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000
FXUS62 KMLB 302019
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
319 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON MARKED BY A BAND OF LOW-MID CLOUDS THAT
CONTINUES TO ERODE WITH TIME. NORTH FLORIDA/S GEORGIA HAVE BEEN
SEEING SOME GUSTY N-NW WINDS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND AREAS FROM
TITUSVILLE TO KISSIMMEE NORTHWARDS WILL SEE SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS
AS THE FRONT CLEARS THEM BY MID AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE FRONT GUSTY
WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE FRONT CURRENTLY TIMED TO CLEAR
LAKE OKEECHOBEE BY LATE EVENING. RADAR IS PICKING UP THE OCCASIONAL
SPRINKLE ALONG THE ACTUAL BOUNDARY BUT ITS QUESTIONABLE IF THESE ARE
EVEN REACHING THE GROUND GIVEN THE DRY PROFILE AND NARROW MOISTURE
BAND SO WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
BARRING A LIGHT SHOWER OVER THE GULF STREAM. SKIES CLEARING THIS
EVENING BEHIND FRONT THOUGH FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE TURNS
NORTHEAST WHICH MAY ADVECT SOME MARINE STRATOCU INTO THE COAST BY
DAYBREAK.

LOWS OVER THE INTERIOR AND VOLUSIA COAST WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
MID 40S WITH A FEW UPPER 30S POSSIBLE AROUND LAKE GEORGE. BREVARD
AND TREASURE COAST LOW TEMPS TRICKY AS FLOW VEERS WITH TIME AND
MODELS SHOW LESS DECOUPLING...MEANING SURFACE WINDS WILL LIKELY BE
NORTH-NORTHEAST AS WELL. SLIGHT DEVIATION IN WIND DIRECTION BETWEEN
NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST WILL MEAN THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MID
40S AND MID 50S...AS WE SAW A FEW NIGHTS AGO WHERE TEMPERATURES
FLUCTUATED 5-10 DEGREES AN HOUR WITH WIND DIRECTION. FOR NOW WILL
KEEP UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S ALONG MOST OF THIS COAST WITH MARTIN
COUNTY COAST IN THE MID 50S WHERE FLOW IS MORE LIKELY TO KEEP
ONSHORE COMPONENT.

SATURDAY....SURFACE HIGH BUILDS SOUTHEAST FROM ON/TN VALLEYS DURING
THE DAY VEERING FLOW ONSHORE AND LIMITING ANY POST FRONTAL COOL AIR
ADVECTION. PARTLY SUNNY SKIES OVERALL...THOUGH AS ONSHORE FLOW TAPS
INTO REMNANT FRONTAL MOISTURE COASTAL AREAS WILL LIKELY BE CLOUDIER
WITH MARINE STRATOCU MOVING INTO THE COAST. HIGHS A FEW DEGREES OFF
NORMAL IN THE UPPER 60S/AROUND 70...THOUGH ONSHORE FLOW WILL HOLD
VOLUSIA COAST IN THE MID 60S.

SUN...HIGH PRESSURE RELOCATING OFFSHORE THE MID ATLC CST WL
KEEP LCL WINDS VEERING TO SE COMPONENT WITH CONTINUATION OF A
WARMING TREND. AFTERNOON WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WL HELP PUSH TEMPS
WELL INTO THE 70S ALONG WITH A DRY FORECAST AND PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.

MON-TUE...(FROM PREV DISC) MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS
THROUGH EASTERN U.S. MON PUSHING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION
IN THE AFTN/EVE MON. MAIN ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL
REMAIN WELL NORTH...BUT DECENT MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY AND AREA IN ASCENDING REGION OF 250MB JET JUST NORTH OF
FL SHOULD AID IN ISO/SCT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AS FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. RAIN CHANCES RANGE FROM 30 TO 40 PERCENT OVER CENTRAL/NRN
AREAS AND AROUND 20 PERCENT ACROSS OKEECHOBEE COUNTY AND THE
TREASURE COAST.

