Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 261345
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
945 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Morning RAOBs continue to show a dry/stable airmass over the FL
Peninsula with PWAT values in the 0.75"-1.00" range...a sharp
subsidence inversion in the H85-H70 lyr. RAP40 analysis shows the
bulk of the dry mid lvl air along and S of the I-4 corridor with H85-
H50 avg dewpoint depressions btwn 25C-30C. Even so...a pocket of
enhanced moisture trapped blo the inversion managed to coalesce into
isold shras N of the Bahamas this mrng as is pushed into the
relatively warm waters of the Gulf Stream...most likely triggered by
a lcl H85-H30 vort axis draped over Lake-O...extending from
Sebastian Inlet to Naples.

These shras have been marching steadily toward the Treasure Coast
since daybreak...but have shown signs of weakening as they gradually
move W of the Gulf Stream core. Will extend the chc for -shras along
the Treasure Coast thru the aftn as sat pics show the moisture
pocket extends well beyond the 60NM line into the Atlc. However...it
should be noted that any precip will be brief with limited impact.

Position of the ridge axis to our north will maintain a persistent
easterly breeze. Onshore flow will keep highs lower along the coast
(mid 80s) versus inland (upper 80s). Expecting another pleasant
afternoon as sfc dewpoints lower with late mrng mixing.

&&

.AVIATION...Thru 27/12Z.
Sfc Winds: Thru 26/17Z...E/NE 5-9KTS incrsg to 12-15KTS with ocnl
G18-22KTS. Btwn 27/00Z-27/03Z...bcmg NE 3-5KTS.

Vsbys/WX/Cigs: S of KVRB slgt chc MVFR shras.

&&

.MARINE...
Ridge axis parked north of the area will maintain a gentle to
moderate E/NE breeze...ocnl sfc gusts arnd 20KTS near the coast this
aftn. Seas generally 3-4FT, occasionally up to 5 feet in the Gulf
Stream. Isold shras mvg onshore S of Sebastian Inlet.


&&

.MLB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM UPDATE.....Bragaw
AVIATION/IMPACT WX....Wimmer


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