Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 241742

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1242 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016

Issued at 1236 PM CDT Sun Jul 24 2016

Made a few minor tweaks to POPs, as much of the cumulus seems to
be forming over the northeastern CWA and think any showers will be
mostly from the northern RRV eastward. Otherwise no major changes.

UPDATE Issued at 926 AM CDT Sun Jul 24 2016

Bumped up winds a bit in the northwestern counties for this
afternoon as we should get good mixing and speeds are already
around 15 kts. Will continue to keep some POPs in the north for
this afternoon as high res models have a fair amount of
development as a weak shortwave moves into the area.

UPDATE Issued at 700 AM CDT Sun Jul 24 2016

No changes at this update.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tuesday night)
Issued at 354 AM CDT Sun Jul 24 2016

A cold front was over the far eastern zones and will move out of the
area this morning. Some wrap around moisture is expected this
afternoon/evening over the northern zones. Enough cooling occurs
aloft today that the atmosphere becomes unstable this
afternoon/evening. Convective temps are in the mid/upper 70s in the
north with 1500+ j/kg of mucape. Also the water vapor loop indicated
a weak upper trough over southern ALTA moving southeast. Northwest
flow aloft is expected for Sun night.

Similar event expected for Mon afternoon/evening with similar
mucapes of 1500 j/kg however may not reach convective temps. Will
keep low pops for Mon afternoon/evening.

Upper level trough over the northern BC coast will move across
central Canada Mon night and will send a cold front into the
northern Red River Valley Tue night. Concurrently increasing low
level moisture will make for more unstable mucapes (2500 j/kg) on
Tue afternoon/evening.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 354 AM CDT Sun Jul 24 2016

The majority of the long term period will be under a NW flow pattern
aloft that brings low POPs for middle and latter half of the
week...before a SW ridge sets up on Sunday and provides a break to
the active pattern.  Temperatures will generally be in the upper 70s
for the second half of the work week and increase into the 80s for
the weekend.  The long wave pattern changes to a SW flow pattern for
next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Sun Jul 24 2016

Cumulus clouds have started to develop over northwestern MN,
mostly VFR at the base but a few are down to MVFR, including at
KTVF. Have KTVF at MVFR predominately with a tempo VFR group for
some breaks that are common with cumulus. Have KGFK and KBJI also
going BKN for a while but kept it VFR for now. Showers and
thunderstorms are possible, but at this point think it will be
mostly north of the TAF sites so will leave out VCTS for now.
Cumulus will dissipate with the sunshine and all sites will be VFR
after 00Z. Breezy northwesterly winds with gusts above 20 kts at
times will continue through this afternoon, then settle down after
sunset. Light west winds overnight.


.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


LONG TERM...Speicher
AVIATION...JR is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.