Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 300949
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
349 AM MDT TUE AUG 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 342 AM MDT Tue Aug 30 2016

Currently...a few light showers have popped up from time to time
early this morning across the eastern mountains, eastward into the
plains.  These showers are hit and miss, and dissipate quickly. More
persistent light rainfall is occurring along the Kansas border and
will continue to do so through the morning hours.  Temperatures are
cool with generally mid to upper 50s across the lower elevations.

Today...broad high pressure aloft will continue with embedded energy
and moisture  trapped underneath across Colorado.  This will lead to
another round of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms
across the region.  Expect initial development over the mountains by
late morning to early afternoon.  Models favor locations over the
Palmer Divide and Raton Mesa by mid afternoon.  Most high-res models
have the highest concentration of showers and thunderstorms over the
southern Sangre de Cristo mountains, east into the Raton Mesa for
this afternoon and evening.  This area is located near a stronger
disturbance drifting over northeastern New Mexico.  The main threats
will be small hail, generally half an inch in diameter or less, and
locally heavy rainfall.  Weak steering flows aloft will lead to slow
storm movements, and flash flooding will be a threat, especially on
area burn scars, and locations already saturated from previous heavy
rainfall from the past couple of days.  Afternoon high temperatures
will remain on the cooler side with generally 70s across the plains.

Tonight...expect showers and thunderstorms to drift across the
plains through the evening hours before dissipating overnight.  The
exception will likely be out near the Kansas border where light
rainfall will persist into the early morning hours.  Over the
mountains, showers and thunderstorms should dissipate with sunset.
Overnight lows will fall into the mid 50s to lower 60s across the
region.  Mozley

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 342 AM MDT Tue Aug 30 2016

...Monsoon Continues through Friday then Decreasing...

Models show Colorado under monsoonal flow under large upper high
pressure ridge through the week.  This will result in a continued
pattern of daily afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms
with temperatures pretty close to average for this time of year.
The primary threats from most storms during the period will be
lightning, wind gusts to around 50 mph, locally heavy rain and
small hail.  However, a few storms could result in 60 mph winds,
hail to 1 inch diameter and flash flooding.  The most likely
spots for flash flooding will be urban areas and burn scars.

This weekend, a Pacific weather system will start to make it`s way
inland and across the northern Rockies.  This will shove the
monsoonal moisture plume eastward as drier, Pacific air moves in
behind it. Consequently, storm coverage and intensities will drop
off. Additionally, temperatures will climb back to average or above
in most areas.  So, a few more days with decent storm chances then
warmer and drier for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 342 AM MDT Tue Aug 30 2016

generally VFR conditions this morning with mid to high level
clouds across the region. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop over the mountains and spread into the San
Luis Valley and Palmer Divide regions for this afternoon. KALS and
KCOS have the highest probabilities of seeing a thunderstorm this
afternoon, especially in the 20-04z time frame. Reduced CIGS and
VIS are expected with any storms that pass over the terminals. An
afternoon and evening thunderstorm will also be possible at KPUB,
but confidence in occurrence is not as high. Mozley

&&

.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...MOZLEY



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