Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 270543
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1143 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

SFC RIDGE AXIS HAS SETTLED OVER THE CENTER OF THE CWA...BUT THE
CLOUDS HAVE MOVED LITTLE FURTHER EASTWARD FROM THE RED RIVER AT
LEAST IN THE NORTHERN VALLEY. THERE ARE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS
STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES...SO THE FREE FALL
OF BELOW ZERO TEMPS FROM DVL AND POINTS NORTH SHOULD START TO
LEVEL OFF. THINK THAT THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST...WITH
THE WESTERN DECK FASTER AND POSSIBLY OVERTAKING THE EASTERN DECK
WHICH HAS BEEN SLOW TO BUDGE. CONTINUED TO KEEP SOME CLEARING IN
THE VALLEY TOWARDS MORNING BUT MAY HAVE TO ADJUST IF THE DRYING
NEVER MAKES IT INTO THE CENTRAL CWA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 949 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

STRATUS HAS REMAINED OVER THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY AND IS
EVEN SPITTING OUT SOME MORE FLURRIES. MUCH OF THE WESTERN CWA HAS
REMAINED CLEAR AND SOME SPOTS IN THE NORTHWEST HAVE DROPPED DOWN
TO THE -5 TO -10 RANGE. THINK THAT THE COLDEST AREAS COULD BOTTOM
OUT AROUND -10 BUT CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST SO
THEY SHOULD SLOWLY START TO RISE AFTER MIDNIGHT. TRIED TO ADJUST
CLOUDS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS AND FOLLOW THE RAP WHICH HAS BEEN
NOT TOO FAR OFF...THE CLEAR AREA MOVING EAST INTO THE VALLEY
TOWARDS MORNING WHILE THE WEST CLOUDS UP AGAIN. EXTENDED THE
FLURRY MENTION...PUTTING ISOLATED OR SCATTERED WHEREVER THE CLOUDS
ARE OVERNIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 655 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

CLOUDS WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE...AS THE NORTHERN VALLEY HAS SEEN A
BIT MORE CLOUDS MOVING DOWN OUT OF CANADA...BUT THE WEST CONTINUES
TO BE CLEAR. TEMPS JUST NORTH OF LANGDON ARE ALREADY DOWN AROUND
MINUS 8...SO THINK PREVIOUS SHIFTS IDEA OF A SHARP DROP OFF AND
THEN RISING TEMPS LATER ON AS MORE CLOUDS COME IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN
SLOW TO CLEAR FROM THE NORTHWEST...BUT THE CLEARING CONTINUES TO
MAKE PROGRESS FROM WEST TO EAST. RAP/HRRR GUIDANCE CLEARS AREAS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY BY THIS EVENING...BUT KEEPS AREAS
EAST OF THE VALLEY CLOUDY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. TRENDED SLOWER
WITH THE CLEARING EAST OF THE VALLEY...BUT STILL KEPT THE IDEA
FOR CLEARING BY MORNING (LATER UPDATES WILL NEED TO EVALUATE IF
THE HRRR/RAP IDEA MIGHT BE BETTER). MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE EVEN
TRICKIER...MUCH DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER. THERE SHOULD BE A QUICK
DROP THIS EVENING WHERE SKY IS CLEAR...BUT WARM AIR
ADVECTION/RETURN FLOW KICKS IN AFTER MIDNIGHT WHICH SHOULD STEADY
OR SLOWLY RISE TEMPS (AT LEAST FOR THE DVL BASIN...NOT SURE ABOUT
VALLEY LOCATIONS).

COLD FRONT POISED TO DROP THROUGH THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT. ONE LAST
WARMER DAY ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...WITH CLOUDS
INCREASING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THIS FROPA WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
WEAK FORCING...SO ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES POSSIBLE. MODELS
INDICATE THAT COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK...LEADING
TO A SHALLOW MIXING LAYER WITH 15-20 KNOTS AVAILABLE TO MIX
(WINDS MAYBE BREEZY...BUT NOT STRONG).

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

SUNDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH
COLDER THAN THE PREVIOUS COUPLE WEEKS...WITH MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS (ABOVE OR BELOW ZERO)...AND MIN TEMPS MAINLY
BELOW ZERO. THE MAIN CONCERN THIS PERIOD WILL BE WIND CHILL
VALUES. THE STRONGEST AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS...KEEPING THIS REGION WITHIN A WEAK SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR WIND SPEEDS AOA 5 KNOTS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT WHEN TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE COLDEST
(LEADING TO POTENTIAL WIND CHILL ADVISORY CONDITIONS).

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...LONG WAVE RIDGE FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER WESTERN
NORTH AMERICA INTO AK WHILE LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM HUDSON
BAY TO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. LONG WAVE TROUGH SHIFTS OVER EASTERN
NORTH AMERICA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. LONG WAVE UPPER RIDGE
DEAMPLIFIES WHILE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER HUDSON BAY AMPLIFIES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

ECMWF AND GFS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD.
THE GFS WAS A LITTLE FASTER AND BECOMES FASTER THAN THE ECMWF FOR
THE REST OF THE PERIOD. WILL PREFER THE SLOWER ECMWF.

WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN POPS FROM THIS MORNINGS PACKAGE
AND POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOONS RUN FOR WED NIGHT AND THU.

A COLD DAY TO START ON TUE. SOME MODERATION ON WED AND THU, THEN BACK
INTO ARCTIC AIR ON FRI. HIGH TEMPS WERE GENERALLY INCREASED A DEGREE
OR TWO FOR TUE AND WED, INCREASED ONE TO FOUR DEGREES ON THU AND
LITTLE CHANGE ON FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT KGFK...KTVF...AND KBJI ALONG WITH AN
ISOLATED FLURRY AT TIMES AT KBJI. KDVL IS CURRENTLY CLEAR BUT WILL
CLOUD UP IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST.
CURRENT OBS OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN ND HAVE THE LEADING EDGE OF
CLOUDS MAINLY IN THE 5000-7000 FT RANGE SO THINK VFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE A BIT LONGER. MVFR CIGS ARE FURTHER BEHIND
THOUGH...AND THINK ALL TAF SITES SHOULD GO DOWN IN CATEGORY BY MID
MORNING TOMORROW. THINK THAT THE STRATUS WILL STICK AROUND FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE DOWN
INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH CLOUDS AND
EVEN SOME LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE.
HOWEVER...UNCERTAIN WHERE THE SNOW WILL BE SO WILL LEAVE OUT FOR
NOW. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/HOPPES
AVIATION...JR





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