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000
FXUS62 KMLB 110835
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
335 AM EST WED DEC 11 2013

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT...
SFC HI PRES EXTENDING FROM THE MID ATLC TO THE RED RIVER VALLEY IS
PROVIDING THE SOLE IMPULSE TO A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING THRU THE
CENTRAL PENINSULA THIS MORNING...EARLY MRNG SFC OBS INDICATE THE
FRONTAL BNDRY IN THE VCNTY OF FORT PIERCE-PUNTA GORDA...CONFIRMED BY
A BAND OF HIGH H100-H85 RH JUST S OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR. SFC/LOW LVL
WINDS ALREADY SHIFTING TO THE NE BEHIND THE FRONT IN RESPONSE TO THE
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. SFC DEWPOINTS DROP FROM THE
M/U60S AHEAD OF THE FRONT...TO THE L/M50S BEHIND IT. LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF RAIN OUTSIDE OF A PENCIL THIN BAND OF CONVECTION OFF THE
TREASURE COAST.

TODAY-TONIGHT...
AN ARCTIC HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDING OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS WILL DRAW
THE POST FRONTAL RIDGE INTO ITS GRASP AND MERGE WITH IT OVER THE
MIDWEST. AS THIS HAPPENS...THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL AS IT LOSES ITS
ONLY SOURCE OF FORWARD MOMENTUM. HOWEVER...DESPITE THE NEARLY
SATURATED H100-H85 LYR...THE AIRMASS OVERHEAD IS ALMOST COMPLETELY
LACKING IN ANY MID/UPR LVL DYNAMIC OR THERMODYNAMIC SUPPORT. RUC
ANALYSIS SHOWS NO SIG MID LVL VORTICITY/UPR LVL DIVERGENCE TO SPEAK
OF...WHILE LAPSE RATES THRU THE H85-H50 LYR ARE LARGELY AOB 5.5C/KM.

LCL PROFILERS INDICATE STRONG NRLY WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK ACRS
CENTRAL/NORTH FL...BUT THESE WILL DIMINISH BY MIDDAY AS THE TWO
RIDGES UNDERGO THEIR MERGER. WRLY WINDS ABV H85 HAVE ALREADY
DIMINISHED BLO 15KTS ACRS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA AND WILL NOT BE ABLE
TO PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF MID LVL EVACUATION. ANY LOW TOPPED
SHRAS THAT MANAGE TO DVLP IN THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL NOT HAVE MUCH TO
SUSTAIN THEM ONCE THEY MOVE ONSHORE. WILL GO WITH SLGT CHC POPS
AREAWIDE...BUT IMPACT FROM ANY PRECIP WILL BE QUITE LOW.

ONSHORE FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT AS THE NEWLY MERGED POST
FRONTAL RIDGE DROPS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH AND TIGHTENS THE LCL PGRAD.
WHILE THIS SHOULD KEEP THE LOW LVL AIRMASS SUFFICIENTLY MIXED TO
PREVENT WIDESPREAD FOG FROM FORMING...THERE WILL BE A PD IN THE
PREDAWN HRS WHERE SFC/BNDRY LYR WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH FOR
PATCHY FOG TO FORM.

WEAK COOL AIR ADVECTION ASSOCD WITH THE NE LOW LVL WINDS WILL KNOCK
A FEW DEGS OFF MAX TEMPS TODAY...STILL 4-8F ABV AVG WITH AFTN
READINGS IN THE M/U70S...EXCEPT L80S ARND THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE
REGION. LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND NE FLOW WILL COMBINE TO KEEP MIN
TEMPS IN THE L/M60S...10-12F ABV AVG.

THURSDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING TOWARD THE TN VALLEY AND SE
STATES WILL INCREASE THE NNE LOW LVL FLOW AND PUSH A BAND OF LOW
CLOUDS THROUGH THE AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME CLEARING ACROSS
NRN SECTIONS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED WITH WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AT THE BEACHES. ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL MOVE SSW AND ONSHORE...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER SHOWER
CHANCES ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS UP TO 30 PERCENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COOLER AND RANGE FROM AROUND 70 AT DAYTONA BEACH TO THE MID
70S FOR ORLANDO AND UPPER 70S ACROSS THE SRN COUNTIES.

FRIDAY...THE SFC HIGH CENTER NEAR THE NC COAST WILL PUSH OFFSHORE
WITH WINDS BECOMING EASTERLY. CONSIDERABLE LOW TO MID LVL CLOUDINESS
SHOULD PUSH ONSHORE FROM THE ATLANTIC WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING
ONSHORE FROM AROUND VERO BEACH SOUTH TO MARTIN COUNTY. HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE 70S.

