Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 191742
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1242 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 319 AM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016

Overnight convection continues over western and central Nebraska at
this hour, with increasing clouds and an outflow boundary making its
way towards north central Kansas.  While a few models generated
small area of precip along the 850mb front, seeing little in the way
of evidence of this in reality, with only a few mid level clouds
forming, then dissipating, over the past hour or so.  Will leave
precip chances out at this time.  Clouds also expected to dissipate
later this morning, with temperatures rising into the middle/upper
90s area wide.  Dewpoints do drop a few degrees in afternoon mixing,
but not enough to bring much impact on heat indicies.  Another day
of 100-105 heat indicies expected, and will keep the advisory going
through the morning. With day 4 of these numbers, and additional
days expected, will keep the changeover from advisory to an
excessive heat warning this afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 319 AM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016

Models in good agreement into the end of the week. Upper high
remains over the south central states through these periods with
general subsidence resulting. In addition, low-mid level winds
increase from the southwest Wednesday into Thursday resulting in
even warmer conditions and decreasing moisture in the column.
Wednesday afternoon soundings showing little capping but also not
seeing any discernible forcing for convection. Hard to rule out
something isolated forming but any coverage should be below worthy
of a mention. A more substantial cap should build in for Thursday
and Friday with 850mb temps rather similar Thursday through Saturday
in the 25-30C range for highs around 100F likely. Dewpoint values
also well agreed upon to bring peak heat index values to 104-110
through at least Friday. Confidence in the extreme heat wanes by
Saturday as the upper high breaks down enough to allow a shortwave
moving over it to push a weak boundary into the area. Have kept some
small nocturnal pops going in the northwest Friday night as
convection could push in from the southwestward extent of the
boundary then, with chances across the area Saturday night into
Monday as the front lingers. Chances continue to remain small with
the weak forcing, but highs should finally cool back to the low to
mid 90s for Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016

VFR conditions are expected through the period.  It looks like the
better chances to reach LLWS criteria will be met in central Kansas
so have kept them out of the TAFs for now.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Friday for KSZ008>012-
020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

Heat Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for KSZ008>012-
020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Heller


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