000
FXUS63 KFGF 210446
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1146 PM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1143 PM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017

High level moisture moving northeast around the Upper low in
western Saskatchewan will spread into NE ND during the night.
Models seem resonable in having a pretty thick cirrus shield later
tonight into Thursday morning NE ND then clearing in the aftn. No
changes were made to going fcst as temps in line.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 140 PM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017

Surface ridging will shift east setting up return flow along with
respectable warm advection overnight. This should hold most area
minimum temperatures to around 50 degrees.

Broad upper troughing deepens from the northern Rockies into
northern CA putting fa back into sw flow aloft. A lead upper jet
streak will lift northeast with the FA coming under the entrance
region of this feature late tonight into Thursday. An associated
surface boundary will work across the state reaching the far nw FA
late in afternoon. Overall convective parameters weak and
convective temperatures close to 100f so convection unlikely. We
may see a light shower with the lead burst of warm advection but
warrants no higher than slight chances. Will be breezy and with
thermal ridge axis shifting over the fa temperatures will recover
above average with southern area into the valley close to 80.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 140 PM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017

Moisture flux increases from late afternoon on as surface boundary
stalls out from near BDE se to ABR. CIN diminishes through the
evening and with convergence from developing low level jet, warm
advection and more favorable convective parameters chances for
thunderstorms will increase. T will likely be elevated but could
see some stronger storms during the night.

Stronger wave will lift northeast impacting the forecast area
Friday/Friday night. Little movement with surface boundary being
parallel to the flow. Convective parameters certainly sufficient
however timing of boundary and degree of early convection limiting
instability an uncertainty at this time. Based on current
forecast boundary position se ND and nw MN have the best storm potential
and highest pops. Temperatures will also hinge on cloud cover but
along and ahead of the front temperatures will remain above
average.

With slow progression of boundary rain potential will continue
into Saturday with the best potential over the se third of the fa.
More significant rain fall will be limited to the far se. With
cooler airmass advancing into the fa temperatures will be much
cooler region wide.

Sunday should feature a wind down to the potentially heavier
rains of the prior days, although broad southwest flow with
longwave trough anchored over the western states will still
provide moisture feed and intermittent showers. Showers as opposed
to thunder would be favored, with the principal coverage area
stretching from west central Minnesota through southeast North
Dakota. This trough should finally transition well east of the
forecast area by Wed, providing a welcome transition to breaks in
the clouds and developing sun. Cloud cover and northerly surface
flow will keep temps under 60 degrees over many areas Sun/Mon
before increasing into the 60s toward the end of the period.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1143 PM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017

VFR thru the pd. Exceptions will be isold-sct t-storm development
over parts of northern MN late Thu evening and night. Inversion
overnight into Thu AM causing low level wind shear with 30-40 kt
winds at 2k ft and 10-15 kts at the sfc in E ND/RRV.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Riddle
SHORT TERM...Voelker
LONG TERM...Voelker/WJB
AVIATION...Riddle