Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 230202
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
802 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 759 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

THERE IS STILL SOME CONVECTIVE CLOUDINESS AROUND RIGHT NOW OVER
THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA. IN FACT THERE AREA A FEW SHOWERS
AROUND OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PLAINS MOVING EASTWARD. WINDS
ARE TRYING TO GO ALL DRAINAGE IN MOST PLACES. THE CONVECTIVE
CLOUDINESS IS ON THE WAY OUT...BUT THERE IS A BIT OF UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS MOVING OUR WAY IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WILL
MAKE SOME MINOR CHANGES WITH POPS AND CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

THERE ARE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS...AND A FEW
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND CHEYENNE RIDGE.
EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO LINGER INTO EARLY
EVENING...THEN SKIES WILL CLEAR LATER THIS EVENING. AN UPPER RIDGE
WILL MOVE OVER THE STATE TONIGHT...ALONG WITH A DRYER AND MORE
STABLE AIRMASS. WITH WARMER AIR ALOFT...IT WILL BE A WARMER DAY
TOMORROW...WITH MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

STILL LOOKS LIKE A WARM END TO THE WORK WEEK AND FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEKEND. A STRONG WARM RIDGE WILL DOMINATE WEATHER ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN QUARTER OF THE COUNTRY AND COLORADO ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY COULD APPROACH OR
EXCEED DAYTIME RECORDS. SUNDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS A
STRONG UPPER TROUGH MAKES ITS WAY TOWARD THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
ROCKIES. MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING OVER COLORADO AS THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS BEGINS INCREASING IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES COULD
BE ALMOST 10 DEGREES COOLER ON SUNDAY. MONDAY WILL SEE ADDITIONAL
COOLING AND THE CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THE PLAINS WILL BE ALMOST 20 DEGREES COOLER
THAN SUNDAY. THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS BACK TO SHOWING HIGHER
AMPLITUDE THAN THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODEL SOLUTIONS. EACH OF THE
MODELS AGREE THAT THE PATTERN WILL BE VERY PROGRESSIVE...WITH THE
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE STATE VERY RAPIDLY. MOUNTAIN AREAS MAY
STILL SEE ABOUT 24 HOURS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY...BUT THE PLAINS WILL
ONLY GET 9-15 HOURS OF PRECIPITATION AS THE TROUGH AXIS SPEEDS
EASTWARD. MOUNTAIN AREAS COULD PICK UP A DECENT BATCH OF SNOW
WHILE PRECIPITATION ON THE PLAINS REMAINS IN LIQUID FORM.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE
STATE AS UPPER RIDGING RE-DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN U.S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 719 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

WEAK DRAINAGE WINDS HAVE ALREADY KICKED IN AT DIA. THE LOWER
CONVECTIVE CLOUDINESS SHOULD BE DISSIPATING IN THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO. NO CEILING ISSUES THE REST OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RJK
SHORT TERM...RTG
LONG TERM...DANKERS
AVIATION...RJK



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