Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 311701

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
101 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016

Issued at 955 AM EDT Tue May 31 2016

Surface ridge axis remains over the Great Lakes region this
morning...providing Northern Michigan with a mainly clear and cool
start to the day. Leading edge of some residual mid and high
clouds from upstream convection is approaching western sections
of our CWA...otherwise...skies are mainly sunny as temps warm thru
the 50s and into the 60s.

Expect upstream radars across the Upper Mississippi Valley will
light up again this afternoon along and ahead of a slow-moving
cold front and associated deep/closed upper low. Still appears
both the instability axis and the 850 mb theta e ridge ahead of
this front will remain west of our CWA thru today and likely thru
tonight as well as eastward push of this whole system will remain
rather slow. So...what you see is what you get for today...mainly
sunny skies with only sct mid/high cloud drifting overhead.
Northerly winds shift to the east this afternoon...producing a
downslope warming effect for the SW half of our CWA where
afternoon highs will warm into the upper 70s to around 80. The NE
half of our CWA will be a bit cooler with highs in the upper 60s
to mid 70s.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 339 AM EDT Tue May 31 2016

Pattern overview: Low amplitude ridging is building into the far
western Great Lakes this morning, ahead of a fairly strong short
wave digging into the northern plains. Attending surface low
continues to deepen across the northern plains with a sharp cold
front stretching southward into New mexico. Ahead of this system,
moisture/instability axis is getting drawn up through the plains
and into the midwest with one complex of decaying showers/storms
in far SW Wisconsin, and more extensive showers/storms from
Minnesota into Kansas ahead of the cold front. Here at home,
broad high pressure extends from Ontario through the Great Lakes
into the Ohio Valley providing quiet weather for us, although high
cloud cover has been spreading into the region overnight from the
upstream convection.

Pattern forecast: Upstream short wave and attending surface low will
take it`s time swinging through the northern plains states over
the next 24 to 36 hours before finally moving through the Great
Lakes during the Wednesday-Thursday timeframe. No significant
weather for this CWA until then.

Today: Short wave ridge axis will build across the Great Lakes
as upstream wave deepens over the Dakotas. Theta-e/instability
axis will gradually edge it`s way N/E into the far western Great
Lakes through the day although stop short of getting into
Michigan. Ongoing, largely elevated showers/storms migrating
through SW Wisconsin have been steadily weakening overnight and
will fall apart this morning as they reach the edge of the
instability axis. With heating, there will be renewed shower/
thunderstorm development this afternoon across Wisconsin and down
through the Midwest. But again, I would expect precip to fall
apart before getting this far east into the more stable air. We
will see some increase in mid and high cloud cover today,
particularly across the western parts of the CWA. But otherwise a
decent day is anticipated with highs ranging from the upper 60s to
upper 70s. Coolest readings across NE lower MI with a easterly
flow off Lake Huron.

Tonight: Stacked surface and upper low migrate into the upper
midwest pushing the cold front into the far western Great Lakes by
morning. Instability axis and main shower/thunderstorm focus
remains just to our west although there may be a few showers
skirting the far western reaches of the CWA by morning. However,
slower is usually better with these closed systems and as such
will keep all precip out of the forecast through tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 339 AM EDT Tue May 31 2016

(6/1)Wednesday...Models seem much less bullish on the chances of
severe weather for the day as the sfc computed LIs are barely -3c or
-2c, depending on the model, and the 500 mb winds are just around 30
knots. The one thing that this system has going for it is the timing
of the front, with the time of the highest diurnal heating. This
should lend itself, to possibly, better instability. However as
noted earlier, the LIs, and Showalter index, are decidedly weak.
Looking at the model soundings, MUCAPEs are much below 1000 J/kg. So
think that the thunder happens in the afternoon, but without the
shear and stronger instability, probably garden variety thunder.
Models all push the front through the forecast area by 06Z with
showers ending by 09z at the latest.

(6/2)Thursday...With the cold front through the region, the cooler
air puts us around normal as most of the sites are in the mid 70s
for highs at this point in the year. Looks like a partly cloudy day
as well, with the 850 mb moisture increasing to around 70% RH, but
the 700-500 mb layer RH at 30% or less, helping to mix out some of
the clouds. Will need to watch the cloud cover, as it looks like
there could be some sneaky lower clouds moving into the region

Extended (Friday through Monday)...The models are close, but not
quite the same during the extended period. While both models are
dry for the bulk of Friday, by Saturday morning, there are timing
issues starting to creep into the forecast as the ECMWF is faster
and deeper with the upper level low system dropping into the
Midwest. The ECMWF develops the 500 mb wave quickly, and then by
Monday morning has it pushing out of the Upper Great Lakes. The
GFS, on the other hand, deepens the low and allows it to spin over
the region into Tuesday morning. If that is the case, then mostly
cloudy and cool with temperatures, below normal possibly.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 101 PM EDT Tue May 31 2016

Surface ridge axis will remain over Michigan thru tonight...
serving to maintain solid VFR conditions at all Nrn Lwr Michigan
TAF sites. Chances of showers and thunderstorms will begin to
increase Wednesday morning along and ahead of a cold front. At
this point...will handle with VCSH after 14Z for our western TAF
sites (PLN/TVC/MBL). Easterly winds will remain AOB 10 kts thru
the forecast period.


Issued at 339 AM EDT Tue May 31 2016

Winds veer around from northerly early this morning to
southeasterly for tonight, as high pressure skirts by into eastern
Canada. Winds through tonight should remain within the 5 to 15
knot range with a few higher gusts possible. But no marine
headlines are anticipated. A bit stronger SE/S winds anticipated
Wednesday and small craft advisories may be needed for a few of
the longer fetch marine zones.


.APX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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