Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 191751
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1251 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017

.UPDATE...

Issued at 1251 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017

Delayed the arrival of rain in the far south by an hour or two as
obs in far northeastern SD/southeastern ND still aren`t reporting
anything reaching the ground. Current LAPS and model soundings do
suggest drier mid-levels should become more saturated by
mid-afternoon.

UPDATE Issued at 951 AM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017

Fog has improved across the far southern and eastern forecast
area as expected. Therefore, only real update this morning was to
increase sky cover a bit with high clouds overtaking the area
currently and mid/lower clouds to fill in from the south and west
later this afternoon. Timing of precipitation still looks good to
enter southeastern North Dakota early afternoon and spread north
and east throughout the afternoon. Best chances still look to be
along and south of roughly Highway 2.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)

Issued at 420 AM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017

Expect some patchy fog in parts of west central Minnesota from
Bemidji and Detroit Lakes to Fergus Falls and Elbow Lake this
morning. Cloud cover will gradually increase from south to north
today as a shortwave aloft approaches the Dakotas from the
Rockies. This disturbance will bring rain showers into southeast
North Dakota late this afternoon, spreading northward into the
I-94 corridor and perhaps as far north as US Highway 2. Rainfall
totals look to be less than a half of an inch with the greatest
amounts expected in counties along the South Dakota border.
Showers will gradually move out late tonight. Impacts look to be
minimal as the better forcing regimes are well to the south and
east near the primary sfc low.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)

Issued at 420 AM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017

As a second weak shortwave rushes through behind the upper low
Thursday and Thursday evening, areas along and north of US Highway 2
could see scattered light rain showers. Surface high pressure
develops and moves through late Thursday night through Friday night,
bringing a precipitation free period with light wind and much less
cloud cover. Expect high temperatures Thursday through Saturday
to reach the 50s, and perhaps even 60s on some locations Friday
and Saturday. Lows each night will drop into the 30s.

For Saturday through Tuesday, split flow continues across North
America. Longwave trough and longwave ridge over the eastern
Pacific and West Coast respectively retrograde a bit through the
period. Downstream flat longwave ridge becomes a low amplitude
longwave trough over the Great Plains.

The ECMWF and the GFS were in reasonable agreement through the
period however the ECMWF becomes a faster solution by the end of the
period. The ECMWF was trending a little faster over the last couple
model runs while the GFS was trending farther north. Will blend the
models.

High temperatures were decreased one to three degrees for all four
days...Sat through Tue from yesterdays forecast package.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)

Issued at 1251 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017

VFR conditions continue at all TAF sites as high clouds continue
to spread across the region. Some mid clouds are also just
crossing the ND/SD border and will spread northward throughout the
afternoon; however, ceilings should remain VFR. Finally, MVFR
ceilings will push into the area from the south associated with an
area of rain. Impacts should mainly be confined to KFAR this
evening before progressing northward to the remainder of the sites
late in the overnight or early Thursday morning.

Light east winds will gradually back to the north/northwest
towards Thursday morning but remain fairly light under 10 kts.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Lee
SHORT TERM...BP
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...Lee



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