Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 191725

National Weather Service Topeka KS
1225 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 322 AM CDT THU MAY 19 2016

Early this morning surface high pressure was centered just southwest
of the Great Lakes region, resulting in light southerly winds across
the forecast area.  With the exception of a few mid-level clouds,
skies were mostly clear, resulting in decent radiational cooling and
early morning temperatures dropping into the mid/upper 40s by
sunrise.  Despite low dewpoint depressions early this morning, do
not anticipate fog development as there isn`t much surface moisture.
However, cannot entirely rule out the potential for some isolated
areas of very shallow fog, primarily near bodies of water.

A mid-level trough was located over New Mexico this morning, and
models show this trough gradually lifting northeastward into Kansas
by this afternoon and into this evening. While there will be
increased moisture advection into the area with this approaching
wave, model soundings show only some scattered mid-level clouds by
mid to late morning with the better moisture advection and increased
cloud cover occurring during the afternoon hours. As a result,
expect temperatures to quickly rise this morning, reaching into the
60s by late morning. The temperature rises will slow down during the
afternoon with the increased cloud cover, however still expect
afternoon high temperatures to reach into the upper 60s to around 70
degrees. Expect increased lift to extend northward into the forecast
area by mid to late afternoon as the mid-level trough advances into
the area.  This increased moisture and lift should support the
development of some scattered showers, possibly as early as by mid-
afternoon, with better chances during the late evening and overnight
hours as the trough tracks overhead. Models show the potential for
some weak and very shallow instability, but don`t feel it`s enough
to support thunderstorm development. The best potential for these
light rain showers will be focused across east central Kansas, with
there being some model uncertainty with just how far west these
isolated to scattered showers may develop across the forecast area.
QPF amounts should be low at around one-tenth of an inch or less.
With the overcast skies in place, expect temperatures to be a few
degrees warmer tonight with lows in the lower 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT THU MAY 19 2016

Upper trough till move off to the east and into Missouri by Friday
afternoon and should bring an end to the showers by late morning in
northeast and east central Kansas. An upper level ridge builds into
the Plains as an upper level low and trough gradually builds
eastward into the western U.S. Friday night and Saturday. A few
elevated showers or storms may develop within the low level jet
early Saturday across parts of western and central Kansas and may
just clip some of the southwest counties early Saturday.
Temperatures will also be on the rise as the ridge builds in and
heights rise, should see highs in the mid 70s after morning lows in
the 50s. Elevated showers or thunderstorms will be possible across
western Kansas and could clip parts of north central Kansas late
Saturday night and early Sunday. Later Sunday night storms firing
off the dryline in western Kansas as waves eject northeast out into
the Plains may maintain themselves and move into north central
Kansas and northeast Kansas. A pacific front along with the dryline
will push east and southeast into north central and southwest Kansas
by 12Z Monday morning.  The frontal boundary will be a focus for
additional storms in the afternoon as another wave in the southwest
flow works its way across the Plains. Shear and instability are
favorable for strong to severe storms across parts of the area. The
boundary looks to stall or retreat westward as a stronger wave dives
southward in the base of the upper trough on Tuesday. Expect ongoing
morning convection across northeast Kansas on Tuesday with possible
redevelopment in the afternoon along the front upper level trough
will move out of the Rockies and into the Plains on Thursday.
Retreating surface high will initiate southerly flow into the
central and eastern Kansas. Lift increases in the afternoon hours as
the upper trough moves into central Kansas in the afternoon, that
combined with increasing moisture will set the stage for some light
showers to develop in the afternoon. The upper trough will move over
eastern Kansas Thursday night with the trough axis moving off into
Missouri by the afternoon hours. With weak lapse rates expect
showers primarily. An upper level ridge builds in the area Saturday
with dry weather expected along with warming temperatures. An upper
level trough will be in place across the western U.S. Sunday. A wave
is forecast to eject out of the base of the trough and clip western
Kansas. Highs pressure ridge extending from the Great Lakes
southwest into eastern Kansas on Sunday will focus the best moisture
return into the High Plains of western Kansas. Storms moving off of
the dryline may maintain and move into central Kansas late in the
day. Veering low level jet may maintain a cluster of storms which
may affect north central and northeast Kansas. Moisture and
instability axis will be focused across central and eastern Kansas
ahead of a dryline in western Kansas. A frontal boundary will move
southeast into western parts of central Kansas by Tuesday morning as
an upper level trough tracks northeast out of the Rockies and across
the Northern Plains Monday night. With southwest flow across the
Plains and ejecting waves out of the western trough expect on and
off again chances for showers and thunderstorms through Tuesday.
Shear, instability and moisture will be favorable ahead of the
dryline and frontal boundary for strong to severe storms across
eastern Kansas Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures will gradually warm
each day with highs in the 70s for the weekend and in the lower 80s
for Monday and Tuesday.ontal boundary in central Kansas. Storm
chances continue into Wednesday with the upper trough moving east
across the Rockies and into the High Plains by Thursday morning.
Wave will eject northeast across Kansas and with the frontal boundary
near the western counties expect thunderstorms to develop in the
afternoon and move northeast across the area. Temperatures are
expected to warm into the 80s for the Monday through Wednesday time
period and overnight lows primarily in the 60s.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2016

Monitoring progression of showers moving northeast from south
central Kansas. The arrival and coverage of these showers as they
enter the terminals in the 20 to 23Z time frame will determine how
low ceilings fall overnight. Best chances for seeing precip hit
the ground are through early evening then uncertainty increases as
the showers dissipate eastward. All guidance is continuing to
indicate low end MVFR to perhaps IFR conditions in the 10Z to 14Z
time period. This is a pretty good bet if we see any kind of
showers. With the upper system tracking overhead, expect MVFR
ceilings to persist through 18Z.


.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


SHORT TERM...Hennecke
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