Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 251315

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
715 AM CST Sat Feb 25 2017

Issued at 715 AM CST Sat Feb 25 2017

Tweaked POPs for current radar trends. Most of the activity in the
RRV has been flurries so far, but a dusting is possible in some
spots so included some 20-30 probabilities moving east this


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 338 AM CST Sat Feb 25 2017

How much and where snow will fall will be the main challenges for
the period.

Water vapor loop still has the main upper shortwave trough over
ID/western MT, but there has been some light radar returns along
the surface trough axis currently over central ND. The RAP, HRRR,
and ARW all have some light QPF moving into our north central
counties along this trough axis later this morning, so bumped up
POPs a bit. The models all develop a weak surface trough/low near
the ND/SD border later this afternoon, moving it into our southern
counties tonight. Think this will provide another round of light
snow, with a few of the models showing a small area of fairly
healthy QPF. The final round of light snow should be with the main
upper shortwave late tonight and into tomorrow. All rounds will be
short lived and quick moving, producing totals ranging from only a
dusting to an inch, although exact tracking of the features and
heaviest bands is somewhat uncertain at this point. For now have
most of the accumulation in the southern and central CWA.

As for temperatures, increasing clouds today, but there will be
slightly warmer 925mb temps moving in thanks to westerly winds at
the surface today. Will continue to keep highs ranging from near
20 in the far northwest where there is still snow to mid 30s in
the south where there is none. Decent cold air advection late
tonight behind the departing surface low, and winds could be a bit
higher than some of the models have in there. The south will stay
cloudy and in the teens with some readings near zero in the north.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 338 AM CST Sat Feb 25 2017

Sunday and Monday...Weak surface high pressure builds in after the
departing shortwave Sunday morning. However, another very weak
shortwave in the near zonal flow will bring another weak surface
trough in Sunday night, this time with most model solutions taking
the system and light snow over the northern counties. The near
zonal flow with very weak disturbances bringing flurries or light
snow showers will continue into Monday and Monday night.
Temperatures for Sunday and Monday will be near seasonal averages
in the northern counties where snow cover remains while the south
will be a bit above average thanks to bare ground.

Tuesday through Friday night will start with short wave energy
beginning a period of NW flow aloft and possibly a clipper system
before a quiet end of the week. Temperatures will be rather steady
with teens in the north to around 30 in the south for much of the
week. Best snow potential will be in the south and east with the
first short wave on Tuesday, then on Wednesday night or Thursday
across NW MN with the clipper system. The 00Z GFS maintains a more
robust and farther northeast with the clipper system than does the
00Z EC. GEFS and Canadian maintain a middle ground with respect to
placement and strength of the wave bringing snow light snow across
eastern ND and the RRV. By friday morning SFC high pressure is
expected across the northern plains to bring the coolest morning of
the week with single digits for lows probable.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 715 AM CST Sat Feb 25 2017

All sites but KDVL are VFR. Most of the cloud cover across the CWA
is in the 3000-7000 ft range but a few spots there and further
west are down to MVFR. Sat loop shows coverage is spotty to our
north and west. Will keep KDVL at MVFR for a while this morning
before some recovery to VFR this afternoon and then going back
down tonight. Will keep the rest of the sites VFR then going down
to MVFR later in the period. A few spots seeing some flurries but
no reductions to visibility yet and radar returns are not really
registering on automated sensing stations. Will have some tempo
groups for -SN this morning, with better snow chances later
tonight at KDVL and KFAR. Winds will shift around to the west then
northwest by the end of the period, mostly below 12 kts.




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