Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KFGF 170822
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
322 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE CONVECTIVE CHANCES THU NIGHT INTO
SAT...AND TEMPS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT...WITH NO
PREFERENCE THIS MORNING.

FOR TODAY...A BAND OF CLOUDS AND A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
FROM NORTHEAST TO SW THROUGH THE REGION. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY...WITH CLOUDS NEAR THE FRONT PROGGED TO SLOWLY THIN
THROUGH THE DAY. IF CLOUDS HOLD TOGETHER LONGER THAN
PROGGED...THEN TEMPS COULD EVEN BE COOLER IN THE NORTH. IT WILL BE
DRY WITH PERHAPS A SHOWER NEAR LAKE OF THE WOODS COUNTY THIS MORNING.

FOR TONIGHT...RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND TEMPS SHOULD FALL
INITIALLY...THEN STEADY OFF LATER TONIGHT.

ON THU...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AS MOISTURE STREAMS BACK
INTO THE REGION. IT WILL BECOME WINDY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
VALLEY...WITH 30KT TO MIX AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT.
TEMPS SHOULD ALSO WARM ABOVE NORMAL. A STRONG CAP WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST. CAN/T RULE OUT
SOME LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN THE FAR NORTH/WEST...AND
SOMETHING THAT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

FOR THU NIGHT...A BAND OF ELEVATED CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP OVER
THE WEST DURING THE EVENING AND MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT. A STRONG LLJ
AROUND 50KT AND PWATS AROUND 1.5 INCHES...AND MLCAPE AROUND 500
J/KG WITH AMPLE DEEP LAYERED SHEAR COULD LEAD TO A FEW STRONG TO
LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS AS WELL. THE CAP WILL BE STRONG INITIALLY
THOUGH...AND THIS COULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR TO OVERALL COVERAGE
OF STORMS. MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL COOL OVERNIGHT THOUGH...SO
SOMETHING WE WILL MONITOR. SPC HAS A SEE TEXT FOR THE DAY 2 JUST
BRUSHING OUR NW FA FOR THU EVENING.

ON FRIDAY...EXPECT THE MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION TO MOVE INTO THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST BY AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD BE A WARM DAY WITH WESTERLY
FLOW AND 850MB TEMPS FROM +13C NORTH TO AROUND +20C IN THE SOUTH.

FOR FRI NIGHT...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND COOL FRONT SHOULD CAUSE
DEVELOPMENT OF MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS. THERE WILL BE SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
STORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST CLOSER TO DEEPER MOISTURE.

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WILL START OFF WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND SOME LINGERING SHORT WAVE ENERGY. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. FLOW
AMPLIFIES A BIT MORE INTO MONDAY AS A WESTERN RIDGE BUILDS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER FOR MON/TUE. MAIN QUESTION MAY BE THE
DEGREE OF WARMING AS THE RIDGE APPROACHES. MODELS SHOW COOLER 850MB
TEMPS SUN/MON WITH A BIT MORE RECOVERY TUE AS RETURN FLOW GETS
GOING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

AS COOL FRONT SAGS SOUTH OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY COULD SEE SOME
MID/HIGH SCT CLOUD COVER. WITH PASSAGE OF BOUNDARY WINDS WILL BE
NNE AROUND 10KTS. THATS ABOUT IT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...GODON/DK
AVIATION...VOELKER






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.