Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KDLH 311130
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
630 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

UPDATED FOR AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST IS THE ONGOING LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS IN NW WISCONSIN. THERE WERE TWO REPORTS OF 4 INCHES OF
SNOW IN IRON COUNTY AROUND MIDNIGHT...AND HEAVIER SNOW BANDS MOVED
INTO ASHLAND COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING. CONSIDERING LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST SEVERAL MORE
HOURS...INCREASED THE RANGE OF TOTAL SNOWFALL FOR THE ADVISORY FOR
IRON COUNTY...AND ISSUED A NEW ADVISORY FOR ASHLAND COUNTY.

THE NORTHLAND AND LAKE SUPERIOR CONTINUED TO BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF COLD NORTHERLY FLOW THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA GRADUALLY SHIFTED
TOWARDS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE COLD FLOW OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM
LAKE SUPERIOR WAS CONTINUING TO PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY BANDS OF
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF IRON AND ASHLAND COUNTIES
IN NW WISCONSIN. DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY BE MOVING INTO THE
REGION THIS MORNING AS THE HIGH SHIFTS INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST...AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A CLEARING TREND AND
DECREASING INTENSITY OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN NW WISCONSIN.
THE MAJORITY OF SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END BY LATE THIS MORNING.
PARTS OF IRON COUNTY WILL LIKELY SEE A TOTAL OF UP TO AROUND 6
INCHES OF SNOW...INCLUDING WHAT FELL EARLIER IN THE NIGHT...WHEN
THIS EVENT IS OVER. ASHLAND COUNTY WILL LIKELY SEE REPORTS OF 2 TO
4 INCHES.

WIDESPREAD SUNNY SKIES WILL DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH
MOVES INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. DESPITE THE SUNSHINE...THE COLD
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL LIMIT DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE MIDDLE
30S. HALLOWEEN TRICK-OR-TREATERS WILL FACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S
THIS EVENING. PARENTS SHOULD CONSIDER ENSURING THEIR TRICK-OR-
TREATING CHILDREN WEAR THE APPROPRIATE CLOTHING FOR THE COLD
WEATHER.

THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHLAND TONIGHT. THE
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PROMOTE STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING. THEREFORE...LEANED ON THE COLDER MODEL GUIDANCE...SUCH AS
THE GEM REGIONAL. MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES
PLUMMET TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TEENS. THERE COULD BE ISOLATED
LOCATIONS THAT DROP TO THE SINGLE DIGITS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
THAT HAVE A FRESH SNOWPACK.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING
HIGH PRESSURE AND A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WILL BRING A WARMING
TREND OVER THE WEEKEND. THE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARM SOUTHERLY
FLOW SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO CLIMB TO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT TO BE QUIET WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING OVER THE AREA AND SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE.
TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY MODERATE FROM TODAYS CHILL...WITH HIGHS
WARMING INTO THE 40S FOR SUNDAY.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE AREA ON
MONDAY WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WING...FOLLOWED BY COLD AIR
ADVECTION SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. POPS ARE LITTLE MORE
THAN CHANCE THROUGH THIS SYSTEM AS THE TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTING
AROUND AND HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN WHERE THE BETTER PRECIPITATION
WILL BE. THIS SYSTEM TOO WILL LIKELY HAVE A PERIOD OF SNOW MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A POOL OF COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WE GO INTO A PERIOD OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
DAILY SLIGHT TO SMALL CHANCE POPS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CWA. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS CONTINUE TO AFFECT KHYR WITH MVFR
CIGS...AND SHOULD CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...BEFORE GRADUALLY
RETURNING TO VFR. KINL...KHIB AND KDLH ALSO HAVE SOME MVFR
CIGS...WHICH SHOULD MIX OUT AND ALSO RETURN TO VFR GENERALLY
BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z. NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20
KNOTS TO ALSO GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10KTS AROUND 20Z.
WINDS TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 4KTS AFTER 00Z...AND SKIES BECOME
CLEAR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  37  18  42  27 /   0   0   0   0
INL  36  20  45  26 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  37  19  42  29 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  38  14  43  27 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  37  18  44  29 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR
     WIZ003-004.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR LSZ121-140>148.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ121-140>148.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...LE









USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.