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000
FXUS62 KMLB 281536
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1030 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING CONTINUES IN THE PSL/STUART AREA...

CURRENT...AFTER STARTING ITS INITIAL INLAND PUSH ONSHORE ALONG THE
TREASURE COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT...MILDER AIR ASCD WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH AXIS HAS OVERSPREAD AREAS SOUTH
AND EAST OF I-4 THIS MORNING. QSTNRY CLUSTER OF HEAVY SHOWERS/STORMS
HAS PRODUCED 3-6" OF RAINFALL ACROSS SRN MARTIN/NRN SAINT LUCIE COS
SINCE IT BEGAN BEFORE SUNRISE. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO HAVE FORMED
ALONG CONVG BAND ASCD WITH LAST THU`S FRONTAL BDRY... WHICH HAS
DRIFTED NORTH SOME SINCE FRI. TO THE NORTH...WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS
WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND SPRINKLES/DRIZZLE PREVAIL. TEMPS HAVE
RISEN TO ~65-70F IN THE WARMER E-ENE FLOW OF MARINE AIR...WHILE
STILL IN THE U50S-60F IN MORE NRLY FLOW. ALOFT...THE UPPER FLOW OF
80-100KT IS GENERALLY DIVGT WITH A FEW WEAK H50 VORT RIPPLES
EMBEDDED IN THE FAST ZONAL FLOW.

REMAINDER OF TODAY...MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE ONGOING LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTH. WHILE THE STRONGEST CELLS HAVE SLID
TO THE SOUTH OVER THE SHORT TERM...RADAR INDICATES AT LEAST MODERATE
ACROSS THAT AREA. THE LOCAL AIR MASS HAS BECOME NEARLY SATURATED
FROM THE SFC UP THROUGH H50...WITH ABOUT 1.6" PWATS AT MFL/TBW/XMR.
WITH ONSHORE FLOW INCREASING AREAWIDE...EXPECT THAT THE BOUNDARY AND
ASCD CONVG WILL BECOME MORE DIFFUSE THIS AFTERNOON...THEREBY EASING
THE LOCALIZED FLOODING THREAT IN THAT AREA SOME...WHILE LEADING TO
INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION. MAIN
CHGS WILL BE TO INCREASE POPS FOR MARINE/ST LUCIE...WHILE KEEPING
MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND SMALL CHANCE FOR TS ACROSS THE SRN
FOUR COUNTIES.

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD MVFR BKN-OVC015-025 WITH LCL IFR OVC004-008
AND 1/2SM IN +SHRA...MAINLY AROUND SUA. WITH SUCH MOIST LOWER LEVELS
AND A SLOWLY NWD ADVANCING BDRY...EXPECT MVFR CIGS MOST OF THE DAY
...AND POSSIBLY WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...MORNING BUOY AND C-MAN OBS INDICATE A SOLID 20-25KT OF E-
ENE WIND WITH SEAS 6-8FT NEAR SHORE AND 8-9FT OFFSHORE. WILL MAKE
SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO SEA HGT GRIDS TO ACCT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.
SCA REMAINS UNCHANGED.

&&

UPDATE/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX....WEITLICH
PUBLIC SERVICE/RADAR...GLITTO

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015/

SUNDAY...INVERTED TROUGH NEAR THE EAST COAST WILL PUSH SLOWLY
ONSHORE INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH LOW LVL MOISTURE MOVING INLAND. WILL
FORECAST SHOWER CHANCES IN THE 30-40 PCT RANGE WITH ACTIVITY
CONCENTRATING ACROSS THE INTERIOR IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT AT H5 AROUND 30 KNOTS WITH H5 TEMPS AROUND -11 DEGS C AND
MARGINAL CAPE MAY ALLOW A FOR A STRAY LTG STORM OR TWO ACROSS THE
SRN INTERIOR IN THE LATE AFTN. ROUGH SURF AND MODERATE NE SWELLS
WILL PRODUCE A MODERATE TO HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK AT THE BEACHES.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S ALONG THE VOLUSIA COAST
TO THE LOWER 80S FROM ORLANDO SOUTH TO THE TREASURE COAST AND SRN
INTERIOR SECTIONS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...WILL CONTINUE EVENING SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN INTERIOR SECTIONS. LIGHT WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND LIGHT
NE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SHOULD ALLOW SOME LATE NIGHT FOG TO DEVELOP
MAINLY ACROSS SECTIONS.

