Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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000
FXUS65 KPUB 092119
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
319 PM MDT WED JUL 9 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM MDT WED JUL 9 2014

ANOTHER ROUND OF TSRA OVER THE AREA TODAY...THOUGH SO FAR STORMS
HAVE BEEN WEAKER AND HIGHER BASED THAN YESTERDAY`S ACTIVITY...AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE HAS MIXED AT SOME LOCATIONS ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR. STILL
SOME FAIRLY STRONG INSTABILITY LEFT NEAR THE KS BORDER...WHERE
DEWPOINTS HAVE STAYED IN THE 50S...LEADING TO CAPES IN THE 1-2K J/KG
RANGE. FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...EXPECT SCT
TSRA TO CONTINUE OVER THE MTS...WITH A FEW STORMS DRIFTING ACROSS
THE VALLEYS AND INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR. LAST COUPLE RUNS OF THE HRRR
SUGGEST STORM INTENSITY WON`T BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...ESPECIALLY AS
STORMS MOVE AWAY FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN. STILL...COULD BE A FEW
SMALL POCKETS OF BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...MAINLY NEAR THE NM BORDER WHERE
INSTABILITY IS A LITTLE BETTER. OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS...WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER
NERN CO BUILDING SOUTHWARD DURING THE EVENING...AS FAIRLY STRONG
SHEAR AND HEALTHY SURFACE S-SE FLOW MAY KEEP STORMS GOING PAST
SUNSET. HRRR SUPPORTS THIS IDEA WITH A FEW CELLS MOVING ACROSS
KIOWA/PROWERS COUNTIES 03Z-04Z. OVERNIGHT...MOST ACTIVITY WILL DIE
DURING THE EVENING...THOUGH WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS GOING OVER THE
SAN JUANS WHERE MODELS SUGGEST DEEPER MOISTURE AND A FEW SHOWERS MAY
LINGER PAST MIDNIGHT.

ON THURSDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS FROM TODAY...THOUGH WITH
SURFACE TROUGH PUSHING SLIGHTLY EAST TOWARD THE KS BORDER SUSPECT A
LITTLE BETTER MIXING WILL OCCUR ALONG AND EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...LEADING TO WEAKER/FEWER STORMS ON THE PLAINS/I-25
CORRIDOR. MOUNTAIN ACTIVITY LOOKS LITTLE CHANGED...WITH DEEPEST
MOISTURE ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE ONCE AGAIN. MAX TEMPS WILL
LIKELY CREEP UP A FEW DEGREES OVER EASTERN SECTIONS WITH BETTER
MIXING...WITH READINGS NEAR OR A LITTLE OVER 100F FROM PUEBLO
EASTWARD.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM MDT WED JUL 9 2014

THE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE VERY LITTLE AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MONSOON
MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE RIDGE WILL PROVIDE THE FUEL FOR A DAILY
SHOT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONVECTION WILL BE MAINLY
DIURNAL...BUT MAY START A BIT EARLIER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING
THE LATE MORNING HRS...AS WELL AS LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO BE SCATTERED OVER THE MTS...LIKELY OVER
THE PEAKS...AND MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND SAN
LUIS VALLEY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE NORTH
LATE THU WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT DOWN INTO EASTERN CO EARLY
FRI...THEN A REINFORCING BLAST OF COOLER MORE MOIST AIR COMES IN ON
SAT. THIS MEANS VERY WARM TEMPS FOR THE FORECAST AREA ON FRI...NEAR
NORMAL LEVELS ON SAT...THEN COOLER ON SUN. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN
SLIGHTLY HIGHER PCPN CHANCES FOR THE E PLAINS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
I25 CORRIDOR...FOR SAT AND SUN.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LONG RANGE MODELS INTRODUCE A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT DROPS OUT OF CANADA AND HEADS TOWARDS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON MON...THEN SWEEPS IT TOWARDS THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES BY MIDWEEK. IF THIS OCCURS...IT MIGHT PUSH THE UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES MORE TO THE SW. FOR NOW...EXPECTED DAY TO DAY
CONVECTION CHANCES DO NOT SEEM TO CHANGE MUCH...SAVE FOR COOLER
TEMPS ON WED. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 319 PM MDT WED JUL 9 2014

SCT TSRA OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING...WITH
STORMS DRIFTING ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS...INCLUDING ALL TAF SITES
21-02Z. IN GENERAL...WITH LESS MOISTURE TODAY TSRA SHOULD BE WEAK
AND HIGHER BASED AND ONLY VERY BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
UNDER THE STRONGER STORMS. HAVE INCLUDED VCTS IN ALL TAFS FROM
20Z-02Z...THEN VFR CONDITIONS MOST LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT THROUGH THU
MORNING. VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS AGAIN ON THURSDAY...WITH TSRA
OVER THE MOUNTAINS DRIFTING TOWARD TAF SITES AFTER 20Z.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...PETERSEN



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