Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 142103
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
303 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2014

LOTS OF FORECAST CHALLENGES WITH THIS PACKAGE...FOG/PCPN AND PCPN
TYPE AND EVENTUALLY EVEN WIND. AS OF MID AFTERNOON STILL SEEING A
LOT OF SFC REPORTS WITH DENSE FOG. WILL BASICALLY EXTEND THE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY THRU 12Z MON FOR AREAS OUTSIDE THE FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY. THERE MAY BE TIMES WHEN THE FOG IS NOT QUITE SO DENSE
BUT THINK AS THE SUN SETS TONIGHT IT WILL FILL BACK IN AGAIN.
COULD EVEN BE SOME FOG IN THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY AREA SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION IN THE FZRA ADVISORY TEXT. SFC WINDS SHOULD
TURN AROUND TO THE NORTH IN ALL AREAS BY LATE TONIGHT/MON MORNING
WHICH SHOULD HELP THIN OUT THE FOG...BUT MORE SO IN THE WEST.
SPEAKING OF THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY...MATCHED UP WITH KBIS FOR
STARTING/ENDING TIMES BUT THESE ARE ALWAYS HARD TO NAIL DOWN.
LATER SHIFTS WILL JUST HAVE TO WATCH SFC OBS AND SOCIAL MEDIA
POSTS AND ADJUST IF NEED BE. FINALLY SEEING WINNIPEG SWITCHED OVER
TO FZDZ AND QUITE A FEW METARS ALONG OUR WEST REPORTING UNKNOWN
PCPN TYPE. STILL HAVE TEMPS RIGHT AROUND THE FREEZING POINT FROM
CAVALIER OVER TO CANDO AND DOWN THRU CARRINGTON...WHERE WINDS
HAVE ALSO SWITCHED TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EAST
TONIGHT SO EXPECT CONDITIONS IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY TO
DETERIORATE IN THE EVENING AND MAYBE EVEN LATE EVENING IN THE
SOUTHERN VALLEY. MAY NOT PICK UP A LOT OF FREEZING RAIN BUT ALL IT
TAKES IS A LITTLE TO MAKE THINGS TREACHEROUS. WILL NOT ISSUE A
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THE EAST AS THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD NOT
GET THERE UNTIL MON MORNING. LATER SHIFTS CAN MONITOR AND IF THE
FREEZING PCPN MATERIALIZES AS EXPECTED THE ADVISORY CAN BE
EXPANDED EAST. SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT ALSO STRENGTHENS ON MONDAY
WITH MODELS SHOWING 35 TO 40 KNOTS AT 850MB. THEREFORE SHOULD AT
LEAST SEE WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOP. SINCE THERE IS LITTLE SNOW
LEFT AND VERY LITTLE EXPECTED MONDAY BLSN NOT EXPECTED TO BE AN
ISSUE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2014

SYSTEM SHOULD EXIT THE EAST BY MONDAY NIGHT WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN. HIGHS FOR TUE AND WED BACK BELOW NORMAL AGAIN.

FOR WED NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A GENERALLY DRY PERIOD EXPECTED AS
MID LEVEL SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES. INITIALLY TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
A BIT BLO AVERAGE. SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK SETTING UP MODEST RETURN FLOW WHICH WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER AT OR A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2014

WILL MAINTAIN IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  VISIBILITY
MAY FLUCTUATE ESPECIALLY AFTER CFP THIS EVENING HOWEVER CIGS LIKELY
TO REMAIN LOW. WILL ALSO SEE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR L/ZL FROM NW
TO SE.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NDZ016-027-
     029-030-038-039-049-052-053.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM CST MONDAY
     FOR NDZ039-049-052-053.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST MONDAY
     FOR NDZ016-027-029-030-038.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR NDZ006>008-
     014-015-024-026-028-054.

MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ001>009-
     013>016-022-029.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM CST MONDAY
     FOR MNZ002-003-005-008-013>015-022-029.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ017-023-024-027-
     028-030>032-040.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST MONDAY
     FOR MNZ001-004-007.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER





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