Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 110543
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1043 PM MST Fri Nov 10 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 246 PM MST Fri Nov 10 2017

...Low Level Moisture Persistent over Parts of the Plains...

Cool, moist low level usplope flow has remained persistent over
parts of the plains this afternoon, primarily from the Pueblo area
eastward. The low clouds and fog have dissipated in most areas but
they still linger over the far eastern plains, adjacent to Kansas.
Tonight, we will likely see a resurgence of the low clouds and fog
westward up the Arkansas River Valley to about the Pueblo area.  As
you head north, west or south of Pueblo, low clouds and fog should
quickly become less of an issue.  Hi res models keep a wedge of
moisture locked into the lower Arkansas Valley until about mid
morning Saturday before flushing everything eastward in the
afternoon.  Where the low clouds and fog have lingered today,
temperatures have struggled to climb.  The Arkansas Valley and far
eastern plains have struggled the most with afternoon temperatures
remaining well below average.  As you climb out of the Arkansas
River Valley, heading north, west or south of Pueblo, temperatures
have done better, generally climbing to near or even above average
levels.  This includes the mountains and high valleys as well as
areas adjacent to the mountains including Colorado Springs, Colorado
City, Walsenburg and Trinidad.  There should be less of an issue
getting temperatures to warm across the plains tomorrow.  Forecast
models show a pretty good push of dry, westerly flow coming off the
mountains in the afternoon.  Hopefully, this will push the last of
the low level moisture eastward into Kansas.  If that happens, all
areas of southern Colorado can expect a day of pleasant fall temps
with afternoon highs about 10 degrees above average.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 246 PM MST Fri Nov 10 2017

An upper level ridge will be building over the area Sat night and
into Sun, with dry weather expected.  High temps on Sun are forecast
to be a little above average in the high valley locations.  In the
wake of a front acrs the southeast plains, high temps should be a
bit below average.

A weak disturbance moves acrs the area Sun night, but at this time
it looks dry acrs southern CO.  A flat upper ridge will still be
over the area on Mon and Tue, and high temps will be warmer and all
areas will see above average readings.

Tue night an upper level disturbance moves from Wy into NE and it
sends a front into southeast CO. The weather will still be dry, but
temps acrs the eastern plains will be cooler on Wed, while temps in
the high valley areas remain similar to those on Tue.

Wed night a stronger disturbance will move into the Great Basin,
this system then moves acrs CO and WY on Thu.  Ahead of this system
Wed night, pcpn will move into the Cont Dvd.  On Thu pcpn increases
over the central CO mtns, with just some light pcpn over the
southwest mtns.  By late Thu night pcpn is expected to end. Dry
weather is expected acrs southern CO on Fri, with high temps around
average.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1037 PM MST Fri Nov 10 2017

IFR to LIFR conditions with stratus/fog will spread westward
across the plains overnight with the possibility of brief IFR
conditions at KPUB before winds shift around from a westerly
component towards early morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions
expected at KCOS and KALS. Breezy west winds around 15 kts will
spread into all three terminals by afternoon. Another cold front
will shift winds from the northwest then north for KCOS and KPUB
during the late afternoon/early evening. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...KT



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