Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 200050

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
850 PM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017


...First Significant Cold Front of the Fall Season Will Push Through
Central Florida by the middle of next week...

Tonight...Breezy onshore flow was still pushing isolated to
scattered Atlantic showers into the coast.  Little change is
indicated except for possibly some drying in the far north late.
Nighttime stability has already been causing the showers to
dissipate as they push inland, so don`t expect much of a shower
chance for the interior counties. The onshore flow will keep min
temps well above normal, upper 60s to lower 70s inland and mid 70s
along the coast with some upper 70s along the barrier islands. Don`t
see anything significant to change in the current forecast.


Primarily VFR overnight tonight with NE winds 10-15 kts continuing
along the coast.  Can`t rule out a brief isolated shower for coastal
sites and have kept in VCSH through 06Z from MLB-DAB and through the
TAF period for VRB-SUA.  Interior terminals should remain dry.
Breezy NE/ENE winds will continue on Friday with isolated-scattered
showers moving onshore and higher chances again indicated from VRB-


Tonight-Friday...High pressure centered to the north will maintain a
5 to 6 mb gradient along the east coast of Florida.  The gradient
looks a little more packed across the north half, but overall there
doesn`t look to be much change from the northeast-east winds which
have been 15-20 knots. A lengthening fetch of onshore flow will
support seas 5-7 feet in the nearshore zones and up to 8-9 feet in
the offshore zones.  No change in the Small Craft Advisory
conditions is expected into the weekend.


.HYDROLOGY...The middle and upper Saint Johns River basins remain
in flood. Additional rainfall is in the forecast through the
weekend, but amounts look generally light.  Hence, the nearly steady
or very slight fall we`ve had in river levels the last few weeks
will continue.


AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Saturday for Flagler Beach
     to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Saturday for Volusia-Brevard
     County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Sunday for Flagler Beach to
     Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Sebastian Inlet to
     Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-
     60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60



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