeast to
east at KCOS around 10 kts.  KPUB should see west to northwest winds
tonight at 10 kts or less, then Wed morning the winds should become
more northerly and then go easterly in the afternoon, mostly under
12 kts.  KALS is expected to have winds under 8 kts thru the
forecast period.




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