Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 010200
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1000 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

DISCUSSION...
LIGHT N/NW H100-H70 FLOW OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WILL PUSH A WEAK
FRONTAL TROF FROM THE FL BIG BEND TO JUST S OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR
OVERNIGHT. N/NE WINDS ALREADY IMPINGING ON THE COAST N OF CAPE
CANAVERAL AS EVIDENCED BY SHRA MOTION OFF THE COAST OVER THE PAST
FEW HRS.

LATEST RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A BAND OF H85-H50 VORTICITY PUSHING
ONSHORE OVER TAMPA BAY WHICH WILL PROVIDE A SOURCE OF LIFT FOR
LINGERING SHRA ACTIVITY OVER THE SRN CWA THRU MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...
UPR LVLS ARE CONVERGENT AS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA IS UNDER THE
DESCENDING RIGHT FRONT QUAD OF A WEAK H30-H20 JET STREAK...WHILE THE
LIGHT NRLY FLOW PUSHES WEAK LAPSE RATES ACRS THE CWA: H85-H70
READINGS ARE ALREADY BLO 5.0C/KM WHILE H70-H50 READINGS BLO 5.5C/KM
WERE PUSHING INTO THE SPACE COAST BY LATE EVNG. EVNG RAOBS WERE
DEPICTING THIS DRY AIR AS WELL WITH A NOTEWORTHY SLUG OF DRY AIR ABV
H60 NOTED ON BOTH KJAX/KTAE SOUNDINGS.

WILL SHOULD ONTO SLGT CHC POPS OVER ARND THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION
THRU MIDNIGHT...ALSO SLGT CHC ALONG THE COAST FROM THE CAPE NWD AS
THE DVLPG N/NE FLOW WILL PUSH ISOLD SHRAS ONSHORE. IN ADDITION...THE
FLOOD WATCH HAS EXPIRED...HEADLINES WILL BE REMOVED.

&&

.AVIATION...
THRU 01/08Z...PREVAILING VFR ALL SITES...SLGT CHC OF BRIEF MVFR
SHRAS BTWN KOMN-KTIX...W/SE SFC WNDS ARND 5KTS BCMG LGT/VRBL. BTWN
01/08Z-01/14Z...AREAS IFR/LCL LIFR CIGS/MVFR VSBYS N OF KISM-KTIX IN
STRATUS/BR. BTWN 01/14Z-01/18Z...W/NW SFC WNDS 5-10KTS BCMG E/NE...
CHC MVFR SHRAS/SLGT CHC IFR TSRAS ALL SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT N/NE BREEZE DVLPG OVERNIGHT FROM SEBASTIAN INLET NWD AS A
WEAK FRONTAL TROF PUSHES INTO THE LCL ATLC. S OF THE INLET...A LIGHT
TO GENTLE W/SW BREEZE WILL PREVAIL. SEAS AOB 2FT NEARSHORE...2-3FT
OFFSHORE....DOMINANT PDS ARND 8SEC. ISOLD SHRAS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RECENT HEAVY RAIN OVER THE SHINGLE CREEK BASIN HAS CAUSED THE CREEK
AT CAMPBELL TO RISE TO ACTION STAGE THIS EVENING. GAUGE INFORMATION
FROM A MONITORING STATION UPSTREAM SUGGESTS THE CREEK WILL CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY RISE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE LEVELING OFF
WITHIN ACTION STAGE.

ST JOHNS RIVER AT ASTOR REMAINS SLIGHTLY ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AT ASTOR
AND IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WITHIN MINOR FLOOD STAGE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. RIVER LEVELS ALSO RISING NEAR DELAND AND LAKE HARNEY
AND THESE SITES MAY APPROACH OR REACH ACTION STAGE LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.

AM...NONE.

&&

$$

FORECAST/AVIATION...BRAGAW
RADAR/IMPACT WX.....PENDERGRAST
HYDROLOGY...........ULRICH





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