757
FXUS64 KEWX 160820
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
220 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 205 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2025

Key Messages...

- Warming trend.

A low amplitude mid-level ridge is moving over Texas this morning.
Diffluent flow aloft is producing mid to high level clouds. At the
surface high pressure is centered over Central Texas and winds
across our CWA are generally light. A warming trend is in store
starting today as highs recover back into the 60s, perhaps even 70
in the far southwest, which will be close to climatological normals.
Increasing mid and upper level cloud cover tonight along with a
return of southerly flow in the low-levels will yield overnight lows
mainly in the 40s. Southerly to southeasterly flow will continue
Friday bringing more warm air. Highs will be around five degrees
warmer than today.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 205 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2025

Key Messages...

- Very high confidence (90-100%) for below normal temperatures
occurring Sunday through Wednesday with hard freezes and cold
weather products likely.
- Low confidence of precipitation (10-30%) occurring mainly Monday
and Tuesday

Friday night will be the warmest night of the extended period as a
strong cold front moves across the area Saturday bringing prolonged
cold conditions back to South Central Texas. The cold front arrives
early on Saturday with highs peaking in the mid and upper 50s for
northern areas while those in the south warm into the mid 60s or mid
70s in the afternoon. Temperatures plummet Saturday night into
Sunday morning with a hard freeze expected over the Hill Country and
southern Edwards Plateau with freezing or near freezing temperatures
elsewhere. Breezy north wind lingers behind the front into Sunday
with wind chill values Sunday morning in the teens or 20s. High
pressure Sunday will allow for clear skies and chilly highs in the
40s to low 50s. Cold temperatures will continue next week with very
cold low temperatures/wind chills each night.

The coldest days of the week look to be Monday and Tuesday.
Widespread lows in the teens and 20s are expected early Monday with
wind chills in the single digits and teens due to breezy easterly
wind. Uncomfortable conditions are expected during the day with
breezy wind continuing along with overcast skies building into the
area. Another night of wind chills in the single digits and teens is
expected Monday night into Tuesday. Widespread highs in the 30s are
forecast Tuesday with some locations, mainly the Hill Country and
southern Edwards Plateau, possibly not rising above freezing this
afternoon with lows in the teens and 20s again Tuesday night. This
could bring a long duration freeze for some around 36-48 hours
depending on location. Cold Weather Advisories will almost certainly
be issued, possibly an Extreme Cold Warning. Temperatures remain
cold Wednesday and Thursday, but NBM temperatures do trend slightly
warmer than previous days. Given the high confidence forecast for
temperatures, now is the time to prepare for the cold.

Diving into precipitation chances early next week, the best timing
still appears to be Monday and Tuesday, although guidance has come
in slightly drier. Ensemble guidance continues to bring at least some
light precipitation to portions of the area, but a warm layer above
the surface continues to muddle the solution of if precipitation
falls as rain or some kind of wintry mix, or a bit of both if it
transitions through the day. Have continued PoPs at around 30 percent
for now during this early week timeframe given model
inconsistencies. Stay tuned and keep an eye on the forecast,
especially if you have any travel plans early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 936 PM CST Wed Jan 15 2025

VFR conditions are forecast for the local area airports through
Thursday night. Light northwest to north winds are forecast tonight
through mid to late Thursday afternoon before shifting to the
southeast and south late Thursday afternoon into the evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              64  43  67  47 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  65  41  67  45 /   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     67  42  70  47 /   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            63  42  67  43 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           67  47  72  46 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        64  42  66  43 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             65  41  69  44 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        65  41  68  45 /   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   64  40  69  48 /   0   0   0  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       65  44  68  48 /   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           66  44  70  48 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...05
Long-Term...27
Aviation...05