Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 231746
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1246 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THERE ARE STILL A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF BENSON COUNTY
BUT THEY APPEAR TO BE DECREASING IN COVERAGE. THEREFORE WILL NOT
EXTEND THE MENTION OF SHOWERS ANY LONGER BUT WILL MONITOR. THE
THICKER CLOUDS ACROSS THE KDVL REGION HAVE HELD TEMPS DOWN A BIT
SO WILL LOWER HIGHS THERE A FEW DEGREES TOO. REST OF FORECAST IN
GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THERE WILL BE A BATTLE BETWEEN THE DRY SURFACE HIGH AND SHORTWAVES
RIDING OVER THE UPPER RIDGE AND INTO THIS REGION. 00Z MODELS IN
DECENT AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLEND FOR DETAILS. MOST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS TODAY WILL BE DRY...WITH ISOLD/SCATTERED SHOWERS ON
THURSDAY. INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN VERY WEAK...LIMITING THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS. TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL VALUES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...A STRONG UPPER LOW PROPAGATING
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BE JUST NORTH OF MONTANA BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL
INCREASE MOISTURE AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY. A SFC TROUGH WILL
PROPAGATE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD...ALONG WITH PRECIP
CHANCES. THE BEST THUNDER POTENTIAL WILL BE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING DURING PEAK HEATING. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL FORCING
WILL BE WEAK...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL
EXIST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS (ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE QUITE
ISOLD).

AND NOW FOR ROGERS LAST DISCUSSION AT FGF...

SATURDAY-TUESDAY...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MEDIUM-RANGE
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING EASTERN PACIFIC SHORT-WAVE
TRAVERSING THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
AND THEN BEING INGESTED INTO LARGER HUDSON BAY LOW ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SKIRTS THE NORTHWEST ANGLE BEFORE
DIVING INTO THE MN ARROWHEAD. MAJORITY OF PRECIP REMAINS TO THE
NORTH OF THE LOW UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN ITS COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WILL KEEP ALL BLEND CHANCE POPS SAT/SAT
NIGHT WITH DRYING FROM WEST TO EAST ON SUNDAY. MON/TUES LOOK
MOSTLY DRY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
EXPECT LITTLE DAY TO DAY VARIATION IN TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID-50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

SOME CELLULAR CU FORMING JUST EAST OF FORECAST AREA...BELIEVE
SCATTERED VFR DECK LIKELY TO FORM VCNTY KBJI THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS...TRENDING SE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...BEFORE
INCREASING ABV 10KT LATER IN TAF PERIOD THURSDAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/ROGERS
AVIATION...WJB






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