Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 181717
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1117 AM MDT Fri Aug 18 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Saturday)
Issued at 1059 AM MDT Fri Aug 18 2017

There is minimal developing convective cloudiness over the
mountains and foothills south of I-70 including Park County. The
rest of the forecast area is clear. Precipitable water values are
down again from yesterday`s. Will leave the pops in over the
southwestern CWA otherwise it will be dry.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 330 AM MDT Fri Aug 18 2017

Flow aloft will turn more westerly then southwesterly for the
weekend while a lee-side surface trough forms, culminating in
warmer temperatures. Moisture will be increasing in the flow aloft
to allow convection mainly over the high terrain and Palmer
Divide, as well as over the far eastern plains where better low
level moisture will be found. Shear will be quite weak, so storms
will be short lived and likely only produce small hail if any and
gusty outflow winds.

A concern for Monday`s forecast will be cloud cover. Some hints of
some late night convection Sunday night may keep clouds over the
area. Also just an increase in overall moisture moving up from
the southwest and a shortwave pushing into the area later Monday may
provide enough lift for at least partly cloudy skies. The GFS is
the driest of all the models with the rest seeming to have at
least scattered clouds around. Otherwise, expecting less storm
coverage than the weekend and similar temperatures.

A cold front is then expected to push south across the area after
midnight into Tuesday morning, for weak upslope flow, cooler
temperatures and a slight increase in storm coverage. High surface
pressure will remain over the Great Plains Wednesday for continued
upslope southeasterly flow into the area, keeping temperatures
moderated and isolated to scattered convection. Another increase
in moisture in the flow aloft is expected Thursday and Friday as
an upper low off the CA coast moves inland turning flow more
southwesterly. Look for more shower and storm coverage and
keeping temperatures right around normal readings for this time of
year.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1059 AM MDT Fri Aug 18 2017

Weak and variable winds continue at DIA at this time. Many models
have easterly low level winds at the airport by 18Z. Will likely
hold off until 19Z to put a easterly component in the TAF`s winds.
There will be no ceiling issues and no precipitation the rest of
today and tonight.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJK
LONG TERM...Kriederman
AVIATION...RJK


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