000
FXUS63 KFGF 061837
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1237 PM CST FRI DEC 6 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 945 AM CST FRI DEC 6 2013

15Z TEMPERATURES ARE -10F TO -20F...WHICH ARE THE COLDEST OF THE
DAY. THERE WILL BE SOME MIXING AND SOLAR...BUT MOST GUIDANCE
INDICATES VALUES WILL ONLY BE ABLE TO RISE ABOUT 10F (GIVEN THE
TIME OF YEAR AND AIRMASS IN PLACE). THUS...LOWERED MAX TEMPS FOR
TODAY A FEW DEGREES (WHICH MAY NOT EVEN BE COLD ENOUGH). WIND
CHILLS SHOULD REMAIN IN ADVISORY CRITERIA MUCH OF THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST FRI DEC 6 2013

ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS OVER JAMES BAY AND EXTENDED INTO
SOUTHERN SASK. UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA SAT NIGHT.
IR LOOP INDICATED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING WEST ACROSS SOUTHERN
MAN AND SOUTHERN SASK. SOME OF THE CLOUDS MAY BRUSH THE FAR NORTHERN
ZONES TONIGHT AND SAT.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO DEVELOP OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUN AND SUN NIGHT. MAJORITY OF
PRECIP SHOULD FALL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. TWEAKED POPS
FOR SUN AND SUN NIGHT.

PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAIN UP FOR TONIGHT ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHEAST
ZONES AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. WILL
RAISE LOW TEMPS A BIT IN THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. HAVE GENERALLY
RAISED TEMPS THIS PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST FRI DEC 6 2013

FOR MON THROUGH THU...THE VERY COLD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
WOULD BE MON NIGHT WITH A SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD SURGE.
MODELS ALSO HINTING AT SOME MORE LIGHT SNOW CHANCES TOWARDS THE END
OF NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH WITH DEEPER MOISTURE DISPLACED WELL SOUTH OF
US...NO MAJOR STORMS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CST FRI DEC 6 2013

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY
WESTERLY AT AROUND 10 KTS. SEEING SOME CLOUD DEVELOPMENT EAST OF
THE VALLEY...WITH PATCHES OF VFR OR POSSIBLY MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR MNZ001>009-
     013>017-022>024-027>032-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...MAKOWSKI