Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 171947
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
247 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated fire weather concerns are anticipated across the far
  southern FA Monday afternoon as humidity levels dip to 25 to
  30 percent, but wind speeds should remain below 20 mph.

- There is a 30 percent chance of minor winter impacts due to
  accumulating snow in southeastern North Dakota and west
  central Minnesota on Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 247 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

It remains mostly cloudy this afternoon, but as the sun sets, a
lot of the cellular cumulus will fade away. So will continue the
trend of decreasing clouds tonight, probably more so starting
across the northwest FA and progressing southeast with time.
There could be lingering flurries under any cloudy area. Wind
speeds will drop quickly through the evening as well, becoming
light and variable overnight into Monday morning. Hard to time
the clearing of the cloud cover, but if it does clear sooner
than expected, temperatures could plunge quickly overnight,
resulting in a cooler than anticipated night. At this point,
think the clouds will hold longer, but this will be the main
player in the low temperature forecast tonight.

Not sure how much sun will be around on Monday either. Strong
warm advection gets underway, which should result in quite a bit
of mid level cloud cover throughout the later morning and early
afternoon. Winds will turn to the west to southwest, especially
across the Devils Lake region, and become gusty by afternoon.
Humidity levels should dip into the 25 to 30 percent range
across the far southern FA by afternoon. With the winds also
becoming gusty by afternoon, this will result in elevated fire
weather conditions across the far southern FA. At this point,
don`t think the winds will be strong enough for any sort of
headline, but they will have to be monitored. A cold front will
sweep through the FA Monday night, keeping gusty winds
(northwest) through the night.

Behind the cold front, cooler weather will move in for Tuesday and
Wednesday. Winds behind the front will remain breezy on Tuesday.
Fire weather concerns should be mitigated due to a combination of
cooler temperatures and higher winds not coinciding with the lowest
RH values.

A shortwave will propagate through on Thursday. Currently, 80% of
ensembles place the axis of heaviest snow from southeastern North
Dakota into west central Minnesota. 20% drop the heaviest snow
further south in northeastern South Dakota, which would reduce
totals across our FA. These small differences in placement will have
a significant impact in where impacts occur. Frontogenesis is
present, and will be the main driver of this band of heavier totals.
NBM probabilities of greater then 2 inches of snow are 30% in
southeastern North Dakota and west central Minnesota. Probabilities
drop quickly when raised to 4 inches, to less then 5% across the
entire area.

There is significant uncertainty over the weekend. Cluster analysis
is split into two scenarios. Scenario one, which has a 50% chance of
occuring, brings a low that forms in the lee of the Rockies
generally eastward, producing the bulk of the precipitation south of
the FA. Scenario two also has a 50% chance, and would bring the low
further north. This would increase impacts across the FA. This
system will bear monitoring over the next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

The convective snow showers have become less organized, but are
still out there. Went ahead and extended their mention until mid
afternoon. Handled the up and down nature of visibilities with a
TEMPO group through 20z. After that, think it will transition
more to flurries with decent visibilities. The upstream clearing
has filled in again, so it is unlikely there will be any
decrease in clouds until late afternoon or the evening. Wind
speeds will decrease through the late afternoon and evening,
eventually briefly becoming light.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Godon/Rafferty
AVIATION...Godon


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