Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 141805

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
105 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

Issued at 105 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

The main area of light rain has filled back in over southeast
North Dakota, with a little finger extending northeast toward
Bemidji. Expect to see a little more filling in across west
central Minnesota, and most of this activity will stay south of
the highway 200 corridor. There is also a thin finger of light
rain over the northern Red River Valley, near Grafton. This may
start to diminish in the next hour or so, but will keep an eye on
it. Overall rainfall amounts so far have been minimal.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 357 AM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

Impacts expected to remain very minimal with the system today.
Rain chances and amounts the main concerns. 00z guidance has
trended slightly slower, south, and weaker compared to previous
model runs...and all models in decent agreement. Strongest forcing
will likely remain near and south of the ND/SD border (water
vapor imagery indicates upper level trough/circulation over Idaho
(09z), propagating eastward). Advection of the colder airmass will
be delayed until after the precip comes to an end, and do not
expect any snowflakes.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 357 AM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

Sunday will mark the beginning of a dry and warm week ahead.
Southerly winds Sunday morning will shift to west/northwesterly
winds by afternoon with the passage of a weak surface trough. As the
main upper level trough progresses eastward Sunday large scale
subsidence is expected across the area, giving way to clearing
skies from west to east throughout the day. Afternoon highs will
remain cool reaching into the mid 50s for eastern North Dakota and
into the upper 40s for western/northwestern Minnesota.

Long term guidance is in relatively good agreement for a warm and
dry period over the upcoming week. A cool start to Monday morning
will see temperatures quickly warm into the low 60s across the
region. By mid week temperatures should level out in the mid to
upper 60s with overnight lows dropping to the mid to upper 40s. Weak
surface troughs/cold fronts are expected to move through the region
Monday and Wednesday, but with a lack of appreciable moisture and
weak, zonal flow aloft no precipitation is expected. However, windy
conditions are possible behind these fronts with northwesterly winds
at 10 to 15 mph.

The next chance for rain will likely not be until the end of the
week and into the weekend. By Friday, stronger southerly return flow
under upper level ridging is expected to allow sufficient moisture
to the region for rain chances on Saturday with the approach of a
cold front.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 105 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

Cloud layers moving through are all VFR and do not anticipate any
lowering for the next 24 hours. Wind speeds also look to remain on
the lower end. Any pcpn looks to be restricted to the KFAR and
KBJI TAF sites.




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