Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 010137
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
937 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT-OVERNIGHT...DRIER AIR ALOFT AS EVIDENT FROM EARLIER TAMPA
SOUNDING KEPT STORMS FROM POPPING NORTHWARD TODAY BUT STRONG BOUNDARY
COLLISIONS SOUTHWARD HAVE PROMOTED GROWTH OF STRONG STORMS WITH
STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS ALONG THE TREASURE COAST AND OKEECHOBEE
COUNTY. A FEW SHOWERS THIS EVENING ALONG THE I-4 CORRIDOR AS WELL.
EXPECTING ACTIVITY TO DECREASE/DISSIPATE LATE THIS EVENING.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH SKIES MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. WILL UPDATE ZONES LATER TO CLEAN UP FIRST
PERIOD WORDING.

WED...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
WILL KEEP ATL RIDGE AXIS SOUTH OF THE AREA WED. MODELS SHOW LOW
LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW WEAKENS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE TO FORM ALONG MUCH OF THE COAST. HOWEVER IT WILL STILL LIKELY
BE DELAYED WITH LITTLE INLAND MOVEMENT EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY FROM
THE CAPE NORTHWARD. MOS POPS VARY FOR TOMORROW WITH GFS/MAV GUIDANCE
THE DRIER OUTLIER FROM THE NAM AND ECMWF MOS. LOOKS LIKE THERE
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR ISO-SCT
SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE IN THE AFT SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE LATTER
GUIDANCE WITH POPS RANGING FROM 30-40 PERCENT. BEST CHANCE FOR
BOUNDARY COLLISIONS AND ANY STRONGER STORMS WILL BE OVER THE
INTERIOR AND TOWARD THE BREVARD/VOLUSIA COASTS. HIGHS FORECAST IN
THE LOW 90S ACROSS THE COAST TO MID 90S OVER THE INTERIOR.

&&

.AVIATION...STRONG BOUNDARY COLLISIONS THIS EVENING SOUTH OF KMCO
THRU THE TREASURE COAST. FEW SHRA`S ALONG THE I-4 CORRIDOR THRU THIS
EVENING BEFORE THEY DISSIPATE. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH THINNING
CLOUDS.

WED...ISO/SCT AFT SHRA/TSRA FORECAST FOR TOMORROW AFT. SEA BREEZE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO FORM ALONG MUCH OF THE COAST DUE TO A WEAKER
OFFSHORE FLOW. GREATEST STORM COVERAGE EXPECTED WITH ANY BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND TOWARD THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD
COASTS LATER IN THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...OVERNIGHT-WED...RIDGE AXIS STILL SOUTH OF THE WATERS BUT
CREEPS BACK NORTHWARD TOWARD LAKE OKEECHOBEE DURING THE DAY ON WED.
S/SW WINDS INTO WED...BACKING TO ESE ALONG THE SPACE/TREASURE COASTS
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH ECSB FORMATION. WIND SPEEDS MAY APPROACH 15
KTS OVERNIGHT OVER THE OPEN ATLC FALLING BACK TO AROUND 5-10 KTS
EARLY ON WED.

ALSO THIS EVENING...FEW STRONG OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS FORT PIERCE
SOUTHWARD THRU LATE EVENING WITH GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SEDLOCK/CRISTALDI


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