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000
FXUS62 KMLB 101751
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
151 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL INTO THIS EVENING...

CURRENT-TONIGHT...15Z KXMR SOUNDING CONTINUES TO SHOW A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WITH A PWAT OF 1.90" AND LIFTED INDEX OF -6.1.
TEMPERATURES AT 500 MB HAVE COOLED FROM 10Z TO -8.3C. SCATTERED
ACTIVITY FIRING ALONG THE EAST/WEST COAST SEA BREEZES THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY MOVE INLAND ALONG THESE
BOUNDARIES INTO THIS EVENING. DEEP MOISTURE AND ADDITIONAL BOUNDARY
COLLISIONS WILL PROMOTE FURTHER SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT WITH
INCREASING COVERAGE/INTENSITY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING WEST TOWARDS
THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST WILL ALSO COMPLIMENT CONVECTION.
ERRATIC SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

EXPECT A FEW STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING CONTAINING FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING
STRIKES...STRONG WIND GUSTS...SMALL HAIL AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. AREAS
OF RAIN WILL LIKELY LINGER PAST SUNSET ORLANDO NORTHWARD DIMINISHING
AROUND MIDNIGHT. URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING A POSSIBILITY DUE
TO SLOW MOVING CELLS/RECENT DAY`S HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS NEAR THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL
PRODUCE LIGHT TO CALM WINDS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SHOWER AND
STORM ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE INTO MID/LATE EVENING WITH CLOUD
DEBRIS THINNING OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S.

...PREVIOUS EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION...

FRI-WED...THE H100-H70 ATLC RIDGE HAS AN IMPRESSIVE ANTICYCLONE THAT
SPANS THE ATLC BASIN FROM THE NW GOMEX TO THE IBERIAN PENINSULA.
MID/UPR LVL WINDS ACRS THE SRN CONUS REMAIN QUITE WEAK DUE TO AN UPR
LVL RIDGE EXTENDING ACRS THE NRN GOMEX/WRN ATLC. THE NRN JET STREAM
IS MODERATELY ACTIVE WITH A 90-110KT JET CORE LIFTING OVER NEW NEW
ENGLAND AND THE NEXT UPSTREAM +70KT CORE BACK OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA.
HOWEVER...THESE JET STREAKS ARE POSITIONED SO FAR TO THE N THAT THE
PROSPECT OF ANY SHORT WAVE DISPLACING THE ATLC RIDGE ANY FURTHER
SOUTH THAN THE FL STRAITS IS VIRTUALLY NIL THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

THE SHORT WAVE TROF OVER THE NE CONUS WILL DAMPEN OUT AS THE NEW
ENGLAND JET LIFTS ACRS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
ATLC RIDGE TO DRIFT NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL/NRN PENINSULA WHERE IT
WILL REMAIN THRU THE WEEKEND. THE RESULTING PGRAD WILL BE VERY
SLACK...ENSURING THE GENERAL H85-H50 STEERING FLOW WILL BE AOB
10KTS. ANY MID/UPR LVL DYNAMIC SUPPORT THAT MIGHT PUSH PRECIP
CHANCES TO THE 50PCT MARK WILL BE LIMITED TO LCL IMPULSES THAT ARE
DIFFICULT IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE TO ACCURATELY FCST BEYOND THE 24HR MARK.

WHILE WEAK FLOW WILL ALLOW BOTH SEA BREEZES TO MAKE GOOD INLAND
PENETRATION...THE RESULTING SLOW STORM MOTION WILL LIMIT OVERALL
COVERAGE. POPS DIMINISHING TO AOB 40PCT ON FRI...THEN AOB 30PCT THRU
THE WEEKEND AS THE DVLPG ONSHORE FLOW TAPS A POCKET OF RELATIVELY
DRY AIR OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE/SRN BAHAMAS.

