795
FXUS64 KEWX 100503
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1103 PM CST Thu Jan 9 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 141 PM CST Thu Jan 9 2025

Key Messages...

- Winter Weather Advisory in effect through tonight for the Hill
  Country. Light ice accumulations on elevated surfaces for some
  areas in the advisory.
- Hard freeze is expected Saturday night

The wet-bulb cooling process from this morning into the early
afternoon has just about ended, with air temperatures now leveling
off. Several locations through Kerr and Gillespie Counties are at
freezing with pockets of freezing temperatures into portions of
Llano, Blanco, Kendall, Medina, and Real Counties. Light icing has
been reported in Edwards County and light icing is still a
possibility on elevated surfaces in the remaining aforementioned
counties. Temperatures across northern Val Verde County have leveled
off in the mid to upper 30s and we have elected to cancelled the
advisory there. Temperatures across Burnet County are 33-35 degrees,
and there is some slight room for cooling so we have left the
advisory ongoing.

Elsewhere, a cold rain will continue into the afternoon and evening.
Some isolated pockets of brief sleet can`t be ruled out through the
afternoon. The precipitation is forecast to end from west to east
late this evening through the overnight hours. Before the
precipitation ends, there is a low chance (20-40%) for a changeover
to snow north of a Jarrell to Marble Falls to Fredericksburg line.
Accumulations, if any, would be a light dusting on grassy areas.

Expect dry, breezy and cool conditions on Friday with clearing
taking place across western areas. Additional clearing through the
remainder of the forecast area is forecast Friday evening. This will
set up an ideal radiational cooling night as winds becoming light
overnight. A hard freeze is expected, with lows Saturday morning in
the low to mid 20s for many locations, upper 20s in urban areas. A
12 to 15 hour freeze is forecast across the Hill Country, 6 to 10
hour freeze across most other locations. We will watch for the
potential for any re-freezing of any wet roadways Friday night,
however the winds during the day on Friday should help promote
drying.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 141 PM CST Thu Jan 9 2025

Key Messages...

- Widespread freeze Saturday morning with a hard freeze for most
  locations.
- Below normal temperatures continue through the weekend into early
  next week.

The cold air advection pattern from the short-term ends with daybreak
Saturday, when MinT values hit as low as any other we`ve seen so far
this cool season. If there are any remnant puddles left from the
Thu/Fri rain event, there could be some sneaky ice patches to catch
people off guard while driving in low light conditions early Saturday.

Light west winds and sunny skies Saturday will give us a slight
warming trend of about 4-8 degrees Saturday afternoon versus the
highs for Friday. The still cold and dry air will plummet again
Saturday night as surface winds briefly turn south but remain light.
By daybreak Sunday, a new surge of Canadian cold air arrives with a
high amplitude upper trough bottoming out over TX. This upper trough
wobbles into a low shifting east while a meridional pattern aloft
remains over the high plains through Tuesday. By Tuesday the flow
aloft over TX becomes more flat/zonal and a piece of energy that
breaks from the upper trough Monday forms into another cut-off low
just off the CA coast. This will likely hasten the return of some mid
level clouds, and for this reason, the models are returning a
downward trend in the MaxT between Monday and Tuesday. Some lower
level moisture pooling will be hung up over deep South TX and will
begin moving back north Tuesday night which could lead to some light
showers becoming possible Tuesday night into Wednesday. The flat
pattern over TX continues into next Thursday with only a gradual
warming trend back to near January normals late in the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1057 PM CST Thu Jan 9 2025

The back edge of the rain is approaching the San Antonio area. They
should see rain come to an end over the next few hours. It will
continue in Austin for a few more hours. Temperatures will stay
above freezing and the precipitation will remain rain. Ceilings have
been a little erratic between IFR and VFR and this will continue for
the next few hours. Conditions will gradually improve through the
day Friday. Winds will become northwesterly at 10 to 15 kts with
gusts up to 25 Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              36  46  28  58 / 100   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  35  46  25  57 / 100   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     36  48  27  58 / 100   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            34  43  25  55 / 100   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           37  52  27  59 /  60   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        34  42  25  55 / 100   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             35  48  24  57 / 100   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        35  47  25  56 / 100   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   37  46  25  56 / 100   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       36  47  29  56 / 100   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           37  49  28  57 / 100   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Friday for Bandera-Blanco-
Burnet-Edwards-Gillespie-Kendall-Kerr-Llano-Real.

&&

$$

Short-Term...76
Long-Term...18
Aviation...05