Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 210449

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1149 PM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016


Issued at 1142 PM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016

Latest update remains on track with low clouds lingering across
southeastern ND and another area near Fosston/Bemidji areas with
higher clouds moving into the western forecast area. Temperatures
in clear areas have dropped into the upper 20s/around 30 already
at some locations but shouldn`t see much more of a drop off with
clouds moving in.


Issued at 1004 PM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016

Lower clouds across extreme southeastern ND have been creeping
back northward so adjusted sky cover accordingly. With these
clouds lingering and winds gradually increasing overnight as the
surface high continues to propagate eastward, will continue to
keep any fog mention out of the forecast. Other than that, no
changes needed with low temperatures remaining tricky with both
incoming/outgoing clouds and winds picking up.

UPDATE Issued at 638 PM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016

No changes needed other than to tweak sky cover for current
conditions. With radar echoes continuing to decrease in coverage
and intensity, will let the mention of sprinkles drop off by 02z.
Will continue to watch cloud trends for any extended period of
clearing, mainly across southeastern ND, for any fog potential
late tonight as a moist boundary layer remains in place. Will
forgo any fog mention for now but will reconsider with further
forecast updates.

UPDATE Issued at 434 PM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016

Did a quick update to add in some sprinkles across portions of
northwest Minnesota. Crookston reported drizzle this last hour
while webcams up near Warren showed some wetness on
roadways/parking lots. Echoes have diminished a bit in the last
30-60 minutes so feel comfortable going with sprinkles vs light
rain showers.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)

Issued at 256 PM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016

Main forecast challenge for tonight will be if and when the
clouds clear out. Looking at the current visible satellite
imagery, clouds are fairly thick over most of the region except
for Devils Lake and to the northwest, where clouds look more
cellular. With high pressure over our region, wind speeds are
pretty light. There are a few radar echoes north of Grand Forks,
but they are likely not reaching the surface.

Overall we are expecting decreasing clouds from west to east
tonight while more clouds begin to come in from eastern Montana.
Although there may be some clearing, it is likely there will be
more clouds than not. Lows for tonight will be dependent on how
much clearing we may get. If skies clear more than expected,
temperatures could fall a little more than forecasted. Otherwise
low temperatures should be around the low to mid 30s across the

For tomorrow, models still show some light rain showers moving
from west to east along the Canadian border. The models differ on
the timing of these showers, but overall it`s fairly insignificant
due to the light amounts. Therefore we kept the forecast
continuity with the precipitation timing.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)

Issued at 256 PM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016

The long term will be relatively quiet with a few periods of rain
showers, mainly in the middle part of next week.  For tomorrow night
and Saturday, a zonal pattern across srn MB will bring a couple of
sfc lows across the region.  A cold front will move across southern
Canada and bring a slight chance for some light rain showers across
the far north Friday (see short term discussion) and moving into wrn
Ontario Friday night.  An inverted trough associated with a low
moving across the Dakotas will then bring another chance for light
rain showers along the international border Saturday into Saturday
night.  Friday night will see the coolest temperatures before
overnight lows rise into the upper 30s to low 40s for the remainder
of the long term period.  Daytime highs will generally be in the 50s.

An amplifying ridge over the northern Rockies will ensure dry
weather and ample sunshine for Sunday and Monday.

A more SW flow pattern sets up aloft by Tuesday, with the first of
two mid-plains cyclones developing as Gulf moisture becomes more
available next Tuesday.  The best chance for precipitation will be
Tuesday night into Wednesday as warm advection showers lift into
northern Minnesota mainly Wednesday morning.  At this point, will
keep all rain showers as potential for convection decreases
significantly by late October...but an isolated is certainly
possible in central Minnesota mid next week.  Wednesday night will
be dry before the next system brings a chance for showers across the
south on Thursday.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016

VFR ceilings linger at BJI as cloud deck struggles to move east of
the area but conditions should gradually improve overnight/towards
morning. Higher clouds currently across KDVL will continue to
spread south and east throughout the period. Winds will continue
to be light and variable before becoming more southeasterly at
around 5-10 kts by Friday morning.




SHORT TERM...Godon/Bresnahan
LONG TERM...Speicher
AVIATION...Lee is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.