Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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000
FXUS63 KTOP 310442
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1142 PM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 348 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

The short term period of the forecast will be noted by a significant
change in the weather pattern. Water vapor imagery showed one
embedded shortwave exiting eastward into Missouri, which helped to
push an area of surface low pressure and associated weak cold front
through the area. A second embedded shortwave was located just west
of the Great Lakes, and this wave is forecast to dive southward
toward the Ohio River valley tonight through Friday.

A tight pressure gradient developed over the forecast area today as
the surface low shifted east of the area. Despite breezy northwesterly
winds gusting upwards of 20-30mph, abundant sunshine and limited caa
helped to boost afternoon temperatures into the middle 60s to low
70s. Surface analysis showed a secondary cold front associated with
this surface low draped across southern Nebraska this afternoon, and
this front is progged to track southward over the forecast area late
this afternoon through this evening. Models show the tight pressure
gradient remaining in place over the region tonight through Friday
morning, so northerly winds will continue to gust upwards of
15-25mph through the overnight hours. Once the secondary cold front
passes to the south, these breezy northerly winds will support
decent caa advection tonight through Friday. While some low clouds
should develop early Friday morning as a result of the second
embedded wave passing just east of the forecast area, low
temperatures are expected to plummet into the 30s tonight. These low
temperatures combined with the breezy winds will lead to Friday
morning wind chill values in the 20s.

These breezy northerly winds will gradually diminish through the
afternoon hours on Friday as surface high pressure advances into the
central U.S. However, they`ll persist enough for caa to continue
through much of the day with high temperatures only warming into the
40s, which is nearly 15F-20F degrees below normal.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 348 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

Friday Night, the center of the surface ridge will build southward
across eastern KS and MO. Clear skies and light winds with a cold
and dry airmass in place will allow low temperatures to drop into
the lower to mid 20s. Expect a widespread hard freeze. Therefore, a
freeze warning will be in effect Friday night and through 800 AM
on Saturday.

Saturday, will be cool with highs struggling into the upper 40s to
lower 50s. Winds will become southerly through the afternoon hours
ad the surface ridge pushes east towards the MS river valley.

Saturday Night through Sunday, an upper level trough across the
western US will move east into the central Rockies. An upstream
upper level ridge will amplify across the eastern plains and MS
river valley. A lee trough will deepen across the high plains
causing the low-level winds to become southerly. High temperatures
will warm into the lower to mid 60s.

Sunday Night, the upper level trough will approach the high plains
by Monday morning. The LLJ will begin to transport moisture northward
across the plains and Midwest. The moisture return Sunday night
may increase the isentropic lift enough for some isolated showers
and elevated thunderstorms to develop.

Monday through Tuesday, The upper level trough will move east across
the central and southern plains. The H5 trough will gradually shear
out as the northern stream H5 jet increases across southern Canada
and the northern plains. There should continue to be sufficient
ascent and deeper moisture advection for widespread showers and
isolated thunderstorms. The showers should end from northwest to
southeast across the CWA late Tuesday afternoon into the evening
hours as a surface cold front will move southeast across the CWA.
Highs on Monday will reach the lower to mid 60s. Tuesday will see
the clouds decrease from west to east across the CWA and highs will
be slightly cooler behind the front.

Tuesday night through Thursday, the southern sections of the H5
trough will become a closed upper low across western TX. The
stronger ascent and moisture return will remain well south of the
CWA. Expect dry conditions with high temperatures warming into the
mid to upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1136 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

Timing of MVFR stratus currently north of the terminals is expected to
arrive by 06Z. Satellite trends and short term guidance is showing
signs of the stratus becoming scattered by 10Z as it continues to
track south with the cold front. Conditions should improve to VFR
shortly after sunrise. Gusty northerly winds persist through the
afternoon at KTOP/KFOE before weakening as high pressure builds
in.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING from 9 PM Friday to 9 AM CDT Saturday FOR KSZ011-
012-021>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...Bowen







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