Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KFGF 251148
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
648 AM CDT MON APR 25 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT MON APR 25 2016

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO ONGOING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT MON APR 25 2016

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES AND
TEMPERATURES. MODELS OVERALL CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT.

CURRENTLY MOST CONCENTRATED AREA OF RA IS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA
WITH MORE SPOTTY PCPN FARTHER NORTH. STACKED LOW TO PROPAGATE
ACROSS SOUTHERN MN TODAY. AS IT DOES STRONGEST ISENTROPIC LIFT
SHIFTS INTO NORTHERN MN AND MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING HIGHEST RAIN
AMOUNTS SHIFT INTO THIS AREA. ELSEWHERE RAIN WILL CONTINUE OFF AND
ON FOR HIGH POPS BUT RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHTER. WILL CONTINUE
WITH HIGH POPS MOST OF THE REGION. MINIMAL THERMAL RECOVERY
EXPECTED WITH MOST AREAS SEEING HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S.

AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST TONIGHT PCPN SHOULD BECOME LESS
WIDESPREAD WITH ONLY MINOR ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS. COLUMN
COOLS HOWEVER WITH CLOUDS MINIMUMS WILL RANGE IN THE 30S ABOVE THE
FREEZING MARK.

RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE FA TUESDAY AND ANY LINGERING SHRA SHOULD
GRADUALLY END. GRADUAL DRYING THROUGH THE COLUMN FROM NE TO SW
HOWEVER ANY SOLAR POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED TO THE NE. WILL SEE
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES BUT STILL BELOW AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT
MON APR 25 2016

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES WITH NEXT UPPER LOW TO TRACK
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THIS TIME BEST RAIN POTENTIAL WITH
THIS NEXT LOW WILL BE LIMITED TO THE FAR S-SW FA. TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN BLO AVERAGE.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE OPENING AND LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
AREA ON THURSDAY. RAINFALL WILL LIKELY BE PRIMARILY IN THE SOUTH
EARLY IN THE DAY. IT LOOKS LIKE WE COULD SEE MORE SUN AND WARMER
TEMPS IN THE NORTH DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE UPPER
WAVE. THE OVERALL PATTERN FAVORS UPPER LEVEL LOWS OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES. ND/MN
WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN END OF THESE LOWS AND IT LOOKS LIKE WE`LL
SEE ONE ON THURSDAY AND ANOTHER OVER THE WEEKEND. RIGHT NOW THE
WEEKEND UPPER LOW LOOKS TO STAY TO THE SOUTH...OR PERHAPS CLIP THE
FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT MON APR 25 2016

CIGS WILL BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOST SITES
EXCEPT FOR MOST NORTHERN TVF MVFR/IFR. MOST GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT
IN LOWERING CIGS ABOUT A CATEGORY ACROSS THE FA DURING THE DAY.
THAT WOULD KEEP SITES AT MVFR/IFR THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. ONLY
ISOLD MVFR VSBY EXPECTED WITH MOST AREAS P6SM OR CLOSE TO.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...KNUTSVIG/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.