DRIER/COOLER AIR THAT BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL AGAIN BE SHORT
LIVED AS WINDS QUICKLY VEER TO ONSHORE TUE. HIGHS IN THE 70S MON
WILL COOL INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S FROM ORLANDO NORTH TO LOW 70S SOUTH
ON TUE.

WED-THU...RUN TO RUN TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH LOW DEPICTION
OVER THE GULF ON THE GFS AND ECMWF DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THE
30/12Z ECMWF KEEPS SLOWED PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM WITH A
EASTERN GULF LOW PLACEMENT 12Z THU MORNING. A FASTER MOVEMENT IS
SHOWN WELL NORTHEAST OF THE STATE THU MORNING BY THE 30/12Z GFS.
REGARDLESS OF SOLUTION INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD
ARE INDICATED BY BOTH MODELS AS S/SE FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW
INCREASE MOISTURE OVER THE REGION. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS (30-50%)
IN THE FORECAST FOR THESE PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...
BAND OF LOW-MID CLOUDS BRINGING 1-2HRS CIGS FL020-040 AS FRONT
MOVES THROUGH REGION. AREAS FROM KISM-KTIX AND KMLB WILL SEE
PREVAILING CIGS IN THIS RANGE FROM 19Z-22Z...BUT TREASURE COAST
AND OKEECHOBEE TAFS SITES MAY BE MORE TEMPO 20Z-24Z AS BAND
CONTINUES TO ERODE. PERIOD OF GUSTY NW WINDS BEHIND FRONT THROUGH
02Z. E-NE FLOW ON SAT WILL ADVECT MARINE STRATOCU FL035-040 INTO
COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT-SATURDAY...BUOYS AND CMAN STATIONS SHOW GUSTY NW WINDS
DEVELOPING BEHIND FRONT TO OUR NORTH...SO CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS
ON TRACK FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT AS FRONT CLEARS THE WATERS BY LATE EVENING. WINDS BECOMING
NORTH-NORTHWEST BEHIND FRONT THROUGH REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON PICKING
UP TO AROUND 20KTS OFFSHORE AND 15-20KTS NEARSHORE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. FLOW VEERS NORTHEAST 15KTS BY DAYBREAK AND
EAST-NORTHEAST 10-15KTS SAT AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF
CAROLINA COAST.

SEAS INITIALLY 3-5FT RAMPING UP TO 5-7FT IN THE GULF STREAM BY LATE
EVENING WITH WIND SURGE COUNTERING THE GULF STREAM. SLOW SUBSIDENCE
TO 3-6FT INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SUN...WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY AS HIGH
CENTER MOVES OFF SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST WITH SEAS 3-5 FT.

MON-TUE...WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE S/SW UP TO 15-20 KTS INTO MON
MORNING AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION IN THE
AFT WITH SEAS UP TO 6 FT OFFSHORE. WINDS BECOME N/NW AND REMAIN
ELEVATED BEHIND THE BOUNDARY INTO MON NIGHT. WINDS THEN QUICKLY VEER
TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AROUND 10-15 KTS ON TUE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHORT LIVED POST FRONTAL DRYING THIS AFTERNOON WL BE REPLACED BY
DEVELOPMENT OF ONSHORE WINDS SATURDAY AND CONTINUING INTO NEXT
WEEK. INCRSG MOISTURE LATE SUNDAY INTO MON WL LEAD TO EVENTUAL
RAIN CHCS WITH NEXT APCHG FRONT DURING MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  44  65  48  75 /   0   0  10  10
MCO  48  70  49  77 /   0   0   0  10
MLB  49  67  54  73 /   0   0  10  10
VRB  52  69  54  75 /   0   0  10  10
LEE  44  69  49  77 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  45  68  49  76 /   0   0   0  10
ORL  47  68  50  76 /   0   0   0  10
FPR  52  69  54  75 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER
     INLET OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER
     INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOSES
LONG TERM....PENDERGRAST