Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 260447
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1147 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 901 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

TEMPERATURES ARE PLUMMETING EARLY THIS EVENING IN MOST AREAS. SOME
SPOTS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN ARE ALREADY SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW ZERO WITH PARTS OF INTERIOR NORTHERN LOWER RANGING FROM NEAR
ZERO INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT...HAVE LOWERED
MINIMUMS TO DOWNWARDS OF NEAR 20 BELOW ACROSS INLAND EASTERN UPPER
AND 10 BELOW NORTHERN LOWER (THOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME EVEN
COLDER SPOTS).

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

...COLD TONIGHT/SOME CLOUDS AND FLURRIES NEAR LAKE HURON...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: PERSISTENT LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS
CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH AMERICA...WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE WEST AND AN
UPPER LOW STUCK BENEATH OFF THE BAJA PENINSULA.  STRONG SHORT WAVE
TROUGH DIVING INTO THE BASE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE
MID/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...ACTUALLY BIT OF A SPLIT IN THE FLOW
BETWEEN THIS SHORT WAVE (WITHIN A PACIFIC ORIGIN AIR MASS) AND MORE
OF A POLAR-ORIGIN FLOW WHICH THE GREAT LAKES ARE ON THE SOUTHERN
FRINGES OF.  17Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS 1023MB HIGH CENTERED NORTH
OF LAKE SUPERIOR...WHERE TEMPERATURES WERE STILL IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS BELOW ZERO...AND 1002MB CLIPPER LOW NEAR STL WITH A WARM
FRONT EXTENDING EAST ACROSS INDIANA/OHIO TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.
NORTHEAST WINDS EMANATING FROM THIS HIGH KEEPING THINGS COLD AND
MOSTLY DRY ACROSS EASTERN UPPER/NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AT MID
AFTERNOON SAVE FOR SOME FLURRIES COMING IN OFF LAKE HURON.  FARTHER
UPSTREAM TO THE NORTHWEST IS A DECK OF WARM ADVECTION DRIVEN FROM
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA BACK INTO MANITOBA.

SURFACE LOW AND HIGH SANDWICHING THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
AFTERNOON EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST IN TANDEM TONIGHT...LEAVING A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND ACROSS MICHIGAN.  THERE IS A WEAK SHORT
WAVE TROUGH ACROSS NORTHWEST ONTARIO/EASTERN MINNESOTA/WESTERN
WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON THAT WILL TRAVERSE THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: MINIMAL CLOUD COVER ISSUES WITH ANY WARM
ADVECTION PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY
MORNING.  POTENTIAL LOW TEMPERATURES.

TONIGHT: IMPACT OF PASSING SHORT WAVE TROUGH TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE
PRETTY MINIMAL.  PESKY CLOUDS/FLURRIES OFF LAKE HURON ARE PROBABLY
THE BIGGEST PROBLEM OVERNIGHT...AS LIGHT VEERING EASTERLY FLOW
CONTINUES.  LONG FETCH ACROSS THE LAKE AND SHALLOW INSTABILITY (BELOW
900MB) WILL CONTINUE THE POTENTIAL FOR CLOUD FORMATION ACROSS
NORTHEAST LOWER ADJACENT TO LAKE HURON...AND SOME OF THIS MAY LIFT
UP TOWARD DRUMMOND ISLAND/FAR EASTERN UPPER BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA EXPECT MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE
NORTHWEST...WITH THICKER CLOUDS APPROACHING TOWARD MORNING.  LOW
TEMPERATURES LOOK POTENTIALLY PRETTY COLD WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AWAY FROM LAKE HURON...LIGHT WINDS...AND A COLD START WITH MOST
LOCALES ONLY IN THE TEENS.  EXPECT SINGLE DIGITS LOWS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO WITH THE EXCEPTION PROBABLY ALONG THE US-23 CORRIDOR
SOUTH OF APN WHERE CLOUD COVER LIKELY TO BE MOST PREVALENT THROUGH
THE NIGHT AND WHERE TEMPERATURES MAY REMAIN IN TEENS...THOUGH IT`S
TRICKY HERE AS ANY CLEARING WILL ALLOW FOR A QUICK DROP IN
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NOTHING

