Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 161843
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1243 PM CST Thu Nov 16 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1243 PM CST Thu Nov 16 2017

Thanks to some upslope flow fog remains at a few spots from
Langdon down to Petersburg. Extended the fog mention in the grids
for that area to mid afternoon. Lowered highs a bit more across
the entire forecast area as clouds will continue to limit heating.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 347 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2017

Fog loop indicates clouds were moving south over the area.
Precipitable water rises today and peaks Thu night then
decreases from the northwest on Fri.

Water vapor loop indicated an upper level trough over WA/OR.
Water vapor loop also indicated an upper trough over
western ALTA. The upper level troughs will move into
southern MAN by 06Z Fri with an upper jet on the southern
periphery. Precipitation is expected to develop over the
northern zones Thu night.

Main upper trough over the Pacific Northwest will hang back
and move out into the Northern Plains Fri night. This system
may produce snow over the southern Red River Valley Fri
night. The southern Red River Valley will be in the right
entrance region of the upper level jet.

Winds will switch and come out of the southeast for today. Windy
conditions are expected again today. Winds may be near wind
advisory conditions. Another cold front will move out of Canada
Thu night and take most of Fri to move through the area.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 347 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2017

The upper air pattern will remain progressive next week with low
pressure systems moving east across Canada. The 00Z ECMWF/GFS is
consistent thru Tuesday.  Milder air (relative to normal) will move
into the area Sunday and Monday as an upper ridge moves in behind
departing 500 mb trough. Next low to move through Manitoba Monday
night followed by colder air Tuesday.

On Wednesday the 00z GFS does have a southeast moving short
wave/clipper type low moving thru E ND/MN and some light snow
chances.  00z ECMWF/GEM is dry.  Milder air to return Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1243 PM CST Thu Nov 16 2017

MVFR to IFR ceilings continue at most TAF sites. Think there
should be some slight improvement to MVFR later this afternoon.
Some of the models try and bring some VFR conditions by late
afternoon or evening, but given the stubborn nature of the clouds
leaned towards the pessimistic side for TAFs. Think that VFR
conditions will hold off until later tonight as the trough axis
moves in and winds shift to a more westerly direction. There will
still be plenty of mid and high clouds once conditions improve.
There will be some mixed precipitation moving in tonight but very
light and not confident enough to include at any one site at this
point.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...Riddle
AVIATION...JR



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