551
FXUS63 KFGF 030222
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
922 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a level 2 out of 5 risk for severe storms for eastern
  North Dakota into northwest Minnesota late Thursday night into
  early Friday morning. Main hazards include hail to the size of
  ping pong balls and gusty winds to 60 mph.

- Additional severe storm potential (level 1 out of 5 risk)
  during the afternoon and evening on Friday the Fourth of July
  eastern North Dakota into Minnesota. Main hazards include
  hail, gusty winds, and flash flooding.

- Heat related impact potential exists Friday the Fourth of July
  as heat indices approach 100.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 918 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

Extremely quiet this evening as the radar returns and even most
of the cumulus clouds along the boundary has dissipated, having
never really taken off. Some light smoke near the Canadian
border in a few spots, so will continue mention. Some of the
model runs have some patchy fog developing in our far
southwestern counties, but best probabilities for visibilities
under a mile are to our west so will leave out for now.

UPDATE
Issued at 643 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

Had a weak shower go up just north of Fargo, but quickly
dissipated as it drew in dry mid-level air. Still some rather
beefy cumulus hanging around the weak boundary in the area so
will keep isolated POP mention with slight adjustments. However,
any activity will be very isolated and impacts limited to a
brief downpour.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 349 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

...Synopsis...

Upper ridge moving into the Northern Plains will allow
increasing low level moisture content and warmer temperatures
into the region starting today, peaking on Friday. While there
is a small chance (20%) for an isolated thunderstorm today,
lingering dry air and weak forcing for ascent will keep chances
low. Should a thunderstorm form, gusty winds to 50 mph may
occur. Cannot rule out a brief, landspout-type tornado if
thunderstorm forms on a boundary extending from the Devils Lake
basin into the Red River Valley.

Thunderstorm chances markedly increase starting late tomorrow
night as storms move out of central ND into eastern ND, and
eventually into northwest Minnesota predawn/early Friday
morning. Timing and location of thunderstorms will depend on how
the low level jet impinges upon the area. Some storms may be
severe. Main hazards will be gusty winds and hail, with wind
being more dominate hazard should storms move through as
linear/thunderstorm complex, or hail if they are more discrete.

As the upper ridge continues to shift east, a surface front also
moves east toward central/eastern ND. This will provide focus
for widespread thunderstorms to form upon potentially as early
as early afternoon. Moderate to high instability is forecast
amid weak shear, bringing chance for storms to become severe.
Hail and gusty winds will be main hazards.

Perhaps more widespread will be the flash flood potential. Rich
moisture content, high instability, and parallel flow along the
front will make for efficient and high rain rates that could
train over an area. Widespread convection starting as early as
early afternoon lasting into early evening contributes to
potential widespread chance of flash flooding, especially over
urban areas/cities/towns.

Heat impacts within the very moist air mass may occur Friday
before thunderstorms as well. Temperatures well into the 90s and
dew points well into the 70s will contribute to apparent
temperatures around 100, best chance in the Red River Valley as
well as just ahead of the front. While Friday holds greatest
chance for heat-related impacts, Thursday may see some heat-
related impacts as wet-bulb globe temperatures approach 80,
mainly south of I-94 corridor due to increasing humidity and
ample sunshine amid temperatures in the low 90s.

Saturday, the rich moisture air mass pushes east of our area,
with upper flow flattening. There will still be enough moisture
and instability to continue a low chance for scattered showers
and thunderstorms.

Upper pattern is then favored to stay either flattened/zonal or
northwesterly. This will promote near average temperatures as
well as near average to slightly below average precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 643 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

VFR conditions with a few showers going up in the KFAR area, but
are quickly dissipating before lightning can form. Have VCSH but
will monitor in the unlikely event something stronger develops.
Other airports are pretty quiet with northeast winds less than
10 kts. Winds will become light and variable at many locations
overnight, then pick up out of the southeast tomorrow with gusts
up above 20 kts possible.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
DISCUSSION...CJ
AVIATION...JR