Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 022338
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
638 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE CONVECTION THIS EVENING AND SMOKE. THE
VISIBILITIES ARE REDUCED IN NORTHEAST ND...WITH MANY AREAS
2-5SM...WITH WINNIPEG AT 2SM IN SMOKE. SMOKE IS VERY THICK ON
VISIBLE IMAGERY AS WELL...AND WILL ADD SOME SMOKE TO THE GRIDS IN
NORTHEAST ND AND MONITOR VSBYS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT CONVECTION
ALONG THE WEAK SFC BOUNDARY TO WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

CONVECTION CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
ISSUE.

STORMS CONTINUE TO FIRE ALONG A SFC TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING FROM
THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY INTO THE JAMES VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH VERY LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...STORMS HAVE
PULSED UP BUT NOT REACHED SEVERE AND ARE SLOW MOVING. CAM MODELS
ALL HAVE SOME PRECIP CONTINUING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY INTO THIS
EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING AROUND 03Z OR SO. DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR
IS VERY WEAK...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A DECENT AMOUNT OF ML CAPE AROUND
1500 J/KG. THINK THAT STORMS SHOULD STAY SUB SEVERE BEFORE
ENDING LATER THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY
IN THE NORTHERN CWA AS THAT REGION WILL SEE SOME INFLUENCE FROM A
SHORTWAVE DIGGING THROUGH CANADA. CONTINUED TO KEEP SOME LOW POPS
AROUND LAKE OF THE WOODS LATER TONIGHT AFTER THE ACTIVITY FURTHER
SOUTH AS DISSIPATED.

TOMORROW...LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES. THE WIND
SHIFT/SFC BOUNDARY OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON MOVES SLIGHTLY
SOUTH AND EAST. MODELS BREAK OUT SOME CONVECTION ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WHICH GIVEN SOME NAM CAPE VALUES
OF AROUND 2000 J/KG DOES NOT SEE OUT OF THE QUESTION. LIKE
TODAY...SHEAR SHOULD BE WEAK AND EXPECT STORMS TO BE SUB SEVERE.
INCLUDED SOME 30-40 POPS MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WHERE
THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED. HIGHS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
TODAY...IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. PRECIP SHOULD AGAIN DISSIPATE
BY THE LATE EVENING FRIDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AND TEMPS
FALLING TO NEAR 60 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO PICK UP IN SPEED AS
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES SOUTHERN CANADA SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SHORTWAVE WILL DIG INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ON SUNDAY AND HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE
DAY. SOME DIFFERENCES IN MODEL TIMING...BUT THINK THAT THE
SHORTWAVE AND FRONT WILL START ENTERING THE NORTHWESTERN CWA LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. EXACTLY HOW CONVECTION PLAYS OUT DEPENDS ON HOW ANY
MORNING ACTIVITY BEHAVES AND WHEN THE FRONT COMES THROUGH. AT THIS
POINT THE BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY
DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING ON SUNDAY IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION...SO SOME FAIRLY UNSTABLE AIR IS POSSIBLE. INCLUDED SOME
FAIRLY HIGH POPS FOR SUNDAY WITH TEMPS IN THE NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES BEGINNING TO COOL OFF INTO THE 70S AS THE FRONT COMES
THROUGH.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BRING A CONTINUATION OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY BEFORE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE USHERS IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK. DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY WILL ENJOY DAYTIME HIGHS
ABOUT 5 DEG BELOW NORMAL. RETURN FLOW WILL BRING INCREASED MOISTURE
TO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...AND A PERIOD OF MID WEEK SHOWERS IS
POSSIBLE BUT THE COOLER TEMPS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

SMOKE IS REDUCING VSBYS AT KDVL AND IT COULD THICKEN AT NORTHERN
SITES THIS EVENING WITH UPSTREAM OBS IN NORTHEAST ND 2-5SM. WILL
ADD SOME SMOKE TO GRIDS IN THE NORTH...WITH SOME VCTS FOR GFK/TVF.
OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT NEAR A SFC TROUGH THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/SPEICHER
AVIATION...DK


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