Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 070430

1130 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015

Issued at 1130 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015

Revised aviation discussion for 06Z TAFs.

UPDATE... Issued at 856 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015

The larger mass of clouds over Missouri and Illinois has been
slowly eroding as it tries to move into our area, and that trend
is likely to continue. Updated to reduce cloud cover through the
night. Also made minor adjustments to temperatures through the
night. Overall, the forecast is in pretty good shape.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 257 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015

Mid level ridging will continue over the PAH forecast area
throughout most of the short term period while the nrn stream
remains active, with shrtwv energy moving through every couple of
days or so. This means dry and warmer-than-average weather can be
expected for most of the period, with variable cloudiness. Low
level warm advection should enable temps to reach as high as 86
degrees (near the AR border) Thu afternoon, and easily into the
80s elsewhere.

A more significant shrtwv is progged to swing a sfc cold front
through our region early Fri. There are some timing differences in
the 12Z runs of the models, notably the slow GEM (which depicts a
flatter trof) and the rather quick GFS. The general consensus is
that most pcpn may not develop from the nw until after 06z Fri.
Wrn KY will be the last to see rain showers. Stability indices
indicate lightning is possible, so a slight chance of tstms was
mentioned overnight.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 257 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015

An upper level short wave and a surface reflection of a cold front
will move through Friday. There still remains about 6 hours
difference in the timing of the front. The GFS wants to push the
front through the fastest with all precip out of the forecast area
by 00z Saturday. The NAM is almost as fast. The ECMWF, Canadian and
SREF are the slowest with precip lingering after 00z Saturday. There
remains enough instability to warrant a mention of isolated thunder
with this system. High pressure then builds in and keeps us dry into
the first part of next week.

Much cooler and drier air settles over the region for the weekend.
High pressure moves off to the east by late Sunday and southerly
winds and a quick warm up return for next week. Highs will go from
around 70 on Saturday back into the lower 80s by Tuesday.


Issued at 1130 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015

High pressure will maintain VFR conditions at all forecast terminals
through the period. The only exception may be some patchy late night
fog at KCGI. Scattered cumulus is again possible on Wednesday, with
more coverage expected west of the Mississippi River. Light north
winds will prevail.




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