000
FXUS63 KFGF 050114
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
714 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 707 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2014

CLEAR AREA REMAINS IN PLACE FROM GRAND FORKS NORTH AND EAST AND
TEMPS DROPPING BLO FCST LOWS IN SOME SPOTS IN THE NRN RRV. SO
UPDATED TO LOWER TEMPS IN THAT AREA....JUST HOW FAR THEY DROP IS
QUESTIONABLE AS WE DO SEE A SLOW INCREASE IN AT LEAST SOME HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING..BUT ANY THICKER CLOUDS
WILL HOLD OFF TIL LATER TONIGHT. NORTHWESTERN MN IN THE TVF-BDE-
BJI REGION MAY REMAIN CLEAR WELL INTO THE NIGHT (OUTSIDE OF
SCATTERED CIRRUS). KEPT PREV IDEA OF 10 TO 15 BELOW THAT AREA.

OTHERWISE SNOW AREA THAT HUGGED THE SD BORDER IS DROPPING
SOUTHEAST AND NO LONGER A THREAT FOR ANY -SN IN SE ND. SCATTERED
LIGHT SNOW IN CNTRL ND MINOT-RUGBY TO NORTHEAST OF BISMARCK IS
STILL MOVING SLOWLY EAST BUT UNSURE HOW FAR EAST IT WILL MAKE IT
AS IT RUNS INTO DRY AIRMASS IN ERN ND...SO FOR NOW KEPT PREV IDEA
OF SCATTERED -SN DVL REGION BUT DRY FARTHER EAST. EVEN SATELLITE
AND OBS SHOW VERY LIGHT -SN MOSTLY FROM A THIN CLOUD DECK.

DID ADJUST WINDS FOR WED AFTN TO INCREASE THEM AND WENT WITH MAV
GUIDANCE AND INCREASED A BIT OVER THAT IN THE CNTRL-NRN RRV PROPER
AS SOUTH WINDS USUALLY OVER PERFORM. ALSO ADDED BLOWING SNOW TO
THAT AREA...MAINLY MAYVILLE-ADA NORTHWARD WHERE FRESH SNOW IS AVBL
TO BLOW AROUND. COULD BE QUITE NASTY VSBY EARLY TO MID WED AFTN IN
PERIOD OF STRONGEST SOUTH WINDS WITH GUSTS OVER 30 KTS. 1/2SM
BLOWING SNOW MODEL SHOWS NEEDED 30-32 KTS AND WILL HAVE THAT IN
GUSTS NRN-CNTRL RRV.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2014

AN ACTIVE PERIOD WITH WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA AS
500MB FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND 500MB THICKNESSES INCREASE. AS A
RESULT THE AREA WARMS WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.
THE FIRST WAVE IS SKIRTING OUR FAR SOUTHERN FA IS AFTERNOON WITH
LIGHT -SN.

OVERNIGHT WEAK WAA WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER TO MOVE OVER
THE RRV AND HELP KEEP TEMPS UP WHILE CREATING SOME -SN. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED WITH DRY AIRMASS ACROSS NW MN...WHERE
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO.

WEDNESDAY EXPECTED RETURN FLOW WITH SOUTH VALLEY WINDS AND
STRONGER 850 TO 700 WAA TO BRING A BRIEF BAND OF SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA IN THE AFTN. ACCUMULATIONS LIGHT WITH AN
INCH OR SO EXPECTED WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE 20S AS 925MB MAKE
IT TO NEGATIVE 5 TO 10C.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2014

THURSDAY THE NEXT WAVE IN THE TRAIN MOVES THROUGH WITH 850MB TEMPS
RISING TO NEAR 4C ACROSS THE SOUTH SO BROUGHT IN A SLIGHT CHC OF
SOME FZRA. THURSDAY AFTN THE COLD FRONT COMES THRU WITH 1030MB SFC
BUILDING INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. FRIDAY MORNING
LOWS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLEARING AND TIMING OF THE PUSH OF CAA.
MODELS CURRENTLY SHOWING THE BEST PUSH ACROSS THE FA FRIDAY 12 TO
18Z.

SATURDAY TO TUESDAY...LONG WAVE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE WEST COAST AND LONG
WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. LOW AMPLITUDE LONG
WAVE PATTERN AMPLIFIES THIS PERIOD. GFS IS A FASTER SOLUTION THAN
THE ECMWF THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE GFS HAS BEEN TRENDING SLOWER
OVER THE LAST COUPLE RUNS WHILE THE ECMWF HAS BEEN TRENDING
FASTER. WILL BLEND THE GFS AND ECMWF.

WILL EXPAND LOW POPS ACROSS THE NORTH SUN NIGHT. WILL SHIFT PRECIP
NORTH AND EAST ON MON. WILL USE THIS MORNINGS POP RUN FOR MON NIGHT.
WILL TRIM BACK POPS ON TUE.

HIGH TEMPS WERE INCREASE ABOUT 3 DEGREES IN THE NORTH FOR SAT AND
INCREASED 6 DEGREES AREA WIDE TUE. OTHERWISE NO MUCH CHANGE FORM
THIS MORNINGS RUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 707 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2014

FOR GFK-FAR-TVF-BJI EXPECT MID-HIGH CLOUDS MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH
SOME INCREASE IN LOW END VFR OR HIGH END MVFR CIGS. SOUTH WINDS
WILL INCREASE IN THAT 15-18Z PERIOD AND FOR 18Z-22Z EXPECT GUSTS
TO 30 KTS OR SO GFK-TVF MAYBE A TAD LESS FARGO-DVL. MAIN SNOW
SHOULD STAY NORTH OF TAF SITES.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...HOPPES/JK
AVIATION...RIDDLE