Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 271800
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
100 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON.
LIGHT RAIN OCCURRING ACROSS GRANT COUNTY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
TO THE NORTH...AND THE MAIN BAND OF PRECIP JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION. LEFT EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET WILL SPREAD SYNOPTIC
FORCING TO MOST AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE VALLEY BY THIS
EVENING...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS SEEM THE BEST BET (STILL DRY IN
THE LOWER LEVELS).

UPPER LOW ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE OVER THE RED
RIVER VALLEY BY 06Z. THIS WILL PLACE THE STRONGEST FORCING ACROSS
NW MINNESOTA...AND EASTWARD THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA. MOST
GUIDANCE INDICATES RAIN WILL OCCUR HERE...AND RAISED POPS FOR
TONIGHT. HEAVIEST QPF WILL BE EAST OF THIS FA...BUT GENERALLY
COULD SEE 0.10 TO 0.40 INCHES. KEPT THE ISOLD-SCATTERED POPS
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WITHIN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
REGIME TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH FORCING WEAKENS AND DO NOT ANTICIPATE TOO
MUCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

A BIT MORE COMPLEX FCST THIS GO AROUND. ONE 500 MB LOW IN WEST
CENTRAL MANITOBA WITH ANOTHER IN NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA. THE TWO
WILL GENERALLY COMBINE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS OVER NORTHERN
ND/SRN MANITOBA AND MOVE INTO NRN MN 12Z TUESDAY. CANADIAN
RADARS/OBS SHOW AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WITH BOTH UPPER SYSTEMS AND
FCST AREA IN DRY SLOT WITH A GENERALLY CLEAR SKY TO START THE DAY.
THERE IS A SHORT WAVE OVER EASTERN WYOMING AND THIS WILL MOVE EAST
AND THEN NORTHEAST EAST OF THE BROAD 500 MB LOW AND BRING A BAND
OF RAIN SHOWERS FROM CENTRAL INTO NORTHEASTERN SD TODAY AND THEN
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN FCST AREA (MAINLY SOUTH OF A BDE-FAR LINE)
MID AFTN INTO EVENING. AS THIS SHORT WAVE MOVES UP INTO NORTH
CENTRAL MINNESOTA THIS EVENING COLD ADVECTION AT 925-850 MB WILL
INCREASE AS SFC WINDS TURN NORTHWEST AND EXPECT AN EXPANSIVE AREA
OF STRATOCU TO MOVE OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING AND LINGER INTO
TUESDAY. UNDERNEATH THIS DECK WILL BE PATCHES OF LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE WITH BEST CHC IN NRN FCST AREA. 925 MB-SFC TEMPS
APPROACHING 0C IN DVL BASIN MAY LEAD TO A RA/SN MIX LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BUT AMOUNT OF PRECIP OCCURRING WILL BE
QUITE LIGHT. BREEZY CHILLY TUESDAY WITH HIGHS BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
FIRST TIME IN A LONG WHILE WITH TEMPS UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
DURING THE DAY WITH A NORTHWEST WIND 15-25 KTS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

UPPER LOW AND ANY LIGHT PRECIP TO EXIT AREA TUESDAY EVENING WITH
GRADUAL CLEARING FROM THE WEST. NEXT SHORT WAVE TO MOVE THRU WED
AFTN BUT APPEARS MOISTURE IS MORE MID LEVEL AND WITH SFC DEW PTS
IN THE 20S NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY PRECIP.

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WILL STILL BE DEALING WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ON THU. MAIN EFFECTS MAY BE NORTH-NW WINDS THAT COULD BE A
LITTLE BREEZY. 500MB RIDGE THEN BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR
FRI/SAT WITH SFC HIGH OVERHEAD ON FRI AND THEN BREEZY SOUTHEAST
WINDS SAT. MORE QUESTIONS REMAIN FOR SUNDAY WITH BOTH THE 00Z
OPERATIONAL ECMWF/GFS RUNS SHOWING A LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
ECMWF KEEPS SUNDAY DRY WITH THE MAIN PCPN EFFECTS COMING MORE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AT THIS POINT THE GFS IS A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH
INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA WITH THE LOW KEEPING MORE OF THE PCPN SHIELD
THERE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. SFC LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST
TONIGHT...WITH WINDS AHEAD MAINLY FROM 10 TO 15 KTS. EXPECT WINDS
TO BECOME STRONGER FROM THE NW...WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE AFT
THE 14-15Z TIME FRAME. OTHERWISE...EXPECT WRAP AROUND MOISTURE TO
LOWER CIGS INTO MVFR TERRITORY AFT 06Z IN THE DVL BASIN...AND
SHIFTING E THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. CONFIDENCE LOW OF ANY
PCPN AFT 09Z SO WILL WAIT ON ANY MENTION ATTM.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...HOPKINS




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