Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 291103
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
703 AM EDT Wed Jun 29 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A front will meander between Cape Romain and Cape Lookout
through tonight before finally dissipating Thu. Expect a
continued chance for showers and thunderstorms thru tonight.
A return to near normal temps expected late this week and and
weekend as a typical summertime pattern sets up, including
chance for normal daily afternoon and evening convection.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A meandering front will slowly slide between Cape Lookout and
Cape Romain during this period and extend basically westward
onshore and inland. The FA will be subject to scattered to
widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms thru this evening,
with activity becoming oriented mainly at the immediate coast
thru offshore after midnight. An embedded mid-level s/w trof
will swing to the coast during this evening, helping to end the
convection atleast inland locations during this evening. An
upper ridge will approach from the west by daybreak Thu. Look
for mid and upper level drying pushing partially across the area
after midnight tonight. With PWS progged by soundings between
1.75 and 2.00 inches thru this evening, any slow moving
convection or possibly training, may produce brief nuisance type
FLS flooding and have highlighted again this possibility in the
HWO. Max Temps today will run in the low to mid 80s, generally
a category below normal. Mins will run at or slightly above
normal. The result will be a continued low diurnal range of
temps across the FA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The surface and mid level pattern will be weakly forced through
the end of the week period typical for this time of year. Ample
moisture remains in the column to warrant decent pops moreso
along the coast Thursday and with the addition of the Piedmont
Trough forcing basically all areas Friday. Temperatures will be
all but spot on average this time of year with highs in and
around 90 and lows around 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The extended forecast requires few changes this morning as a
full fledged summertime pattern will be in place. With the
region in between the Bermuda Ridge and ridging across the
Central Plains, along with abundant moisture showers and
thunderstorms will be prevalent each afternoon and evening
period. Forecast challenge is when to actually carry the highest
pops but Saturday and again Monday appear to have the best
combination of moisture and subtle forcing mechanisms which is
all that is needed. No heat waves or cool downs expected with
temperatures within reach of seasonal norms.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Meandering front during this 24 hr period will be the
centerpiece for convection to develop. Widely scattered showers
over Southeast NC and Northeast SC to transition to more
widespread coverage along with embedded thunderstorms later this
morning and continuing thruout the day. The inland terminals
will have the possibility to see MVFR/IFR from low clouds and
fog at the start of this period with the coastal terminals
mainly from low clouds and threat of showers. The inland
terminals will see scattered to widespread convection by midday
and thru the aftn. Progged PWS remain in the 1.70 to 2.00 inches
with weak flow aloft. Main convection production will be the
heavy rainfall and possibly gusts to 25 kt. Winds generally NE_E
less than 5 kt thru mid daytime morning, veering to the SE 5 to
10 kt, with the hier end of the range occurring at the coastal
terminals. After 04Z tonight, low clouds and fog will become an
increasing threat at all terminals, especially at the approach
of daylight.

Extended Outlook...Periodic MVFR/IFR conditions from convection
thru tonight due to a meandering front in the vicinity. MVFR/IFR
threat from fog and low stratus early Thu. VFR to become more
common later Thu into the weekend as the front dissipates and
weak high pressure fills in.

&&

.MARINE...
Through tonight...
Loose sfc pg on both sides of the meandering front will prevail
this period...with speeds generally around 10 kt or less. Wind
directions generally NE-E north of the front, and SE south of
the front. Seas will run around 2 ft with 3 footers possible
from Cape Fear northward as a 9 second period easterly swell
dominates. Scattered showers and a few tstorms will dominate
this period with vsby reduced to 1 to 3 nm at times, lower if
hit with 1 of those tstorms. In addition, movement of the pcpn
will be relatively slow.

Thursday through Monday...
Little change in the marine forecast this morning with basically
Bermuda High Pressure the driving feature for winds and seas
through the period. Southeast to eventually southwest winds will
be in place hovering in and around ten knots perhaps a bit
higher later in the period. Significant seas should be the
standard 2-4 feet through the period.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DCH
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...DCH/SHK


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