Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 210739
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
339 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
...HOT TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND...

TODAY/TONIGHT...MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT WEST INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION TODAY. WITH LESS
SUPPRESSION ALOFT AND MODELS INDICATING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...SHOULD SEE MORE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER COVERAGE WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL. WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL ALLOW EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP NEAR TO JUST AFTER NOON
AND MOVE INLAND WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS FORMING ALONG AND
INLAND OF THIS BOUNDARY. SLIGHTLY GREATER STORM COVERAGE AND
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS WILL OCCUR INLAND OF THE TREASURE COAST
BY MID AFTERNOON AND ALSO WEST OF ORLANDO LATE IN THE DAY WHERE
BOUNDARY COLLISIONS ARE FAVORED.

WITH LOWER THAN NORMAL STORM COVERAGE CONTINUING...ANOTHER HOT DAY
IS IN STORE ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO MOS
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS...WHICH HAS DONE FAIRLY WELL OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW 90S ALONG THE
COAST...REACHING UP TO 94-97 DEGREES WEST OF I-95. HOWEVER A FEW
SPOTS THAT SEE ANY EARLIER STORM DEVELOPMENT AND INCREASED DEBRIS
CLOUD COVER MAY NOT QUITE REACH AS HIGH AS FORECAST. HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL NEAR 105 OVER MANY AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THIS IS
STILL NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR ANY HEAT ADVISORIES WHICH ARE ISSUED FOR
HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 108 OR HIGHER.

LINGERING STORM OR TWO POSSIBLE OVER LAKE COUNTY AFTER SUNSET.
OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY
CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE MID-UPPER 70S MOST LOCATIONS.

THU-SAT...UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WITH BELOW NORMAL RAIN
CHANCES CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
INITIALLY WEST OF THE AREA BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE MS VALLEY.
TAIL END OF A SHORTWAVE AXIS MOVES INTO THE STATE FRI AND INTO SAT.
WL KEEP POPS CHCS ON THE LOWER SIDE WITH COVERAGE FAVORING THE
INTERIOR AND FAR WEST AS STEERING FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTH-
NORTHEAST. ONSHORE FLOW APPEARS TOO LIGHT FOR NIGHT TIME COASTAL
SHOWERS AS WELL. TEMPS WL REMAIN QUITE WARM WITH MID 90S EACH
AFTERNOON EXCEPT FOR THE BEACHES AND MID TO UPPER 70S OVERNIGHT.

NEXT WEEK...LTST GUID CONTINUES BIAS TOWARD AN EAST TRACK OF
CURRENT INVEST AREA 96 WHICH WOULD MOVE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM WELL
EAST OF THE AREA. AN INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW IS INDICATED TUE
THROUGH MIDWEEK...ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE COAST AND INLAND WITH
MARINE BASED SH/TS. WILL CONTINUE SCENARIO OF SCT RAIN CHCS CLOSER
IN LINE TO CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR. WHILE A THERE WILL BE A FEW MORE STORMS THAN
YESTERDAY...COVERAGE WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. ISOLATED CONVECTION
WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND INLAND OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE INLAND OF TREASURE COAST AND
LATER IN THE DAY WEST OF KMCO. TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDS WILL OCCUR WITH
ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY...BUT FOR NOW RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LOW ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE VCTS OR TEMPO GROUPS IN THE TAFS.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY/TONIGHT...FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED. RELATIVELY
LIGHT S/SW FLOW THIS MORNING WILL BECOME E/SE NEAR THE COAST AND
INCREASE SLIGHTLY AS SEA BREEZE FORMS AND MOVES INLAND. WINDS WILL
THEN RETURN OUT OF THE S/SW INTO TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN
BELOW 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 1-2 FEET.

FRI-MON...FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH S-SW WINDS 10KTS IN THE NIGHTS AND
MORNINGS...TURNING ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOONS WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF A SEA BREEZE. SEAS AROUND 2 FT WITH UP TO 3 FEET
OFFSHORE AT TIMES. SEA BREEZES WILL LEAD TO SOME WIND CHOP NEAR
THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOONS.

RAIN CHANCES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL INTO SAT WITH STEERING FLOW
FAVORING THE INTERIOR PENINSULA RATHER THAN OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FORECAST HIGHS STILL JUST OUT OF REACH OF RECORDS BY 2-4 DEGREES
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AND INTO SATURDAY.

RECORD HIGHS:

                   8/21          8/22          8/23
DAYTONA BEACH    96 (1941)     97 (1980)     96 (1988)
ORLANDO          99 (1925)    100 (1980)     99 (1915)
MELBOURNE        96 (2012)     96 (1993)     95 (1960)
VERO BEACH       97 (1993)     95 (1993)     96 (1980)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  94  76  95  76 /  20  10  20  10
MCO  97  76  96  76 /  20  10  30  10
MLB  93  76  92  75 /  20  10  20  10
VRB  92  75  92  74 /  20  10  20  10
LEE  97  77  96  79 /  30  20  30  10
SFB  97  78  96  78 /  20  10  30  10
ORL  97  78  96  79 /  20  10  30  10
FPR  92  74  91  73 /  20  10  20  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WEITLICH
LONG TERM....PENDERGRAST




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