Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 201051
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
451 AM MDT FRI MAY 20 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 451 AM MDT Fri May 20 2016

Increased coverage of stratus and fog across Pueblo county through
the early morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 338 AM MDT Fri May 20 2016

Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis indicating
generally weak west to southwest flow aloft across the state with
upper level ridging building across the Rockies ahead of broad upper
trough digging across the West Coast at this time. Water vapor
imagery is also indicating mid and upper level moisture streaming
out ahead of this system across the Desert Southwest and into the
Great Basin.  At the surface, a deepening LHX low and associated east
to southeast low level winds across the far southeast plains is
keeping dew pts in the upper 30s to upper 40s, and has helped to
develop stratus from eastern portions of El Paso county through
portions of Otero, Kiowa, Prowers and Baca counties at this time.

Today and Tonight...

No big changes to ongoing forecast, with slowly increasing southwest
flow aloft expected across the region as the West Coast upper trough
continues to dig into the Desert Southwest, pushing the upper ridge
across the far eastern plains and into western Kansas tonight.
Warming aloft, denoted by WAA clouds spreading into western CO at
this time, will continue to warm temperatures back to at and above
seasonal levels today, with highs in the 70s and 80s across the
lower elevations and mainly 50s and 60s across the higher terrain.
Models continue to indicate enough moisture in place to support
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across the area this
afternoon and evening, with the best coverage expected across the
central mountains into the Pikes Peak region. Surface low pressure
to persist across the plains today, with breezy east to southeast
winds helping to advect low level moisture across the far southeast
plains into northeastern CO through the afternoon...where latest SPC
outlook has a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms today. With the
upper ridge building across the southeast plains, convection looks
to be capped today, however, storms which can develop across the
Pikes Peak region could quickly strengthen as they move north and
east off the Palmer Dvd and into northeastern CO.  Convection to
diminish and end after sun set with clearing skies overnight, save
the far se plains, where could see some stratus develop once again
overnight.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 338 AM MDT Fri May 20 2016

Western U.S. upper low drifts slowly back northward on
Saturday, keeping deep southwest flow in place across all of
southern Colorado. Moisture across the region looks very limited,
with just some weak, high-based convection possible over the
central mountains. Over the plains, dryline will be lurking near
the KS border, but most model guidance keeps deeper
moisture/instability just east of the state line, and will go with
a dry forecast over the plains for now. Deep mixing Saturday will
lead to very warm and breezy conditions area-wide, and a few
locations on the plains will approach 90f by late afternoon. Upper
low tracks northeastward into Canada Sunday, with southwest flow
continuing across Colorado. Dryline appears to mix well east of
the KS border in the afternoon, and will keep pops out of the
plains once again as dry air mass spreads eastward from the
mountains. Mid levels do moisten slightly by afternoon over the
higher terrain, and may be just enough instability for some high
based -tsra, though with dry surface layer, precip will likely be
very light. All of the area will see another day of very warm and
windy conditions, though max temps may drift downward a couple
degf as heights fall slightly by Sat evening.

Weak cold front drops south through the plains Sunday evening,
though any upslope surge should be short-lived as new energy drops
into the western U.S. upper trough, with southwest flow reforming
a lee surface low over ern CO during the day Mon. Moisture remains
limited Mon, with again only a few high based mountain storms
possible. Pattern persists Tue/Wed as wrn trough continues to
deepen, keeping sw flow aloft in place with only limited moisture
across the area. Models hint at occasional shallow moisture
sloshing into ern CO both Tue and Wed mornings, before mixing
quickly eastward as dry sw flow reaches the surface later in the
day. Will keep mainly just some low pops in place over the
mountains for both Tue and Wed afternoons, though again precip
coverage/intensity will be rather sparse/weak. Deeper moisture
makes a better push into southern CO Thu/Fri as energy from the
western trough finally begins to push eastward and gives cold
front a stronger shove southward. Still some timing differences
among various models, but main message is a gradual increase in
precip chances both days as moisture and lift both ramp up. Max
temps Mon-Wed will stay rather warm, then drift downward slowly
late week as cooler air filters south.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 338 AM MDT Fri May 20 2016

COS, PUB and ALS should remain VFR for the next 24 hours. There is
some patchy stratus across eastern El Paso county this morning,
though this should not make into COS terminal. There also remains
a low probability of a few afternoon and evening storms over the
eastern mts and Palmer Divide, but do not expect them to impact
the VC COS. Winds will be a bit stronger today with surface winds
10-20 KTS generally from the SE over the plains and S-SW over the
San Luis Valley. Convection to diminish after sun set with
clearing skies overnight.


&&

.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...MW



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