Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KFGF 251442
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
942 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 942 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST...AND CURRENT OBSERVATIONS ARE IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING. NO CHANGES ARE REQUIRED FOR TODAY...ENJOY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A QUICK SHOT OF COLD ADVECTION OVERNIGHT BEHIND SHORT WAVE...BUT
THIS BECOMES MORE NEUTRAL BY MIDDAY WITH WARMING TAKING PLACE AT
850 MB IN ERN ND THIS AFTN. MAIN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO REMAIN
WEST OF THE FCST AREA TODAY MOVING OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING AND
THEN EAST SUNDAY. WITH THE HIGH TO OUR WEST LOOK FOR A WEST-
NORTHWEST WIND 10-15 KT RANGE. THERE IS A RIBBON OF MID AND HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE THAT MODELS ARENT HAVING THE BEST TIME DEPICTING
FROM GLASGOW MT INTO FAR SOUTH CENTRAL ND/NE SD. THIS IS EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE SOMEWHAT THIS MORNING SO SHOULD SEE A GOOD DEAL OF
SUN ALL AREAS TODAY. WITH COLD ADVECTION WEAKENING TODAY AND A
FAVORABLE WEST WIND DID UP TEMPS A TAD IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY
WITH 60-65 REASONABLE...WITH 55-60 EITHER SIDE OF THE VALLEY.
COOLEST TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE EASTERN FCST AREA WHILE RETURN FLOW
SETS UP IN ERN ND. SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE A BIT ON SUNDAY AS 850
MB WARM ADVECTION OCCURS. SOME WEAK LIFT AND DECENT 850 MB THETA-E
ADVECTION INTO THE RRV/NW MN SUN AFTN-EVE SHOULD BRING A LOW RISK
OF A FEW SHOWERS. SPC KEEPS ANY RISK OF THUNDER MORE OVER NRN MN
SO MOVED THUNDER THREAT A BIT EAST BASED ON MODEL PROGGED 850 MB
SHOWWALTERS SUN AFTN-EVE. BUT OVERALL THE INSTABILITY AT 850 MB IS
PRETTY WEAK WITH FOCUS MORE SO IN ERN MN/WISCONSIN 00Z-06Z MON.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

AS THREAT FOR THUNDER SHIFTS EAST...KEPT A LOW RISK FOR A FEW
SHOWERS IN NORTHEASTERN-EASTERN FCST AREA THRU 06Z MON BEFORE
DRYING IT OUT. VERY MINOR EVENT REGARDLESS. AFTER THIS...A PRETTY
POTENT 500 MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE MONTANA/SASK
BORDER AT 06Z MON TO NEAR GRAND FORKS BY 06Z TUES. WEAK SURFACE
LOW ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER SYSTEM STAYS JUST NORTH OF THE INTL
BORDER. MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM IS QUITE WEAK AND THUS
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WEAK AS WELL. WILL MAINTAIN THE LOW POPS
FOR SHOWERS MAINLY MONDAY AFTN-NIGHT WITH BEST CHC IN THE COLD
ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC/UPPER LOW. AMOUNTS ONCE AGAIN
QUITE LOW. BUT DEFINITELY A BRISK AND COOLER MON NIGHT.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
LONG WAVE PATTERN HAD A ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTH
AMERICA AND AMPLIFIES A BIT THROUGH THE PERIOD. FLAT RIDGE BUILDS
SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE PERIOD OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA. THE
DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AT 84
HOURS. HOWEVER THE GFS BECOMES PROGRESSIVELY FASTER THROUGH DAY 8
THAN THE ECMWF. MODELS AMPLIFY THE PATTERN BY FRI. WILL PREFER THE
SLOWER ECMWF.

LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPS ON TUE. WED AND THU TEMPS DECREASED A DEGREE
OR SO. ON FRI TEMPS DECREASED ONE TO FOUR DEGREES FROM YESTERDAYS
PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 744 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND WILL INCREASE MID MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON AVERAGING 10 TO 20 KTS OVER THE AREA...A TAD STRONGER
WIND GUSTS PSBL IN THE NRN RRV. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN WILL ALLOW
WINDS TO DIMINISH QUICKLY NEAR SUNSET AND THEN TURN LIGHT
SOUTHERLY LATE TONIGHT. BAND OF MID CLOUDS NR WILLISTON TO
WAHPETON THINNING OUT SOME TODAY WITH CIRRUS THINNING OUT TOO.
THIS LEAVES THE TAF SITES GENERALLY CLEAR TODAY-TONIGHT. I THREW
IN SCT250 TO ACCOUNT FOR LONELY CIRRUS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...HOPPES/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.