000
FXUS63 KFGF 260547
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1147 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

LAST PATCH OF FAST MOVING PRECIP MOVING INTO SE ND ATTM. PRODUCING
A FEW SPRINKLES AND FARGO CAME NR 05Z WITH A FEW FLAKES. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL MOVE OUT OF THE FCST AREA NEXT FEW HOURS. VERY
DIFFICULT TO GET HANDLE ON HOW MUCH WAS REACHING THE GROUND...BUT
BASED ON OBS AND DBZ ON RADAR SOME PRETTY VICIOUS VIRGA WAS
OCCURRING TONIGHT. IF DRY LAYER NR 850 MB WASNT THERE A WHOLE
DIFFERENT STORY. LIGHT SNOW IN LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION CONTINUES
BUT CANADIAN RADAR AND OBS INDICATE MOST OF IT WILL EXIT EAST
LATER TONGHT AND SNOW AMOUNTS LESS. LOWERED TO UP TO 1 INCH
BAUDETTE AREA. TEMP SURGE IS ON AND EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE TO ABOVE
FREEZING OVER ERN ND AND THE RRV AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...ALREADY
THAT WAY IN DVL BASIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE LIGHT PRECIP TONIGHT THEN TEMPS. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT...WITH JUST SOME SLIGHT TIMING
DIFFERENCES.

FOR TONIGHT...ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE MID LEVELS AND A SPEED MAX
WILL MOVE IN FAST NW FLOW ALOFT. THERE WILL BE A BAND OF LIGHT
SNOW IN THE FAR NORTHEAST FA...WHERE UP TO AN INCH IS POSSIBLE.
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST...SOME FREEZING RAIN OR A MIX OF
FREEZING RAIN/SNOW IS POSSIBLE. WE HAVE INTRODUCED POPS FOR THIS
AND MENTIONED IN THE UPDATED WEATHER STORY. WE WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THIS THREAT FOR ICING OVERNIGHT...EVEN WITH TEMPS RISING
TO NEAR FREEZING LATE WITH INCREASING S/SW WINDS SHIFTING WEST LATE.

ON MONDAY...SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN NW MN DURING
THE MORNING...OTHERWISE EXPECT A MILD AND DRY DAY WITH W/NW WINDS
INCREASING INTO THE BREEZY CATEGORY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

ON TUE...EXPECT ANOTHER MILD AND DRY DAY WITH THE WARM WEATHER
CONTINUING. TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB TO AROUND 40 WEST INTO THE MID 30S
ELSEWHERE. IF THERE IS MORE INSOLATION THAN CURRENTLY
PROGGED...TEMPS COULD BE EVEN WARMER.

ON WED...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE
DAY. THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME LIGHT SNOW IN THE NORTHER
AREAS. WE CAN/T RULE OUT SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE GIVEN THE WARM
ENVIRONMENT...BUT FOR NOW WON/T MENTION BUT MONITOR THREAT. IT
WILL BE MILD WITH TEMPS FALLING IN THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT
IN NORTHERN AREAS.

FOR WED NIGHT THROUGH SAT...THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED WILL
START OUT WARM WITH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT
SNOW WED NIGHT BEHIND A COOL FRONT...THEN AGAIN TOWARDS THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT IS PROGGED BY NEXT
SAT...THAT COULD MEAN AN END TO THE MILD TEMPS WE HAVE SEEN
RECENTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

MODEL MOS GUIDANCE FOR CIGS HAVE BEEN WAY TOO PESSIMISTIC. THEY
HOLD EVERYONE IN MVFR CIGS ALL NIGHT. THAT IS NOT THE CASE. MOST
AREAS HAVE SEEN LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS EXIT AS DRY LOW LEVEL AIR MOVES
IN. LEAVING SOME MID CLOUDS....EXCEPT FOR FAR NE FCST AREA.
SATELLITE SHOWS A LARGE CLEAR AREA IN SW MANITOBA MOVING INTO
NCNTRL ND AND THIS WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST AS WELL. THUS KEPT MOST
SITES VFR OVERNIGHT OR BECOMING THAT WAY. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST GUSTY AT TIMES TO 20-25KTS. MONDAY IS QUITE UNCERTAIN
HOW CLOUDS WILL TREND. MVFR CIGS BEHIND THE LOW IN WEST CENTRAL
MANITOBA UP NORTH OF DAUPHIN AND I THINK RAP MODEL HAS GOOD IDEA
OF THAT MOVING SOUTH INTO MUCH OF THE FCST AREA DURING THE DAY
MONDAY SO TRENDED IN THAT DIRECTION AS SFC WINDS TURN NORTHWEST.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...GODON/DK
AVIATION...RIDDLE