422
FXUS62 KILM 190733
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
333 AM EDT Wed Mar 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry with well above normal temperatures are expected into early
Thursday before a cold front passes through bringing some
showers and possible thunderstorms. Cooler and dry weather will
follow into late week before warmer weather returns this
weekend. Another cold front should bring our next rain chances
Monday into Monday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
After a bit of a chilly start to the day, temperatures will warm
quickly with ridge axis overhead. High temps this afternoon will
reach 80 degrees for most of the area, with sea breeze keeping temps
near the coast in the 70s. Very dry today as RHs bottom out around
20-25% inland, but thankfully very light wind outside of the sea
breeze. High clouds move in from the west-southwest today into
tonight ahead of the next trough. Ridge axis shifts offshore tonight
with low temps in the upper 40s/around 50F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages/Highlights:
*No significant hazards expected through the period
*Showers, possible thunderstorms, breezy conditions and above normal
temps Thu
*Colder/drier Thu night w/ below normal temps into Fri

Confidence:
*Moderate to High

Details: A cold front will move through Thu with showers and
possibly a few thunderstorms (mainly in NC), as well as breezy
conditions. Rainfall will generally be limited to a few tenths of an
inch at most, ending from west to east later in the day and pushing
off Cape Fear in the evening. Cooler and drier air will then move in
the rest of the period bringing an end to the above normal temps
from Thu. Although areas around the SC Pee Dee should dip into the
30s early Fri it looks too dry/windy for any significant frost
potential.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key Messages/Highlights:
*No significant hazards expected through the period
*Dry w/ near to above normal temps this weekend
*Cold front to bring rain Mon/Mon night and a bit cooler temps Tue

Confidence:
*Moderate to High

Details: Despite a weak/dry cold frontal passage Sat night it looks
to stay near to above normal in regards to temperatures through the
period. A weak cold front looks to approach Mon and push through Mon
night with some showers, and possibly a few storms as well. Once
again instability appears minimal so the severe storm risk should be
very low.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High confidence VFR through the TAF period. Only exception is
KCRE, which may be intermittently impacted by shallow fog off
the ICW through morning. Clear skies through this morning with
few to scattered high clouds moving in from the west this
afternoon into tonight. Calm to light southerly winds to
dominate under influence of high pressure. Sea breeze this
afternoon, courtesy of 80F inland temps, will lead to a slight
increase in wind speeds this afternoon for coastal terminals.

Extended Outlook... VFR conditions are expected into
Wednesday night with possible MVFR from showers ahead of a cold
front on Thursday. VFR Friday through Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...High pressure overhead today will shift offshore
tonight, turning light winds during the day to southerlies tonight
with increasing wind speeds as a cold front approaches. Sea breeze
this afternoon, due to inland temps around 80F, will give a little
onshore push to the winds near the coast. Seas 1-3 ft today will
slowly increase into tonight, primarily due to increasing ENE long
period swell with southerly wind wave starting to build late
tonight.

Thursday through Sunday...Moderate to high confidence this period. A
cold front will bring hazardous winds/seas Thu into Fri and we have
raised a Small Craft Advisory for all waters. Could see a few gusts
near gale force as well, mainly beyond 10 nm from shore where warmer
waters will promote better vertical mixing of stronger winds aloft.
The pressure gradient will tighten a bit again Saturday as another
dry cold front approaches and winds could near marginal SCA levels,
especially across the NC waters. Another cold front could bring SCA
conditions again Mon/Mon night.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Thursday to 2 PM EDT Friday
     for AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...VAO
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...VAO
MARINE...RJB/VAO