399
FXUS64 KEWX 051132
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
532 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unsettled weather pattern continues through the middle of next
  week with daily shower and storm chances. Strong to marginally
  severe storms and locally heavy rains are possible most days.

- Well above average temperatures most days through the middle of
  next week, but cooler for this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 1219 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

A mid/upper level trough moving over the Great Basin lifts the front
that stalled to our north away from our area today. Streamer showers
are possible over the Edwards Plateau, Hill Country to along and
east of I-35 this morning into early afternoon. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms will form over the Serrianas del Burro of Mexico, then
drift across the Rio Grande Plains into the Edwards Plateau late
this afternoon into evening. MLCAPE around 1,500 J/kg and steep mid
level lapse rates around 8C/km indicate a potential for strong to
severe storms across those areas.

The trough moves toward the Four Corners tonight where it splits
with one part headed toward the Central Rockies while dragging the
dryline into Val Verde County and possibly Edwards County Friday
afternoon as the other part heads towards Baja California. Streamer
showers and a few late afternoon into evening thunderstorms are
possible along and ahead of the dryline. Similar MLCAPE and steep
mid level lapse rates indicate a potential for a few strong to
severe storms.

Large hail, damaging winds, and locally heavy rains will be the main
threats with any storms. The lower level thermal ridge maintains the
ongoing temperature trends.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 1219 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

The part of the trough that moves out of the Central Rockies to over
the Central Plains on Saturday drags a cold front across Texas that
moves into the Hill Country late in the morning, the remainder of
our area in the afternoon, then stalls south of our area Saturday
night into Sunday. Meanwhile, the other part of the trough closes
off just west of Baja California, then sends mid level impulses over
our area Sunday through Tuesday while the front lifts back north on
Monday. There remains fairly good agreement among models/ensembles
to open up the closed low and move it over our area on Wednesday.
These features will generate rounds of showers and thunderstorms
through Wednesday. The latest guidance now shows a 60 to 90% chance
for at least 1 inch rainfall for most of our area with a potential
for multiple inches across some areas. Moderate instability and
shear may allow for a few strong to severe storms, though heavier
rains and flooding are the main impacts. As this timeframe gets into
the CAMs, the forecast will be fine tuned. The widespread cloudiness
and areas of rain will result in "cooler", though still above
average temperatures late this week through the early next week.
Except across the Edwards Plateau/Hill Country Saturday afternoon
and all areas on Sunday which be much cooler due to cold advection
underneath thick cloud cover resulting in slightly below average
high temperatures. As the trough passes, it will send a cold front
across our area taking temperatures near to below average later next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 525 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

All terminals have MVFR ceilings this morning that will remain
through the morning. VFR conditions will return by around noon.
Southerly to southeasterly winds will continue through the period
becoming gusty during the afternoon. There will be a 20% chance
for showers during the day today. There will be a better chance
for thunderstorms this evening at DRT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              85  68  84  69 /  20  20  20  30
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  86  66  85  67 /  20  20  20  30
New Braunfels Muni Airport     85  66  83  67 /  20  20  20  20
Burnet Muni Airport            81  66  79  65 /  20  20  20  40
Del Rio Intl Airport           86  66  90  65 /  20  30  20  20
Georgetown Muni Airport        83  66  83  66 /  20  20  30  40
Hondo Muni Airport             86  65  84  65 /  20  20  20  20
San Marcos Muni Airport        86  66  85  67 /  20  20  20  30
La Grange - Fayette Regional   85  68  86  69 /  10  10  20  30
San Antonio Intl Airport       85  68  83  68 /  20  20  20  20
Stinson Muni Airport           87  68  85  69 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...05