Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KFGF 120457
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1157 PM CDT FRI APR 11 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CDT FRI APR 11 2014

AREA OF RAIN AS EXPECTED INTENSIFYING IN SOUTHEAST ND AND
SPREADING INTO WCNTRL MN. NARROW FINGER OF RAIN FARTHER NORTHWEST
WEST OF GRAND FORKS. ALL MODELS DO SHOW THIS AREA OF RAIN FARGO
AREA MOVING EAST AND EXITING SOUTHEAST ND TOWARD DAYBREAK AND
NARROW BAND OF PRECIP NORTHWEST INTO NE ND/NW MN AS THE NIGHT GOES
ON BUT PRECIP LIGHT. SNOW AREA IN CNTRL SASK STILL PROGGED TO
MOSTLY MOVE TOWARD DAUPHIN MB AND JUST NORTH OF WINNIPEG SATURDAY
SKIRTING THE FAR NORTH. TEMPS HAVE FALLEN BLO FREEZING IN LANGDON
WITH HIGH CLOUDS BUT SHOULD RECOVER A BIT AS THICKER CLOUDS MOVE
IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT FRI APR 11 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE SNOW/RAIN SYSTEM TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
MODELS HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT AND PREFER THE ECMWF.

FOR TONIGHT...DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT WILL DEVELOP ON THE 290K SFC. EXPECT RAIN TO DEVELOP IN THE
SOUTH WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE FAR NORTH CHANGING TO SNOW AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THERE COULD BE AN INCH OR 2 OF SNOW NEAR THE CANADIAN
BORDER BY SAT MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COLDER TO THE NORTH AND
WARMER SOUTH...WITH A GOOD THERMAL CONTRAST ACROSS THE AREA.

ON SATURDAY...THE SFC LOW WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA AND COLD
ADVECTION WILL BEGIN IN ALL AREAS BY LATE AFTERNOON. EXPECT MORE
RAIN/SNOW IN THE NORTH AND RAIN SOUTH. ANOTHER INCH OF SNOW IS
POSSIBLE IN THE FAR NORTH...ALTHOUGH GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR AND
LACK OF HIGH PRECIP RATES...ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ON ROADS SHOULD
NOT BE SIGNIFICANT...BUT SOMETHING TO MONITOR. WE WON/T MENTION
ANY FREEZING RAIN AT THIS POINT...BUT IF ENOUGH LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
CAN MOVE IN LATE FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING THEN SOME ICE IS POSSIBLE
NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S FAR NORTH
AND AROUND 60 FAR SOUTH AND COULD COOL DOWN DURING THE AFTERNOON
IN THE NORTH.

ON SAT NIGHT...COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES AND ANY PRECIP SHOULD
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS AFTER 06Z SUN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT FRI APR 11 2014

ON SUNDAY...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES
WITH A SHORTWAVE IN THE NW. CAN/T RULE OUT SOME CONVECTIVE SNOW
SHOWERS WITH VERY COLD AIR ALOFT AND BRISK NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO
AROUND 30 MPH...MAKING IT FEEL MUCH COLDER THAN IT HAS BEEN WITH
TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL.

ON MONDAY...SOME SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITHIN DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW
AND 850MB TEMPS AROUND -15C. TEMPS WILL BE COOL AND WELL BELOW
NORMAL FOR MID APRIL.

TUESDAY TO FRIDAY...THE NW 500MB FLOW DOMINATES INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR THE BELOW NORMAL TEMP TREND TO CONTINUE.
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES THRU WED PM INTO EARLY THURS WITH A CHC FOR
SOME RAIN OR SNOW. IN ITS WAKE A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD WILL KEEP
TEMPS IN THE 30S AND 40S.  SOME MODERATION IN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED BY
NEXT WEEKEND WITH 500MB RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE US
ENCROACHING ON THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CDT FRI APR 11 2014

MOS FCSTS FROM NAM/GFS WANTS TO GIVE MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT THRU
ALL DAY SATURDAY IN THE AREA AND NOT READY TO BUY IT NOW LOOKING
AT SATURATION DEFICITS WHICH SHOW 850 MB LAYER ONLY SATURATING IN
A SMALL BAND. THUS KEPT MOSTLY VFR WITH A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN
OVERNIGHT IN ERN ND AND SATURDAY IN BEMIDJI AREA. AS WINDS TURN
NORTHWEST BEHIND LOW SAT AFTN/EVE THIS IS WHEN MVFR CIGS HAVE A
BETTER CHC OF DEVELOPING COMING SOUTH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1010 PM CDT FRI APR 11 2014

THE MAINSTEM RED RIVER NORTH OF HALSTAD...ALONG WITH MINNESOTA
AND NORTH DAKOTA TRIBUTARIES DOWNSTREAM OF HALSTAD...CONTINUE TO
RESPOND TO THE SPRING SNOW MELT. MOST OF THE REMAINING SNOWPACK IS
RAPIDLY SHRINKING BUT SNOW CLOGGED DITCHES STILL NEED TO BE
FLUSHED IN NW MINNESOTA AND FRIDAY`S WARM WEATHER HELPED WITH SOME
EROSION BUT A WEEKEND COOL DOWN WILL SLOW THAT A BIT. SOME ICE
PASSED THROUGH CROOKSTON EARLIER TODAY CAUSING A QUICK SPIKE WHICH
HAS NOW SUBSIDED.

GRAFTON IS FLUCTUATING ABOVE MINOR FLOOD STAGE AND IS STILL EXPECTED
TO RISE ABOVE MODERATE STAGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  INCREASES AT
ROSEAU NECESSITATED AN UPGRADE TO MODERATE...BUT THIS IS EXPECTED TO
BE SHORTLIVED WITH DECREASING STAGES OVER THE WEEKEND.

AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS EFFECT OVER THE WEEKEND FOR WALSH
COUNTY. COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED THAT MANY COUNTY AND
TOWNSHIP ROADS REMAIN CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER ACROSS THE WARNED
AREA. SOME TOWNS INCLUDED IN THE WARNING ARE GRAFTON... MINTO...PARK
RIVER... ARDOCH...CONWAY...EDINBURG AND FORDVILLE.

A SNOW DRIFT IS DAMMING THE SNAKE RIVER UPSTREAM OF ALVARADO MN ON
COUNTY ROAD 66 AND HOLDING BACK WATER DESTINED FOR ALVARADO AND THUS
A WARNING FOR MODERATE FLOODING IS IN EFFECT FOR WHEN THE DAM BREAKS.



&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...JK/DK
AVIATION...RIDDLE
HYDROLOGY...WJB






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.