000
FXUS63 KTOP 011919
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
219 PM CDT SAT OCT 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 159 PM CDT Sat Oct 1 2016

Not much going on in the short term. Weak high pressure ridge
across eastern KS will be slow to move through Sunday. Weak winds
and clear/clearing skies may lead to some valley fog again late
tonight. Ridge moves slowly off to the east on Sunday with winds
in central KS turning to the southeast by afternoon. Lows tonight
should be around 50 degrees, while highs on Sunday are expected to
be in the mid 70s to near 80.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 159 PM CDT Sat Oct 1 2016

Large scale upper low and trough across the western U.S. will move
east with low pressure developing in the lee of the Rockies on
Monday. Increasing pressure gradient between departing high and
lee low will lead to increasing southerly winds, eventually
leading to modified Gulf air returning.

Upper trough and associated forcing makes its way into the eastern
Plains late Monday night and Tuesday with associated shower and
thunderstorm chances.

After Tuesday, there is some discrepancy as to how the medium
range models handle the complexities of the aforementioned upper
trough. 00Z ECMWF and 12Z Canadian moved it through rather quickly
with precip chances across our area ending on Wednesday. Now 12Z
ECMWF is coming more in line with GFS and developing a low over
the southern high plains with the front hung up in the area. This
would lead to chances for showers and storms lingering into
Thursday night. Blend of models utilized to initialize the gridded
forecast were without the 12Z ECMWF input for that period. Have
upped the POPs a little for Thursday given the European trending
toward the slower GFS prediction.

At this time, severe weather potential for Tuesday and Wednesday
look marginal with marginal moisture and instability forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Sat Oct 1 2016

Patchy areas of fog broke up at mid-morning. Currently, high
pressure ridge is over eastern KS with light winds and some
clouds. Stratus in the low VFR range is covering extreme northeast
KS, so far staying away from the TAF sites. Expect weak high
pressure ridge to move little today and tonight, so light winds
with some clearing expected in eastern KS. Fog is again a
possibility later tonight, especially at TOP and FOE, but am not
expecting it to be as dense as last night.


&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GDP
LONG TERM...GDP
AVIATION...GDP