Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 240442

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1142 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

Issued at 1127 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

No significant changes to the forecast package. Still some very
light mixed rain and snow mainly from the northern RRV into far
northwest MN. Aviation discussion updated below.

UPDATE Issued at 639 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

Tweaked the band of higher pops a bit to line up better with
neighboring offices. Else no significant updates to the forecast
package. Aviation discussion updated below.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

The main forecast challenges will be the lingering light snow
tonight and then dealing with the next system for mainly Monday
into Monday night. Currently have some light snow lingering along
and just north of the highway 2 corridor. Devils Lake has gotten
the brunt of this light snow this afternoon, but since it is
falling during the day hours, not as much is accumulating as it
could at night. Grand Forks is finally getting a light dusting of
snow accumulation in grassy areas, which Bemidji had earlier this
afternoon as well. The steadier snow has now ended at Bemidji and
any remaining light snow there is melting. This snow band
continues to fight the dry east-northeast flow. However the high
resolution models continue to linger this band into tonight,
slowly lifting it east-northeast. Meanwhile, there are really no
effects for most of the southern half of the FA, other than there
is still snow on the ground in the band that fell earlier today.

Other than the snow band that lifts up toward the Canadian border
tonight, most of the night will be quiet. The larger scale models
show an area of surface low pressure over central South Dakota by
12z Monday, lifting into north central MN by 06z Tuesday. This is
accompanied by a fairly decent short wave as well and
precipitable water values approaching one inch. Liquid pcpn values
from the models are all somewhere in the neighborhood of 0.25 to
0.75 inches over eastern ND up into northwest MN, so it appears
that fairly decent pcpn amounts will fall. Slightly warmer air
moves in with this system too, so most of it should fall as rain,
but for areas north of Devils Lake to along the Canadian border
could see a little light snow accumulation as well. Along with the
surface low passing from SW to NE through the area, a decent
southeast to northwest Monday high temperature gradient will also

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

Monday night through Tuesday...The upper trough will be pulling east
Monday night, with the inverted surface trough moving from our MN
counties off into the Great Lakes overnight. Best chances for wrap
around precip will be Monday evening so have highest POPs during
that period, but a few lingering snow or rain showers could continue
in the northeastern counties late Monday night into Tuesday morning.
There will be strong cold air advection behind the system, mostly as
precip is tapering off so have only light snow accumulations.
However, the front will drop most of the area below the freezing
mark Monday night with highs only in the upper 30s to mid 40s on
Tuesday. Even with precip tapering off it should be a raw and breezy

Wednesday and Thursday...A weak upper low wobbles across the region
with variation between the models on how much precip clips our
eastern counties. Will continue to keep the 20-30 POPs going that
the blended solution has for us during the time period. Of more
certainty is the cooler than average temperatures with highs
continued in the upper 30s and 40s and lows below the freezing mark.

Friday through Sunday...The ECMWF and GFS agree on an active
pattern, but that is about all with timing of various shortwaves all
over the place. The GFS is more progressive with lead shortwaves but
the ECMWF is faster and further north with the main upper low
lifting into the Plains. Will continue to go with a blend of models
and keep some low to moderate POPs going for Saturday and Sunday,
hopefully refining as models converge on a solution in later runs.
Temperatures will be moderating from the very cool mid week period
but still will be below seasonal averages.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1139 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

Widespread MVFR CIGS and will persist across northeast ND... with
areas of MVFR VSBYS in light snow and mist along and north of
the U.S. Highway 2 corridor from the Red River into northern MN.
Expect this band to slowly lift northward and diminish from the
west through the overnight period. Blayer flow from the east will
persist across the FA throughout the overnight. A mix of heavier
rain and snow will develop across this area through the forenoon
on Monday. Winds should turn from the southeast through midday.

Along and south of the U.S. Highway 2 corridor... expect mainly
MVFR conds through the overnight with persistent easterly blayer
flow. On Monday forenoon...a low pressure center should move into
northeast SD and lift through southeast ND during the midday.
Expect mainly VFR conds with scattered showers developing through
the day and blayer flow increasing from the southeast.




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