000
FXUS63 KFGF 182307
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
607 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 607 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

WE ARE APPROACHING 00Z AND WIND SPEEDS ARE REMAINING IN ADVISORY
CRITERIA. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES 925MB WINDS INCREASING THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS...ALTHOUGH THE MIXING LAYER ALSO LOWERS TO
AROUND 925MB. MOS GUIDANCE INDICATES LOW END ADVISORY CONDITIONS
REMAINING THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT...AND SPREADING INTO THE
REMAINDER OF THE VALLEY COUNTIES WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
WOULD NEED TO AT LEAST EXTEND THE TIMING OF THE CURRENT WIND
ADVISORY. WHILE WE ARE AT IT...WILL ALSO EXTEND THE WIND ADVISORY
TO COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE VALLEY.

WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT THE PRECIP CHANCES AND P-TYPES FOR
LATER THIS EVENING ON THE NEXT UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

INTENSE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL SASK WILL MOVE EAST
THROUGH CENTRAL MANITOBA TONIGHT INTO ONTARIO SATURDAY. A
SECONDARY LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER BUT MOST OF THE
FORCING WILL BE WITH THE CANADIAN LOW. RADAR RETURNS SHOWING UP IN
SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND FAR NORTHERN ND BUT SFC OBS AND WEBCAMS SHOW
NO PRECIP YET HITTING THE GROUND AS DRY SUB 925 MB AIRMASS REMAINS
IN PLACE. SATURATION WILL OCCUR AS 925 MB WINDS TURN A BIT MORE
SOUTHERLY THIS EVENING. SPEAKING OF WINDS...AN AREA OF 30-40 KT
SFC WINDS THIS AFTN WHEATON MN UP THROUGH JAMESTOWN-VALLEY CITY
THROUGH DVL BASIN-MINOT. AS THE 925 MB WINDS SHIFT A BIT MORE
SOUTHERLY THE HIGHEST WINDS (50 KTS AT 925 MB) WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTH-NORTH ORIENTED IN THE RRV THIS EVENING AND THEN MORE
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. WILL NEED TO WATCH WINDS CLOSELY
AS WIND ADV MAY WELL HAVE TO CONTINUED PAST 00Z IN SOME AREAS AND
ALSO AS HIGHER 925 MB WINDS MOVE INTO THE NRN VALLEY. BUT NOT
CONFIDENT YET AS STRONG INVERSION DEVELOPS AND THIS MAY KEEP A LID
ON WIND SPEEDS JUST ENOUGH. PRECIP WILL EXPAND OR DEVELOP EASTWARD
THIS EVENING SO KEPT HIGH POPS ESP 03Z-06Z NE ND AND INTO NW MN
06Z-12Z. FOR PTYPE LOOKING AT MOSTLY RAIN ALL BUT FAR NORTHEASTERN
FCST AREA. QUESTION ARISES ON IF A WINTER WX ADVISORY IS NEEDED
FOR LAKE OF THE WOODS COUNTY. ALL MODELS KEEP A TIGHT 925 MB TEMP
GRADIENT ALONG THE STEINBACH-WARROAD-BAUDETTE-GRAND RAPIDS MN
LINE. MOST MODEL PROG SFC TEMPS FROM RAP/HRRR HAS TEMPS AT 32-33
IN BAUDETTE AT 09Z. SO GOING TO BE CLOSE CALL. USING TOP DOWN
PTYPE THERE WILL BE SNOW/SLEET MIX TO START MAYBE FREEZING PRECIP
AT FLAG ISLAND-OAK ISLAND IN FAR NRN LOW COUNTY. IT WOULD GO TO
RAIN BY 12Z. JUST HOW LONG WINTRY PCPN WILL BE AND SFC TEMPS IS
KEY AND TOO UNCERTAIN TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY ATTM AS IF ANY
SNOW/SLEET FALLS AT 33 DEGREES IT WOULDNT CAUSE BIG ISSUES.

