000
FXUS63 KFGF 011948
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
248 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE CONVECTIVE CHANCES SATURDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH THE NAM
INITIAL ZING WELL SO WILL USE.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT A DRY NIGHT WITH ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION
GETTING CLOSE TO THE FAR SW AREA...SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR. TEMPS
SHOULD FALL TO AROUND NORMAL FOR THE ENTIRE REGION.

ON SATURDAY...AN ELONGATED SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE FROM NW TO
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE A WEAK COOL FRONT
THAT WILL MOVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. THERE WILL
MUCAPE AROUND 15000 J/KG AND SOME SHEAR AROUND 30KT...SO EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE SPC HAS MENTIONED A SEE TEXT A
5% CHANCE FOR SOME SEVERE HAIL/WIND...SO SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND
TOMORROW. TEMPS SHOULD WARM AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND BE INTO THE MID
80S SOUTH AND AROUND 80 NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

FOR SUNDAY...EXPECT A MAINLY DRY DAY WITH TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGREES
COOLER THAN SATURDAY. THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM
IN THE SOUTHEAST...BUT NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH COVERAGE.

ON MONDAY...THE LATEST MODELS INDICATE CONVECTION MAY HOLD OFF
UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT. GIVEN SOME MODEL UNCERTAINTY...WILL CONTINUE
WITH SOME LOW POPS MAINLY IN THE WEST AND SOUTH. TEMPS SHOULD BE
NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST...AROUND 80 SOUTH AND MID/UPPER 70S
FAR NORTH.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...MODEL CONTINUITY IS NOT THE BEST HOWEVER
THERE CONTINUES TO BE A SIGNAL FOR MORE OF A CHANCE FOR THUNDER WITH
CONTINUED NW FLOW ALOFT. INSTABILITY AXIS SETS UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL
DAKOTAS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE PCPN TO THE
WEST WHEREAS THE GFS BRINGS IT INTO THE SW FA. THAT TREND CONTINUES
FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK WITH THE ECMWF OVERALL VERY DRY AND GFS
WETTER. THE 12Z GEM ALSO SHOWS PCPN TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT TUESDAY. TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON CLOUDS EARLY IN THE PERIOD BUT
EXPECTING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

GROSSLY UNREMARKABLE...VFR.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...JK/DK
AVIATION...JK