Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 312002
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
302 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Tue May 31 2016

Main forecast challenge remains dealing with the weather elements
associated with the stacked low over central ND. As of 3 pm,
seeing quite a bit of convective cloud cover east of the low, or
over most of this FA. Much more stratiform clouds behind it over
western ND. Looking at the SPC meso page, a thin ribbon of 1000
SBCAPE has developed along the Canadian border between Pembina and
Bottineau. The non supercell tornado product has been highlighting
one area around KBIS and another area northwest of KMOT. Sfc map
shows a boundary extending from the low near KMOT, northeast into
southern Manitoba, then southeast into portions of NW MN. Regional
radars show some cells from east of KHCO to near Brandon Manitoba,
which may be the area to watch this evening for funnels or weak
tornadoes. However with cold temps aloft and the presence of the
low, could get a few reports of these about anywhere in central or
eastern ND. Otherwise expect some showers/ISO storms working into
the FA from the west this evening. Most of the high resolution
guidance indicates the most activity working into east central ND,
then lift it into the northern Red River Valley late. Some of
these echoes will linger into Wed as the low progresses ENE. Best
pcpn chances Wed should be around the Lake of the Woods. This pcpn
should exit out of the FA Wed night.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Tue May 31 2016

FA should finally be free of this low pressure system by Thu with
lighter winds and a little more sun. Next sfc low moves in from
the NW Thu night and will linger into Friday.

For Fri night through Tuesday...Upper level short wave will exit
the area on Saturday with rain showers ending. Upper level trough
to hang up a bit to our east and with cold air aloft could see a
few showers over northern MN into Sunday as well. For Monday and
Tuesday generally dry weather as some upper level ridging moves
into the northern Plains. The northern edge of this upper ridge
may see some weak disturbances pass through and will have a low
chance for a few showers Mon and Tues along Canadian border.
Provided we get some sun temps should be near normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 103 PM CDT Tue May 31 2016

Tricky forecast for the next 24 hours.  IFR cigs Roseau to Bemidji
to Park Rapids to move out of the area early this afternoon as drier
air moves in.  VFR cu field over the RRV and E ND to be replaced
gradually by MVFR cigs this evening as surface low moves toward GFK.
IFR cigs psbl tonight with showers nrn RRV.  Winds will be south to
southwest into the evening and turn northwest in NE ND overnight.

&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Godon
LONG TERM...Godon/Riddle
AVIATION...Riddle



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