Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 301737
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1237 PM EST Wed Nov 30 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1121 AM EST Wed Nov 30 2016

...Colder air is on the way...

Closed upper low remains over the western Great Lakes this morning,
inching eastward. Associated surface low pressure is over western
Wisconsin with an occluded front stretching eastward to a
secondary surface low developing across the U.P. Primary cold
front extends from central upper Michigan and just advancing
across the SW counties of this CWA as of 11 am, evidenced by
narrow enhanced cloud bands stretching down through NW lower
Michigan. No appreciable precip occurring with the front at the
moment. But we do have a fair amount of stratus and fog along and
ahead of the front impacting the CWA, although fog/stratus has
started to thin/erode in the last hour or two.

Rest of today: A mix of sun and clouds over the next several hours
as the cold front pivots across the region. But colder air and
thicker cloud cover will be rotating into the state as we go
through the afternoon hours and continuing tonight. As low level
temps cool, we will eventually see a lake response late in the
afternoon and especially tonight along with some lighter upstream
precip slipping through the region tonight. Thermal profiles just
get cold enough tonight to support mixed rain/snow showers in the
inland higher terrain, but no appreciable snow accumulations
anticipated, particularly with surface temps remaining above
freezing.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 255 AM EST Wed Nov 30 2016

...Cooling down with increasing clouds and chances of precip...

High Impact Weather Potential...Low. Some snow mixing in with rain
showers late tonight.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Vertically stacked low currently
centered over Minnesota will slowly slide eastward thru Upper
Michigan over the next 24 hours...reaching the Southern Ontario/
Quebec border by 12Z Thursday. Dry slot preceding the low currently
extending thru Eastern Wisconsin and much of Michigan will also
slowly slide eastward today...pushing east of our CWA by mid to late
evening. Shallow low level moisture will continue to spread
northward into our CWA this morning...resulting in an increase in
low clouds and the development of some patchy fog across the area.
Leading edge of deeper wrap-around moisture coincident with the
leading edge of low level CAA will arrive late this afternoon and
tonight...resulting in increasing POPs as well as increasing lake
contribution to POPs as over-lake instability strengthens with the
commencement of low level CAA.

Primary Forecast Concerns...Low clouds are already beginning to
develop from SW to NE across our CWA early this morning...and this
will continue to spread northward thru the rest of our area as the
morning progresses. Any patchy fog that develops will likely mix out
by afternoon...but mainly cloudy skies should prevail all day. Still
appears timing of increasing lake-enhanced POPs mainly across our SW
CWA will occur late this afternoon as strongest CAA wraps into this
area first...and then spreads further NE into the rest of our CWA
throughout tonight. Highest POPs will target NW Lower Michigan under
the direction of W/SW low level flow. Low level CAA will be
sufficient to not only activate the lakes but to allow some mixing
of snow in with ongoing rain showers overnight...mainly across
inland higher terrain areas. Expect little in the way of snow
accumulation due to mix precip as well as low temps only falling
into the mid to upper 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 255 AM EST Wed Nov 30 2016

High impact weather potential: None.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:

Thursday through Friday night:

Upper level closed low will cross the nrn Great Lakes and morph into
an open wave as it crosses New England. There will be a series of
minor shortwaves and their associated sfc troughs wrapping around nrn
Michigan bringing periods of deeper moisture and lake enhanced
precipitation. Temperatures will slowly turn cooler over this time
with H8 temps going from -3c to -4c, down to -6C or as cool as -8c.
Wind fields through the column will turn much weaker with time, and
more importantly the 1000-850mb flow which is looking roughly like a
mere 10-15 knots. This is going to lead to periods of light lake
effect/lake enhanced rain and snow that will not penetrate inland
too far. The snow will most likely only be in the interior higher
terrain of nrn lower Michigan and interior eastern upper, with
coastal areas more than likely not to see any snow at all. The best
chance for snow, at this point, looks like Thursday night into
Friday morning, again for the higher terrain. This is when there
will be a good tap on Lake Superior in good cyclonic flow associated
with the passing of one of those sfc troughs. Outside of these lake
enhanced scenarios, the times when we are in a more pure lake effect
situation, there is some concern on whether or not we can even
extend moisture up to -10c for ice activation. Thus, at these times,
there may not be much lake effect rain or snow at all. The DGZ is
obviously not even in play, and temperatures are not expected to
even be at freezing for the snow to stick (except maybe in times in
the higher terrain). All-in-all, maybe an inch, possibly 2 locally,
over this entire time.

High temperatures in the low to mid 40s Thursday, and the upper 30s
to lower 40s with low level stratus over this entire time.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 255 AM EST Wed Nov 30 2016

More weak waves move through the flow over this time, with low level
winds even weaker Saturday. Maybe some continued light snow into
Saturday morning. Trends heading into next work week suggest
warming, with maybe a chance at some snow late Sunday and Sunday
night, then no more talk of snow, but more chances for light rain.
The pattern also looks like more cloudy/dreary weather with low
level stratus. There has been much uncertainty concerning next work
week`s weather, with a large spread in the latest GEFS plumes, less
with H8 temps which would only suggest marginal readings for snow
anyway. High temperatures supporting this, generally looking to be
in the middle 30s to lower 40s over this time making collection of
any snow on the ground still rather difficult. Coastal areas more
than likely to not see any snow at all.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1237 PM EST Wed Nov 30 2016

Stratus and fog across northern lower Michigan this morning has
thinned/eroded for the most part, and anticipate a period of
mainly VFR conditions through the afternoon. Cold front will swing
through the region this afternoon with colder air and cloud cover
overspreading the region later this afternoon and tonight. Flight
conditions will deteriorate to solid MVFR tonight and persist
through Wednesday. Risk of periods of IFR cigs late tonight
through Wednesday morning.

Lake effect rain showers will also develop off Lake Michigan
tonight and impact mainly TVC/MBL and PLN through Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 255 AM EST Wed Nov 30 2016

Winds and waves will remain below SCA criteria thru tonight as deep
vertically-stacked low pressure tracks eastward across Upper
Michigan. Conditions will strengthen to SCA criteria Thursday and
Thursday night as the low level pressure gradient tightens on the
backside of the departing low. Mainly dry conditions are expected
today. Wrap-around moisture and CAA will arrive late this afternoon
and tonight...and will begin to produce lake-enhanced precip
targeting mainly NW Lower Michigan under the direction of W/SW low
level flow.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TBA
NEAR TERM...MLR
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...SMD
AVIATION...TBA
MARINE...MLR



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