Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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000
FXUS63 KTOP 232351
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
551 PM CST Mon Jan 23 2017

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 311 PM CST Mon Jan 23 2017

Upper ridging in place over the Southern and portions of the Central
Plains between upper troughs along the West Coast and southeast
states. Surface ridge was pushing east into Missouri this afternoon,
but low stratus and fog did make its way into northern and eastern
areas this morning. Much of this has dissipated with daytime heating
but some low cloud remains, leaving a wide range of early afternoon
temps. Gusty south winds were in place in central Kansas with temps
into the mid 50s.

Lead wave from the upper trough makes its way into Wyoming tonight
and on east into the Plains Tuesday. Warm air advection/isentropic
lift increase quickly overnight, but a lack of deep moisture should
precip development largely in check. Best moisture looks to be in
the northwest with perhaps a bit of elevated CAPE overnight. Have
kept the forecast dry but could see a brief shower in this area
late. Temps starting off much cooler than expected in northeast
areas and this makes for a challenging temperature forecast as
southeast winds increase under a strong southwesterly low level jet.
Have enough concern for winds to be light and RHs high enough for
some evening fog potential in the northeast.

Forcing for ascent remains rather strong into at least midday
Tuesday but still hard to come by much moisture for precip during
the day. Will maintain small chances mainly north and east given the
forcing but the most activity will remain to the north. Winds should
become gusty as mixing increases in the morning, with steady to
falling temps possible in the afternoon in the west as the surface
low passes. Highs still expected to reach the lower 50s to lower 60s
in the warm sector.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 311 PM CST Mon Jan 23 2017

Tomorrow night there is a slight chance for rain and snow in far
northern and northeast KS as a mid/upper level lifts over the
plains. Behind this system colder air will move southward causing
the highs to stay in the 30s on Wednesday. Northwest flow aloft will
continue through the week, which will keep the temperatures from
moderating quickly. Several shortwaves within the northwest flow
aloft will clip the area to the northeast although most locations
should stay dry for the most part.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 537 PM CST Mon Jan 23 2017

VFR conditions are expected throughout the period. The biggest
question mark through the period is the potential for ground fog
into the early overnight hours. Current thinking is T/Td spreads
should remain large enough along with surface winds 5-10 knots to
inhibit fog development. Winds will veer through the period with
southerly winds sustained at 15-20 knots and gusts approaching 25
knots during the 16Z-23Z timeframe. Winds will decrease near the
end of the period back to near 10 knots.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Baerg


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