000
FXUS63 KFGF 250333
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
933 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

THERE IS A BAND OF STRONGER 700MB FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS
CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH ASSOCIATED RADAR RETURNS (ALONG
THE EDGE OF THE WESTERN FA). HOWEVER...THERE IS A VERY DRY LOW
LEVEL AIRMASS WITH AN EASTERLY DRY TRAJECTORY...AND ONLY ONE
OBSERVATION SITE IS REPORTING FLURRIES UNDER THE 20+ DBZ ECHOS.
WILL MAINTAIN THE LOWER END POPS...BUT ONLY A DUSTING OF SNOW IF
ANYTHING SEEMS LIKELY AT THIS POINT.

MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE INVADED MUCH OF THE REGION...AND WILL
NEED TO RAISE MIN TEMPS MOST PLACES. DID MAINTAIN VALUES ACROSS
THE PORTION OF NW MN WITHIN THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY. HOWEVER...CLOUDS
MAY OVERRIDE THIS AREA AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS -SN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES. MODELS
IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OVERALL MODELS...AT LEAST THE GFS...HAVE TRENDED FARTHER EAST
WITH SNOW BAND ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE/ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER
JET TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. GFS HAS TRENDED CLOSER TO
ECMWF/GEM SOLUTIONS WHICH BRING UP TO AN INCH OR SO OF LIGHT SNOW
TO THE FAR W-S FA. SINCE THE LATER MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT
WITH THIS HAVE INCREASED POPS ACCORDINGLY. BEST POTENTIAL BASED ON
ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 285K SURFACE WILL BE LATE TONIGHT INTO WED
MORNING. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY AND DEPENDENT ON HOW
FAR EAST CLOUDS GET. PRETTY SURE SW THIRD WILL BE BE IN THE CLOUDS
MOST OF THE NIGHT HOLDING TEMPERATURES UP AND THE FAR NE WILL BE
FAIRLY CLEAR FOR THE COLDEST READINGS. IT WILL BE IN BETWEEN WHICH
MAY NEED MOST ADJUSTMENT. WITH COLDEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NE
AND LIGHT MIXING WIND CHILL CRITERIA WILL BE MET AND HAVE ISSUED
AN ADVISORY ACCORDINGLY.

-SN WILL LINGER ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH WED AM OTHERWISE LOOK FOR A
GENERAL DECREASE IN CLOUDS. EVEN WITH COLD ADVECTION LATE FEB
SOLAR AND LACK OF DEEPER SNOW COVER HAS ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE
AND WILL ALLOW FOR MODEST RECOVERY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTHWARD WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WITH HIGH CENTER INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL ND WILL BE ENOUGH
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WIND COMBINING WITH COLD TEMPERATURES
FOR WIND CHILL HEADLINES LIKELY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

THURSDAY WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE COVERING THE REGION. WITH COLD
START SOLAR SHOULD ALLOW RECOVERY INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO.

ANOTHER COLD NIGHT THURSDAY HOWEVER COLUMN NOT QUITE AS COLD AND
WEAK WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO
FAR.

WARM ADVECTION/RETURN FLOW FRIDAY WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED GRADUAL
TEMPERATURE RECOVERY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE OVERALL PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE
COOL AND DRY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD REINFORCING
THE COOLER TEMPERATURES. WITH THE MEAN JET POSITION SHIFTING FARTHER
SOUTH...THIS WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN MAINLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SO WILL KEEP CONDITIONS MAINLY DRY FOR NOW. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO RETREAT BY SUN EVENING...AND RETURN FLOW ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL BRING WARMER AIR TO THE REGION...WITH
TEMPS TO RETURN TO MORE NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP
-SN AND MVFR CONDITIONS TO THE WEST OF ALL TAF SITES. KDVL MAY
EXPERIENCE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS...BUT EVEN THAT PROBABILITY IS
QUICKLY DECLINING.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ005-006-008-
     009.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/VOELKER
AVIATION...TG