Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 170232
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
932 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 932 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

Most of the activity on radar is concentrated over the northern
Red River Valley into northwest Minnesota. This activity continues
to drift to the east-southeast. High resolution models show a
break for most of the night once this moves through. There could
still be a few showers around, but overall not much. Updated the
forecast to match this trend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 331 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

500 mb low in far NW Ontario with upper flow around the low
meeting up with the stronger westerly flow aloft from the Pacific
eastward to ND. Left quad of 300 mb jet moving into ND late this
aftn/eve and with weak instability aiding in the development of
isolated showers as expected. Also noticing on water vapor a short
wave entering NW ND.  Kept isold shra/tsra into the evening and
kept isold showers most areas overnight as areas of mid/high level
moisture around and could be light showers overnight.

Stronger upper wave to move east-southeast thru the nrn Rockies
and into the nrn Plains Saturday. Associated sfc low will move
across E ND Saturday aftn and enough forcing with the upper
wave/sfc features to bring a widespread light rain event to much
of the fcst area Saturday into Saturday evening. Most coverage of
rain central ND into SE ND/central into NE ND. Rainfall amounts
mostly 0.10 to 0.25 inch, which is lower than previous fcsts had
indicated.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 331 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

Shower threat diminishes Saturday evening as wave moves out. Look
for a north wind Saturday overnight into Sunday with a bit cooler
air moving southward. NW flow aloft Sunday into Monday along with
some moisture and weak shortwaves will give a chance for a few
showers. Temperatures below normal Sun-Mon.

Tuesday and into early Wednesday look to bring the best chances
for dry weather with a small area of surface high pressure moving
through.

Models then depict a decent upper wave moving through the northwest
flow aloft allowing precipitation chances to return by midweek.
Plenty of model variability remains regarding the surface features
with the GFS depicting a relatively stronger surface low passing
right through the Northern Plains while the ECMWF splits the area
between two separate surface systems. The active weather could
extend through the second half of the work week depending on how the
models resolve their timing differences. Regardless, at this time,
confidence remains low enough to continue a blended approach of
slight chance/chance PoPs through the period.

Thermal profiles remain fairly consistent with highs remaining in
the 70s/low 80s (possibly warmest on Wednesday ahead of the
aforementioned system) and lows in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 628 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

West winds will become light before sundown. Otherwise, there will
be spotty showers around throughout the night. With the heating of
the day Saturday, there may be some isolated thunder around again
as well. Winds look to remain pretty light into the day Saturday.
The main challenge will be if any lower end VFR or high end MVFR
clouds come southward out of southern Manitoba very late tonight
into Saturday morning. Guidance is indicating this possibility, so
brought in some low end VFR ceilings from KDVL to KGFK to KTVF.
Not a lot of confidence in this, so will continue to monitor
upstream ceilings through the rest of the evening.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Godon
SHORT TERM...Riddle
LONG TERM... Riddle/Lee
AVIATION...Godon



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