Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 312350
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
650 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 650 PM CDT Tue May 31 2016

Adjusted POPs to fit current radar trends in the next few hours
as the main low pressure system continues to slowly rotate into
the western counties. Extended thunder mention a bit longer as
there should be some small CAPE values hanging around for the next
few hours until the sun goes down. Storms are producing pea sized
hail at most but with the upper low overhead will monitor the
non-supercell tornado parameter until sunset.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Tue May 31 2016

Main forecast challenge remains dealing with the weather elements
associated with the stacked low over central ND. As of 3 pm,
seeing quite a bit of convective cloud cover east of the low, or
over most of this FA. Much more stratiform clouds behind it over
western ND. Looking at the SPC meso page, a thin ribbon of 1000
SBCAPE has developed along the Canadian border between Pembina and
Bottineau. The non supercell tornado product has been highlighting
one area around KBIS and another area northwest of KMOT. Sfc map
shows a boundary extending from the low near KMOT, northeast into
southern Manitoba, then southeast into portions of NW MN. Regional
radars show some cells from east of KHCO to near Brandon Manitoba,
which may be the area to watch this evening for funnels or weak
tornadoes. However with cold temps aloft and the presence of the
low, could get a few reports of these about anywhere in central or
eastern ND. Otherwise expect some showers/ISO storms working into
the FA from the west this evening. Most of the high resolution
guidance indicates the most activity working into east central ND,
then lift it into the northern Red River Valley late. Some of
these echoes will linger into Wed as the low progresses ENE. Best
pcpn chances Wed should be around the Lake of the Woods. This pcpn
should exit out of the FA Wed night.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Tue May 31 2016

FA should finally be free of this low pressure system by Thu with
lighter winds and a little more sun. Next sfc low moves in from
the NW Thu night and will linger into Friday.

For Fri night through Tuesday...Upper level short wave will exit
the area on Saturday with rain showers ending. Upper level trough
to hang up a bit to our east and with cold air aloft could see a
few showers over northern MN into Sunday as well. For Monday and
Tuesday generally dry weather as some upper level ridging moves
into the northern Plains. The northern edge of this upper ridge
may see some weak disturbances pass through and will have a low
chance for a few showers Mon and Tues along Canadian border.
Provided we get some sun temps should be near normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 650 PM CDT Tue May 31 2016

Included a thunder mention at KDVL and KGFK for current convection
moving through the forecast area. The threat for thunderstorms
will go down after sunset, but showers will linger as a low
pressure system moves into the Red River valley this evening and
into western MN overnight. Have at least a VCSH going through much
of the night. Ceilings will also be going down to MVFR with some
IFR conditions possible towards morning. Have visibilites staying
up but there could be some brief periods of reduction this evening
if a storm moves directly over the airport. Conditions should
return to MVFR by tomorrow afternoon with showers ending from west
to east. Winds will be shifting around as the low goes across the
area, starting from the south or southwest this evening and
eventually coming around to the northwest by tomorrow. Some
stronger gusts above 20 kts will be possible tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...Godon
LONG TERM...Godon/Riddle
AVIATION...JR


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