Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 121719

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1119 AM MDT Tue Sep 12 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 431 AM MDT Tue Sep 12 2017

...Little Change in the Pattern...

The weather remains in a holding pattern.  Once again today, we have
above average precipitable water over the area.  Satellite estimated
Total Precipitable Water values are running above average, ranging
from about 120 to 150 percent of average uniformly across the
forecast area.  We are also still dealing with a very slow moving
upper level disturbance that continues to linger across the area.
Once afternoon heating gets underway, we can expect another round of
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms to develop.  This
time around, models are favoring the mountains for the bulk of the
activity with possibly some spillover onto the plains, especially
across the Palmer Divide and El Paso County toward evening.  Primary
storm threats today will include lightning, gusty winds to around 50
mph, locally heavy rain and spotty small hail.  Temperatures will
continue a little above average for this time of year.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 431 AM MDT Tue Sep 12 2017

Latest models in decent agreement of the persistent upper ridge
across the Rockies breaking down through the middle of the week,
with increasing southwest flow aloft projected across the region
through the weekend, as a deep upper trough moving across the Pac
Northwest Coast slowly lifts out across the Great Basin and Rockies.

Models continue to suggest flow becoming weak westerly through the
day Wednesday, ahead of Eastern Pacific energy lifting out across
the southern California Coast and moving into the Great Basin. There
remains enough residual moisture to support scattered afternoon
showers and storms across the higher terrain on Wednesday, with some
storms moving off the mountains and out across the I-25 Corridor and
the southeast Plains through the late afternoon and evening hours.
Southwest flow aloft continues to increase through the day Thursday,
as Great Basin wave weakens and gets absorbed by a stronger upper
system digging across the Pac Northwest Coast. Models continue to
keep best chances of showers and storms across the Continental Dvd
on Thursday, with a few possible storms across the far southeast
plains in the afternoon, with convergence along a developing lee
trough. Friday looks relatively dry across the area with chances of
showers increasing across central mountains later Friday night and
Saturday as the stronger system digging across the Great Basin lifts
out across the Northern Rockies on Saturday. This system looks cold
enough to bring some light snow the highest peaks of the Central
Mountains, though the best chances of any precipitation look to stay
north of PUB`s CWA. Could see a few showers across the area on
Sunday within southerly return flow behind Saturday`s passing front
with models showing another Pac Northwest system digging across the
Great Basin early next week. Temperatures look to be at to slightly
above seasonal levels through the end of the work week, with
slightly cooler temperatures expected for the weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1107 AM MDT Tue Sep 12 2017

VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hrs at KCOS, KPUB and
KALS. There will be the possibility of showers/tstms in the
vicinity of the forecast sites late this afternoon and this
evening, with KCOS and KALS having the best chance. Will not
include VCTS in KPUB forecast as chances look too low at this




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