Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 112119
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
319 PM CST Sat Nov 11 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 318 PM CST Sat Nov 11 2017

A mid level shortwave will dive out of the northern Plains
tonight, increasing cloudiness tonight beyond the generally thin
cirrus, thick at times, in place over us now. The system is
forecast to sharpen as it approaches, inducing a surface trof
which will move through the PAH forecast area during the day Sun.
Despite the strengthening system, the rainfall associated with
this system will be pre-frontal and on the light side, due to
limited return moisture.

The light rain will arrive from the west overnight and continue
into the daylight hours Sun, and should be over Sun evening. By
then, the cold front`s wind shift should be well underway. Some
clouds may be a bit slow to clear in the east early Mon due to
the departing trof axis. High surface pressure centered in the
upper Midwest will dominate our weather picture through Mon night.

After a modest warmup during the rest of the weekend, Monday`s
high temps should be quite similar to today`s, well below average
for this time of year, followed by lows near freezing Mon night.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 315 PM CST Sat Nov 11 2017

For the period Tuesday through Wednesday, the models are in decent
agreement. Dry weather is forecast Tuesday into early Tuesday night.
A frontal boundary will move toward the area Wednesday, and pass
through late Wednesday through Wednesday evening. Aloft, s/wv mid
level energy will pass mainly to our north. We expect a chance of
showers after midnight Tuesday, continuing through Wednesday, and
then diminish from north to south Wednesday night. Some elevated
instability in the models, so will include a slight thunder chance
on Wednesday. Mainly showers.

Thursday through Saturday, the models continue to struggle with
timing the return warm front Thursday/Thursday night, and then fropa
Friday. Good chance of showers with the return warm front Thursday
afternoon and especially night.

The GFS is a fast outlier pushing the front through earlier in the
day Friday. That`s in contrast to the slower GEFS/UKMET/CMC and
ECMWF solutions. In fact, the 12z ECMWF has slowed even more from
its 00z run. We moved away from the GFS, but not all the way to the
slowest ECMWF. That puts us closer to the UKMET/GEFS/CMC solutions,
suggesting a Friday late day, early evening fropa from west to east.
Plenty of instability to include thunder. Some signals exist that
suggest strong convection with and ahead of the front. However,
confidence is still low at this time. High likely to low end
categorical blend PoPs are not appropriate at this time given the
potential 6-12 hour swing the models could take on timing. We went
closer to MOS and WPC numbers, high chance category. Blends also do
not advect high enough dew point air up ahead of the front in the
warm sector. We went closer to raw model output, and that will keep
Thursday night lows a bit warmer. Convective chances will end from
west to east Friday night, with dry weather returning for
Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 318 PM CST Sat Nov 11 2017

As a disturbance approaches from the west today, cirrus clouds,
thick at times, will continue. Winds will remain light and generally
out of the southeast overnight. After midnight, cigs are expected to
drop, but stay VFR, until around 12Z, after which they should drop
further to around 2000 feet over much of the area. However, it is
possible that a stratus deck could materialize sooner than 12Z.
In the north, including KEVV/KOWB, cigs may drop below 2000 by
daybreak. Showers are a fairly good bet after daybreak, earlier
for KCGI/KPAH and most likely after mid-morning for KEVV/KOWB.
Meanwhile, winds should begin their shift toward the south ahead
of a weak cold front.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DB
LONG TERM...CN
AVIATION...DB



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