000
FXUS63 KFGF 311804
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
104 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

TWEEKED TEMP CURVE A BIT OTHERWISE NO CHANGES. SOME MORE CU
DEVELOPING AS EXPECTED...MOSTLY JMS-ABR REGION WITH SOME MORE
FLATTER CU OVER PARK RAPIDS REGION. COULD BE ISOLD PRECIP FROM
THESE IN A FEW HOURS.  WILL MONITOR.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

TEMPERATURES AND IF WE GET ANYTHING MORE THAN VIRGA SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES...WITH ONE WEAK SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY ENTERING THE NORTHERN CWA BUT PRODUCING LITTLE MORE THAN
A FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE CAN BE SEEN ON WV
LOOP ALONG THE SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA BORDER. MODELS HAVE THIS
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE WESTERN CWA TODAY AND THE NAM AND A FEW
OTHER RUNS HINT AT SOME PRECIP. HOWEVER...LOOKING AT MODEL
SOUNDINGS THERE IS LITTLE MOISTURE AVAILABLE IN A VERY THIN MID
LEVEL LAYER. INCREASED CLOUDS A BIT OVER THE WESTERN FORECAST
AREA...BUT KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR THE TIME BEING ALTHOUGH SOME
VIRGA IS DEFINIATELY POSSIBLE. THINK THAT EVEN WITH MORE CLOUDS
THE INCREASING WARMING OF THE COLUMN SHOULD HELP TEMPS GET UP INTO
THE LOWER 80S TODAY.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A WEAK SFC PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE AGAIN TONIGHT AND
TEMPS SHOULD AGAIN DROP INTO THE 50S. FRIDAY WILL SEE VERY SIMILAR
TEMPS TO TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...HINTS OF A PATTERN SHIFT
START TO OCCUR AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES DOWN ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA AND INTO ONTARIO. THIS SHOULD HELP PUSH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
INTO THE REGION. AT THIS POINT IT SEEMS THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL BE
APPROACHING OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE IN THE DAY ON
SATURDAY...MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO DIG TOWARDS THE ARROWHEAD OF MN. STILL NOT
HUGE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...BUT THINK THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH TO GET SOME STORMS GOING ALONG THE FRONT. KEPT POPS IN THE
20-40 PERCENT RANGE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SLOW...SUBTLE
DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE PATTERN THIS PERIOD. MODELS REMAIN RELATIVELY
CONSISTENT WITH POPS AND TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD. CHANCE POPS
INDICATED THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE PERIOD  AS RIDGE RIDING WAVES AND

FOR SUNDAY RETURN FLOW OUT OF DEPARTING HIGH WILL NOT RESULT IN A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THE TEMPERATURE REGIME. FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY TEMPERATURES REALLY DO NOT VARY MUCH AS CLOUD COVER EXPECTED
TO MITIGATE WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. MODELS AGREE THAT ENERGY
MOVING ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE SUPPORT POPS...AND TIMING IS ALL
BUT IMPOSSIBLE TO PIN DOWN AT THIS TIME FRAME.

FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY A SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPS. ALONG WITH THE
UPPER HIGH RETROGRESSING SOME DRIER AIR INFILTRATES THE REGION FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. GFS HOLDS ONTO INVERTED TROUGH AND LOW POPS
EAST OF THE VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHILE DGEX AND ECMWF MUCH LESS
BULLISH SO WILL CUT POPS AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 103 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

VFR CONDS OVER NEXT 24 HRS. WILL SEE CU FIELD DEVELOP ESP ACROSS SE
ND THIS AFTN...AND WILL RAPIDLY CLEAR OUT AFT SUNDOWN TONIGHT. LIGHT
NW WINDS TO CONTINUE AND MAY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/EWENS
AVIATION...SPEICHER