Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 230013

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
713 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

Issued at 710 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

Line of enhanced CU dropping south past Grand Forks set off some
showers east of the city toward Bemidji. Did adjust pops for this.
Still expect most/all activity to diminish at dark.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

Challenge for the short term will be convective activity this
evening and then temps tonight and tomorrow. Upper level low
slowly sliding south across southern Manitoba. A broken band of
showers and thunder exist north of the border and will brush the
northern portions of the forecast area this evening. Weak shear
and poor mid level lapse rates will limit any convective
organization. A secondary cold front will drop south this evening
and overnight with winds becoming northerly. As a result
high temperatures tomorrow will be cooler with 70s for much of
the area as we remain in the northerly SFC flow ahead of high
pressure across the western Dakotas.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

For Sunday night through Monday, high pressure departs east out of
the Northern Plains. With dew points in the upper 50s and lower 60s,
light winds, and clear skies, expect some fog development late
Sunday night in parts of northwest and west central Minnesota.  An
upper ridge building in and breezy low level return flow will yield
a warm summer day Monday with highs in the 80s and mostly sunny

On Monday night, a shortwave aloft and trailing cold front will move
east through North Dakota and into northern Minnesota. Instability
developing in Monday afternoon/evening and low level jet development
overnight will likely result in isolated to scattered thunderstorms
for Monday night, with some potential for isolated strong to severe
storms, especially in eastern North Dakota. As there is still some
model uncertainty in the frontal progression, rain chances will
probably remain in the area through at least Tuesday morning and
perhaps as long as Tuesday evening. If this boundary remains in the
area as long as Tuesday afternoon/evening, there is some potential
for a few stronger storms to develop as more favorable deep layer
shear catches up to the boundary and instability.

By Wednesday, upper level trough axis swings through and drier
northwest flow develops aloft with surface high pressure moving in
from Saskatchewan. As the forecast area remains under the influence
of these features, the second half of the week looks dry and warm.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 710 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

Main question is the degree of mvfr cigs that is forecast to drop
south thru NW MN late tonight/Sunday morning. MVFR cigs are
present upstream and models do indicate enough 850 mb moisture
dropping down to keep them intact. RRV/E ND VFR...some scattered
tonight as winds diminish.




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