Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KFGF 182024
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
324 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is still some day to day fire weather concern, due to
  windy conditions, dry fuels, and low relative humidity.

- There is a 60 percent probability of minor impacts from
  snowfall across southeast North Dakota and west central
  Minnesota Thursday into Thursday evening, although wind speeds
  should not play a factor.

- The next system for the weekend into early next week could
  potentially bring warning type impacts to the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 324 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

Areas west of the Red River Valley have very little cloud cover
now, as the remnants of the clouds have shifted east of the
Valley. Wind speeds continue to be somewhat slow in rising, but
they are breezy to windy. Similarly, temperatures are also slow
to rise, but they are slowly coming up now across central North
Dakota, pushing toward the western Devils Lake region. This
slowness has resulted in fairly high humidity values yet, but
there is still a potential for a short window during the late
afternoon and early evening for near critical fire weather
conditions in portions of the FA.

A cold front will move through later tonight into Tuesday
morning, bringing gusty northwest winds throughout the day
Tuesday. Models are showing low clouds dropping southward out
of southern Manitoba as well, with some light snow or flurries
possible. Because of the low clouds, am doubting that humidity
values will drop too much Tuesday afternoon. No doubt fuels are
dry and it will be windy. Will mention the elevated fire
weather potential in the Hazardous Weather Outlook, but hold off
on adding a Special Weather Statement.

Have been watching the next system (Thursday into Thursday
evening) for a few days now. It has slowed down by about 6
hours, so it arrives a little later now, and correspondingly
lasts longer too. The NBM shows about a 90 percent probability
of 2 inches of snow across southeast North Dakota and adjacent
areas of west central Minnesota, and even a 50 percent chance of
6 inches across the tri-state border intersection. As noted in
the midnight shift discussion, WPC probabilities are a little
lower than this. The forcing is warm advection and 700mb
frontogenesis, and it could pivot in that tri-state border
intersection area, allowing for a prolonged period of higher
snowfall rates there. All said, there is still a 60 percent
probability for minor impacts with this system. The positive is
that wind speeds look to remain on the lower side, and they
will not cause greater impacts. Winds are also from a cross
Valley direction (east to west), which is rarely favorable for
high winds.

There has also been a system to watch for the weekend and into
early next week. Previous ensembles had shown this arriving as
early as Friday, but it seems like it is more delayed now too.
This has the potential to be more of a hybrid or southwest flow
event, which typically are able to tap into more moisture. This
is still a long ways out, but it has the potential of producing
warning type impacts to portions of the FA. Stay tuned for later
forecasts throughout the week for additional information.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

Expect no cloud/ceiling issues until the overnight period into
Tuesday morning, when a MVFR cloud band is expected to drop
southward into the FA from Canada. Along with this, there may be
some flurries or very light snow, but that is not worthy of
mention in the TAFs at this point. The main story until then
will be the increasing southwest winds, which will likely peak
from 20z-01z. Some of the gusts may drop off after dark, then
directions will turn to the northwest as the next cold front
moves through. Gusts will get going again after sunrise Tuesday.
The only other thing worth mentioning is the presence of a low
level jet tonight, which will result in some LLWS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Godon
AVIATION...Godon


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.