Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 030624
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
124 AM EST Wed Mar 3 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure developing across the Gulf of Mexico will bring a
soaking rain to the Carolinas overnight into Wednesday. A drying
trend is expected into Thursday, before a dry cold front brings
a shot of cool air Friday. A low pressure system is expected to
pass south of the area this weekend, keeping conditions mainly
dry, but seasonably cool.

&&

.UPDATE...
No major edits needed, only a slight pull back on POP values
in the early going this evening, to account for the brief
break/lull anticipated in current data on the radar scope.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Latest high resolution model guidance continues to be on track
with the previous forecast in bringing a low pressure system
emerging out of the Gulf along the coastal waters starting
tonight. Rain will spread northward into northeast SC this
evening and into NC overnight. Wet weather will continue
overnight into Wednesday with moderate to heavy rain rates at
times. Rain amounts are expected anywhere from around 0.50" to
1" in southeast NC counties to near 2" for where heavier
rainfall may occur in northeast SC counties. Below normal
temperatures expected tonight into Wednesday.

Low pressure starts exiting offshore and rainfall ends
Wednesday night with clearing skies as high pressure moves into
the region. Overnight lows will be a little cooler than normal
into the mid to upper 30s under increasingly good radiational
cooling conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Mild and dry weather in store for Thursday under low level
northerly flow behind exiting low pressure system. Highs in the
mid to upper 60s. A dry cold front late Thursday will reinforce
CAA and drop temps to below normal Thursday night through Friday
night. Lows in the upper 30s both nights, with highs Friday in
the mid 50s. Increased moisture to the south ahead of a potent
500mb shortwave will lead to increased mid level clouds Friday
night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A weak surface low over the Gulf of Mexico Friday night is
expected to move across south Florida on Saturday aided by 500mb
shortwave aloft. Latest model runs keep the low and best
forcing well to the south and then well offshore of our area.
Kept slight chance pops in the forecast Saturday and Saturday
night for southern and coastal areas due to uncertainty, as
shift in track could increase rain chances here. Still expecting
increased mid clouds Saturday, particularly for NE SC and
coastal areas. Highs Saturday in the mid 50s, with lows Saturday
night in the mid 30s. Dry high pressure builds in Sunday
through Tuesday, with below normal temps Sunday warming to near
normal by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Changeable flight categories the next 18 hrs. Expect MVFR
dropping to occasional IFR, especially across the coastal
terminals, now thru midday today due to ceilings and reduced
vsby from light to moderate rain and fog. This, the result of
low pressure moving off the GA coast prior to daybreak, and
intensifying as it tracks ENE, further offshore from the
Carolinas Wed aftn. VFR conditions will spread from west to east
Wed aftn and continue thruout Wed evening as the sfc low and
it`s mid-level s/w trof push further offshore. Winds generally
NE around 10 kt, backing to N this morning/aftn at 10-15 kt
with gusts near 20 kt across CRE and MYR early to mid aftn.
Winds back to NW by evening and drop considerably as the sfc pg
relaxes. With a fresh rainfall and winds possibly decoupling the
1st portion of Wed night, fog may become an issue prior to a
weak NW surge late tonight.

Extended Outlook...VFR conditions Wed night through Sun with
high pressure dominating from the NW thru N. Exception will be
Sat, with the potential for brief flight restrictions due to
passage of an area of low pressure south and east of NC and SC.

&&

.MARINE...
Today through Wednesday night... Coastal low pressure system
approaches tonight through Wednesday. Surface wind flow will
start in the easterly direction before becoming north into
Wednesday before shifting to the northwest/offshore direction.
Speeds as high as 15 to 25 kts with gusts towards the 30 kt
range will create conditions hazardous to small watercraft and
inexperienced mariners, especially beyond 10 NM. Seas will be 3
to 5 feet tonight from the northeast at 6 seconds and from the
southeast at 10 seconds, increasing to 5 to 7 feet with several
wave directions between 6 and 8 seconds beyond 10 NM Wednesday.
Conditions rapidly improve Wednesday night as low pressure
system moves further offshore away from the coastal waters. Seas
Wednesday night between 2 and 4 feet with some continued
varying wave directions expected with NW winds 10 to 15 kts
gusting to 20 kts occasionally.

Thursday through Sunday...North winds early Thursday will back
briefly to westerlies in the afternoon, less than 10 kts, before
a dry cold front drops down from the north strengthening north
winds Thursday night. Winds remain out of the north-northeast
through Sunday, generally 10-15 kts, with an increase to 15-20
kts Saturday night as a low pressure system passes well
offshore. Seas 2-3 ft Thursday through Saturday, increasing to
3-4 ft Saturday night and Sunday. If offshore low passes closer
to our area than latest guidance indicate, could see an increase
of winds and seas into SCA criteria late Saturday into Sunday.
Seas Thursday mix of wind wave and a weakening 2-3 ft E swell.
Friday through Sunday dominated by NE wind wave with a weak SE
swell mixed in.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 AM EST early this morning for
     NCZ107.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for AMZ250-
     252-254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...MJC
NEAR TERM...MCK
SHORT TERM...VAO
LONG TERM...VAO
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...MCK/VAO


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