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000
FXUS65 KBOU 142308
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
508 PM MDT FRI MAR 14 2014

.AVIATION...HAVE BEEN TRACKING A WESTERLY PUSH OUT OF THE
FOOTHILLS OF BOULDER AND JEFFERSON COUNTY. BELIEVE THESE WEST
WINDS WILL AFFECT BJC AND DEN AT THE LEAST. STILL NOT POSITIVE IF
THEY WILL REACH SOUTH ENOUGH TO AFFECT APA. APA MAY STAY IN ITS
CURRENT SOUTHEAST CONFIGURATION AND THEN JUST SLOWLY TURN
SOUTHWEST INTO ITS DRAINAGE PATTERN OVERNIGHT. BJC WILL LIKELY
STAY WEST ALL NIGHT AND DEN BE WEST FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE
SETTLING INTO ITS SOUTHWEST DRAINAGE PATTERN FOR THE NIGHT. VFR
CIGS/VIS TO CONTINUE WITH SOME INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS AFTER 06Z. WINDS TO THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA 15-17Z WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHERLY AND
INCREASING TO 15 KTS AT LEAST WITH GUSTS 30-35 KTS POSSIBLE.
CEILINGS TO LOWER TO AROUND 7000 FEET AFTER 16Z WITH A CHANCE OF
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AS DISTURBANCE MOVES OVERHEAD. THOUGH VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...THERE IS A CHANCE OF CEILINGS AS LOW AS
5000 FEET AGL. SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE OUT QUICKLY AFTER 00Z SUNDAY
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS PREVAILING AND CLEARING SKIES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM MDT FRI MAR 14 2014/

SHORT TERM...SHORTWAVE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION WITH WEST
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WEAK UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO
GENERATING SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO ALONG WITH
A BIT OF LIGHTNING. ALL WELL SOUTH OF CFWA. SOME HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE BEGINNING TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH AHEAD OF AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. THIS TROUGH WILL BE
MOVING SOUTHEAST TOWARD COLORADO THIS EVENING WITH THE MODELS
SHOWING THE AXIS ACROSS WESTERN WYOMING INTO NORTHERN UTAH BY 06Z.
MOISTURE TO BEGINNING SPREADING INTO COLORADO DURING THE
EVENING...THOUGH CROSS SECTIONS INDICATING MOISTURE ABOVE MOUNTAIN
TOP. AFTER MIDNIGHT THE MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AS
THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS INTO WESTERN COLORADO WITH WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. INCREASING OROGRAPHICS AND MID LEVEL QG ASCENT ALONG WITH
LAPSE RATES AROUND 6 C/KM BETTER TO COMBINE TO GENERATE SOME SNOW
SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. ACCUMULATIONS TO
BE LIGHT...LESS THAN AN INCH. ON SATURDAY...THE TROUGH WILL MOVE
QUICKLY ACROSS COLORADO. LIFT...MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS
WILL PROVIDE FOR A GOOD SHOT OF SNOW INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
ALONG WITH SOME BLOWING SNOW. LATEST MODELS NOW SHOWING ROUGHLY 2
TO 4 INCHES FOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...LESS ACROSS ZONE 34.
THERE COULD BE A FEW LOCATIONS WITH AROUND 6 INCHES. ACROSS
PLAINS...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE MORNING... REACHING THE DENVER AREA
AROUND 16Z. THERE LOOKS TO BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE
BETWEEN 16Z AND 20Z...THOUGH MODELS INDICATING THE WINDS TO BE
MORE NORTHERLY DURING THIS PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS TO THEN PREVAIL
AFTER 20Z AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO KANSAS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
LIMITED...BUT LIFT FROM TROUGH AND LAPSE RATES AROUND 6 C/KM SHOULD
BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AFTER 15Z. BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON WHEN THE MAIN LIFT PASSES
OVERHEAD. LATEST MODELS GENERATE AROUND ONE HALF INCH OF
SNOWFALL...MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE WITH DOWNSLOPE WINDS PREVAILING. DON`T
THINK ANY ACCUMULATION WILL OCCUR DUE TO THE WARM GROUND. WINDS TO
INCREASE LATE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE TROUGH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 40
MPH POSSIBLE. WILL INCLUDE SOME BLOWING DUST ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN PLAINS AFTER 21Z. HIGHS LOOK TO REACH THE MID AND UPPER
40S AROUND NOON THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY.

LONG TERM...CROSS-SECTIONS INDICATE ENOUGH SHALLOW MOISTURE IN
THE MOUNTAINS TO KEEP SOME LIGHT SNOW IN THE HIGH COUNTRY FOR
SATURDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE JUST A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS EARLY
THEN INCREASING STABILITY AS MODERATE MID AND UPPER LEVEL QG
DESCENT DEVELOPS. AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE WEST WILL ALLOW FOR
THE DRY NORTHERLY FLOW TO CONTINUE OVER COLORADO THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
AS THE NEXT SYSTEM DROPS OUT THE NORTHWEST. AS IT DOES...A WEAK
MOUNTAIN WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE SUNDAY NIGHT...SO
GUSTY WINDS AGAIN IN AND NEAR THE FOOTHILLS. ANOTHER DRY AND MILD
DAY ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRUSH
ACROSS NORTHERN CO MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE A VERY STRONG SYSTEM SO EXPECT JUST SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY...MUCH COOLER TUESDAY WITH SLGT
CHC OF RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. MORE RIDGING WITH
DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

AVIATION...WINDS A BIT VARIABLE ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH
SOUTHERLY WINDS PREVAILED. WINDS TO BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST DURING
THE EVENING AS DRAINAGE PATTERN DEVELOPS. VFR TO CONTINUE WITH
SOME INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AFTER 06Z. WINDS TO
THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
AFTER 16Z WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHERLY AND INCREASING TO 15 KTS.
CEILINGS TO LOWER TO AROUND 7000 FEET AFTER 16Z WITH A CHANCE OF
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AS DISTURBANCE MOVES OVERHEAD. THOUGH VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...THERE IS A CHANCE OF CEILINGS AS LOW AS
5000 FEET AGL. WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...D-L
LONG TERM....COOPER
AVIATION...KRIEDERMAN