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000
FXUS62 KILM 281911
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
311 PM EDT Thu Sep 28 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Generally dry for the next couple days as a front remains
stalled just far enough off the coast. High pressure will then
build more into the area from the north with drier and slightly
warmer weather likely this weekend through early next week. An
offshore trough could bring a few coastal showers toward mid next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Little change to the pattern through Friday, as a wedge of high
pressure will remain in place over the interior Carolinas
through the period. A layer of moisture beneath 850 mb will
result in a broken/overcast deck of low stratus, although it is
sufficiently thin enough to allow the sun to poke through in
some spots this afternoon. A north-northeast breeze overnight
will preclude fog development, however ceilings will lower after
midnight. The stratus should hold on through the bulk of the
morning hours Friday, but will thin during the afternoon,
allowing for clearing from west to east, although clouds will
linger longest over the Cape Fear region. With clearing, max temps
most areas should climb to near 80. Lows tonight will remain in
a 60-65 range, with the coolest temps away from the coast.

Tide levels will exceed minor flooding threshold both along the
lower Cape Fear River and the beaches of SE NC and NE SC this
evening, so have raised a Coastal Flood Advisory.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Not much change this period as surface high pressure remains to
the north and slowly strengthens as low pressure offshore moves
away. Expect mainly dry conditions. Temperatures should be near
to slightly below normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Strong surface high pressure centered to the north will maintain
a dry pattern to start the week with an increasing risk for
mainly coastal showers toward mid-week as the high weakens and
moisture increases from a trough offshore. However, significant
rainfall is not expected through the period. Temperatures will
warm slightly through the period, getting to above seasonal
normals by Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Broken/overcast stratus will persist through most of the TAF
period as a layer of moisture remains trapped in NE flow
beneath 850 mb. Ceilings will lower late tonight as moisture
thickens, with IFR expected late tonight into Friday morning.
The surface wedge will persist, yielding NW flow through the
period.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Skies will clear from west to east
Friday afternoon, with predominantly VFR expected Saturday
through Tuesday. Surface wedge and NE flow look to persist into
early next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Friday: Wedge of high pressure will persist inland through
the period, with a trough axis a couple hundred miles off the coast.
The resulting pressure gradient will support NE winds of 15 to 20
kts, with perhaps a few higher gusts, but we expect to remain below
Small Craft Advisory thresholds. Seas will be composed of a 1-2 ft
long period easterly swell, and a 2-3 ft NE wind wave around 5-6
seconds.

Friday night through Tuesday...N winds of 10 to 15 KT will
gradually increase to 15 to 20 KT and become NE during the
period. Seas will build from 3 to 4 FT Friday night to 4 to 6 FT
by Sunday and continue into Tuesday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Minor coastal flooding is expected through the weekend for both
the beaches of Southeast North Carolina and Northeast South
Carolina and along the Lower Cape Fear River from downtown
Wilmington toward the coast. Coastal flooding will occur with
high tides each evening and potentially also during morning high
tides.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ056.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054-
     056.
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-
     108.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-
     108-110.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM EDT
     Friday for NCZ107.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...CRM
SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM...31
AVIATION...CRM
MARINE...CRM/31
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...CRM