Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 202013
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
313 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WITHIN THE SHORT TERM LIES WITH LINGERING
CHCS OF LIGHT PRECIP TONIGHT AND THEN CLOUD/TEMP FORECAST FOR
THU.

TONIGHT INTO THU...THE REGION WILL REMAIN SANDWICHED BETWEEN LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE SE U.S. AND VERY CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE OUT OVER
THE PLAINS. BY EVENING...MOST OF THE APPRECIABLE RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SERN SFC LOW SHOULD PULL EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HOWEVER...RH TIME/HT SECTIONS SUGGEST LOADS OF MOISTURE WILL
BE LEFT OVER BELOW H85 LEVELS. LOW CLOUDS MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE
OUT SOME DRIZZLE FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT THINKING IS THAT
NORTHERLY WINDS 5-10 MPH WILL PRECLUDE MUCH OF A FOG THREAT.

AS WE HEAD INTO THU...BIG QUESTION TURNS TO WHETHER OR NOT WE WILL
SEE ANY CLEARING. TIME/HEIGHT SECTIONS SUGGEST A LAYER OF STRATUS
MAY PERSIST ALL DAY NOW...AND LOOKING OUT WEST ON SATELLITE TODAY
YIELDS STRATUS CLOUDS ALL THE WAY BACK THROUGH THE PLAINS AND UP
TO THE DAKOTAS. THUS...DECIDED TO BEEF UP CLOUD COVER FOR MOST OF
THE DAYTIME HOURS. MAX TEMP FORECAST BUST POTENTIAL IS HIGH FOR
THU...DEPENDING ON WHETHER WE SEE THE SUN. EVEN A COUPLE HOURS
LATER IN THE DAY WOULD MAKE A 5-10 DEGREE DIFFERENCE. GIVEN PAST
DISCUSSION...WILL LEAN ON COOL SIDE OF TEMP ENVELOPE (EURO MOS).
MAY NOT EVEN REACH 60 UP ALONG THE I 64 CORRIDOR.

FORECAST BECOMES A BIT NICER THEREAFTER...AS HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY
TAKES OVER THU NIGHT/FRI. WILL STILL BE UNSEASONABLY COOL THO WITH
LOWS IN THE 40S THU NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

THE PAH FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF A DRAMATICALLY
DEEPENING LARGE SCALE SWRN CONUS MID/UPPER TROF BY SAT. AS HAS BEEN
THE CASE...THE MED RANGE MODELS/ENSEMBLES ARE IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT...HOWEVER THE INDIVIDUAL DETAILS (TIMING/INTENSITY) OF
SENSIBLE WEATHER EVENTS BECOME HARDER AND HARDER TO NAIL DOWN WITH
TIME.

MEASURABLE PCPN OF ANY SIGNIFICANCE IS NOT EXPECTED TO OCCUR UNTIL
POSSIBLY SAT NIGHT FOR THE WRN TWO-THIRDS OF THE REGION...IN THE
FORM OF SHOWERS...AS THE ATMOSPHERE APPEARS RATHER STABLE AT THAT
POINT. THE ONSET OF PCPN WILL BE THE RESULT OF A MID LEVEL SHRTWV
IMPULSE EJECTING OUT OF THE SWRN CONUS TROF AND ACROSS THE SRN
PLAINS...TAPPING INTO DEEP GULF MOISTURE IN OUR REGION. A SFC WARM
FRONT IS ALSO SLATED TO MOVE NWD THROUGH THE REGION...CAUSING TEMPS
TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND MIDNIGHT AND DEWPOINTS TO BEGIN TO INCREASE.

SUNDAY...IN THE WARM SECTOR...WE MAY DRY-SLOT FOR A WHILE...PERHAPS
ALLOWING A GLIMPSE OF SUNSHINE IN THE PENNYRILE REGION OF KY.
STILL...THERE SHOULD BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS AROUND THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH NO MAJOR TRIGGERS FOR FORCING...WE THINK THAT THE
THREAT OF TSTMS WILL BE LESS AT NIGHT WITH PARTIAL STABILIZATION OF
THE ATMOSPHERE...THUS THERE WAS SOME DOWNPLAYING OF THE CHANCES.

THE MOISTURE CONVEYOR BELT CONTINUES OVER THE PAH FORECAST AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SWRN CONUS TROF ITSELF BEGINS TO EJECT EWD
AND DAMP OUT. WIDESCALE LIFT OF MOISTURE SHOULD PROVIDE PLENTY OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY IN SERN MO ON MON...WITH SCATTERED
TSTMS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER BY THEN...THE TIMING OF PCPN BEGINS TO
BECOME MURKIER IN THE MODEL DATA.

BEST GUESS IS THAT PCPN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO WANE A BIT BY TUE
NIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROF IS REPLACED BY QUASIZONAL MID LEVEL
FLOW. WITH SRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUING...TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS WILL
REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE (BUT NOT HOT).

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

LOW IFR CIGS WILL LIKELY TO SET IN LATE TONDAY AND THIS
EVENING...THEN PERSIST MUCH OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. MAY RAISE INTO
MVFR CAT 14-16Z THU.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MEFFERT
LONG TERM... DB
AVIATION...GM


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