169
FXUS63 KFGF 091735
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1235 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe storms are possible, risk level 1 out of 5, in eastern
  North Dakota late this evening.

- Severe storms risk level 2 out of 5 will develop Thursday
  afternoon and night.

- Heat risk rises to the moderate category Thursday afternoon,
  but at this point it looks like heat index values will stay
  below 100 degrees.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

Still getting quite a bit of high and mid level clouds moving
into the western forecast area, as well as some cumulus
developing over the east. Adjusted cloud cover accordingly. The
models, both CAMs and global scale, have most of our convection
developing after 00Z so will keep our forecast area dry until
then.

UPDATE
Issued at 1008 AM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

Convection just to the west of the CWA has fizzled out before it
moved into our counties. However, there is still a decent amount
of cloud cover from the activity, so bumped up sky grids across
our west this morning. Otherwise pretty quiet and temps already
in the 70s. Still seem on track to top out in the 80s this
afternoon.

UPDATE
Issued at 712 AM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

Elevated convection formed near Minot around 08z and did
increase in number but stayed in a NW-SE line from NW of Minot
(Bowbells) to Drake ND. Overall intensities are lower now, but
still a few cores with potential for sub severe hail. The band
of storms is now more of 2 cells, one SW of Bottineau and one
over Drake ND. So will need to monitor these, but as of now not
in a hurry to move east.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 325 AM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

...Synopsis...

500 mb ridge is located over the Rockies and into southern
Saskatchewan. NW flow aloft presently early this morning and
satellite shows a few mid level CU in a zone from NW into
central ND. 06z NAM3k have a few showers developing in this
zone. Will monitor as we carry a dry fcst thru the morning.
Patchy fog in west central MN, very patchy, but enough risk of
fog to maintain mention past sunrise. Lots of uncertainty in
regards to thunderstorm development, intensity the next 48 hours
ahead of a 500 mb wave that passes thru Friday.

...Severe storm risk this evening...

A few cells forming from the mid level CU west of Minot at 08z.
Will monitor as NAM 3km is the only one to develop these showers
and developing them southeastward along a mid level CU early
this morning. Otherwise looking at a mainly sunny day today
with winds becoming more south- southeast and increasing to
15-20 kts sustained in E ND this aftn. Lower winds farther east
into MN. An area of 70+ dew pts will advect north thru central
ND into western Manitoba this aftn. Sfc CAPE well over 3000 j/kg
develops in that narrow zone as sfc temps reach around 90 or
higher. One would think just looking at instability, severe
storms would develop in the instability axis in far western MB
into ND. CAMs are having a tough time doing so though as forcing
appears weak and may not be able to break a cap, though the cap
seems rather small. Soundings in SW MB via HRRR shows MUCAPE
near 4000 j/kg and -25 j/kg cin. So given any forcing cap would
be broken. But models do want to keep main 500 mb short wave
activity more south across southwest ND into SD and another
short wave farther north closer to main 500 mb low in NW
Manitoba. Will have to watch but at this time areas favored for
convection late aftn/eve is southwest or south central SD into
parts of northern SD and well north of the border by Flin Flon
MB. Any storms that fire in the 22-03z period could be severe.
There is an area of 20-25 kt 0-6 bulk shear also in SW MB and
north central ND that doesnt aid in development. It does appear
though 850 mb warm advection, moist advection with a southwest
850 mb jet of 35 kts will likely be the cause for elevated
convection development in central or eastern ND late evening and
pushing east into MN late tonight. 850 mb jet not terribly
strong, so uncertain of severe chances overnight with this.

...Severe storm risk Thursday...

Some AM showers or t-storms possible in areas east of the Red
River valley to start Thursday, but otherwise dry until mid
aftn. 500 mb heights remain high over the area as trough is
positively tilted from central MB into southern Saskatchewan.
Instability will be there....3500 to 4500 j/kg but lack of
short wave aloft and and still limited shear may aid in
slowing convective development or less coverage of storms than
would otherwise be. There is a weak wind shift that does exist
east of the main cold front back closer to 500 mb trough that
will lie from about Portage La Prairie MB to Bismarck at 00z
Fri. Convection should fire along this and as a better chance
for reaching to severe levels. Activity will progress east Thu
evening but 850 mb jet is quite weak 20 kts so how long it can
maintain severe level is uncertain. But does make sense to have
some higher pops along this boundary Thu night.

500 mb trough moves thru Friday aftn with a chance for showers
and t-storms. Severe weather is not anticipated. Then drier this
weekend, before a 500 mb wave moves thru southern Canada early
next week, with precip chances focusing on Mon night or Tuesday.

...Heat Thursday...

Temps will rise to around 90 or low 90s within the RRV Thursday
aftn combined with dew pts at least low 70s...no doubt some
AWOS`s near crops will see much higher dew pts. Thus a period of
heat indices 95-100 develop in the valley with WBGT values into
the low 80s. For heat headlines, not quite there as think period
of HI 100 or higher relatively short period, But will continue
to message this in our DSS emails to partners.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

VFR conditions for all TAF sites with some cumulus at KBJI and
high clouds further west. A few of the models have some MVFR
stratus getting into the Red River Valley and MN airports later
tonight into tomorrow morning, but may be a bit overdone.
Included a MVFR mention at KBJI but kept it out of the other TAF
sites. Winds that are gusting above 20 kts at some locations
this afternoon will drop into the 10 to 15 kt range this
evening, mostly remaining out of the southeast although KDVL
could see some southwesterly winds toward the end of the period.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Riddle/JR
DISCUSSION...Riddle
AVIATION...JR