000
FXUS63 KFGF 091838
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1238 PM CST MON DEC 9 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CST MON DEC 9 2013

A FEW HIGH CLOUDS STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN FA NOW WITH
SOME WARMER SFC TEMPS UNDER THEM TO THE WEST. TEMPS AND WIND
CHILLS REMAIN THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE AND THESE ARE DEFINITELY A
CHALLENGE LOOKING AT UPSTREAM TEMPS. AS THINGS ARE GOING RIGHT NOW
WIND CHILLS WILL BE BORDERLINE OR SO THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2. AS THE CLOUDS TO
THE WEST MOVE IN WIND CHILLS WILL RISE OVER THE WESTERN FA.
PRETTY HARD TO NAIL DOWN WIND CHILL ADVISORY AREAS WHEN YOU GO IN
AND OUT OF CRITERIA OVER SHORT DURATIONS OF TIME. SINCE IT HAS
BEEN SO COLD SEE NO REASON TO KEEP A BORDERLINE ADVISORY FOR A
FEW MORE HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE WILL ALLOW THE WIND CHILL
ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 1 PM AND MAY ISSUE A NEW ONE WITH THE
AFTERNOON PACKAGE FOR THE NORTH FOR LATER TONIGHT. NOT SURE ANY
OF THE UPSTREAM LIGHT SNOW WILL REACH THE WESTERN FA THIS
AFTERNOON BUT WILL LEAVE THAT TIMING AS IS AS THEY ARE ONLY LOW
CHANCES ANYWAY. BETTER CHANCES FOR THE LIGHT SNOW SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST MON DEC 9 2013

500 MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SOME
PATCHY CLOUD COVER. COLD ADVECTION SFC-850 MB FOLLOWS THIS SYSTEM
TODAY...SO LOOK FOR COLDER TEMPS TODAY THAN ON SUNDAY WITH MOST OF
THE FCST AREA STAYING BELOW ZERO. WILL LET WIND CHILL ADV EXPIRE
AT 19Z BUT DAY SHIFT MAY NEED TO EXTEND IT BASED ON EXACT
WIND/TEMPS. WILL NOT EXTEND IT EAST INTO BJI-BDE-PKD AREAS ATTM
AFTER COORD WITH WFO DLH. SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF SUN TODAY AHD OF
CLOUD INCREASE FROM NEXT SYSTEM WHICH WILL DROP FROM CENTRAL
ALBERTA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ND-SOUTHEASTERN ND TONIGHT. 00Z MODELS
HAVE TRENDED A BIT FARTHER SOUTH AND A BIT LESS QPF THAN 24 HOURS
AGO. UPSTREAM RADARS IN ALBERTA AND OBS INDICATE SOME LIGHT SNOW
QUITE SIMILAR TO OUR LIGHT SNOW ON SUNDAY WHICH PRODUCED A FEW TENTHS.

WARMER AIR WILL TRY TO ADVANCE INTO WRN FCST AREA TONIGHT WITH
TEMPS FALLING IN THE FAR EAST AND THEN RISING SOME AS CLOUDS MOVE
IN. THUS TEMP CURVE TONIGHT TRICKY. WITH SFC LOW TRACKING FROM NE
MONTANA INTO NORTHEAST SD THE MAIN NORTHWEST WINDS (OVER 30 MPH)
WILL STAY WELL WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF OUR AREA THUS NO ISSUES WITH
BLOWING SNOW EXPECTED. SYSTEM EXITS TUESDAY...BUT CLOUDS MAY
PERSIST AHD OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE SOUTH INTO THE AREA
TUES NIGHT. LITTLE PRECIP EXPECTED WITH THIS WAVE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST MON DEC 9 2013

EXPECT ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR LATER TUES NIGHT INTO WED WITH
850 MB TEMPS IN THE -22 TO -26 RANGE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE QUICKLY THRU WED NIGHT
AND PER COORDINATION WITH WFO BIS/DLH ADDED LOW POPS FOR A LITTLE
-SN.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS AGREE THAT
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE BUT BECOME LESS AMPLIFIED AS THE
BROAD TROUGH THAT HAS PLAGUED THE NOAM CONTINENT MOVES INTO EASTERN
CANADA AND THE NORTH ATLANTIC. WEAK SHORT-WAVES WILL RESULT IN LOW
SNOW CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATION.

A MUCH MORE ROBUST SHORT-WAVE IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH FROM THE
NORTHWEST TERRITORIES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE GFS IS DEEPER...YET
CLOSES OFF ACROSS JAMES BAY WHEREAS THE ECMWF IS WEAKER...BUT DIGS A
CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE MN ARROWHEAD. SNOW CHANCES ARE HIGHER WITH THE
ECMWF...BUT IT IS ALSO CRAZY COLD. FORECAST HIGHS ON SUNDAY FROM THE
00 UTC ECMWF ARE AROUND 20 BELOW WHEREAS THE 18 UTC DGEX SHOWS HIGHS
IN THE 20S ABOVE ZERO. WITH A 40 TO 50 DEGREE SPREAD IN TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS EXTREMELY LOW AND WILL FOLLOW THE
WARMER ALL BLEND OUTPUT. PRIOR TO SUNDAY...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS ABOVE ZERO AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS BELOW ZERO. FOR SUNDAY AND BEYOND...ALL BETS ARE OFF UNTIL
MODELS CONVERGE ON A MORE LIKELY SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CST MON DEC 9 2013

THERE SHOULD BE A BAND OF MVFR CIGS AND SOME VSBY ISSUES WITH LIGHT
SNOW MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.
MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE MAINLY VFR CIGS THOUGH AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NW OVERNIGHT BEHIND ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WE WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR SOME POTENTIAL GUSTS AROUND 20KT NEAR KDVL BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BUT FOR NOW THINK THE STRONGER
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN JUST TO THE WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MNZ001>005-
     007>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...RIDDLE/ROGERS
AVIATION...DK