GFS/ECMWF MODELS INDICATE A +130KT H25 JET STREAK S OF THE ALEUTIAN
ISLANDS COMBINING WITH A 60-70KT STEAK E OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TO
FEED THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE OVER WRN CANADA. AS THE DEEPENING
TROF WORKS ITS WAY ACRS THE MIDWEST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE ATLC
RIDGE AXIS WILL BE SUPPRESSED BACK INTO THE CENTRAL/SRN PENINSULA.
THIS WILL IN TURN ALLOW A WEAK W/SWRLY STEERING FLOW TO DVLP ACRS
CENTRAL FL...SHIFTING THE FOCUS FOR DIURNAL PRECIP BACK TO THE EAST
BY MIDWEEK.

MAX/MIN TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY ABV AVG THRU THE PD...BUT NOT BY MORE
THAN 2-3F. AFTN READINGS IN THE U80S/L90S...MRNG READINGS IN THE
L/M70S.

&&

.AVIATION...DEEP MOISTURE AND SURFACE HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR SCT
TSRA ALONG THE INLAND MOVING WEST/EAST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES
THIS AFTERNOON. FREQUENT LIGHTNING/TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS/GUSTY WINDS
THE MAIN THREATS FROM SLOW MOVING/ERRATIC STORMS. MAY ADD ADDITIONAL
TEMPO GROUPS TO COMPLIMENT VCTS IN TAFS AS NECESSARY.  PATCHY GROUND
FOG MAY REDUCE VSBYS SOUTH OF MCO (VRB/FPR/SUA) AGAIN
OVERNIGHT/EARLY FRI MORNING THROUGH 13Z DUE TO VERY MOIST LOW
LEVELS AND CALM WIND. PERSISTENT FCST CONTINUES WITH DAILY SEA
BREEZE REGIME AND SCT AFTN STORMS AGAIN FOR FRI.

&&

.MARINE...AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS TO REMAIN SITUATED
OVER THE CENTRAL PENINSULA. WINDS ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT INLAND. E/ESE WIND SPEEDS ALONG THE
COAST 10-12 KTS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC AOB 10
KTS. SPEEDS TONIGHT MAY INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS AWAY FROM THE COAST.
THE MAIN MARINE WEATHER CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE STORMS THAT
PRODUCE LIGHTNING STRIKES AND GUSTY WINDS. THESE SHOULD OCCUR MAINLY
DURING THE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC. DAYTIME
HEATING STORMS OVER THE MAINLAND WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
INTRACOASTAL AND NEAR SHORE ATLANTIC AS STEERING FLOW ALOFT REMAINS
VERY WEAK AND UNABLE TO PUSH STORMS TO FAR OFF OF THE COAST.

...EXTENDED MARINE FORECAST DISCUSSION...

FRI-MON...FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
ATLC RIDGE AXIS MEANDERS BTWN THE PANHANDLE AND THE CENTRAL
PENINSULA. LIGHT TO GENTLE SERLY BREEZE WILL PREVAIL WITH NEARSHORE
SEAS AOB 2FT...OFF SHORE SEAS 2-3FT. WEAK PGRAD WILL ALLOW FORMATION
OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE BY NOON EACH DAY WHILE SIMULTANEOUSLY
MAINTAINING A WEAK STEERING FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL LIMIT OFFSHORE
MOVING TSTMS TO AOB 20PCT WITH SHRA/TSTM ACTIVITY CONFINED MAINLY TO
THE GULF STREAM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  90  74  87 /  30  40  30  30
MCO  75  92  73  92 /  30  50  30  30
MLB  74  89  76  89 /  20  30  20  30
VRB  73  88  75  89 /  20  30  20  30
LEE  76  91  74  91 /  40  50  40  40
SFB  75  92  74  92 /  30  50  30  30
ORL  75  92  74  93 /  40  50  40  40
FPR  73  88  75  88 /  20  30  20  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...SEDLOCK
IMPACT WEATHER/RADAR....VOLKMER