000
FXUS63 KFGF 240343
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
943 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 943 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

WILL ADD HIGHER CHANCE POPS TO A PORTION OF NW MN FOR AFTER
MIDNIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS OF SATURDAY. MOST MODELS INDICATE
A WEAK UPPER WAVE INDUCING 850MB FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS THIS
LOCATION. WILL CONSIDER HIGHER POPS WHEN/IF MORE CONFIDENCE CAN BE
OBTAINED. AMOUNTS LIKELY LESS THAN AN INCH.

REGARDING THE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT EVENT...MOST GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. THERE WILL
ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE ORGANIZED BANDING POTENTIAL
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE REGION. MOST AREAS (EXCEPT THE FAR WESTERN
FA) SHOULD RECEIVE 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A
NARROW BAND OF HIGHER AMOUNTS DOES EXIST. HOW MUCH HIGHER COULD
THESE AMOUNTS BE IS THE DILEMMA. 00Z NAM12 SUGGESTS AROUND 0.40
INCHES QPF...AND MOST OTHER HI-RES SOLUTIONS SUGGEST SOMETHING
SIMILAR. SNOW RATIOS EXPECTED TO BE 10:1-12:1...SO THE GENERAL 1-3
INCHES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 3-5 INCHES ACROSS AN ISOLATED AREA
IS THE MOST LIKELY SOLUTION. WILL NOT ATTEMPT TO DEFINE THIS
HIGHER SNOW AREA NOW...AND WILL LIKELY NEED TO WAIT FOR THE ACTUAL
BAND TO DEVELOP. WILL UPDATE THE HWO TO MENTION THE POSSIBILITY
FOR THESE HIGHER AMOUNTS...AND IF THE 00Z GFS COMES IN WITH A
SIMILAR IDEA WILL CONSIDER A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

CHALLENGE FOR THE FORECAST IS TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF CLIPPER
SYSTEM AND ITS TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE HAD POOR CONSISTENCY WITH THEIR RUN TO RUN
SOLNS AS WELL AS MODEL TO MODEL COMPARISONS. AS A RESULT
CONFIDENCE ON ITS TRACK AND PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW BAND
REMAINS IN QUESTION. A BLEND OF MODELS SOLNS...GEM/EC/AND NAM HAVE
BEEN USED FOR THIS FORECAST. THE 12Z GFS IS FARTHER WEST WITH ITS
TRACK THUS IS OUTLIER.

TONIGHT WEST WINDS WILL LESSEN AND SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OVER NW MN WHERE SOME -SN IS
POSSIBLE WITH A SATURATED COLUMN AND WEAK LIFT. LITTLE
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

CLIPPER SYSTEM EXPECTED TO INITIATE CHC POPS IN THE DVL BSN AND N
RRV LATE MORNING AND WIDE SPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE IN
THE AFTN. STRENGTH OF THE UPPER WAVE STRONGER THAN THE LAST FEW
CLIPPER SYSTEMS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A 2 TO 4C WARM LAYER QUICKLY
COOLING SATURDAY AFTN ACROSS SW ND. MAKING A SHORT PERIOD OF MIXED
PRECIP POSSIBLE HOWEVER THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENT WILL BE ALL
SNOW. MOST INTENSE SNOW RATES WILL BE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING WITH SNOW LINGERING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. NO
BLOWING SNOW ISSUES EXPECTED WITH WINDS IN THE 10 TO 20MPH RANGE.
THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS SHOWING BANDS OF 2 TO 3 TENTHS OF AN
INCH OF TOTAL QPF. PLACEMENT OF COURSE THE CONCERN...THINKING WIDE
SPREAD ONE TO THREE INCHES WITH ISOLATED 4 INCH AMOUNT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

SUNDAY TO MONDAY WINDS QUICKLY TURN TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
IN RESPONSE TO THE WAA INDUCED BY THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS CENTRAL MANITOBA AND INTO THE ARROWHEAD OF MN. A LIGHT
BRIEF PERIOD OF WAA PRECIP POSSIBLE AS A RESULT. WINDS BRISK
OVERNIGHT WITH POSSIBLY RISING TEMPS INTO MONDAY MORNING. WESTERLY
SFC WINDS ON MONDAY WITH 925MB TEMPS RISING ABOVE 0C FOR THE AREA
ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY...LEADING TO MAX TEMPS ONCE AGAIN IN
THE 30S.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...GUIDANCE IS IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT FOR
OUR EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...DEPICTING A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPSTREAM
RIDGE AND BROAD EAST COAST TROUGH. AMPLIFIED PATTERN TURNS TO A
MORE ZONAL REGIME LATER IN THE WEEK AS HEIGHTS FALL...BUT THE
TRULY ARCTIC AIR WILL STILL BE LOCKED UP NORTH FOR A LITTLE WHILE
LONGER. LACK OF ANY IDENTIFIABLE SHORT WAVES TRANSLATES TO A DRY
FORECAST FOR TUE THROUGH THU. AT THE SURFACE...SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF A HIGH PLAINS SURFACE LOW WILL DRIVE 850MB TEMPS SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE ZERO LATE TUE INTO WEDNESDAY...MAKING THESE THE
WARMEST DAYS. STRONGER NW WINDS BEHIND THE LOW THURS WILL USHER IN
TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL...THEN A FEW DEGREES COLDER STILL TO END
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 645 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

MUCH OF THE REGION HAS CLEAR SKY...WITH CIRRUS MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. MVFR CIGS LOCATED JUST EAST OF KBJI...WITH ANOTHER
BATCH TO THE NORTH THAT MAY BRIEFLY AFFECT KBJI THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...ANTICIPATE MVFR CIGS MOVING INTO TAF SITES FROM THE
NORTH SATURDAY MORNING...WITH -SN AFFECTING TAF SITES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK/WJB
AVIATION...TG