SPC HAD SE ND/WCNTRL MN IN 10 PCT THUNDER AREA 04Z-10Z. NOT
IMPOSSIBLE AS LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE BUT MOISTURE NOT GREAT AT 850
MB LEVEL AND SHOWWALTER INDICES STAY ABV 0C. SO LEFT OUT ANY
THUNDER MENTION.

SYSTEMS MOVES EAST AND SKIES CLEAR QUICKLY SAT MORNING IN ERN ND
AND BY MID TO LATE MORNING IN NW/WCNTRL MN. TEMPS WILL WARM NICELY
WITH WEST WINDS GETTING HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

CLEAR SAT NIGHT AS HIGH OVERHEAD.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

SUNDAY WILL SEE WARM ADV AHEAD OF NEXT UPPER LOW SET TO MOVE
THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS IS A BIT WEAKER THAN LAST ONE BUT
SOUTHERLY WINDS AHD OF IT WILL DRAW UP WARMER AIR WITH HIGHS MID
60S TO LOWER 70S EASTER SUNDAY. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU SUN
NIGHT WITH CHC OF SHOWERS. CANADIAN MODEL HAS MID 50 DEW PTS SUN
NIGHT WHICH SEEM HIGH....BUT MIGHT BE A BIT MORE INSTABILITY SUN
EVE FOR A THUNDERSTORM. KEPT IT OUT AGAIN WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. BUT
QUICK SHOT OF RAIN THEN WEST WINDS AND A BIT COOLER 850 MB AIR
MONDAY. MODELS VARY GREATLY IN AMOUNT OF 850 MB COOLING WITH GFS
COOLEST AND NAM WARMEST. USING MODEL BLEND STILL GIVES HIGHS MID
50S TO MID 60S...THOUGH GFS WOULD BRING WARPAROUND STRATOCU AND
COLDER TEMPS SOUTHWARD MORE THAN OTHER MODELS. DO HAVE A LOW CHC
OF SHOWERS FAR NORTHEAST DUE TO WRAPAROUND MOISTURE AND COLD ADV.

.LONG TERM (MON NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
UPPER RIDGE TO BEGIN EXTENDED PERIOD PORTENDS THE ONLY DRY DAY IN
THE FCST WITH TEMPS AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE VALUES.  THE SCENARIO
BECOMES MORE ACTIVE FOR MID TO LATE WEEK WITH THE LATEST ECMWF
COMING INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE PREVIOUS AND CURRENT GFS RUNS
OFFERING A SLOWER SOLUTION FEATURING COLDER AIR (SUB 0 850 TEMPS) BY
FRIDAY.

MAIN SYSTEM ENTERS DAKOTAS LATER WEDNESDAY...MAJOR GUIDANCE
WINDS IT UP WITH BOWLING BALL 500 MB LOW THREATENING TO CAPTURE AND
STALL THE EASTWARD PROGRESS BY LATE THURSDAY.  NOT MUCH INSTABILITY
EARLY ON SO WENT SHOWERY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY UNTIL COLD POOL
ALOFT ENTERS THE PICTURE THURSDAY AFTERNOON HELPING TO GENERATE SOME
CONVECTION.  COLDER AIR TO THE NORTHWEST COMES DOWN LATER THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY CHANGING PCPN TO SNOW SHOWERS.  WE MAY BE HIGH WITH
FRIDAY MAX TEMPS BUT THIS CAN BE MONITORED AND ADJUSTED AS TIME GOES
BY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 607 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

RAINFALL TO AFFECT AREAS MOSTLY NORTH OF OUR SITES LATER
TONIGHT...BUT THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF -SHRA AT ALL
SITES. ANTICIPATE WINDS TO REMAIN STRONG INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. PERIODS OF
MVFR CIGS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE -RA/-SHRA INTERVALS. WIND SHIFT
TO MORE WSW OCCURS TOWARD END OF PERIOD SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR NDZ008-016-026>030-038-
     039-049-052>054.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ006-007-014-
     015-024.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR MNZ001>004-007-029-030-
     040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...WJB/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG