Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 251408

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1008 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

Issued at 957 AM EDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Clear skies with high pressure in control. Surface gradient should
increase later today and bring winds more southerly with fewer
lake breezes than yesterday. Current forecast increases clouds
slowly during the day which looks good. Temps running a few
degrees above expected for time of day so may need to boost high
temps a couple degrees.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 329 AM EDT Sat Jun 25 2016

IMPACTS: Maybe isolated non-severe storms late tonight NW lower.

Synoptic pattern and observations:

Another very comfortable early morning, with clear skies, light
winds and temperatures in the upper 40s to a few places in the lower
60s. Those warmer readings are from a light southerly return flow on
the backside of the departing high pressure, keeping the BL a bit
mixed. Well upstream, sharp upper trough and sfc low pressure were
lifting NE into south central Canada, with deep low level moisture
and very steep lapse rates aloft. Also, a strong LLJ of 50kts into a
warm front aligned from North Dakota down through Iowa, with a
pocket of strong Theta-e convergence, all resulting in strong to
severe showers and storms pushing through nrn North Dakota.

Synoptic pattern evolution:

Beautiful weather continues, but certainly warmer. The high pressure
continues east with a little better pressure gradient bringing a
southerly wind. This will advect in warmer air aloft which will mix
down today into the lower 80s for eastern upper and the middle and
upper 80s for most of nrn lower. Some spots in NW lower away from
downwind Lake Michigan areas, including TVC, will likely see 90F. We
will see some scattered cumulus out there again, but otherwise just a
solid summer day.

The cumulus dissipates this evening, with skies gradually seeing an
increase in high level cirrus later tonight, especially overnight as
the upstream warm front works into the western Great Lakes. The cold
front will be catching up quick, with the whole frontal system
starting to occlude. The axis of deeper moisture does arrive across
NW lower toward daybreak, along with some initial vorticity ejected
from the upper low sliding into western Ontario. As far as forcing,
we will be out of the stronger theta-e advection/convergence that
will be in Ontario. The stronger mid level flow and upper level
divergence pushes across eastern upper, otherwise the forcing is
minimal. Can see best chance for seeing showers and a few storms
there, and in portions of NW lower as warm southerly winds lift over
the colder lakes. Not expecting any severe weather, but we are in a
marginal risk in these areas, for an isolated damaging wind. Total
MUCAPE is under 500 j/kg, so am not thrilled about even the
marginal, and certainly not large hail. Much warmer and muggier
night with lows in the middle and upper 60s most areas.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 329 AM EDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Sunday and Monday...A cold front associated with a storm system
moving over central Canada into Ontario will push across the Great
Lakes Sunday afternoon...while weak cyclonic flow lingers over the
region into Monday as the storm system exits into Quebec. At upper
levels...broad zonal 500mb flow across the Great Lakes Sunday will
break down a 500mb trough develops and digs south across
the state and into the Ohio Valley. 850mb temps in this pattern will
cool from around 17c Sunday to around 6c Monday in advance of
approaching upper trough...forcing well above normal highs in the
mid 80s Sunday to cool back into the 70s on Monday.

The chance for convection across northern Michigan increases sufficient moisture and convergence collide over the
Great Lakes. Surface dew pts will warm into the mid 60s while 850mb
dew pts increase to 16c...helping generate cape values over 1600
j/kg...LI to -8c while the k index nears 40. Some forcing will
converge over the region during the afternoon with 850/700mb and
500/300mb qvectors showing convergence over northern Michigan in
advance of approaching surface and upper lvl troughs. Additional
lift Sunday will be supplied by right entrance region forcing of
100kt 300mb jet. Deep moisture...slow moving surface
features...nearly unidirectional winds from surface to 500mb and
freezing levels over 14k feet...currently thinking thunderstorms
Sunday with localized heavy rain and isolated damaging winds will
be the main threat with storms.

Much cooler and and dryer conditions are expected across northern
Michigan high pressure from the Plains builds across the
Great Lakes.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 611 AM EDT Sat Jun 25 2016

...VFR but showers and maybe a storm late tonight NW lower...

Sfc high pressure has exited east and dry air and light/calm winds
continue along with clear skies. We will get into a little better
pressure gradient bringing us south winds and a pretty warm day.
Gusts should remain held back into the mid teens or so, with some
scattered cumulus again, maybe more so for TVC. Will have some
cirrus moving in through the day as well, but not really
thickening up until overnight tonight. Some lower and mid level
cloud is possible to make it into the NW lower airports as the
front end of a band of showers and maybe a few storms arrive
around daybreak Sunday.

The winds increase substantially tonight, mainly above the sfc.
Confidence in LLWS shear is very high.


Issued at 329 AM EDT Sat Jun 25 2016

...Increasing southerly winds into Sunday...

High pressure is exiting east, but dry air and light winds are still
the rule. We will see a bit of a southerly wind today, with lake
breezes across NE lower, and more sunny skies outside of some high
level cirrus. This cirrus increases late tonight, as well as the
winds above the water sfc. As the front end of a band of showers and
possibly a few storms make it into Lake Michigan and Whitefish Bay,
some low end advisory level southerly winds are possible. This band
of showers and few storms crosses the nearshores through Sunday with
some better thunderstorms expected over Lake Huron. There is a
chance that a few of these could produce some warning level winds.
Monday will see winds turn more northerly with drier air and again,
maybe some advisory level gusts.


.APX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


SHORT TERM...Dickson
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