Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 220842

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
342 AM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 342 AM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

Observations indicating lowering visibilities east of the valley
within the surface trough (clear sky and calm wind). Will mention
patchy fog through into the early morning hours...and monitor.

Main concern this period will be the potential for a narrow band
of heavier rainfall near the international border tonight. Water
vapor imagery indicates a strong upper level wave across the Pac
NW conus that will spread synoptic forcing into the region after
00z. This forcing will be coincident with strong mid-level
frontogensis and potential conditional instability
(Epv<0)...leading to the potential for a narrow band of heavier
rainfall. Incoming model hi-res model guidance suggests the
location of the narrow heavier band will be north of the
International border...although synoptic models such as the ECMWF
and GFS are further south. Think that areas near the International
border will at least get light rainfall (and when with 60%-70%
PoPs)...but will await greater confidence in location before
raising QPF (if needed). For now...message will be that most
locations near the International border will receive under 0.25
inch of rainfall...with a low potential for heavier amounts (up
to 0.75 inches).

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 342 AM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

Sunday-Monday...Mostly quiet weather although could be lingering
showers across northwest Minnesota Sunday morning.
Otherwise...ridging builds into the region which should lead to a
couple low wind days with max temps in the 50s. Ideal radiational
cooling conditions Sunday night will lead to temps at least near
freezing...with the potential for colder temps if conditions set
up just right.

Tuesday-Friday...Model guidance continues to show one upper level
shortwave trough and surface low moving from the central plains into
the MS Valley Tue-Wed while another upper wave moves across southern
Canada. The degree of interaction between these waves will impact
precip amounts over our area with current guidance generally
indicating a good chunk of our area in between systems, although
ensemble guidance does show quite a bit of spread in QPF amounts. It
would appear the best chances for meaningful rain would be across
the south closer to the stronger wave/surface low, though. Models
differ in handling the interaction of the upper waves late week as
they pass east of the region, likely leading to differences in the
synoptic flow pattern, which may affect temps, but impactful weather
currently appears unlikely with temps ave to above ave.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1151 PM CDT Fri Oct 21 2016

VFR conditions continue across the CWA. A few sites in the
northern forecast area have low dew point depressions, but further
south it is fairly dry. Winds are from the west to southwest
across the ND side and this will shift into the MN side later
tonight as the surface trough moves east. The winds will diminish
towards morning and become light and variable. Some high res
models still put out fog east of the Red River, but the MOS
guidance keeps lower vis out. Given the west winds will keep fog
out of the TAF sites. Higher mid level clouds will move in later
in the period.




LONG TERM...TG/Makowski
AVIATION...JR is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.