Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 012101
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
301 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST UTAH AND NORTHWEST
COLORADO AT THIS HOUR UNDER A LITTLE AREA OF JET RELATED LIFT.
STORMS HAVE BEEN WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE EAST AWAY FROM THE
FORCING. MEANWHILE LOTS OF SHALLOW CONVECTION IN THE AREA OF OLD
MOISTURE...BUT MUCH OF THIS IS TRAPPED UNDER A LITTLE CAPPING
INVERSION. EXPECT MORE STORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...MOVING EAST TOWARD THE PALMER DIVIDE
AREA THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE THE JET STREAK WILL PROGRESS
NORTHEAST...KEEPING STORMS CLIPPING THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS BUT
PROBABLY KEEPING THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.
THE DENVER AREA MAY WIND UP BEING IN BETWEEN ALL OF THIS. MADE A
FEW MORE MINOR CHANGES TO THE POPS...HIGHER IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS AND AREAS NEAR THE NORTHERN BORDER IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING DOWNSTREAM OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY.

WITH ALL THE CONVECTION UPSTREAM THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE SLOW TO
CLEAR OVERNIGHT. FOR WEDNESDAY THERE WILL BE FURTHER DRYING AND
WARMING ALOFT. IT WILL BE GETTING REALLY MARGINAL FOR CONVECTION
ON THE PLAINS. CURRENT FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY LOOKS FINE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER
THE NORTHEAST PLAINS OF COLORADO WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. A SURFACE LEE TROUGH WILL BE OVER EASTERN
COLORADO AS WELL. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO INCREASE AS
IT ADVECTS FM BAJA AND WRN MX INTO THE STATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. SOME OF THE MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAKENING TROPICAL SYSTEM JUST OFF BAJA MX 00Z FRIDAY. AT THIS
TIME...THE BEST THUNDERSTORMS COVERAGE WILL BE OVR THE MOUNTAINS.
THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
AN UPPER TROUGH DROPS OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THERE STILL
APPEARS TO BE A DECENT PLUME OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO
THE MOUNTAINS. DOWNSLOPE AND THE PRESENCE OF THE SFC TROUGH WL
LIMIT THE TSTMS COVERAGE OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. TEMPERATURES
ON FRIDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO 90. OVERALL THE COVERAGE WILL SCT OVR
THE MTNS...10-20 PERCENT COVERAGE OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. PW
VALUES WILL START TO INCREASE WHICH MAY ENHANCE THE RAIN POTENTIAL
WITH THE STORMS. AS THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES TO THE NORTH OF
COLORADO OVER THE WEEKEND...IT WILL COOL OFF A BIT WITH THE FLOW
BECOMING MORE WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY. AS A RESULT...LESS SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT BY SUNDAY AS IT GETS SHIFTED MORE TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THAT TIME AS
WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND SOUTH OF DENVER. STILL A
CHANCE OF A SHORT PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS TO 30 KNOTS. LESS
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE OR NO IMPACT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD



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