Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 130522
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1222 AM CDT Sun Jun 13 2021

.AVIATION...
All sites currently VFR with light winds. Limited gradient flow from
the Gulf may keep ceilings from forming, but persistence in this
summer pattern will justify keeping a brief period of MVFR for the
San Antonio sites. Tomorrow, there is a low confidence chance that
showers will develop in the Hill Country and could possible move near
the I-35 sites. Will maintain a forecast that does not include
convection, but will monitor for amendments.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 227 PM CDT Sat Jun 12 2021/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Sunday Night)...
Warm and humid conditions continue this afternoon with current
temperatures in the upper 80s to mid 90s with heat index values
peaking around 105 degrees along the Rio Grande. Temperatures will
warm into the lower 100s along the Rio Grande today, with 90s
elsewhere. Humid conditions remain in place overnight and with
southerly flow in the low-levels it will be warm again. Most areas
will see lows in the 70s, except near 80 along the Rio Grande. We do
expect some low cloud development early Sunday morning. However,
with winds veering in the low-levels, clouds may not be quite as
expansive as the last few days.

Little change in the forecast is anticipated for Sunday and we will
once again see highs in the lower 100s along the Rio Grande, with
mid to upper 90s elsewhere. A weak disturbance in the north-
northeast flow aloft could bring some lift across the Hill Country
and southern Edwards Plateau tomorrow afternoon. This may result in
some isolated showers and thunderstorms across the mentioned region.
For now, confidence is too low to mention in the forecast, but we
will continue to monitor.

LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Still not much change in the long term. The upper level ridge will
continue to control the weather over South Central Texas. Over the
past several days models have teased us with the ridge shifting
westward allowing a front to move into East Texas and producing some
convection over our eastern area. But each run has delayed any rain
over our area. That trend has continued today. The hot and dry
weather will continue into the early part of next week. The westward
movement of the ridge is less than previous forecasts have shown and
the area with chances for rain has decreased as a result. We have low
chances for showers and thunderstorms each afternoon Monday through
Wednesday and again Friday. Saturday some deeper moisture will move
in from the Gulf and spread rain chances farther west and north
reaching the I-35 corridor.

NHC has highlighted an area of cloudiness in the Bay of Campeche for
possible development of a tropical cyclone by the middle of next
week. There is no model consensus on how this will develop or where
it will go, but for now both the GFS and ECMWF everything well east
of our CWA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              97  76  96  75  95 /  -   -   10  -   10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  96  75  96  73  95 /  -   -   10  -   10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     97  75  97  74  95 /   0  -   10  -   10
Burnet Muni Airport            96  74  95  73  94 /  -   -   -   -   -
Del Rio Intl Airport          103  79 101  78  99 /   0   0  -   10  -
Georgetown Muni Airport        96  75  94  73  94 /  -   -   10  -   10
Hondo Muni Airport             97  75  97  74  94 /   0  -   -   -   -
San Marcos Muni Airport        96  76  97  73  95 /   0  -   10  -   10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   96  77  97  75  94 /  -   -   20  -   20
San Antonio Intl Airport       97  76  97  75  94 /   0  -   10  -   10
Stinson Muni Airport           97  77  98  77  96 /   0  -   -   -   10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term/Aviation...YBVP
Long-Term...04


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