


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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349 FXUS62 KMLB 152325 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 725 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 242 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025 - Flood Watch continues through 8 PM this evening for isolated flash flooding potential across Lake and Volusia counties southward through Osceola and Brevard counties. - Daily rain chances remain high, up to around 70-80% through midweek as low pressure continues to pull deep moisture over the peninsula as it moves into the Gulf. - A more seasonal pattern returns late week, with rain chances returning closer to normal by Friday. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 242 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Currently-Tonight...Low level circulation of Invest 93L is pushing onshore north of Volusia County and remains disorganized. N/NE shear has kept persistent bands of rain and isolated storms S/SW of the center across areas near to north of a line from Orlando to the Cape. Some localized heavy rainfall totals have occurred with the heavier showers and storms, including up to 5-7 inches in northern Brevard County near Mims and Turnbull where a Flash Flood Warning was issued earlier today. As low shifts westward across FL into tonight, this persistent rainfall will also gradually transition west into this evening. Additional, scattered showers and storms will be possible farther southeast of the I-4 corridor with daytime heating through late afternoon/early evening. A Flood Watch continues through 8 PM from Brevard/Osceola counties northward through Lake and Volusia for the continued potential for locally heavy to excessive rainfall totals up to 5-7 inches that may lead to isolated flash flooding. This activity will then diminish into this evening, with isolated onshore moving showers and possibly a storm or two along the coast from the Cape southward overnight. Lows will be in the low to mid 70s. Wednesday-Thursday...As Invest 93L moves westward into the northeast Gulf, NHC is still giving the system a medium (40%) chance of tropical development into mid to late week as it moves across the northeastern and north-central Gulf. Across east central FL, waves of deeper moisture (PW values up to 2-2.3") will lift northward across the area, keeping higher rain chances in the forecast (up to 70-80%). Scattered to numerous showers and storms will develop each afternoon and evening, with greatest coverage focusing inland. A few stronger storms will be possible each day, with the main threats including frequent lightning strikes, wind gusts of 40-50 mph, and torrential downpours leading to minor flooding. Hot and humid conditions are forecast each day. Highs will reach the upper 80s to low 90s, with peak afternoon heat index values around 100-105F Wednesday and 102-107F Thursday. Friday-Monday...(Previous Discussion) Broad mid level ridging slides over Florida late week and through the weekend. At the surface, the western flank of the Atlantic high extends across central Florida and into the Gulf. A more summerlike pattern of scattered afternoon showers and storms returns, guided by the sea breeze circulation. High temperatures warm into the low to mid 90s each day, with peak heat index values forecast to range 100-106 degrees. && .MARINE... Issued at 242 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Tonight-Wednesday...An area of low pressure (Invest 93L) is pushing onshore across the northeast coast of FL and will continue westward through tonight before exiting into the NE Gulf Wednesday where it currently has a medium chance (40%) for tropical development into mid to late week. Poor boating conditions will continue into tonight, mainly over the offshore waters where S/SE winds will be up to 15-20 knots. Winds will then remain out of the S/SE around 10-15 knots into Wednesday. Seas will be around 2-3 feet for much of the period, except up to 4 feet offshore Volusia County into tonight. Lingering deep moisture across the area will continue development of at least scattered showers and storms over the waters, especially overnight tonight into Wednesday morning. Thursday-Sunday...Subtropical ridge axis will dominate the weather pattern late week into this weekend. Winds will remain out of the southeast through late week and then S/SE into the weekend. Seas will continue to range around 2-3 feet for much of the period, with more normal shower and storm coverage forecast. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFs) Issued at 720 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025 An unusual amount of uncertainty for rain chances overnight, as Invest 93L crosses north Florida on the way to the Gulf. CAMs continue to struggle to resolve convection. However, expect to see diminishing coverage of showers and storms over the next hour or so, with drier conditions then prevailing overnight. The exception looks to be the Treasure Coast (VRB/FPR/SUA), where models suggest SHRA continuing through much of the period. Overall, VFR conditions prevailing outside of convection. Wednesday, a return to the standard sea breeze regime is forecast, with a collision over the interior in the afternoon. Have VCTS developing along the coast in the morning, before moving inland through the afternoon. S/SE flow prevailing, remaining around 12kts or less. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 74 89 76 90 / 20 60 10 70 MCO 74 91 76 92 / 30 80 20 80 MLB 76 90 78 89 / 30 70 20 70 VRB 73 90 75 90 / 30 70 20 70 LEE 74 90 76 92 / 40 80 20 80 SFB 74 91 76 93 / 30 70 20 80 ORL 74 91 76 93 / 30 80 20 80 FPR 73 89 75 89 / 30 70 30 70 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Weitlich AVIATION...Leahy