Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 231145

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
645 AM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

Issued at 645 AM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

Winds appear to be coming in a little faster than expected, as
well as the next batch of sprinkles or very light rain. Locations
in and west of the Red River Valley are already getting sustained
winds at 20 to 25 mph with gusts to 35 mph. Think these winds will
increase a little more yet, then remain steady or even decrease a
little in some areas through the afternoon. Canadian radars and
observations not looking overly impressive, but there are echoes
moving into the Devils Lake region and northern Red River Valley
now, which will slide southeast through the morning. Backed off a
little on pcpn chances, thinking it will be a pretty minimal


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 328 AM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

Wind and showers will remain the main forecast challenges for the
short term. It looks like there will be two rounds of showers,
both fairly light. The first is moving through now, but it has
mainly shifted east of the Red River Valley, and has been
producing rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch. High
resolution model guidance pushes most of this current activity out
of the eastern FA by sunrise. Meanwhile, another band of light
showers over southwest Manitoba is expected to drop southeast
into the Devils Lake region around sunrise, and will track
southeast thru the FA during the morning hours. Again, any pcpn
amounts with this second batch of light rain will stay under a
tenth of an inch.

Next challenge is wind speeds today. The surface low over southern
Manitoba will move toward western Lake Superior by noon, setting
up a tight pressure gradient over the FA. 925mb winds look
strongest this morning, in the 30 to 35 knot range, in the 09z to
15z time frame. Thereafter they actually decrease a bit, more
into the 25 to 30 knot range. The strongest cold advection also
matches up with the strongest 925mb winds, ending around 15z too.
After 15z the cold advection is not as strong. For that reason,
will stick with the previously issued wind advisory covering just
the southwest FA and not expand the area any further at this
point. It does appear there will be a second push of cold
advection by very late afternoon into the evening. Wind speeds may
ramp up again, but late afternoon and evening are tougher times
to mix down the full brunt of the winds. For now, increased wind
speeds to just below wind advisory criteria tonight, but they
could be close.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 328 AM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

Impacts in the extended time period will center in on potent wave
plunging into the northern plains from the north Wednesday night
into Thursday. This system is setting up to be the first snow maker
of the season for at least some of the northern plains. Placement
will continue to be refined in future forecasts.

A cool Tuesday is in store with highs in the 40s to low 50s in the
west as a high pressure ridge axis crosses the region. Warm air
advection ahead of the the aforementioned system will help temps
reach into the 50s and low 60s Wednesday afternoon.
Overnight Wednesday developing SFC low will track southeast across
the area and in its wake 925mb temps will fall below freezing as
such there is a chance for some rain or snow across the northern
half of the area Thursday morning. With daytime warming mostly rain
is expected during the day Thursday before the eastern zones see
rain changeover to snow Thursday night into Friday morning. Winds
will be another concern as mixing will be efficient within the CAA
regime and the adiabatic lapse rates realizing the 30 to 40kts of
northerly winds to mix throughout the day Thursday. Highs in the 30s
and low 40s can be expected Thursday and into Friday though winds
will be lower and just breezy.

Dry conditions return for the weekend with highs in the 40s Saturday
and Sunday.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 645 AM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

Echoes on radar moving into northeast ND are not likely to result
in much more than light sprinkles or very light rain. There are
lower clouds associated with these, which will bring an MVFR
layer through the TAF sites this morning, but only for an hour or
two. Winds will be the big story, increasing or remaining gusty
thru the day. May lose some of the gusts overnight, but they may
also linger due to a secondary push of cold advection.


ND...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for NDZ038-049-052.



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