Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 051058
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
558 AM EST Fri Mar 5 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A dry cold front brings cooler air across the Carolinas Friday
through the weekend, while low pressure passes southeast of the
area with a few clouds possible through Saturday. Cooler air
sticks around through Monday, before a warming trend carries
through most of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A deepening upper trough just off the East Coast should provide
below-normal temperatures for the Carolinas over the coming 36
hours. Cold advection has developed across the area this morning
behind a front that moved through between midnight and 3 AM. Despite
plenty of sunshine today, 850 mb temps will sink below 0C as north
winds gust up to 20 mph. Highs are expected to reach 54-58 degrees,
highest across the Pee Dee region. The incoming airmass is even
drier than yesterday and forecast relative humidity is as low as 18
percent this afternoon.

Cirrus will begin to increase late in the day and should thicken
into nearly solid overcast tonight. Surface low pressure developing
across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico will remain well to our south
tonight into Saturday. Given the cold airmass in place, Gulf
moisture and weak isentropic lift on the 300K surface is all the way
up near 15kft by the time it gets over the Carolinas. Given the
considerable layer of dry air below the cloud base, I`m forecasting
no precip for us. Clouds should begin to break Saturday afternoon
with highs again reaching the 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Trough deepens and moves offshore during the short term forecast
period. Its associated surface low will drag out into the Atlantic,
several hundred miles from the coast. With some of the low-level jet
mixing down, look for northerly winds at 5-10mph with gusts up to
15mph on Sunday. Expect plentiful sunshine, but due to north-
northwesterly flow, temperatures will be 10-12 degrees below normal
for early March, including lows at or just below freezing.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Strong trough pushes offshore by Monday, and some good springtime
ridging begins. Surface high pressure from the mid-Atlantic quickly
slides down into the Southeast, and provides one last cool day on
Monday, with highs in the mid-to-upper 50s. Center of the high
pushes offshore by Tuesday, where it will linger through the rest of
the long term forecast period. Temperatures steadily increase
everyday, with the 70s expected by Wednesday. Afternoon cumulus
start to pop out as temperatures warm.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR. Slightly breezy north winds this afternoon will go calm
tonight. Cirrus clouds move in this evening from the west,
thickening overnight.

Extended Outlook...Low pressure to the south may bring clouds
late tonight into Saturday, but ceilings should remain VFR with
no aviation impacts.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Saturday...A dry cold front moved across the coastal
waters between midnight and 3 AM. Winds rapidly increased
behind this boundary and should blow at 15-20 kt with some
higher gusts through the morning -- just below Small Craft
Advisory criteria. Lighter winds are expected this afternoon a
high pressure ridge begins to expand across the area. Low
pressure is expected to develop across the northeastern Gulf of
Mexico tonight but will remain too far south for any direct
impacts on our weather. Northerly winds 10-15 kt tonight should
diminish to less than 10 kt by Saturday afternoon as the low
jumps across Florida and out into the open Atlantic.

Saturday Night through Tuesday...NNW flow at 5-10kts Saturday night
increases to 15kts with gusts up to 20kts through Sunday night. Seas
increase modestly from 1-2ft to 2ft. Winds veer more to the east on
Monday, decreasing to 5-10kts and seas holding steady at 1-2ft. Wind
direction becomes more variable through Tuesday.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...IGB
LONG TERM...IGB
AVIATION...VAO
MARINE...TRA/IGB



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