982
FXUS63 KFGF 151737
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1237 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a level 1 of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms for
  portions of west central Minnesota this afternoon. Hazards
  could include damaging wind gusts and hail. Threat though is
  dependent on location of front, and threat area may end up
  being farther south.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Still watching isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon
across parts of the area. Minimal thunderstorm activity has been
noted thus far, with only a few storms being capable of
producing lightning. Some areas will see brief clearing of
skies, with the most likely locations in eastern North Dakota.

UPDATE
Issued at 647 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

No major changes needed. Watching the next area of rain showers
and t-storms moving east and a fairly quick pace into DVL basin
with other scattered showers developing from Jamestown area
northeast. Look for a period of rain at most all areas at some
point today. Still questionable on northwest extent of severe wx
later today with HRRR taking wind shift line and stalling it out
around Alexandria.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 350 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

...Synopsis...

The 850 mb warm advection is the likely cause of t-storm
development 02z period in central into northeast ND just north
of a surface boundary and south of the 850 mb front. This warm
advection area moved into northwest MN after 06z and is moving
out. The sfc front is moving south, mostly propelled by cooler,
rain cooled air to the north. Rain amounts the past 12 hours
has been spotty with most areas incl Fargo and Grand Forks
getting nothing significant while pockets of 1+ inch rains
occurred in Roseau, Marshall, Lake of the Woods region and
spotty areas south of Harvey ND.

Let the severe t-storm watch go at 345 am for all areas. For
today will see the front drop south/southeast and likely be near
Wadena-Elbow Lake area early aftn. Short term models show
instability developing mid aftn just south of the fcst area more
along an axis from Duluth-Hibbing to Alexandria to Watertown SD
and south. The updated day 1 SPC outlook brushes far southeast
fcst area in marginal risk with slight risk close by. Feeling
that any severe threat is likely out of our cwa though, but will
mention as slight chc of strong/severe storm in messaging for
marginal outlook area per SPC until confidence of missing that
increases.


Meanwhile as a 500 mb low spinning in southeast BC
and northeast Washington state will slowly move east-southeast.
An area of 700 mb frontogenetic forcing early this morning east
into west central ND with an area of rain and t-storms. The
strongest forcing will end up in south central ND later this
morning but still would anticipate a period of showers and a few
t-storms moving east- southeast thru the area on the north side
of the sfc front. Highest pops midday into the aftn SE ND in the
forcing zone.

The actual 500 mb wave will move thru SD into southern MN
Wednesday giving higher chances for rain in the southern fcst
area and points south.

Late week into early next week shows the 500 mb pattern
remaining the same with upper waves moving thru giving chances
for showers and t-storms....one Friday and one Sunday. Severe
weather chances Friday look low, but long range machine learning progs
indicate some chance Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

MVFR ceilings prevail at all TAF sites this afternoon. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected through the
afternoon and evening, with a few strong to severe thunderstorms
possible to the southeast of KFAR. North to northeast winds
continue through the forecast period, increasing this afternoon
and evening. Gusts to near 25 knots are possible this evening
before tapering off after midnight. Winds are expected to
increase once more on Tuesday.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Lynch/Riddle
DISCUSSION...Riddle
AVIATION...Lynch