Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 191720

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1020 AM MST Sun Feb 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 330 AM MST Sun Feb 19 2017

An upper level trof will move northeastward over CO this afternoon
and tonight, and will move east of the state for Mon.  Pcpn will
move into and increase thru the morning hours acrs the southwest CO
mtns.  In The afternoon, pcpn will spread to the central CO mtns and
is expected to move into the eastern mtns as well.  By evening some
of the showers may also move off the mtns and along the I-25
corridor. At this time, the NAM and GFS are keeping the southeast
plains dry, but the HRRR hints at the possibility of some showers
this afternoon. The mtns along the Continental Dvd should see a few
to several inches of snow accumulation today.  Will leave the winter
wx advisory for the eastern San Juan mtns in effect. Snow
accumulations this afternoon, evening and into the late night hours
acrs the central mtns will likely meet advisory criteria, so will
also issue a highlight for forecast zones 58 and 60.  Temps today
will be above average in most areas, with highs in the 60s acrs the
southeast plains and in the 40s to lower 50s in the high valleys.

The mtns areas, especially along the Continental Dvd will continue to
see snow this evening, with maybe just some scattered showers ovr
the eastern mtns, with possibly some isold showers along the I-25
corridor.  By late night, as the upper trof moves ovr far eastern
CO, pcpn wl decrease and then end ovr most locations, with maybe
just a few lingering showers over some of the mtns toward Mon

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 330 AM MST Sun Feb 19 2017

Monday-Wednesday...Moderate to strong northwest flow aloft across
the region on Monday moderates and becomes more westerly Tuesday, as
upper trough continues to lift out across the Northern High Plains
and flat upper ridging builds across the region on Tuesday. Westerly
flow aloft increases across the region Tuesday night and Wednesday
as embedded short wave translate east across the Rockies ahead of an
Eastern Pacific system moving onshore across the Pac NW Wednesday.

Breezy northwest winds mixing down behind the passing Northern High
Plains system Monday morning and afternoon to lead to increased fire
danger across the area, especially the far southeast Plains.
However, winds do not look strong enough or persist long enough for
any fire weather highlights at this time. Breezy westerly downslope
winds expected over and near the higher terrain on Tuesday, and with
warming aloft under the building ridge, expecting record to near
record warmth across the eastern plains on Tuesday. Records for
February 21st are 70F at COS set in 1927, 75F at PUB last set in
1982, and 59F in ALS set in 1935.  The warm temps and breezy
conditions will again lead to heightened fire danger, but does not
look like critical fire weather conditions will be met across
eastern Colorado on Tuesday. Latest models differ on the southern
extent of the passing waves Tuesday night and Wednesday, and went
with model consensus which has slight pops across the ContDvd
Tuesday night and increasing chances of light snow through the day
Wednesday.  Further east, expecting dry and breezy to windy
conditions with possible critical fire weather conditions on
Wednesday. With the winds, mild overnight lows expected for Tuesday
night and only slightly cooler highs for Wednesday.

Thursday-Saturday...Models in fairly good agreement of next Eastern
Pacific system digging across the Great Basin Wedensday night and
lifting out across northern Colorado through the day Thursday and
into the Northern High Plains Thursday night and Friday. The
projected movement of this system will bring a quick shot of snow to
the higher terrain of the ContDVD Thursday, with breezy to windy
westerly winds to eastern Colorado once again.  Could see some wrap
around precipitation Thursday night and early Friday, mainly north
and east of the Highway 50 corridor, with breezy to windy north to
northwest winds and much cooler temperatures expected across eastern
Colorado on Friday. Drier and warmer westerly flow expected across
the region on Saturday, ahead of the another system progged to move
across the area on Sunday.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1014 AM MST Sun Feb 19 2017

VFR conditions expected at all taf sites today and tonight.
Isolated -shra may move off the higher terrain and across KALS and
KCOS terminals late this afternoon into the evening, though cigs
and vis will likely remain VFR, even with precip. S-SW winds at
KALS will gust over 20 kts this afternoon, with S-SE winds gusting
to around 20 kts at KPUB and KCOS into early this evening. Over
the mountains, much of the higher terrain along the Continental
Divide will remain obscured by clouds and snow through midnight,
with improving conditions toward Mon morning.


Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM MST this evening for COZ068.

Winter Weather Advisory until 2 AM MST Monday for COZ058-060.



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