Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 161208
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
708 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Northwest winds today, 90 percent chance wind gusts are below
  45 mph. Therefore dropped areas from earlier advisory.

- For the week ahead will need to monitor closely for fire
  weather concerns in west central Minnesota, especially
  Monday. MIFC has given permission via MPX to be loose with
  criteria.

- Thursday and Friday next week 20-30 percent of minor winter
  impacts.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 706 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

Large clearing area working south-southeast thru western
Manitoba into eastern ND so needed to update sky cover to go a
lot less sky cover to start the morning than we had. With cold
air aloft and 850 mb moisture present do expect the sun area to
CU up toward midday and thru the aftn. This is likely why the
short range models hint at some light precip in this area
(western fcst area) mid aftn/eve. Gusty NNW winds 30-35 kts
gusts and that is likely to continue today.



&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 325 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

Main short wave trough has exited the area to the south and with
it the strongest cold advection and wind potential at 850 mb.
For today into Sunday area will see gradual cooling at the
sfc-850 mb but winds aloft for mixing up thru 900/875 mb today
support around 35-38 kts for gusts at its peak this aftn.
Sustained winds 25 mph. Thus felt comfortable dropping wind
advisory as conditions not favorable for widespread stronger
winds. Went along with neighboring offices (mainly BIS) and
introduced a low pop for any spotty -sn or -ra today and for
western fcst area tonight. Upstream radar from Woodlands
indicated a few returns. Radar at Foxwarren MB northwest of
Brandon out of service. For sky cover today, it will start off
with clouds and a few clear areas, but with cold air aloft feel
cloud cover will be predominate broken today and thus kept it
mostly cloudy.

For fire weather today...lowest RH values 37 percent in Grant
county and therefore a bit high for any headlines, even though
MIFC did grant offices to issue headlines for much looser
criteria than normal due to dry fuels.

Sunday the coldest day and still breezy.  Highs below freezing.

Warm advection Monday as short wave moves to our north/east. SW
winds turn northwest Monday night. RH values in SE ND/WC MN do
reach the 25-30 percent range so will bear monitoring for any
fire weather concerns. Winds in the fire weather concern area,
especially west central MN look to be below 25 mph in gusts.

Attention turns to mid to late week. A fast moving short wave is
likely to track east-southeast from B.C. thru southern Alberta,
Montana and across South Dakota with some snow chance thru the
fcst area. Intensity and speed of system may keep wintry impacts
on the lower side with WPC Prob WSSI showing 20-30 percent of
minor impacts from snowfall thru the fcst area Thu-Fri.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 706 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

Winds are going to stay northerly through tomorrow but remain
gusty between 20 to 30 knots until Monday with some breaks in
the gust possible during the overnight hours. Once the sun rises
in the morning the TAF sites will start to have their ceiling
and become VFR by the afternoon. There is currently a clear spot
in the sky that extends from KDVL to north of Winnipeg. Its
uncertain how far east it will extend into the valley or how far
south it will move. It could be possible that KFAR and
KGFK/KTVF may have a clear sky just after sunrise due to this
clear spot. In the overnight period ceilings will once again
begin to lower back into the MVFR category and maybe some sites
into the IFR category at times.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Riddle
DISCUSSION...Riddle
AVIATION...MM


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