Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 280012
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
812 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and an isolated thunderstorm this evening will be the
precursor to a cold front moving through the region tomorrow.
Thunderstorm chances peak on Tuesday and Wednesday before the
front stalls offshore, bringing an elevated potential for
afternoon showers and storms through the end of the week. Next
weekend will feature a return to typical afternoon storm chances
and warmer temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Widespread cloud coverage has kept instability limited thus
far, with scattered low-topped WAA showers inland and a few
deeper but thunder-free showers along the sea breeze. Clouds
have also kept temps cooler than expected across most of the
area. Cold front currently across western Carolinas is making
its way slowly eastward. Scattered showers may develop across
western parts of CWA late this afternoon, with isolated chance
of thunderstorms given lack of instability. Pre-frontal shower
coverage expands towards the coast into tonight. No severe
threat. High PW values ahead of the front and storm motions
around 10 kts will enhance rainfall for any areas where deeper
showers move across.

Occasional showers forecasted overnight as cold front makes its
way towards the coast before stalling early tomorrow, becoming
more WSW to ENE oriented. North of the front will see low
stratus develop early in the morning, and likely persist into
the afternoon. Convergence along the front and linger PWAT
values of 2+ inches will maintain rain chances through tomorrow,
particularly for southern parts of the CWA and near the coast
where instability may increase south of the stratus deck. Low
temps tonight around 70 degrees. High temps Tuesday will depend
on persistence of stratus deck and precipitation coverage, with
current forecast on the cool side of guidance around 80 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Stalled boundary offshore will maintain shower chances on
Tuesday night with only a slight chance of thunderstorms due to
the limited remaining instability. This front will remain near
the SC coast on Wednesday with the potential for re-developing
intermittent showers during the late morning and through the
afternoon. The best shower chances will shift south and west,
but light showers along the sea breeze are expected to develop
in NC with the focus of over coastal and inland SC.

Dry air in the mid levels will keep thunderstorm chances low on
Wednesday and further increases confidence in tropical-like
showers through the afternoon. One or two storms in SC may be
able to ingest mid-level dry air and may be capable of
generating a briefly strong wind gust. A combination of cloud
cover and cooler air aloft will keep surface temperatures in the
lower 80s.

Dry air will continue to work its way southward across the area
overnight Wednesday and should provide a break in shower
activity. Overnight lows in the upper 60s inland to around 70
along the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A mid-level trough positioned over the eastern US on Wednesday
night will push offshore on Thursday, nudging a mid-level high
offshore of Cape Hatteras by Thursday afternoon. This will bring
an injection of deeper moisture into our southern counties
where showers and storms will have the best chance of developing
on Thursday. Cloud cover in the region will keep temperatures
to the south in the mid 80s with upper 80s to near 90 in partly
cloudy skies northward. We can`t rule out sea breeze showers as
far north as Cape Fear, but these would be light and brief.

The weak mid-level ridge moves farther offshore on Friday and
essentially creating a tap of deep moisture from the Gulf Stream
in the vicinity of Florida. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
are expected on Friday afternoon with the gradient in storm
chances again dramatically decreasing from west to east. The
weak subsidence inversion from the weak ridge will provide
little to no inhibition for local convective initiation.

Forecast confidence decreases over the weekend as the GFS/CMC
shows the weak ridge continuing to provide southerly moisture
advection while other global models hint at the potential for a
mid-level shortwave to develop along the GA/SC coast. Regardless
of the outcome, it appears that convection chances will be
elevated through Sunday. Temperatures near-normal for the region
in early July {temperatures in the upper 80s to near 90 in an
oppressively humid environment}. Afternoon highs near 90 and
afternoon convective chances return into early next week as
zonal flow aloft and southerly flow on the western periphery of
the Bermuda high capture the essence of the climatological
status quo.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Broken high cloud deck continues across the area this evening
with light south/southwest winds. Scattered light showers
currently across far NW areas, with very little precipitation
making it to the ground. Will see a slight increase in activity
tonight ahead of an approaching cold front, though limited
instability will keep thunderstorm activity isolated.

Front moves slowly into the area late tonight, stalling near
the coast by morning. On and off showers forecasted into
tomorrow, particularly for coastal and southern areas. Stratus
deck around 1000-2000 ft expected to develop along and behind
the front early tomorrow morning and continue through at least
midday/early aftn. Light winds tonight become northeasterly
tomorrow under 10 kts.

Extended Outlook... Periodic MVFR/IFR conditions from
convection late Tue into Wed due to a stalled front in the
vicinity. VFR to become more common as convection slowly wanes
Wed night through Fri due to the front retreating north.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tuesday... South winds 10-15 kts currently across the
coastal waters. A slow moving cold front will approach from the
west tonight before stalling across the area early tomorrow in a
WSW to ENE orientation. Scattered showers forecasted early
tomorrow morning into tomorrow afternoon, with best chance of
thunderstorms across southern waters. Winds turn north-
northeasterly across most of the area tomorrow, remaining light
around 10 kts or less, with more varied winds likely for
southern coastal waters. Seas linger around 2 feet dominated by
8 sec E swell.

Tuesday Night Through Friday... A cold front will stall
offshore Tuesday night into Wednesday and will be the focus for
shower and storm chances through the end of the week. Weak winds
are expected through the remainder of the week, becoming E/NE
overnight and veering slightly during the day; SE around 10
knots, increasing to near 15 knots along the coastal sea breeze.
Winds increase Friday as high pressure shifts offshore.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...VAO
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM...21
AVIATION...MAS/VAO
MARINE...VAO/21


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