397
FXUS63 KTOP 140740
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
240 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorm chances return Tuesday night through Friday.

- Afternoon heat indices in the upper 90s to around 105
  likely Wednesday and this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Weak flow will be the rule through Tuesday morning throughout the
troposphere with the upper westerlies well north and weak surface
high pressure in place. Will need to monitor visibility trends for
fog potential in mainly eastern areas early today but the greater
potential is well to the east. Little forcing for ascent and modest
moisture keeps today and tonight dry. Moisture increases a bit
Tuesday though anything more than an isolated peak heating storm is
hard to envision.

Showers and storms become more likely with time Tuesday night into
Thursday. A few weak upper waves look to push east across Nebraska
and the northern Plains Tuesday night and again Wednesday night,
with some convection likely forming ahead of them in these areas
both times. This should eventually bring a weak cold front into the
area, more likely Wednesday night. Modest isentropic upglide will
result from these waves though little saturation is present above
the upglide so storm chances outside of a surface boundary moving in
should keep coverage rather isolated. Somewhat better flow aloft
(500 mb winds up to 30 kts) and MUCAPE around 2000 J/kg bring some
concern for severe storms Wednesday night, and perhaps persisting
into Thursday night with the boundary likely nearby. Chances should
diminish Friday into the weekend with the front loosing its identity
but PoPs near climatological values may linger through the weekend
with a hot and humid airmass in place.

Speaking of temperatures, weak WAA should support a warming trend
into Wednesday though confidence in specifics falls off by then
depending on convective trends. Dewpoints also rise as south winds
take hold and could bring heat indices near 105 for some locations.
After slightly cooler conditions near the front Thursday into
Friday, south winds bring similar apparent temps back for the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Main challenge is chance for reduced visibilities in BR around
sunrise. Light winds and clear skies will dominate, but
crossover temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s are a few
degrees below even the coldest guidance low temperatures, so
visibilities below IFR are quite unlikely. Given consistency of
guidance, some similar issues upstream Sunday morning, and
scattered visibility reductions currently to the east, will go
ahead with a MVFR BR for TOP and FOE.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Poage
AVIATION...Poage