000
FXUS63 KFGF 162034
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
334 PM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES INCLUDE PRECIP CHANCES/PHASE AND WIND SPEED
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THEN PRECIP TIMING/LOCATION/
PHASE AND AMOUNTS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WILL FOLLOW HIGH RESOLUTION
RAP/HRRR FOR THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS AND THEN FOCUS ON A BLENDED
SOLUTION BETWEEN THE 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF. WILL IGNORE THE NAM GIVEN
ITS EXTREME NORTHERN SOLUTION WITH THE GEM SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF.

20 UTC RADAR DEPICTS A NARROW BAND OF PRECIP FROM LANGDON TO
CARRINGTON. STARTING TO SEE A FEW SFC REPORTS OF LIGHT SNOW AT
BRANDON MANITOBA AND ROLLA...BUT LATEST DVL LAPS SOUNDING STILL
SHOWING A DRY SFC TO 700 HPA DRY LAYER. WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO
SATURATE THE LOWER LEVELS...BUT STILL EXPECT SOME ACCUMULATING
SNOW MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN VALLEY INTO NORTHWEST
MN. BY MONDAY MORNING...NEW SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FROM 0.5 TO 1.5
STILL SEEM REASONABLE. THE POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR A SNOW/
FREEZING RAIN MIX AS WARMER/DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION LATER TONIGHT...BUT THINK ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE MINIMAL.
SOUTHERLY WINDS CURRENTLY GUSTING TO 30 TO 35 MPH ACROSS NORTHEAST
ND AND THIS CORRIDOR OF STRONGER WINDS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THIS
EVENING. STILL EXPECT SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING...ESPECIALLY IN
THE HALLOCK TO ROSEAU TO THIEF RIVER FALLS CORRIDOR. THE WORST
CONDITIONS WILL BE RATHER BRIEF GIVEN FORWARD SPEED OF THE
SNOW...BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH OBSERVATIONS CAREFULLY FOR A
POSSIBLE ADVISORY.

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...BREEZY SOUTHERLY WIND AND STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ELEVATED OVERNIGHT WITH MORNING
LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE WEST TO THE UPPER TEENS
ACROSS THE EAST.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE
TRACK OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME...THE SURFACE
LOW TRACK IS FROM NORTHERN MT MONDAY MORNING TO ALONG THE SD/NE
BORDER MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO IA BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE PAST
SEVERAL RUNS OF BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE MOVED THE MAIN PRECIP
SHIELD WITH THIS SYSTEM FARTHER SOUTH...WHICH SEEMS TO BE A RESULT
OF A WEAKER DOWNSTREAM RIDGE IN THE OVERALL LARGE-SCALE PATTERN.
PRECIP LIKELY TO HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON ONCE MID-LEVEL
THERMAL GRADIENT/FRONTOGENESIS BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. WARM TEMPERATURES...HOWEVER...WILL RESULT
IN A WINTRY MIX IF NOT PURE RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE DAY MAINLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 200 CORRIDOR WITH SNOW CHANCES FARTHER
NORTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY AFTERNOON LIKELY TO RANGE FROM 35
ACROSS THE NORTH TO NEAR 50 DEGREES ACROSS SOUTHEAST ND. PRECIP TO
SLOWLY CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING AS SUB FREEZING AIR IS ADVECTED SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW. COULD BE A PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIP/SLICK CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014

PRECIP SHOULD BE ALL SNOW BY TUESDAY MORNING...BUT QUESTIONS
REMAIN AS TO WHERE THE PRIMARY DEFORMATION SNOW AXIS WILL SET-UP.
GFS DEPICTS IT ALONG A LINE FROM SOUTHEAST OF PIERRE SD TO
ALEXANDRIA MN WHEREAS THE ECMWF IS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH. GIVEN
THESE LOCATIONS AND THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS...CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING THAT THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL MISS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR 3-4 PLUS INCHES
ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM FORMAN TO MAHNOMEN TO BAUDETTE.
MODEL INCONSISTENCIES AND TRENDS PRECLUDE THE NECESSITY FOR A
WATCH...BUT WILL KEEP SPS GOING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND REMOVE IT ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL
RISE INTO THE LOWER 30S.

SNOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ENTERS THE
RED RIVER VALLEY. CLOUDS SHOULD SLOWLY PUSH EAST AND BREAK UP
THROUGH THE DAY...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STAY IN THE LOWER 30S.

FOR WED NIGHT-SUN...THE PERIOD SHOULD BEGIN WITH TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL...COOLING WELL BELOW NORMAL BY NEXT SAT. THERE SHOULD BE
SOME SORT OF A WEAK HYBRID LOW AND THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW THU
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AND HAVE SOME LOWER POPS. A FAIRLY
STRONG COLD FRONT IS PROGGED BY ALL MODELS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
SHOULD BE COLD. HAVE STARTED THE TREND OF LOWERING TEMPS FOR SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 117 PM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 30KT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW MAY BRUSH THE FAR NORTH THIS EVENING.
MODELS INDICATE THE THREAT OF IFR CIGS AND/OR BR LATER TONIGHT INTO
TUE. HAVE STARTED THIS TREND WITH LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS INTO MVFR
RANGE MAINLY IN THE NORTH AND EAST LATER TONIGHT AS WINDS SHIFT MORE
WESTERLY AND DECREASE.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...DK