Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 080301
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1001 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

NO CHANGES MADE. SHORT TERM HAS GENERAL IDEA OF PRECIP REACHING
THE RRV TOWARD 12Z WHICH THE GRIDS HAVE NOW.  TEMPS OK.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

FAIR SKIES AND MID AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S WILL
STEADILY GIVE WAY TO A THIN SMOKE/HAZE THIS EVENING...AS A MORE
WESTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW TRACKS SMOKE THAT HAS BEEN POOLING IN
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL DAKOTAS BACK OVER THE RED RIVER BASIN.

LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...A COOL FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE AREA FROM SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA...PROVIDNG A
FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WEAK CONVERGENCE
AHEAD OFTHE FRONT SHOULD HELP POOL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE A BIT...
THOUGH A DEEP LOW LEVEL JET TRANSPORT IS NOT EXPECTED. THE 18Z
NAM12 GUIDANCE KEEP MOST SFC BASED FORCING ALG AND WEST OF A
MINOT-BISMARCK LINE THROUGH 03Z... WITH CONVECTION MOVING INTO
EASTERN ND AFTER 06Z...AND ACROSS THE RRV AROUND THE 12Z
TIMEFRAME. A WEAK H5 SHORTWAVE IS INDICATED AS THE SYSTEM DRAGS
ACROSS THE AREA EARLY ON WEDNESDAY...WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR
APPROACHING 35 KTS AND CAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG. MORNING
CONVECTION SHOULD PRESS ACROSS NORTHEN MN DURING THE FORENOON
...WITH ISOLATED SHOWER STILL POSSIBLE IN THE POSTFRONTAL
AFTERNOON PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

THURSDAY SHOULD BE GENERALLY FAIR AND SEASONABLY MILD...WITH
WINDS QUITE VARIABLE EARLY IN THE DAY AND THEN INCREASING FROM
THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE MID LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN /H7 TO H5/ SHOULD BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST AS THE H5 TROF
DIGS INTO THE SOOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. MEANWHILE...LOW LEVEL
FLOW /SFC TO H8/ SHOULD RENAIN SOUTHERLY...WITH CANADIAN WILDFIRE
SMOKE STAYING MAINLY NORTH OF THE CANAM BORDER.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON
EVOLUTION OF UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE START
OF THE PERIOD HAS A SPLIT FLOW REGIME WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND HIGH PLAINS. EXPECT A FEW
SHORT WAVES TO PROPAGATE THRU THE FLOW AND...COMBINED WITH HEATING
AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WILL SEE CHANCES INCREASE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STORMS EACH DAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE
SFC...ALONG WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...WILL KEEP
TEMPS ON THE WARMER SIDE...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 652 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

SCATTERED CIRRUS IN THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH INCREASING HIGH AND
THEN SOME MID CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE
INTO DVL REGION MID WEDNESDAY MORNING. BASED ON SHORT RANGE
CONVECTIVE MODELS KEPT VCTS AT DVL FOR 08/06Z-12Z PERIOD AND
ADDED VCTS TO GFK/FAR 08/12Z-17Z PERIOD AND TVF 08/15-19Z PERIOD.
WINDS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE TURNING MORE
WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST IN ERN ND WED MIDDAY-AFTN. NOT EXPECTING A
SHARP WIND SHIFT WITH FRONT AS WIND FIELD IS PRETTY WEAK BY THE
TIME IT REACHES THE RRV AND NW MN.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...GUST
LONG TERM...GUST/HOPKINS
AVIATION...RIDDLE


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