Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
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511 FXUS63 KDLH 311727 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 1227 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Light to moderate rain showers and isolated thunderstorms expected today and will stall out over northwest Wisconsin. Showers and storms will persist in Wisconsin into Saturday. - Additional rain totals up to 1.25 inches possible across portions of northwest Wisconsin, which could lead to localized ponding. - Heaviest rainfall and greatest severe risk has shifted west for Sunday, though portions of the Northland could still see isolated severe storms and minor flooding. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 218 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 The front that is bringing scattered showers to the Northland continues to trek east this morning but is expected to stall along the North Shore and down the I-35 corridor. There may be a lull in precipitation in the late morning and early afternoon, but as instability increases and moisture continues to be advected northeastward across northwestern Wisconsin, leading to a second round of showers and storms in the late afternoon and tonight. Severe storms are not expected due to modest instability. As the border is pushed out of the Northland, there will be a brief dry period Saturday evening before the next system moves into the Northern Plains. The track for this low remains uncertain, but models show a progressive westerly shift. This affects both the hydrological concerns and severe weather chances for the Northland. Best chances for severe weather has shifted west, but there may be isolated severe storms with large hail and damaging winds for northeastern Minnesota and far northwestern Wisconsin. The axis for the highest rainfall amounts has also shifted west and slightly decreased. Global models and ensembles are also disagreeing on the northern track of the low. Specifically, the GFS/GEFS show the low moving in a greater northerly direction which would cause the Northland to receive less rainfall, while others show us getting a more direct hit. Despite this, there is a likely chance (60-80%) that the majority of northeast Minnesota will see an inch or more - especially towards northwest Minnesota. Soils are still saturated (80-100% moisture content) across much of northern Minnesota, and additional significant rainfall in these areas could lead to ponding or minor flooding. Once again, we will see a short dry period before another system moves through for the mid week. Models really start to diverge at this point, but there is the potential for more moderate rain. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1227 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Mostly VFR conditions continue this afternoon, with VFR conditions coming to HYR in the next couple hours. Showers and some embedded thunderstorms build back in later this evening, mostly after 00Z. Best chance of heavier rain and thunderstorms at HYR, with DLH, BRD, and HIB having a slight chance for some visibility and ceiling reductions. Rain moves off into Saturday morning, returning conditions to VFR. At INL, no further rain is expected, but gusty westerly winds will continue through sundown. && .MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 218 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Winds primarily out of the southwest at 5-15 kts will persist for the next couple days. Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms will be present throughout the weekend. Some storms on Sunday could be strong near the Twin Ports with small hail and strong winds. Strong winds along the North Shore could posse a hazard to small craft Sunday night. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...KML AVIATION...Levens MARINE...KML