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000
FXUS65 KBOU 311813
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1213 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1213 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

ONLY SLIGHT CHANGES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. IT WAS NOT HARD TO
GENERATE WEAK CONVECTION IN THE BAND OF CLOUDS OVER US TODAY...AND
STRONGER SURFACE BASED CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS
WHERE THE EARLIER CLOUD DECK STARTED TO CLEAR. THIS SHOULD HAPPEN
FURTHER EAST AS WELL AS THE AFTERNOON GOES ON. WITH THIS HAPPENING
A LITTLE MORE THAN EXPECTED...THE CLOUD BAND BEING A LITTLE
FURTHER NORTH...AND TEMPERATURES IN THE SUNNY AREAS A LITTLE
WARMER...I DID NUDGE POPS UP A BIT MORE AND SPREAD THEM A LITTLE
FURTHER NORTH. STILL THINK THE NORTHERN BORDER AND NORTHEAST
CORNER WILL BE CAPPED. ALSO HUNG ON TO THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUD
COVER A LITTLE LONGER TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 353 AM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA WITH A COUPLE OF MINOR
DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. IN ADDITION AN AXIS OF SOMEWHAT
STRONGER WINDS AT 250 MB WILL RESIDE OVER THE AREA AS WELL. BEST
MOISTURE WILL BE IN THE MTNS AND SRN FOOTHILLS AND ACROSS THE
PLAMER DIVIDE. OVER NERN CO PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
DECREASE TO AROUND AN INCH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WITH LOWER VALUES
OVER THE PLAINS. WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE MTNS AND SRN
FOOTHILLS AND OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE
OVER MUCH OF THE URBAN CORRIDOR. OVER THE PLAINS WILL KEEP A DRY
FCST IN PLACE THRU TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
LOWER TODAY STILL COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN THE MTNS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70 AND OVER SOUTH PARK. AS FOR TEMPS READINGS
WILL BE WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE WHILE TEMPS OVER THE FAR NERN PLAINS RISE INTO THE MID
80S WHERE LESS CLOUD COVER WIL EXIST.

FOR TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS LINGER IN
THE MTNS...SRN FOOTHILLS AND ACROSS SOUTH PARK THIS EVENING WITH
ACTIVITY ENDING BY MIDNIGHT.  OVER NERN CO IT SHOULD BE DRY EXCEPT
FOR A SLIGHT CHC OF EARLY EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS NR THE FOOTHILLS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE PLAINS
WHILE THE AFTERNOON SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. THE PLUME OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS LOSING ITS
ORGANIZATION AS THE UPPER HIGH SETTLES SOUTHWARD OVER NORTHWEST
MEXICO. SOME MID- AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING
OVER THE STATE...BUT QUASI-GEOSTROPHIC DIAGNOSTICS OF THE VARIOUS
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE STATE WILL BE
UNDER WEAK SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS SHOULD
SUPPRESS MOST SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ON THE PLAINS AND KEEP SHOWERS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ADJACENT AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
CONTINUE A GRADUAL RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES. WINDS ALOFT
WILL REMAIN LIGHT UNDER THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
RIDGE...SO THE THREAT OF SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL CONTINUE WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. THIS WEAKLY FORCED AND TERRAIN
DRIVEN PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.

EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL SEE A SHIFT IN THE UPPER AIR PATTERN AS
MODELS CONTINUE SHOWING AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE STATE
FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL SPREAD SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND DROP TEMPERATURES BACK TO
ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1213 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON. CEILING HEIGHTS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 6000 TO 8000 FT
AGL RANGE...WHICH COULD INTERFERE WITH KDEN VISUAL APPROACHES AT
TIMES. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS IN A
HEAVIER SHOWER...BUT ONLY FOR A SHORT TIME. CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT
AS SHOWER ACTIVITY DIMINISHES BY 02Z. ON FRIDAY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE LESS SHOWER ACTIVITY THAN TODAY...BUT
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF GUSTY WINDS AND CEILINGS AT
HEIGHTS SIMILAR TO TODAYS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 353 AM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

THE BEST CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE
MOUNTAINS...SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS...PALMER DIVIDE AND ACROSS SOUTH
PARK. AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO COULD PRODUCE UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN
IN 45 MINUTES OR LESS. OVER MOST OF NORTHEAST COLORADO IT WILL BE
DRY EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO ONE HALF INCH POSSIBLE.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GIMMESTAD
SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...DANKERS
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD
HYDROLOGY...RPK