Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 261450

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
950 AM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016


Issued at 934 AM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016

Upped PoPs a bit across northwest Minnesota where rain continues
to fall this morning. Trend of slowly shifting eastward and
gradually decreasing in intensity looks to still be on track.
Additionally, fog across the far southwest forecast area
(Cooperstown-Valley City-Gwinner) still holding on but should
slowly dissipate by late morning. No other updates needed with
plenty of cloud cover still expected to keep temperatures in the
40s...maybe close to 50 in the far west if any clearing makes its
way far enough across central North Dakota.

UPDATE Issued at 659 AM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016

Pops, temps, and sky looking good so no update other than for
current conditions.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)

Issued at 314 AM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016

The main 500 mb short wave trough is moving into southwestern MN
and far northwestern Iowa and the 850 mb frontogenesis has shifted
to far SE MN into southern Wisconsin. Thus have seen a gradual
downward trend in precip in E ND and NW/WC MN. But broad upper
level trough does extend northwest to connect with the northern
stream 500 mb short wave over central Saskatchewan. The entire
system will move slowly east today. Thus look for areas of light
rain focusing in NW MN this morning and gradually ending this
aftn. In E ND...areas of fog and drizzle replacing the light rain
areas. Overall clouds today, but cool advection minimal but with
clouds temps will be cooler than on Tuesday.

Tonight will see some gradual clearing into E ND and the RRV. Will
have to watch for fog potential with light winds.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)

Issued at 314 AM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016

South winds return Thursday into early Friday ahead of next cold
front due to move through Friday morning. Precipitation will
remain generally north of the International border late Thu night
into Friday. Based on coordination with WFO BIS did up winds over
the blended guidance for Friday behind the front where 925 mb
winds of 35 kts will be seen and mixing will be sufficient to
bring that down.

Upper level features show a more zonal pattern with periods of
precipitation as a wave crosses the area later in the period.

For Saturday...model guidance remains in good agreement with placing
surface high pressure across the region with partly cloudy
conditions and light winds. By Sunday...the high pressure retreats
eastward with return flow and increasing thicknesses pointing toward
moderating temperatures. Tightening pressure gradient on Sunday will
see some gustiness associated with the south to southwest winds.

By Monday and Monday night...a wave crosses the area providing
chances for measurable precipitation. Looking at an initial round of
pcpn associated with a warm frontal boundary with wrap around
moisture in the wake of a cold front. Thickness values and 850mb
temps show rain as the main form of pcpn at this time. Tuesday the precipitation will move out of the area
and cooler conditions are expected in its wake.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)

Issued at 659 AM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016

Not the best flying day. IFR to low end MVFR cigs expected most of
the day nearly all areas. Exception to start the day is Bemidji-
Baudette area where VFR conditions still exist, they too will
lower into MVFR status during the morning as light rain moves in.
Question late this afternoon and tonight is clearing trends
eastward thru ern ND and the RRV. Confidence is low. Also some fog
threat if clearing occurs. That can be assessed later.




LONG TERM...Hopkins/Riddle
AVIATION...Riddle is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.