Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
FXUS63 KFGF 150521

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1121 PM CST Sat Jan 14 2017

Issued at 1120 PM CST Sat Jan 14 2017

Continued to adjust temperatures downward slightly over some
areas. No other changes.

UPDATE Issued at 926 PM CST Sat Jan 14 2017

With clear skies and light winds temperatures in some areas close
to expected minimums so had to lower temperatures a few degrees.
No other changes.

UPDATE Issued at 710 PM CST Sat Jan 14 2017

No changes necessary.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 245 PM CST Sat Jan 14 2017

Temperatures will be the main forecast issue for the period.

Split flow aloft continues with nearly zonal flow over the
Northern Plains and the main upper low well to our south over Baja
California. The southern upper low will move into the Southern
Plains by tomorrow but not much else will change and we will still
have near zonal flow and tranquil conditions in our neck of the
woods. Temps this afternoon have been a bit slower to climb in
some areas as the inversion mixes out, but still getting above
zero. The center of the surface high will move off to the east
tonight, with light southwest winds and warm air advection
continuing. Model lows are all over the place with some dropping
down close to -10 in spots while others stay above zero. The warm
air advection will be offset by clear skies, and some spots will
radiate nicely while others will be kept up by weak downsloping.
Have lows at this point ranging from near -5 to just above zero.

The surface high will move further east and southwest winds will
continue to bring warm air advection, with some models having
925mb temps above zero. Inversion will not completely mix out, but
with the advection and plenty of sunshine we should be able to get
into the 20s for Sunday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 245 PM CST Sat Jan 14 2017

Sunday night into Monday... The zonal H5 flow pattern across
northcentral NOAM persists through the late weekend... but breaks
down early in the work week as H5 shortwave energy persistently
tracks across the intermountain west into the Great Plains states.
Temperatures continue to climb above seasonal averages under
increasing southerly warm advection.

Monday night into Tuesday... Models are in fair agreement on
developing a low pressure system into the Central Plains by Monday
morning and lifting that system into the Great Lakes through
Tuesday. The 12z NAM drags moisture and energy furthest to the
northwest (into west central MN)... while the 12z ECMWF has settled
very near the more consistent GFS solution...placing a surface low
pressure center over far northeast IL by 12z Tuesday. With that
trajectory... consensus forecasts just brush the southeast edge of
our FA... with clouds and light snow staying mainly along and
southeast of a BWP-DTL-BJI line. The Heavier snow and ice band is
expected across southeast SD into southern and central MN...
including the Twin Cities metro. Given the strong southern fetch of
this system... temperatures during the period should hold around 5
degrees above seasonal averages.

Wednesday into early Friday... following the Central Plains storm
system a fairly high amplitude H5 shortwave ridge builds into the
Central and Northern Plains for the mid to late week... with a deep
southerly warm air advection pattern expected to persist into Friday
morning. Even with extensive snowpack... temperatures across most
all of the area should warm to thaw point and above... resulting in
a true midwinter thaw. Expect slushy conditions during the day and a
return to ice during the nights.

Friday into Saturday... could see a mix of rain and snow with colder
and snowier conditions to follow.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1120 PM CST Sat Jan 14 2017

VFR through the period with no cigs anticipated.




AVIATION...Voelker is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.