000
FXUS63 KFGF 240244
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
944 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 943 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

Have adjusted overnight lows up by a degree or two. Cloud cover
expected to be a bit more persistent.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 341 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

This evening will be dry at most locations with just some very
isolated sprinkles/showers as drier mid level air moves in. Cloud
cover will continue breaking up in the south and west this evening,
and breezy northwest winds will weaken diurnally late this evening
and overnight. With an upper low moving in late tonight, the morning
will be chilly with lows in the 40s and a northwest wind, with
afternoon gusts to 25-30 mph.

Small chances for rain showers and sprinkles return late tonight and
on Saturday from the north, wrapping around a 500 mb low swinging
through from southeast Alberta through eastern North Dakota and
toward the Twin Cities. Precipitation coverage will remain isolated
to scattered, mainly affecting locations in northwest and west
central Minnesota. Could have a few rumbles of thunder in west
central Minnesota Saturday afternoon with showalter indices dipping
below zero, but instability is near zero. Saturday will be cool with
highs only reaching the 50s to mid 60s, feeling more like late
September than late June.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 341 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

Scattered showers to diminish Saturday night but do expect a few
showers to remain overnight under the cold core at 500 mb which will
be in northwestern Minnesota. Upper level low will depart Sunday to
the south but still leave behind enough cold air aloft that when
combined with surface heating will generate a few showers over
northwestern Minnesota.  Enough drying should move into eastern ND
to keep fcst dry.  Temperatures Sunday will recover a bit but still
be well below normal.  Monday will be sunny and milder with light
winds as high pressure is overhead.  Tuesday will see winds turn
south and increase ahead of the next front which will move through
Tuesday night into Wednesday.  How much moisture can come north is
in question, but enough instability present to generate some shower
and t-storm activity with the focus likely east of the Red River
Tuesday overnight.  Late week shows quite a bit of differences, with
the 12z GFS showing an upper low developing over eastern SD/MN and
rain by weeks end, but ECMWF isnt as bullish.  GFS looks way
overdone so would prefer the ECMWF for now.  Canadian GEM is also
not impressive for late week rain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 734 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

Expect SCT-BKN VFR cigs through the late evening...with ceiling
slowly lowering and becoming BKN MVFR by early morning. Broken MVR
cigs should persist through Saturday morning...with most areas
lifting to VFR in the afternoon. Winds will remain from the
northwest through the period.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Gust
SHORT TERM...BP
LONG TERM...Riddle
AVIATION...Gust