Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 282050
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
350 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY TRACK ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
THIS EVENING...REACHING NORTHEAST MINNESOTA LATE TONIGHT...AND
FINALLY PASSING OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY.
THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE CONTINUES TO SLOW WITH
A STRENGTHENING SW LOW LEVEL JET. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS
TONIGHT/FRIDAY TO CONVEY THE SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING.
LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE SFC FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION REMAINS CONFINED TO NORTH CENTRAL MN THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...REACHING THE TWIN PORTS/ARROWHEAD AROUND DAY BREAK
FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...A SECONDARY AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND LIFT INTO
NORTHERN WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT.

NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN OVERNIGHT/FRIDAY AS PROFILES BECOME DEEPLY SATURATED
WITH A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE AND PWAT VALUES AROUND AN INCH
AND A HALF. HAVE INCREASED QPF AMOUNTS ALONG THE COLD FRONT...WITH
THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED OVER NRN WISCONSIN. MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL RECEIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH FRIDAY OF A
HALF INCH TO ONE INCH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO AN INCH
AND A HALF.

SKIES WILL CLEAR ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO 20 MPH. THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST FOR LOCATIONS IN WISCONSIN THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

BY FRIDAY EVENING THE COLD FRONT WILL STILL BE MOVING ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN WI...AND BE OUT OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT.  THERE WILL
STILL BE ENOUGH LIFT AND INSTABILITY WITH THE FROPA THAT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST.

LOOKS TO BE A DRY AND COOL WEEKEND WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. UPPER LEVELS WILL FEATURE
A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL STAY IN PLACE FOR MOST OF
THE WEEKEND. THIS IS A VERY COOL WEATHER PATTERN. BY SUNDAY NIGHT
THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL HAVE LEFT SOME VERY COLD AIR OVER THE
REGION...WITH THE FCST MODELS PREDICTING 8H TEMPS DOWN INTO THE
NEGATIVE NUMBERS. HOWEVER...RETURN FLOW LATE IN THE WEEKEND BEHIND
THE HIGH WILL HELP TEMPS REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY IN THE
WEEK. WITH THE RETURN FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION COMES A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE WEEK WHEN UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVES ROTATE THROUGH THE FLATTENING RIDGE. BY MIDWEEK THE RIDGE WILL
HAVE BUILT FARTHER EAST...WHILE A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SOUTHWEST.
THIS TROUGH WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A WARMER AND WET PERIOD AT THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION...EXCEPT IN THE KDLH
AREA WHERE LAKE FOG AND CLOUDS WILL OCNL BRING CIGS BLO OVC010.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD LATE THIS EVENING
AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA ADVANCES. MOST AREAS WILL BECOME MVFR OR
IFR...ESPECIALLY IN KDLH/KHIB/KINL. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE TO VFR TOWARD 18Z TOMORROW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  49  67  41  58 /  50  80   0   0
INL  48  61  35  58 /  80  20   0   0
BRD  58  65  41  62 /  70  80   0   0
HYR  59  72  42  61 /  70  90  20   0
ASX  54  69  41  57 /  50  90  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ143>147.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...CLC






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