Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 200901
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
401 AM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 401 AM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017

The storm complex from overnight has shifted well east of the FA
now, with just a few light showers around. Still have a fair
amount of cloud cover remaining, but there are a few clear spots.
In one of these clear spots around Detroit Lakes MN, winds have
also gone light, leading to some fog formation. Do not think the
winds will remain light very long, as they are shifting west and
increasing. So will not mention fog anywhere this morning. The
clouds should decrease slowly from west to east, with quite a bit
more sun today. There will be some fairly cold 500mb temps today,
especially in the Devils Lake region and northern Red River
Valley. With some sun and heating today, some of the models are
showing some light showers developing along the Canadian border in
this cold pool. Not confident in this occurring, so left it out
for now. Tonight, despite fairly clear skies initially, winds will
stay pretty constant from the south, which should prevent much
fog formation. Will have to see what later model runs show for
this.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 401 AM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017

Southwest 500mb flow continues on Thursday, with a sfc boundary
moving into the Devils Lake region/northeast ND. This will be a
focus area for some shower development, but overall it would be
pretty minor. SPC has placed most of the FA along and east of the
Red River Valley in a marginal risk for severe weather Thu night.
At this point, a strong low level jet and warm advection look to
be the primary forcing mechanisms. There should be somewhat of a
downturn in activity through Fri morning, before there is another
chance for severe weather Friday afternoon into the evening. This
time around, the surface boundary looks to set up somewhere from
northeast SD up into north central MN. Best thunder and severe
weather chances will be along this corridor. Models not in the
best of agreement on where and how much activity will develop, but
this is still a ways off yet. Would expect this activity to shift
more into MN by Fri night.

For Saturday through Tuesday...Long wave trough remains over
western North America and weakens. High amplitude pattern de-
amplifies and becomes more split with main flow across southern
Canada. Longwave ridge over eastern North America also weakens
through the period.

The GFS was a faster solution than the ECMWF. Will blend the
models.

High temperatures were generally increased a degree or two for Sat
and increased two to three degrees for Sun. Little change was made
to Mon and Tue from yesterdays forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1151 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017

The line of thunderstorms has yet to move through KBJI, otherwise
only KDVL is pretty much out of it now. KTVF/KFAR/KGFK are still
dealing with more showery pcpn, either on station or in the
vicinity. For these 3 sites, the showery pcpn will probably last
for a few more hours yet. Otherwise winds are all over the place
as far as directions and speeds. Speeds have gone light in the Red
River Valley and at KTVF, and will continue that way for a while
yet before increasing again. Ceilings outside of the main line of
storms have generally been in the VFR range.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Godon
LONG TERM...Godon/JH
AVIATION...Godon



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