Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 250437
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1137 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 944 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

SHOWERS APPROACHING FROM THE NW ARE DISSIPATING...BUT WILL KEEP
THE 20 POPS NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER UNTIL 4Z JUST IN CASE
ONE SNEAKS INTO THE REGION. FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO CHANGES
PLANNED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN FA SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE REGION BY
01Z. THERE IS ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDER APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST...AND THE HRRR INDICATES ENOUGH FORCING TO HOLD THIS
ACTIVITY TOGETHER SO THAT IT CAN REACH THE DVL BASIN 01Z-04Z..AND
DID INSERT ISOLD POPS FOR THIS TIMEFRAME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

EXPECT A WARM WEEKEND OVER THE AREA WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE
80S AS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE. THE USUAL WEAK SHORT
WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...BUT MAINLY IMPACT SOUTH DAKOTA
SATURDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH AND INTERACTS WITH A
WEAK LOW LEVEL JET. MODELS ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH PCPN PLACEMENT.
GEM TOO FAR NORTH OVER SE ND AND NAM/GFS MORE OVER FAR NRN SD AND
THE ECMWF A BIT FARTHER SOUTH. NET RESULT WAS TO KEEP CHC POPS IN
SRN FCST AREA SAT NIGHT. UNTIL THEN DRY TONIGHT INTO MOST OF
SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST SUNDAY WITH ANY PCPN CHANCES ENDING IN
WCNTRL MN SUNDAY MORNING. SUNDAY WILL BE VERY WARM AND HUMID WITH
HIGHS CLOSE TO 90 IN IN THE SRN VALLEY. WARM AND HUMID INTO
MONDAY. THERE COULD BE AN ISOLD STORM SUN-SUN NIGHT BUT NOT A
CLEAR SIGNAL IN MODELS BUT PATTERN WOULD SUPPORT SOME AFTN HEATING
STORMS AND A LINGERING STORM OR TWO SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY WILL
FEATURE A BUILDING 500 MB RIDGE EAST OF A PRETTY STRONG UPPER
TROUGH OVER WRN MONTANA. WILL MAINTAIN SOME CHC POPS MONDAY BUT
MAIN FOCUS WILL BE IN ERN MT/WRN ND MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING A STRONG UPPER
WAVE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE A HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE ON
TUESDAY MORNING...THAT WILL FUEL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS THE
SYSTEM ENHANCES LIFT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY. UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE CAP AND SOUTHERN EXTENT OF PRECIP.
FROPA PASSES EAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDER ALONG
THE NORTHERN TIER...WHERE COLDER TEMPS LOFT RESIDE. WEDNESDAY TO
FRIDAY WILL BE OVERALL DRY WITH TEMPS IN THE UPR 70S TO LOW
80S...AT TO SLIGHTLY BELOW END OF JULY NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LIGHT WINDS. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT CONSIDERING THE LIGHT WINDS
AND RECENT RAINFALL...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...JK/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG



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