Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 261859
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
259 PM EDT Mon Oct 26 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will bring quiet and mild weather through Wednesday.
The remnants of what should be Hurricane Zeta will move across
the southern  Appalachians Thursday, and a cold front will
sweep across the area early Friday. High pressure will build in
from the north Saturday, but a coastal trough could develop just
offshore early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Dry weather and above normal temps continues through the near term
period. Low stratus across the area is finally breaking up, which
will give us a few hours of sunshine and brief warming for today.
Light winds and mostly clear skies will drop temps into mid 50s
tonight with fog likely overnight into early morning hours across
the area, which may become dense in areas. Upper level ridging from
the south and mid level ridging from the east will maintain dry
weather through Tuesday night, with subsidence inversion and dry air
above 850mb. Highs in the upper 70s Tuesday with afternoon cumulus
clouds. Another round of fog possible Wednesday morning with lows
around 60 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Deep-layer high pressure just offshore should provide pleasant
weather for Wednesday. Although cirrus from Hurricane Zeta and
some low Atlantic stratocumulus are possible, deep dry air
between 5k-15k feet AGL associated with the ridge should
preclude showers. Highs in the upper 70s.

Hurricane Zeta will likely make landfall on the Gulf Coast
Wednesday, then should rapidly weaken its moves inland across
the Deep South. The remnants of Zeta will move from the
Southern Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic states Thursday and
Thursday Night. This is far enough away to keep the bulk of the
precip to our north, however strengthening south to southwest
winds could gust to 30 mph Thursday afternoon and evening as
highs rise into the 80s. A cold front following closely behind
Zeta`s remnants should reach the eastern Carolinas very late
Thursday night, possibly preceded by showers.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The cold front following behind the remnants of Zeta will sweep
off the coast Friday morning, followed by rapid drying on northwest
winds during the day Friday. Highs are sometimes very tricky in
these situations as sunshine can offset even strong cold
advection. I`ve trended Friday`s highs up to 72-75, but
additional upward adjustments may be needed if the front arrives
even a little later than currently forecast. Any lingering
morning showers should move offshore by noon with clearing
skies.

Seasonably cool air should push into the area on north and
northeast winds Friday night and Saturday. By Sunday low level
winds should veer easterly as high pressure moves off the New
England coast. The GFS, Canadian, and ECMWF all show a weak coastal
trough developing, possibly with enough shallow lift for some
light rain to break out. I`ve capped PoPs at 20 percent for now,
but have shown an increasing trend in cloud cover Sunday. This
trough should dissipate as another cold front sweeps offshore
Sunday night or Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Ceilings finally starting to scatter out. Look for predominately VFR
this afternoon, with patches of MVFR inland. Tonight, IFR stratus
will return, best chance inland. Ceilings will lift and scatter a
couple of hours sooner than today.

Extended Outlook...Looking at mainly VFR through Wed with possible
MVFR/IFR during the early morning hrs each day from ground fog
and/or low stratus. For Thu thru Fri, expect Zeta remnants to push
across the Carolinas followed by a CFP.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight through Tuesday Night...
Benign marine conditions through Tuesday night as lingering E
swell continues to weaken and high pressure over the area will
keep winds relatively light. North- northeast winds 5-10 kts
expected over the next 36 hours. Seas 2-3 ft tonight will weaken
to around 2 feet Tuesday and Tuesday night, predominantly wind
wave with a weak SE swell mixed in.

Wednesday through Saturday...
Hurricane Zeta will likely make landfall on the Gulf Coast
Wednesday, then should rapidly weaken its moves inland across
the Deep South. The remnants of Zeta will move from the
Southern Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic states Thursday and
Thursday Night, followed closely by a cold front that should
push off the Carolina coast Friday morning. Light onshore winds
Wednesday will veer southerly by Thursday, increasing to 20-30
knots by Thursday evening. Winds will then abruptly shift
northwesterly as the front blows offshore Friday morning. North
to northeast winds will remain elevated through Saturday with
Small Craft Advisory conditions possibly continuing due to winds
and seas.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRA
NEAR TERM...VAO
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...TRA
AVIATION...43


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