Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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627
FXUS63 KFGF 101534
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
934 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 929 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

SNOW INTENSITIES STARTING TO DIMINISH WITH VSBYS IMPROVING ACROSS
THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND CENTRAL VALLEY AS STRONGEST RADAR
RETURNS ARE NOW IN SOUTHEASTERN ND. MINIMAL CHANGES NEEDED FOR
THE UPDATE WITH A TWEAK TO THE POPS COVERAGE TO MATCH CURRENT
TRENDS. ENDING TIME FOR THE ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS IS ON TRACK WITH -SN LINGERING ACROSS E ND INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

SNOW AMOUNTS TODAY AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE THE
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR THE SHORT TERM.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES WITH THE RAP ANALYSIS SHOWING A 150
KT JET STREAK DIGGING INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY. SNOW HAS BEEN
FALLING SINCE BEFORE 06Z IN OUR WESTERN CWA...WITH AUTOMATED SITES
SHOWING AROUND 0.06 TO 0.08 INCHES OF LIQUID SO FAR. THE SNOW BAND
LINES UP WELL WITH THE UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM THE JET AS WELL AS
700MB FRONTOGENESIS SEEN ON SPC MESO PAGE. VIS HAS BEEN MOSTLY IN
THE 2 TO 5SM RANGE ALTHOUGH A FEW SITES HAVE BEEN DOWN TO 1SM AT
TIMES. THE MODELS HAVE FRONTOGENESIS CONTINUING UNTIL AROUND 18Z
TODAY...SO THINK WE SHOULD HAVE PRETTY DECENT BAND OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES. SOME OF THE RECENT RUNS HAVE BEEN
BACKING OFF ON QPF...BUT WILL KEEP THE 3 INCHES ACROSS THE WEST
FOR NOW AND SEE HOW THINGS ARE AT 12Z. DID CUT THE AMOUNTS IN RED
RIVER VALLEY WHICH WILL BE ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP
BAND.

TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...WITH HIGHEST READINGS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES AND
COLDER TEMPS EVEN WITH MORE SUN IN THE NORTHEAST WHICH WILL START
OUT WELL BELOW ZERO THIS MORNING. CLOUDS WILL HAVE A LARGE IMPACT
ON TEMPS TONIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE COMING DOWN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL START MOVING INTO WESTERN ND...SO OUR WEST SHOULD BE
CLOUDY EVEN AS THE PRECIP STAYS OUT OF THE CWA. THE NORTHEAST WILL
AGAIN HAVE VERY LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...SO GETTING
DOWN INTO THE 10 TO 15 BELOW RANGE WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE. THE
CLOUDY WEST AND MORE SUNNY EAST SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY WITH
HIGHS AGAIN SHOWING A DECENT GRADIENT OF SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW 20S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES BY LATE
FRIDAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO DIG DOWN THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRENDING A BIT FURTHER WEST WITH THIS SYSTEM. WILL KEEP SOME LOW
POPS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES BUT THINK IMPACTS WILL BE
MINIMAL. OF GREATER NOTE IS A SURGE OF COLDER AIR COMING DOWN
DURING THE PERIOD. THE MORE THAN 1040MB HIGH DIGGING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL HELP HIGHS ON FRIDAY BE A GOOD 10 DEGREES
COLDER THAN THURSDAY. DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER...MUCH OF THE CWA
WILL DROP INTO THE 10 TO 20 BELOW RANGE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS...AND SOME SPOTS IN THE EAST COULD BE EVEN COLDER.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AND IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THIS RUN. NW FLOW
ALOFT WILL PERSIST THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH A FEW WAVES
CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA. FOR SATURDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE
RETREATS WITH RETURN FLOW AND WARMER TEMPS SPREADING ACROSS THE
REGION. A WAVE PROGRESSES EAST ON SATURDAY EVENING BRINGING ANOTHER
ROUND OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. AFTER A SLIGHT COOL DOWN BEHIND
THE SYSTEM...ANOTHER WAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD...WITH MORE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REBOUND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 657 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT KDVL WHICH IS
STILL 1SM WITH CIGS IN THE 9000-1300 FT RANGE. THINK THAT
CONDITIONS SHOULD START TO IMPROVE AT KDVL IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AS THE SNOW BAND MOVES OFF. KGFK AND KFAR HAVE BEEN REPORTING SOME
FLURRIES AND HAVE VIS IN THE 5-6SM RANGE ALTHOUGH CIGS ARE STILL
IN THE VFR RANGE. EXPECT THE LOWERED VIS TO NOT LAST VERY LONG AS
THE SNOW BAND WILL BE SOUTH OF KGFK BY MID MORNING AND KFAR BY
18Z. SOME MVFR CIGS MAY HANG AROUND KDVL BUT OTHER SITES SHOULD BE
VFR FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST
SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 10 KTS EARLY IN THE PERIOD BUT BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE BY THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPKINS
AVIATION...JR



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