Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 050500
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1200 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

Latest surface analysis showed the broad area of high pressure from
the Rockies into the the Central Plains. Pressure gradient will
gradually weaken this evening as the high pressure moves slowly
eastward. Clear skies are expected overnight with light winds. Low
lying sheltered areas and river valleys will be the coolest. Lows
temps tonight will fall into the lower 40s. Thursday, the surface
high will gradually move across eastern Kansas through the day on
Thursday. Winds will be light across the area, but there will be
abundant sunshine. Forecast soundings show mixing to 850 mb and
should yield highs in the mid 70s most area with parts of north
central Kansas see highs in the upper 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

Thursday Night through Saturday...

Weak winds continue Thursday night as surface ridge remains in
place. With clear skies Thursday night into much of Friday, shaded
lows a bit below MOS. South to southwest lower level winds take
hold Friday into much of Saturday for a warming trend. Specifics
of how warm are not clear with increasing high cloud Friday and
the nearing of a cold front into northern area Saturday afternoon
but highs into the lower to mid 80s are likely for much of the
area. Moisture quality looks low through Saturday afternoon, with
the warm air likely leaving some cap aloft even if the front comes
in, so precip chance looks low but enough potential for a slight
chance in the north. Moderate isentropic lift develops ahead of a
northern wave Friday night around 310K, but moisture again is too
weak for any precip concern.

Saturday Night through Wednesday...

WAA will be ongoing at the start of the period ahead of an upper
level trough across the four corners region. The trough will slowly
eject into the central plains this weekend into early next week.
Scattered thunderstorms are possible Saturday night into Sunday as
the first of several shortwaves eject out of the base of the trough.
Isentropic lift will also increase Saturday night within the 300-
305K layer. Severe weather appears low at this time through Sunday
morning. Thunderstorm chances increase Sunday afternoon and evening
as a sharpening dryline sets up across central KS/OK with a warm
front in or very near the CWA. At this point, severe weather is
possible Sunday afternoon and evening as sufficient instability and
deep layer shear should be in place. Another round of severe weather
is possible Monday afternoon evening as the dryline is expected to
set up in the area along with an upper level shortwave ejecting across
the area. Showers and thunderstorm chances will continue through
mid-week as the cutoff upper level low slowly progresses
eastward, allowing multiple shortwaves to continue rotating across
the CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1158 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

VFR conditions with SKC and light north winds will dominate much
of the TAF. Winds remain light but turn out of the south after
00Z.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...Baerg/65
AVIATION...Barjenbruch


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