MONDAY...GFS AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE THE NAM AND ECMWF INDICATE A
BACK DOOR WEAK FRONT AND WIND SHIFT WILL OCCUR AS HIGH PRESSURE
NOSES DOWN THE SE ATLC COAST AND WINDS BECOME N-NE IN IN THE
AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD BE A DRY DAY WITH MEAN LAYER MOISTURE
DECREASING. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER ALONG THE VOLUSIA COAST IN THE
LOWER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE SRN INTERIOR.

TUE-THU...ANOTHER SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE MID ATLC EARLY TUE
ALLOWING FLOW LOW LVL FLOW TO VEER TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AND
SOUTHERLY ON WEDNESDAY. THE 500 MB MID LVL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS S
FL WITH SUMMER LIKE 588 DM HEIGHTS REACHING LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE
COAST TUE AND INTO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE INTERIOR. SHOULD SEE
EVEN WARMER READINGS WEDNESDAY AROUND 80 ALONG THE COAST TO THE MID
80S OVER THE INTERIOR. SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT WILL PUSH
HIGHS INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S THU AFTERNOON WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

THU NIGHT-SAT...00Z GFS/ECMWF COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT SHOWING
THE NEXT FRONT SLIDING THROUGH THE AREA THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH A
QUICK TRANSITION TO NE FLOW AND POST FRONTAL CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER
CHANCES FOR LATE WEEK AND THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. WILL KEEP
SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCES FOR FRIDAY AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY
WITH BREEZY NE WINDS AND ONSHORE MOVING ATLC SHOWERS. HIGHS WILL
DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S TO 70S FOR LATE WEEK BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...MULTI-LAYER CLOUD COVER CONTINUES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA. CURRENTLY ADVERTISING MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEVERAL
WEATHER FEATURES WILL KEEP RAIN SHOWER CHANCES HIGH TODAY...SO BRIEF
PERIODS OF IFR VIS/CIG EXPECTED AS COVERAGE INCREASES. NORTH WINDS
WILL TRANSITION TO NORTHEAST ACROSS INLAND TERMINALS AND KDAB.
GENERALLY ENE/NE FLOW EXPECTED ACROSS ELSEWHERE FROM KTIX SOUTH.


&&

.MARINE...TODAY/TONIGHT...INVERTED TROUGH AND TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS. BUILDING SEAS TO 6 - 9
FEET...HIGHEST OFFSHORE. SCA FOR WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE. MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE SEA HEIGHTS PEAKING OUT EARLY SUNDAY
WITH UP TO 10 FEET NORTHERN OFFSHORE LEGS.

TOOK A BLEND OF GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS FOR SUNDAY WHICH ALLOWS FOR
MODERATE SE FLOW AND A LINGERING NE SWELL WITH 5-7 FT SEAS NEAR
SHORE AND UP TO 8 FT OFFSHORE. A WEAK FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH ON MONDAY SWITCHING WINDS TO THE N-NE BY AFTERNOON AND THEN
QUICKLY VEERING INTO MID WEEK. SHOULD SEE SEAS DIMINISH TO 3-5 FT BY
MONDAY. ANOTHER INCREASE IN WINDS/SEAS TO SCEC LEVELS IS EXPECTED
TUE-WED WITH DEVELOPING BREEZY SE/S FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  65  62  74  58 /  70  40  30  10
MCO  70  63  81  62 /  60  50  40  20
MLB  73  68  80  63 /  60  40  40  10
VRB  75  69  81  63 /  60  40  30  10
LEE  68  60  79  60 /  60  50  30  20
SFB  69  63  79  61 /  70  50  40  10
ORL  69  63  80  62 /  60  50  40  20
FPR  75  70  81  63 /  50  40  30  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST SUNDAY FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO
     VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO
     JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST SUNDAY FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO
     VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO
     JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

&&

$$