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: PATTERN REMAINS
STEADFAST...WITH OVERHEAD TROUGHING AND MOSTLY DRY MID LEVEL
NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH MID WEEK. RAPID
INTENSIFICATION OF SIGNIFICANT EAST COAST SNOW STORM TO START THE
WEEK WILL ONLY HELP OUR DRY CAUSE...WITH PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
IT AND QUEBEC HIGH PRESSURE HELPING FILTER IN DRY LOW LEVEL AIR
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD ACT TO SIGNIFICANTLY LESSEN THE
IMPACTS OF NEXT APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM CURRENTLY DIVING ACROSS
CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: TEMPERATURE/CLOUD TRENDS
THROUGHOUT AND ASSESSING VERY LIGHT SNOW POSSIBILITY LATER MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

DETAILS: CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TO START MONDAY AS WEAK WAA
AND BEGINNING STAGES OF TOP-DOWN SATURATION OVERSPREAD THE AREA
AHEAD OF EARLIER MENTIONED CLIPPER SYSTEM. QUESTION BECOMES WILL THE
LOW LEVELS SATURATE ENOUGH TO LET SNOW REACH THE SURFACE AS WE HEAD
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. PERUSAL OF LATEST CROSS SECTION
AND MODEL DERIVED SOUNDING MOISTURE PROGS SUGGESTS THAT MAY INDEED
BE A HARD FEAT TO OVERCOME. DAMPENING MID LEVEL SUPPORT DEFINITELY
WILL NOT HELP THE SNOW PRODUCING CAUSE...WITH ALL SUPPORT FOCUSING
ON THE EAST COAST STORM. UPSHOT TO THE ABOVE...EXPECT BEST CHANCES
OF LIGHT SNOW TO REMAIN REMOVED TO OUR NORTHWEST AND WEST. NO DOUBT
AT LEAST SOME SNOW MENTION WILL BE WARRANTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR
FAR WESTERN AREAS. WHAT DOES FALL (IF ANY) WILL BE OF LITTLE
CONSEQUENCE...WITH JUST A DUSTING OR SO OF ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK SOUTHWEST LATER MONDAY NIGHT...MAINTAINING
CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW
POTENTIAL RETURN LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN UPPER WELL
AHEAD OF NEXT FAST MOVING WAVE. MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM HOLDS OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY (SEE LONG
TERM SECTION BELOW).

TEMPERATURES: NOTHING EXTREME...WITH A SLOW MODERATING TREND
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS IN THE TEENS/LOWER 20S MONDAY
WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

STILL LOOKING FAVORABLE FOR SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. NOT A MAJOR
AMOUNT EXPECTED...BUT A COUPLE INCHES IS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE PRESENCE
OF DECENT MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. LAKE EFFECT CHANCES FOR TYPICAL
AREAS ON FRIDAY AS COLD AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING CLIPPER.
MORE LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE FAMILIAR WEAK CLIPPER AND
TRAILING LAKE EFFECT MAKE ANOTHER APPEARANCE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE
UPPER 20S...BUT WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS THURSDAY NIGHT DOWN TO THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST OFF TO OUR NORTH WILL MOVE SLOWLY OFF
TO THE EAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MEANWHILE...A WEAK CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL TRACK BY TO WEST MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WHILE
WEAKENING. THIS WILL LEAD TO LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WEATHER ACROSS
NORTHERN MICHIGAN. ON-SHORE FLOW OFF OF LAKE HURON MAY RESULT IN
MVFR CIGS FOR A TIME LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AT
ALPENA...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. WINDS
WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD...UNDER 10 KNOTS OUT OF THE
EAST AND SOUTHEAST.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SULLIVAN
NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...SULLIVAN



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