241
FXUS62 KILM 211951
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
351 PM EDT Sun Jul 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Seasonable temperatures and good chances for showers and
thunderstorms will continue for most of the next seven days as
Bermuda High offshore and the Piedmont Trough inland remain
nearly stationary.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Convection began this afternoon, today`s air mass is very
similar to that of the last few days, and it is expected that
convection will continue into the evening. Global Models show
convection to the southwest and moving up to the western
portions of the forecast area by sunrise. Another area to watch,
according to the HREF models, is convection developing south of
the area off the coast overnight. The models show the
convection moving onshore, mainly north of Myrtle Beach. The
confidence in the location of all the developing convection is
low.

Lows tonight are expected in the middle 70s, and Monday`s high
temperatures with expected cloud cover and morning convection
should stay in the lower 90s inland and upper 80s at the
beaches.


&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Area will remain in deep moist SW flow between ridge to the
east and troughing to the west. This will maintain a warm and
humid summertime air mass with chc of shwrs/tstms each day.
Still looks like ridge may build westward by Tues with heights
up to 595 by Tues aftn but may should see minor perturbations
move northeast through the area and timing is a challenge so
greater chc of convection may be hard to pinpoint leaving mainly
scattered coverage overall. Coverage is difficult to forecast
at any one specific time during the day, but with ridge building
westward, should see storms end earlier Tues night. May see a
few shwrs move up the coast overnight Tues into Wed morning.
Main focus should remain along Piedmont trough inland and
associated with land/sea breeze closer to the coast. Temps will
be in the upper 80s to around 90 for highs with overnight lows
in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Pattern remains fairly unchanged with ridge of high pressure to
the east and troughiness to the west, but by late week, pattern
shifts with ridge spreading westward across the south becoming
more elongated from west to east across the south. Overall this
will maintain a moist summertime air mass with daily convection
focused along Piedmont trough inland and sea breeze and land
breeze closer to the coast periodically enhanced by mid to upper
level shortwave energy riding through. Temperatures each day
will be in the lower 90s for highs and lows in the 70s at
night.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions expected but scattered thunderstorms this
afternoon could reduce visibilities to MVFR levels especially at
KLBT and KFLO. Also, a weak short wave will bring an impulse up
the coast mainly after 06 UTC. KILM has the best chance of
seeing TS and slightly less chances at KCRE and KMYR. So have
included a PROB30 for these storms.

After sunrise, the convection that is expected to the southwest
will move close to KLBT and KCRE so have a Prob30 for that
wave.

Extended Outlook... Potential for IFR/MVFR with showers and
thunderstorms each day through Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Monday...South to southwest winds of 10 to 15 knots are
expected over the coastal waters, with 3 ft seas this evening
increasing to 3 to 4 ft on Monday.

Monday night through Friday...
Bermuda high will maintain persistent southerly flow spiking up
each afternoon to 15 to 20 knots. Seas will remain 2 to 4 ft
with a typical longer period SE swell around 9 seconds mixing
in through the week. May see a slight rise Mon night and Tues
night with some 5 fters possible in the outer waters.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 1 AM EDT
     Monday for NCZ107.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...RH
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...RH
MARINE...RGZ/RH