Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 140942
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
342 AM CST Sun Jan 14 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 342 AM CST Sun Jan 14 2018

Have just a couple of sites with temperatures at or below zero
over west Kentucky as of 09Z. The IR satellite imagery is picking
out the snowpack real well, but there are some phantom mid-level
clouds coming and going mainly near the Wabash Valley early this
morning, and the more widespread high clouds continue to spread
southeast through southeast Missouri. Both will help hold
temperatures up a bit as we head toward sunrise. Still could see
some more sub-zero temperatures, especially across the Evansville
Tri State where they will not be impacted much by the more
substantial mid and high clouds through sunrise. Winds are light
or calm, so wind chills will not be a factor this morning.

Light snows over western Missouri will spread south southeast
through the morning, and may bring some flurries to southeast
Missouri by midday. This is the result of warm advection, and the
flurry potential will spread northeast through southern Illinois
this afternoon. The 00Z GFS is the wettest model and emphasizes
this evening along I-64. We will have a slight chance of light
snow moving eastward along I-64 in southern Illinois after 21Z and
then through the Tri State this evening. We should then be dry
overnight.

Plenty of clouds will keep highs in the 20s throughout the region
today, and the clouds and south winds will allow temperatures
tonight to drop only into the lower 20s. Quite balmy compared to
the last few nights.

Confidence in the forecast for Monday is actually regressing, as
the 00Z and 06Z NAM are a little more hit or miss with their QPF,
but have upwards of a quarter inch in some locations. It has
nothing east of the Mississippi River. The 00Z GFS and ECMWF
continue to be more robust and solid with their QPF. The consensus
now is for an earlier arrival time, with the main east/west
oriented band reaching west Kentucky by 18Z and lingering there
through the afternoon and possibly into Monday night in the far
southeast. The earlier arrival should limit warming over west
Kentucky, so this should be a pure snow event.

The core of the QPF and Snow Accumulations have been pushed
southward just a bit, and are a bit lower than previous forecasts.
1-2" still seems reasonable east of the Mississippi River. Given
that the models have not completely locked onto this event, we
will hold off on considering a Winter Weather Advisory at this
time.

The ECMWF and to a lesser extent, the NAM keep light QPF over our
TN border areas into early Tuesday, as the main larger-scale
upper-level trough rotates southward toward the Quad State. It
should push any remaining snow to our east by Tuesday afternoon.

Northwest winds behind the Arctic cold front will spread very cold
air back into the region Monday night through Tuesday night. Lows
will be in the single digits both nights, with many locations
near zero Tuesday night. Wind chills will drop as low as 15 below
in the north early Tuesday and will be almost as low early
Wednesday. Much of the north and northeast may not see wind chills
climb above zero through the day Tuesday. A Wind Chill Advisory
continues to look like a strong possibility for at least the
northern half of the area from Monday night through Tuesday night.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 342 AM CST Sun Jan 14 2018

Forecast confidence is better than average through much of the long
term given the overall good agreement among the forecast models and
a lack of substantial precipitation expected. Confidence is somewhat
lower Thursday night for reasons we`ll explain below.

A moderating trend will take place through much of the period as the
center of cold Arctic high pressure just west of the Missouri Ozarks
Wednesday morning slides into the Tennessee Valley on Thursday and
the southeastern U.S. by Friday. In the upper levels, a deep trough
extending from the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley early Wednesday
will pivot east and be off the Mid Atlantic coast by early Thursday.
Consequently, the upper flow pattern over the nations mid section
will become somewhat less amplified through Friday. As a result,
high temperatures should warm from the lower 20s on Wednesday to
near freezing on Thursday and near 40 by Friday.

One potential wrinkle in the forecast is a rather compact upper low
that the models have been struggling with over the past couple of
days. The general consensus has been to track this low and any
precipitation south of the immediate region Thursday night. However,
both the 00Z GFS and ECMWF track this feature right across the
Middle Mississippi Valley Thursday night into early Friday. While
the ECMWF is dry, the GFS does suggest the potential for a brief
period of light snow Thursday night. At this time, we collaborated
with our neighbors to keep the forecast dry for now in line with the
majority of available model guidance. Nonetheless, it is something
we will be watching in the coming days.

The warming trend should magnify into the weekend as southwesterly
upper level flow develops in response to an approaching storm system
over the Plains. While clouds may be on the increase by Saturday,
any precipitation should hold off until better moisture return kicks
in Saturday night and Sunday. Albeit preliminary, this precipitation
event appears to be mainly rain with temperatures forecast to top
the 50 degree mark both weekend days.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 521 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2018

VFR conditions tonight through Sunday. Occasional mid clouds are
forecast. Light north winds will gradually become south,
southeast tonight through Sunday.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...RJP



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