Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 021157

National Weather Service Topeka KS
557 AM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 309 AM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

Water vapor imagery clearly shows the main storm system making
its way into south central Kansas producing rain with embedded
thunder ahead of the surface low. As this surface low pushes
north into north central and northeast Kansas, rain has moved
across the area with areas of snow expected to develop in north
central Kansas.

Low level warm air advection have trended temperatures warmer than
previously forecast holding off any snow for the time being. Models
do seem to be in good agreement with colder air moving into our most
northwest counties near 10-11Z, along with heavier precipitation
amounts.  With this delay in precipitation and colder air, snow
amounts have been on the downward trend. Still believe that
Republic, Cloud, and Washington have the potential to see snow
amounts of 3 inches or more, and combined with winds up to 30kts,
believe the Winter Storm Warning for these counties is still
warranted.  For counties south of this, snowfall amounts will be
minimal given the warmer temperatures just above and at the surface.

As for rain, expect precipitation totals to range between a quarter
of an inch up to an inch over northeastern Kansas.  Even with only
minimal instability present, storms pushing through the area have
continued to produce isolated thunder and lightning.  The dry slot
with this system has been pushing north faster than expected,
therefore, rain should begin to clear out from south to north
beginning near 7AM.

Warned areas will have the best chance to see additional snowfall
accumulation Tuesday as the surface low pressure slows as it nears
northeast Kansas.  In the afternoon, a vort max associated with the
exiting system will bring another small chance for rain and snow
across the area.  Rain amounts would be light with any afternoon
precipitation and snow (mainly in north central Kansas in the
afternoon) would not accumulate due to the warmer surface temps.  As
temps fall Tuesday night, any light rain would change over to very
light snow.  With winds picking up again behind the exiting low, any
snowfall could be picked up and blown causing hazardous travel

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 309 AM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

Surface high builds in on Wednesday in the wake of the upper system.
Skies will gradually clear through the day with highs reaching into
the 30s for most areas. Dry northwest flow continues through
Thursday then a upper ridge moves in on Friday as an upper level
trough moves into the Rockies. A return of west to southwesterly
winds will bring warmer temperatures as heights rise allowing for
temperatures to warm into the mid and upper 40s. The upper low in
the Rockies moves into the Southern Plains while a northern stream
trough remains well to the north, with limited moisture across the
area forecast remains dry. A stronger trough moves across the
Northern and Central Plains on Sunday which brings a cold front
through the area Sunday evening. Temperatures ahead of the front on
Sunday warm to around 50 with 30s on Monday. Moisture remains
limited with the system and energy dropping south on the back side
of the upper trough will bring an increase in clouds and perhaps
some light precipitation on Monday.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 556 AM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

Dry slot working its way toward the terminals will see an
improvement from IFR/MVFR to VFR by 15Z while at the same time
winds will veer to the south. VFR cigs are then expected until
21Z-23Z when a change to MVFR is expected along with RASN then a
transition to snow after 01Z ending by 07Z. MVFR cigs and
northwest winds around 17kts with gusts to around 23kts.


.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for KSZ010-

Winter Storm Warning until midnight CST tonight for KSZ008-009-



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