SATURDAY...A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AND MID LVL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHING THE SOUTHEAST WILL ALLOW A SFC LOW PRESSURE AREA TO MOVE
FROM MS ACROSS AL TWD N GA INTO SAT EVENING. LOW LVL FLOW WILL VEER
TO SOUTHERLY ON SAT WITH HIGH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE LWR TO MID 80S.
A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN THE LATE AFTERNOON BUT WILL KEEP POPS
BELOW 15 PCT FOR NOW. SAT NIGHT... THE APPROACH OF THE MID LVL
SHORTWAVE AND SFC COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN FL BIG BEND
LATE WILL ALLOW FOR S CHC/CHC OF SHOWERS IN THE PREFRONTAL
AIRMASS.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO E CENTRAL
FL SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE 00Z ECMWF SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN
THE GFS. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT AND THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS IN THE 30-40 PCT RANGE. HIGHS SUNDAY EXPECTED TO AGAIN
BE WARM AHEAD OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 80-85 DEGS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S
NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH.

MON-WED...SFC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SE STATES WILL BE REINFORCED
INTO MID WEEK KEEPING N-NNE LOW LVL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. 00Z ECM
WAS SLOWER TO MOVE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SO HAVE NUDGED GFS POPS UP
A BIT AND GONE 30 PCT ALL AREAS MONDAY. BY TUE INTO WED...THE FRONT
SHOULD PUSH SOUTH OF THE STATE WITH A DRIER CONTINENTAL AIRMASS
TAKING HOLD WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WHICH
SHOULD RUN ABOVE NORMAL...IN THE MID 70S NORTH TO UPPER 70S SRN
SECTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...
THRU 11/14Z...SFC COLD FRONT WILL STALL VCNTY OF KSUA-KOBE. S OF
KVRB-KOBE...SFC WND LGT/VRBL PATCHY MVFR VSBYS/CIGS IN BR...LCL LIFR
VSBYS/CIGS IN FG. N OF KVRB-KOBE...N/NE SFC WND ARND 10KTS CIGS BTWN
FL015-025 TEMPO BLO FL010 THRU 11/12Z.

BTWN 11/14Z-11/24Z...NE SFC WND 8-12KTS. N OF KMLB-KISM...CIGS BTWN
FL020-030. S OF KMLB-KISM...CIGS BTWN FL040-060.

AFT 12/00Z...N SFC WND ARND 4-8KTS. N OF KVRB-KOBE CIGS BTWN
FL010-015 TEMPO BLO FL005...PATCHY MVFR VSBYS IN BR. S OF KVRB-KOBE
CIGS BTWN FL020-030.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE CENTRAL PENINSULA
TODAY...ALLOWING A MODERATE TO FRESH N/NE BREEZE TO DIMINISH 15KTS
OR LESS...CONTG INTO THE OVERNIGHT PD. WINDS WILL REFRESHEN OUT OF
THE N IN THE PREDAWN HRS AS THE STRONG POST FRONTAL HI PRES RIDGE
BUILDS ACRS THE OH/TN RIVER VALLEYS. THE NERLY COMPONENT WILL PUSH A
2-3FT SWELL INTO THE LCL ATLC...MAINTAINING 3-4FT SEAS NEARSHORE AND
4-5FT OFFSHORE...UP TO 6FT IN THE GULF STREAM N OF SEBASTIAN INLET.
SCRIPPS BUOYS MEASURING SEAS LESS THAN 3FT...BUT C-MAN STATIONS ARE
INDICATING WINDS BTWN 15-20KTS N OF SEBASTIAN INLET. WILL KEEP THE
CAUTIONARY STATEMENT FOR THE CENTRAL/NRN COASTAL ZONES.

STRONGER NORTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED THU AS HIGH BUILDS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST. 7 MB PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM JAX-MIA WILL SUPPORT WINDS UP
TO 20-25 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS. SEAS WILL BUILD
TO 8-10 FT IN THE GULF STREAM. WIND WILL VEER TO EAST ON FRIDAY WITH
WINDS FROM 15 KNOTS NRN WATERS TO 20 KNOTS SRN WATERS. SEAS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED OFFSHORE AND ACROSS THE SRN WATERS. WIND WILL VEER
TO SOUTHERLY SATURDAY NEAR 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS 3-4 NEAR SHORE AND 5-6
FT WELL OFFSHORE. THE FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE WATERS SUNDAY WITH
OFFSHORE FLOW INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST SEAS WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS UP TO AROUND 5 FT.

&&

.CLIMATE...A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 85 DEGREES WAS SET AT
MELBOURNE ON TUESDAY. THIS BROKE THE OLD RECORD OF 84 PREVIOUSLY SET
IN 2012...1994... 1967 AND 1947.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  62  71  52 /  20  20  20  10
MCO  80  62  74  53 /  20  20  20  10
MLB  79  65  76  62 /  20  20  20  10
VRB  80  63  78  64 /  20  20  30  20
LEE  78  60  71  50 /  20  20  10  10
SFB  79  62  72  53 /  20  20  20  10
ORL  79  62  73  54 /  20  20  20  10
FPR  81  64  78  64 /  20  20  30  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BRAGAW
LONG TERM....VOLKMER