Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 162047
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
347 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 342 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

A cold front extended from a surface low in far northeast Nebraska
southeast across north central and into southwest Kansas at 19Z. The
upper level trough and shortwave was moving across central and
eastern Nebraska at late afternoon will move east into Iowa this
evening. As this feature moves east the surface low will move
northeast into southern Minnesota later this evening. A strong
pressure gradient continues ahead of the boundary across much of
northeast and east central Kansas. The strong winds will begin to
decrease later this afternoon and early evening and will keep the
wind advisory going through 6 PM. With the passage of the cold front
winds will shift to the northwest behind it but continue to be gusty
for a couple of hours. The cold front is forecast to stall across
northeast Oklahoma into central Missouri by 12Z Thursday. Cold and
dry advection will be in the wake of the front tonight with
temperatures falling back into the middle and upper 30s to the lower
40s.

On Thursday another shortwave is forecast to move across the
Southern and Central Plains. Northern areas will remain dry with
drier air in place. The better QG forcing and frontogenesis is
across southern Kansas, Oklahoma and southern Missouri. Best chances
of rain will be south of I-35 while areas further north near I-70
will have less of a chance of rain. Have maintained 20 percent or
less from just east of Salina to Topeka and Oskaloosa and around 50
percent along and south of I-35. Rainfall amounts will be light.
With cloud cover and a cool north wind temperatures are only warming
to the lower 50s in east central Kansas to the upper 50s in north
central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 342 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

The front to the south will wash out Thursday night and with light
winds across the area and temperatures in the middle 30s...can`t
totally rule out some patchy frost in the east...although mixing
should slowly increase late in the night. Mostly sunny skies with
increasing south winds and slow warm air advection on Friday will
help to push highs into the upper 60s to near 70 most areas.
Good mixing will persist through Friday night ahead of the next
system in the high plains. Have therefore increases low temperatures
Friday night into the upper 40s east and lower 50s north central.

Any precipitation chances on Saturday should hold off across the
county warning area until afternoon...and even then remain limited
to the western half of the cwa as moisture/instability and lift
will to slow to spread eastward across the cwa. Models are in good
agreement that moisture and instability for showers and
thunderstorms will gradually increase/spread west to east Saturday
night into Sunday as the upper trough in the western portions of the
U.S. lifts out of the central and southern plains. Will carry the
highest precipitation chances Saturday night into Sunday...then
gradually decrease west to east across the cwa Sunday night into
Monday as the upper trough shifts off to the east. Will then keep
the fcst dry Monday night through Tuesday night before introducing
low pops for more convection by Wednesday in portions of the cwa.

With the expected clouds and precipitation...highs in the 60s look
on target for Sunday but with returning sunshine Monday...highs
should rise back into the lower 70s. Upstream ridging and resulting
warm air advection on the heels of increasing south winds should be
sufficient to push highs into the middle and upper 70s for Tuesday
and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1248 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

Main concern for the TAFS are the winds. South to southwest winds
around 25 to 30 kts with gusts to 40 kts will continue through 21Z
then begin to decrease as a frontal trough approaches. High
resolution short term models suggest that the winds will shift to
the northwest at MHK around 2330Z and at TOP and FOE between 01Z
and 02Z. winds could gusts as high as 20 kts behind the front then
fall off quickly. The winds will decrease to less than 10 kts from
the north around 06Z. VFR cigs are expected and precipitation
will remain south of the terminals on Thursday.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 342 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

Winds continue to be strong and gusty near 40 mph from the southwest
at late afternoon. A front will shift the winds to the northwest and
will also have some gusts near 25 mph for a brief period. RH values
range from 20 to 30 percent. Extreme fire danger will continue
across northeast and east central Kansas through the rest of the
afternoon. RH should recover this evening as temperatures cool. Will
leave the Red Flag Warning in place through 6 PM.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING until 6 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ009>012-
021>024-026-035>040-054>056-058-059.

WIND ADVISORY until 6 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ010>012-022>024-
026-036>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...53
FIRE WEATHER...53






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