Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 201436
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
936 AM CDT SAT AUG 20 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 923 AM CDT Sat Aug 20 2016

A few holes showing up in the otherwise extensive cloud shield
over FA this forenoon. Have bumped up max temp forecast over the
MN Lakes Country by a degree or two...and added the mention of an
isolated thunderstorm there as well. Convective temps over most of
the area should be in the mid 60s range this afternoon.

UPDATE Issued at 623 AM CDT Sat Aug 20 2016

Radar indicates showers weakening in the southern valley with
deformation zone expanding just east of the FA. Will trim AM PoPs
a bit and maintain afternoon chances with aforementioned low
convective temp induced showers possibilities.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 314 AM CDT Sat Aug 20 2016

Challenges for the forecast include pcpn placement in the south
and east along with a unseasonably cool max temp forecast. Light
rain ongoing in the far southern valley will slowly continue to
the east and gradual expand northward possibly into the BJI area
by early aftn. Additionally a secondary cold front with more of a
northerly wind is moving south across the FA this morning. An
isolated shower will be possible for the first half of the day
with this cold pool aloft and available moisture. Any breaks in
the clouds should quickly fill in with low convective temps.
Showalters remain positive so will maintain the showery pcpn. As a
result temps will be held in check with highs expected to be in
the mid to upper 60s.

Overnight should see skies begin to scatter out as CU diminish and
a sfc ridge axis traverses the FA bringing light winds. Went with
mid 40s for lows overnight in the cool spots in NW MN as return
flow appears to develop in the west keeping temps closer to 50 in
E ND.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 314 AM CDT Sat Aug 20 2016

By Sunday 500mb ridging and low level waa allow summer to return
to the Northern Plains with 00Z Monday 850mb temps rising into the
12 to 18C range. Further warming into the 20 to 25C range will
bring max temps into the 70s on Sunday and near 90 possible on
Monday with a slight chance for a thunderstorm Monday afternoon
in MN lakes country.

Timing of t-storms along front is for late Tuesday afternoon and
into the evening Red River valley and into Minnesota.  After this
frontal passage upper level trough moves overhead with the chance
for a few showers or thunderstorms, though coldest air aloft remains
just north of the border.   Upper trough exists late week with GFS a
bit stronger with next fast moving system on Saturday vs drier
ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 623 AM CDT Sat Aug 20 2016

800 to 1200 foot cigs cropping up at TAF sites this morning. Will
add tempo group with these cigs over the next 3 to 4 hours. By
aftn expect isolated showers with cigs around 5000ft then by
evening a scattering out of the CU and SKC overnight.


&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Gust
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK/Riddle
AVIATION...JK



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