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000
FXUS65 KBOU 160327
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
927 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 927 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

ONLY MADE SOME COSMETIC CHANGES TO THE GRIDDED FORECASTS TO BRING
POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS DOWN TO CHANCE CATEGORY. EVENING MODEL RUNS
HAVE CONTINUED A TREND TOWARDS A DRIER FORECAST ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA. MOUNTAIN AREAS MAY STILL SEE A ROUND OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY LATER TONIGHT AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT THE PLAINS WILL
PROBABLY REMAIN DRY AS THE UPPER SHORT WAVE MOVES QUICKLY ACROSS
THE STATE. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE STILL LIKELY TO OCCUR AS THE
WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...POST-FRONTAL MOISTENING WILL NOT BE
SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE ANY SHOWERS AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

A BATCH OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST
AND SOUTH OF CWA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A BRIEF BIT OF CLEARING FOR
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ANOTHER BATCH OF CLOUDS WILL
MOVE INTO COLORADO LATER THIS EVENING FROM THE NORTHWEST AHEAD OF
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.

THE LATEST MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS NEXT
TROF AND NOW APPEARS WILL COME ACROSS WEAKER WITH THE BRUNT OF THE
PRECIP FURTHER SOUTH. LATEST DP/DT OF THE GFS HAS SHOWN A
CONTINUED WEAKER TROF OVER THE PAST 3 RUNS AND THE NAM/EUROPEAN
ARE SIMILAR. THIS WILL MEAN LESS CHANCES OF PRECIP OVER NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE
PALMER DIVIDE...SOUTH PARK AND SOUTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTIES. WILL
CONTINUE HIGHER POPS IN THESE AREAS BUT LOWER TO CHANCE POPS
FURTHER NORTH AND EAST.

THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SHALLOW UPSLOPE FLOW FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE BEST QG FORCING WILL ALSO GO SOUTH OF OUR CWA.
STILL POSSIBLE ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED OVER ZONES 36 AND 37 FOR
WED NIGHT BUT WAIT AND SEE IF MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND FURTHER
SOUTH. PRECIP TYPE ON THE PLAINS WILL BE A MIX RAIN/SNOW IN THE
EVENING AND MAY GO ALL SNOW LATE IN THE NIGHT. NOT A LOT OF COLD
AIR SO MAY HAVE TROUBLE CHANGING TO SNOW ON THE PLAINS.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS THE TROF
MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LINGERING SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN STATES THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY CREATING A RIDGE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY INCREASING
TEMPERATURES. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES INLAND IT WILL INCREASE
MOISTURE OVER COLORADO STARTING FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY
MORNING BRINGING SNOW TO THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS AND RAIN TO THE
PLAINS. WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE INCREASED TEMPERATURES
ON FRIDAY AND THIS BEING A WARMER SYSTEM THEN PREVIOUS I WILL KEEP
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE PLAINS AND A CHANCE FOR
THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING WITH A CHANCE OF
RAIN.

THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT SUNDAY MORNING AND BE REPLACED WITH
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND A SURFACE HIGH. WITH THESE FEATURES AND
EASTERLY TO SOUTH-EASTERLY FLOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS. ON MONDAY THE FLOW WILL TURN MORE SOUTHWEST SO CONDITIONS
WILL BE DRIER WITH TEMPERATURES GETTING ABOVE NORMAL TO START OUT
YOUR WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 927 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN HIGH THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY TOMORROW. WINDS
MAY REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST ALL NIGHT DUE TO THE
DECENT WESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
OVERNIGHT. NO AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DANKERS
SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...BOWEN/ENTREKIN
AVIATION...DANKERS